thanks loved the game am just glad it worked out for me...people tend to over rate injuries imo.
Market just not giving the knicks any credit ,i dont mind.
Same thing goes for tonights milu/phila game ...am laughing, but you would think that phila will fall flat on their asses tonight , back to back and without embiid ..with that all said and done am thinking there is plenty of value with phila tonight. It opened at -5 now -5.5 and i see 6 ..that might be to good to be true ..ill wait and decide later on this one.
I dont know where your getting those stats at, but check out what teams do in the 4th q when in the lead after 3q on the road when playing in the 2nd game of back to backs....first game either home or away.
that is a lot of situations for that one thing to happen no?
am liking bky tonight my line -3.20 no value line wise, but it seems ind not to eff with one day rest 4-7 st up and 2-9 ats vs the east ..they could be tie in the east tonight if phila cant get it done vs milu ...both played the same amount of games.
Pacers just dont match up with 3 pts stats, thats all am going to say about that.
Total chicken here, screwing myself up. Made a good play on Mavericks vs Clippers going into the 4th. I saw the Clippers down by 5 and found out that in 8 games this season, down by more than 3 points at the end of the third quarter, the Clippers have lost all eight of those games. The best they have done is twice they lost by 4. It just so happened that was the line right then, so I bet Mavericks -4, 2 units. A few minutes left in the game and the line had moved to 8.5, and I went for the middle, betting 2 more units on Clippers +8. I should have stuck with the statistic and ignored my chicken feelings...
I give you credit , i have neither the time or patience to play in game stuff , hard to enough to just pick the game correctly. I am a big believer if you can't pick the game you can never pick in game situations correctly.
I did take phila small , they give milu too much credit but you need to break it down even more then they do. That line was just not right.
Funny but when bky was -3.5 and by game time ind was -2.5 , you think K Irving is worth 6 pts , not even close..Ind numbers have been getting worse and worse, i knew nets would score either way.
Did put a little on bky at that number.
Anyway, ill let you know a little later what am looking at tonight, thanks for your help.
kinda digging knicks tonight played two really hard games , right now sitting in the 8th seed....i dont think any team wants the 7-10 seeds...a lot of teams bunched in above the knicks ..this is one they have to have, with 2 days rest after this and phila up next. my line is knicks -5
Ill take the knicks and spilt my money up on the ml and -5.
I like the suns as well at -10 with is not WA so make it minus 10.5..ill wait on this one for now.My line suns 14.3
Yes I think that should work. The suns love to jerk around, but now that they have jerked too far in the wrong direction its very reasonable to assume that they will jerk back again. I should look this up, but I’m guessing a heavyweight like Townes loses a bit of his 3-point shooting touch on b2b games...
One possible problem that might not show up in the numbers yet: that Anthony Edwards kid seems to be coming into his own the last few games. A double digit win might be difficult if he is hot again tonight...
You know rooks , i think i fucked up on that knick game. Depending on how you adjust pts for players i didnt account for fournier coming back ...i might have adjusted two pts for him at best which wouldve made my line knicks -3 ....which then in reality would have made the magic a play.
but even with that rooks, suns out shot them and out rebounded them ...i doubt you get two 40 pt games by either one of those guys on back to back nights. Even if they shut one down completely , they arent going to get those points from anyone else. Now you get a very good team playing a really bad team back to back and from what i see minn hasnt won a game yet on b2b road games though they have done well at home.
Yeah that was going to be a cover until Fournier put in a floater and a 3 in the last few seconds. If the go-to guy had been Gordon instead of Fournier, easy cover for Knicks...
I did but for some reason my line on that game is way off
I am looking at port tonight ..i have dallas as only a 1.5 fav so 3.5 looks good and because port played last night am sure ill get 4 by game time...its a play if 4 is WA ..
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thanks loved the game am just glad it worked out for me...people tend to over rate injuries imo.
Market just not giving the knicks any credit ,i dont mind.
Same thing goes for tonights milu/phila game ...am laughing, but you would think that phila will fall flat on their asses tonight , back to back and without embiid ..with that all said and done am thinking there is plenty of value with phila tonight. It opened at -5 now -5.5 and i see 6 ..that might be to good to be true ..ill wait and decide later on this one.
I dont know where your getting those stats at, but check out what teams do in the 4th q when in the lead after 3q on the road when playing in the 2nd game of back to backs....first game either home or away.
season >= 2020 and rest = 0 and M3 > 0 and A
SU: 39-8 (11.51, 83.0%)
ATS: 42-5 (10.40, 89.4%) avg line: -1.1
that is a lot of situations for that one thing to happen no?
am liking bky tonight my line -3.20 no value line wise, but it seems ind not to eff with one day rest 4-7 st up and 2-9 ats vs the east ..they could be tie in the east tonight if phila cant get it done vs milu ...both played the same amount of games.
Pacers just dont match up with 3 pts stats, thats all am going to say about that.
now i see irving as out , i didnt see it was told and line drop...so no play on this game
Looks like the Raptors got all their guys back...I would think they would blow Pistons out...
5 games in 7. Nights: Bulls Heat Seventysixers and hou
What strikes me is the average score margin for that situation is 11.51.
Yikes, I screwed up — they got all their guys back except for Anunoby...
Plus they were totally rusty, including Lowry who has been playing steadily...
Man jets96, nice call on the Seventysixers. Actually, also nice call on the Nets except Kyrie knocked you off course.
Total chicken here, screwing myself up. Made a good play on Mavericks vs Clippers going into the 4th. I saw the Clippers down by 5 and found out that in 8 games this season, down by more than 3 points at the end of the third quarter, the Clippers have lost all eight of those games. The best they have done is twice they lost by 4. It just so happened that was the line right then, so I bet Mavericks -4, 2 units. A few minutes left in the game and the line had moved to 8.5, and I went for the middle, betting 2 more units on Clippers +8. I should have stuck with the statistic and ignored my chicken feelings...
I give you credit , i have neither the time or patience to play in game stuff , hard to enough to just pick the game correctly. I am a big believer if you can't pick the game you can never pick in game situations correctly.
I did take phila small , they give milu too much credit but you need to break it down even more then they do. That line was just not right.
Funny but when bky was -3.5 and by game time ind was -2.5 , you think K Irving is worth 6 pts , not even close..Ind numbers have been getting worse and worse, i knew nets would score either way.
Did put a little on bky at that number.
Anyway, ill let you know a little later what am looking at tonight, thanks for your help.
kinda digging knicks tonight played two really hard games , right now sitting in the 8th seed....i dont think any team wants the 7-10 seeds...a lot of teams bunched in above the knicks ..this is one they have to have, with 2 days rest after this and phila up next. my line is knicks -5
Ill take the knicks and spilt my money up on the ml and -5.
I like the suns as well at -10 with is not WA so make it minus 10.5..ill wait on this one for now.My line suns 14.3
Quickley not playing...
In addition to Payton...
Smart to split your money between ML and spread! I won’t mess with the Suns because they jerk around too much...
I lucked out on the knick game , suns line moved towards mine so i put a little on them. Today is another day.
My dog plays are much better then fav plays ,not sure why.
582 pho -11 ...my line -13.5 and then you add all the other extra tid bit into the mix I like my chances.
luck
Yes I think that should work. The suns love to jerk around, but now that they have jerked too far in the wrong direction its very reasonable to assume that they will jerk back again. I should look this up, but I’m guessing a heavyweight like Townes loses a bit of his 3-point shooting touch on b2b games...
One possible problem that might not show up in the numbers yet: that Anthony Edwards kid seems to be coming into his own the last few games. A double digit win might be difficult if he is hot again tonight...
You know rooks , i think i fucked up on that knick game. Depending on how you adjust pts for players i didnt account for fournier coming back ...i might have adjusted two pts for him at best which wouldve made my line knicks -3 ....which then in reality would have made the magic a play.
but even with that rooks, suns out shot them and out rebounded them ...i doubt you get two 40 pt games by either one of those guys on back to back nights. Even if they shut one down completely , they arent going to get those points from anyone else. Now you get a very good team playing a really bad team back to back and from what i see minn hasnt won a game yet on b2b road games though they have done well at home.
Yeah that was going to be a cover until Fournier put in a floater and a 3 in the last few seconds. If the go-to guy had been Gordon instead of Fournier, easy cover for Knicks...
Jets96, have you done any calculating on the Warriors/Grizzlies game? This looks to me like something the Grizzlies should dominate...
I did but for some reason my line on that game is way off
I am looking at port tonight ..i have dallas as only a 1.5 fav so 3.5 looks good and because port played last night am sure ill get 4 by game time...its a play if 4 is WA ..
I doubt curry or oubre plays, if thats the case, you may be right...i think the line is still a little high after the adjustments...
Culver questionable...
took por +3.5
and pho -11
OK that was just excellently done. If I had tailed you I could have made money instead of losing a bundle. Nice work!
thanks , wanna build me the model so i dont have to do it on paper everyday ? lol