Betting Talk

nba 20-21

jets96jets96 Senior Member

503 nyk -2 ....this team plays hard every night, this is a winnable game ...i dont know how the cavs feel about not playing to the middle of next week.

my line nyk -5.01

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Comments

  • rookrook Senior Member

    “Jarrett Allen, Taurean Prince unlikely to make Cavs debut Friday.” — Fantasy Labs NBA ...good hunting this season jets96!!

  • jets96jets96 Senior Member

    that game killed me....what a sloppy mess at the end...of course i didnt watch but reading the plays in the last couple of minutes killed my bet, T.O after T.O ...and they say the knicks coach is a beast.

    Just lying low banging out bets in my man cave....love two college hoops games today ...miss st +1 and Idaho +9


    Rook what have you been doing ...hope everyone is safe , new world ,thank god for sports or id be a nut case.

  • rookrook Senior Member

    I’m thinking about making a football bet today. Every year the Rams always find a way to fall short and I think today is their big day for falling short this season. I was thinking why not put all those disappointments to good use and make some money out of them? Can GB win at -6.5?

    So far I’m holding up, but going a bit stir crazy. Waiting for the vaccine in a few months and then I’ll go to Vegas or just somewhere besides where I am now.

  • jets96jets96 Senior Member

    crazy shit man , crazy shit....i love gb ....la and their number 1 dee.....i love the fact that green bay is better in the redzone on both sides of the ball....i did take balt +3 and bought the hook and took gb -6 which is what my local had and teased balt and gb....split up my money

  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited January 16

    Thanks jets96. It’s hard for me to believe the Rams will be able to function well in the cold, though they say there’s not going to be any crazy wind or precipitation. But do you know how that works time-wise? For instance, does the cold hit a west coast team hard at first and then they get used to it, or does the cold just kind wear a west coast team down as the game drags on?

  • rookrook Senior Member

    Whoops, never mind jets96...I put 2 units down on Gb money line -345...

  • rookrook Senior Member

    Luck!

  • jets96jets96 Senior Member

    well the market went from 6.5 to 7 and 7.5 thats a crazy big move on gb ...hope they are right

    am not so sure the cold will effect them at all , not a big believer in that ,those kids have been playing in the cold their whole lives... the big east tournament was going on one year,and as you know if they wanted to continue to the final they had to play 4 games in 4 days....i made a killing on those type of games, these kids have been playing basketball every single day their whole lives ....i doubt they were all that fatigued.

    luck

  • rookrook Senior Member

    They were right, you were right, and even I was (a little bit) right.

  • jets96jets96 Senior Member

    yo dude you around ??

  • jets96jets96 Senior Member

    Silently working my nba model with help from math guys ...i basically stopped handicapping non conf games and staying within conf till i get a hold on non conf stats. Ive been really killing it.

    As OT would say this is after the fact, but last night char game was a clear example of a dont make sense game,that i won. My line was char 4.10 and went off2 or 2.5 ....tor had basically jv players last night...i went over this game so different ways and still came to the same conclusion, char would seem to be the right side . Dont know what i was missing except maybe i didnt account correctly for players out for Tor.

    Anyway, tonight we have clev at Atl ...atl hasnt played well in bTb games, but that being said they weren't fav in many of them. Clev has beat atl twice already this year , t young is prob, am hoping they dont play him after playing 31 min last night which is less then his norm , but it is the 2nd of btb. Capela is hurting and is QUEST for the game which hurts big time with his 14 rb missing from the lineup ,okongwg hurting is well.

    K love coming back will get more min tonight and with Garland banged up and prob ,if he doesnt play cook will be fine.

    So with all the what ifs my line is Atl -2.70.


    Take clev +5.5

    luck

  • rookrook Senior Member

    Hey jets96, hope everything is good! Nice to see you’re back at kicking the NBA’s butt. The NBA is kicking my butt so far, but I’m still afloat because of a good Superbowl bet. I need about 8 units more and I’m even for the season on NBA. Sounds bad but beginning of February I was 21 units down on NBA. These past few days have seemed like the equivalent of February dog days of a normally scheduled season. So I am playing live, watching dogs that are winning and trying to determine if they are just head-faking or if they actually are going to cover at the end of the game. Are you posting here regular again, or this just a cameo appearance?

  • jets96jets96 Senior Member

    lol , it figures , love played 1 min though am not sure he wouldve made a difference in the long haul.

    Going into the 4th q i felt pretty good about the cavs , end of the 4th q not so much.

    I trust your NBA knowledge , basically thats why i asked if you are around. Ill start posting , is it asking too much for your input when i do ? Ill post games that i think i have an advantage playing but wont actually bet them up to game time. With covid and guys sittings ,i like to see whos playing before betting the game.


    Bucky hope you are doing well and staying safe.

  • jets96jets96 Senior Member

    Maybe the clippers were thinking about tonight , after getting their assess spanked in dec by dallas losing by 51 pts . Who knows what goes through a nba players mind night to night. I do know the clippers have played well off a loss and are 6-0 st up and 6-0 ats in BtB ...its all in the line though.

    I have this game lined lac -5.70 , they clearly havent played well going into the break while dallas have played great feb and into march.

    With not too many injury concerns tonight am leaning hard to the clippers to win this game.

    Ill be back later tonight ...rook , bucky anyone , any thoughts on this game.

  • jets96jets96 Senior Member

    How much weight does Sagarin have on line movement ...does he have the same as kenpom .

    The way i look at it ...dallas is 1-6 st up vs teams with the clippers winning % and above ,of course the one win was against the clippers.

  • rookrook Senior Member

    I was wondering if the Clippers were having a look-ahead game, but saw the next game was the Mavericks and wondered why would anybody look ahead to that? (Forgot about the drubbing the Mavericks gave the Clippers.) The weird thing is that last night the Clippers were drubbed by the Pelicans, and this kind of revenge thing could go on and on forever if the Clippers just happen to play the front end of a B2B before they next play the Pelicans. Then the Clippers will play soft against that front-end team, which will then drub the Clippers, and the Clippers will then have to revenge that drubbing, and so on and so on..

    But the problems for the Clippers are that they won’t have Beverley, they might not have Ibaka, and they might not even have Kawhi tonight. On the other hand, if both Kawhi and Ibaka wind up playing, that would be evidence that the Clippers were saving it up for tonight’s game. I read that Ibaka left in the first half last night because of back problems. If the back problems suddenly get better for tonight’s game that would indicate he must really want to win it.

    The Clippers blog writer doesn’t seem to be worried about going without Ibaka, saying that it will just be an opportunity for the Clippers to work on their small ball. But without Beverley and Ibaka, in my mind, the Clippers are starting to run seriously short on worker bees who can contribute on offense when called upon. On the other hand, the Mavericks blog writer is confident as well, because Porzingis seems to be rounding into shape a bit (he missed the previous game vs Clippers), and the team has been getting practice time and improving both offensively and defensively over the past few weeks.

  • jets96jets96 Senior Member

    Beverley hurts for sure , if it were pts alone i wouldnt worry at all, but when he is on the court the team is better.

    The line went against them on the open , ill wait and see closer to game time on who is in and who isnt.

    Love your thoughts. As you know am mostly numbers so when i get the other end of it ,i can only do better.


    Thank you

  • jets96jets96 Senior Member

    another interesting game with the lakers with two days rest playing gsw off a win last night against utah and the line is lake show -2.5 ,my line lakers -1.10

    these are the games that get me nervous lol pretty ballsy taking gsw , how many people are thinking they cant beat utah and lakers back to back ..

  • rookrook Senior Member

    I don’t see any overriding motivation factor in this game except that the Warriors are slightly more desperate to get a win in general, with Curry’s frustration at losing starting to boil over visibly recently. But the thing that bothers me about both your line and the books’ line is that I can’t imagine this as a close game. Unfortunately I also can’t imagine which team will be the one to win by 6 to 12 points...

  • rookrook Senior Member

    OK, I totally didn’t see such a blowout coming, but I did manage to make some money betting on the second half after discovering that when the Warriors are down by more than 3 at the half, on a b2b, they always (3 or 4 times this season) lose by double digits.

    You called the Clippers game perfect. They hardly noticed that Ibaka and Beverley weren’t there.

  • jets96jets96 Senior Member

    Luckily , I just took that clippers game , am glad i passed on the gsw game , wasnt sure about LJ ,heard reports he might play or may not play , wasnt staying up all night to find out ...live in new york . And if i saw your assessment of the lakers game i wouldve passed on game anyway.

    like just playing same conf game i tend to play more early games so i can get a read on players.

  • jets96jets96 Senior Member


  • jets96jets96 Senior Member

    And now that am thinking correctly i wouldnt have played the game anyway...my line was lak -1.10

  • rookrook Senior Member

    Factoid: in the past 2 seasons there have been 231 games played wherein a team with 0 rest went into halftime behind by more than 1 point. In 127 (roughly 55%) of those games, the team in that situation lost by double digits...

  • rookrook Senior Member

    Oops, never mind, that is misleading because so many of those half time scores are already blow-outs...

  • jets96jets96 Senior Member

    I was gonna say lol


    so what you thinking about phila/ny tonight NO WAY phila should be 7 pt fav over new york minus embiid.

    Even minus rose and payton out, quickley will fill in and score more.

    Knicks can play some def now.

  • rookrook Senior Member

    Knicks are b2b but are 50% ats for the season on b2b, having covered the last 2 of those. The good thing about the Knicks is nowadays they never seem to give up, as demonstrated against the Nets in last night’s game. That would go well with the Seventysixers who tend to play soft in the 4th if they have a lead. But I think it is specifically Embiid who plays soft so that might not apply tonight. Apparently Payton is out, for what that’s worth (I think he was already out last night). The Seventysixers blog was bragging about how great the bench has been lately, winning 3 games in a row by double digits mainly without Embiid.

    I like betting on the Knicks these days because of their new found dependability. I might not tonight because the Seventysixers are sometimes way better than I expect, and the Knicks might be more worn out than anybody realizes.

  • rookrook Senior Member

    I’m watching the Celtics vs Jazz game closely tonight because I suspect there will come a moment long before the game is over when one of the teams betrays the fact that their heart is just not in this game.

  • rookrook Senior Member

    All right. Time to put another notch on jets96’s pistol. Seventysixers lucky they even won.

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