Kings blog is saying The team did not have very much a chance to make the playoffs to begin with and now that Fox is out they should try to tank...I should probably make a big tail on your bet
Ok so let’s assume the Warriors win. According to killersports, they have won 30 times this season. Of those 30, 24 have been by more than 7 points. Only 6 have been by less than 6 points:
So the odds that the Warriors cover today maybe could be said to be 80% of 71.4% which is 57.12% of the time. If instead of looking at general wins by 7.5 favorites, we look at wins by the Warriors when they are favored by around -7.5, we get better results, because both times the Warriors were favored by that much, they won:
My model is flawed in a way, I use nba league avg for conf games ,it should be ,whatever conf game am looking at ,my comparisons should be on conf avg ,not nba avg.
Am sure next year you can help me out a bit with that.
I like to compare each team to league avg .
You know though the conf avg is almost the same as league avg.
What is the the eastern conf fg % avg, the west conf avg ,I don't think it's a major difference.
Well curry played but he looked a little peaked almost from the start, and totally worn out by the end. I was relieved the moneyline came through to tell the truth. There was a brief period of time when they caught up with Kings at the end of the first half and that was like the only minute or 2 of the game where I felt like they might actually cover the spread. Even when they got ahead in the second half it felt like they had to get lucky just hang on to a slim lead. If Holmes hadn’t played or buddy hadn’t gotten hot, the Warriors probably would have covered.
The Bucks are 5n7 tonight and they already looked a bit weary vs Rockets last night. Antetokoumnpo is out. BM is putting them at -1, which in my experience is what books do when they want to suck in losing bets from people who feel like its a great deal to not have to lay all sorts of points on a higher ranked team like the Bucks to beat the lowly Bulls...
Sorry to hear about the infection originalokie, hope that heals up soon. I’m a little jealous of your bet since it looks like both the Jazz best ball handlers (Conley, Mitchell) will be out and the Jazz might have a hard time getting organized and stabilized without them. And the Suns have been pretty serious lately.
Well I put a couple units on Clippers -6.5. Leonard is coming back, but when he comes back he is usually fresh and better rather than rusty and worse, so I think this will work...
That seems like a good bet. I was also looking at Suns vs Thunder, because the Thunder seem to have some big lapses to where beating them by 16 is easy. I don’t know if CP3 would be going hard against them for any type of resentment reasons. But today it looks like they might be maneuvering to put Dort and Pokujevski back on the court, indicating a desire to show some resistance. And the Suns are not as reliable about keeping the effort up regardless of opponent like the Knicks are. I still think if the Clippers had put out more competitive energy last night they would have beaten the Nuggets pretty solidly. So at this point in the season the problem isn’t finding the better team but finding the team that, today, right at this moment, actually gives a hoot.
Looks like the Knicks have covered the spread in 9 out their last 10 away games (but they were dogs or slight favorites in all of them as opposed to today)
Nets vs Bucks seems like a great live bet. If one of these teams wants the win badly and the other doesn’t the line should still stay fairly small at least until the team that wants it worse builds up a lead. Best case is if Nets want it more badly, because Bucks seem to have a pattern of pushing out to an initial big lead and then tapering off toward the end of a game.
Comments
That’s why you’re probably sane and me not so much
well milu is looking good and to think vsin said the sharps loved the cubs ..am sharper ...oops its not over yet fuck
Kings blog is saying The team did not have very much a chance to make the playoffs to begin with and now that Fox is out they should try to tank...I should probably make a big tail on your bet
I still would like to know if holmes going to play or not
Anyway my jets96 bet provided some relief! Yay!
Ok so let’s assume the Warriors win. According to killersports, they have won 30 times this season. Of those 30, 24 have been by more than 7 points. Only 6 have been by less than 6 points:
So 80% of Warriors wins cover a 7.5 point spread. How often does a season 2020 7.5 favorite typically win? (71.4% of the time):
So the odds that the Warriors cover today maybe could be said to be 80% of 71.4% which is 57.12% of the time. If instead of looking at general wins by 7.5 favorites, we look at wins by the Warriors when they are favored by around -7.5, we get better results, because both times the Warriors were favored by that much, they won:
If we expand the query to see how the Warriors do with lines between -3.5 and -9.5, we can find 3 losses at the -4 or -4.5 level:
They played 12 games in that range of line, and won 75% of them, not so far off from the generic record for all the teams together this season.
Crazy , I have both spread and ml.
Very very big parlay bet with gsw and milu
My model is flawed in a way, I use nba league avg for conf games ,it should be ,whatever conf game am looking at ,my comparisons should be on conf avg ,not nba avg.
Am sure next year you can help me out a bit with that.
I like to compare each team to league avg .
You know though the conf avg is almost the same as league avg.
What is the the eastern conf fg % avg, the west conf avg ,I don't think it's a major difference.
Ok too many cocktails go gsw
Holmes Will play with a minutes limit.
Now all we need is curry
Well curry played but he looked a little peaked almost from the start, and totally worn out by the end. I was relieved the moneyline came through to tell the truth. There was a brief period of time when they caught up with Kings at the end of the first half and that was like the only minute or 2 of the game where I felt like they might actually cover the spread. Even when they got ahead in the second half it felt like they had to get lucky just hang on to a slim lead. If Holmes hadn’t played or buddy hadn’t gotten hot, the Warriors probably would have covered.
Might take a couple days off after today! Luck. And thanks for the winner!
alway good to clear your head ....
549 mem +4
luck
574 nyk -3.5
luck
505 gsw -4
luck
The Bucks are 5n7 tonight and they already looked a bit weary vs Rockets last night. Antetokoumnpo is out. BM is putting them at -1, which in my experience is what books do when they want to suck in losing bets from people who feel like its a great deal to not have to lay all sorts of points on a higher ranked team like the Bucks to beat the lowly Bulls...
Gentlemen - Recovering from a serious infection after surgery - but I still look at posts - Today on Suns - 4
Keep it up guys
Sorry to hear about the infection originalokie, hope that heals up soon. I’m a little jealous of your bet since it looks like both the Jazz best ball handlers (Conley, Mitchell) will be out and the Jazz might have a hard time getting organized and stabilized without them. And the Suns have been pretty serious lately.
Yep, that was a no-sweat game. Thanks originalokie!
Since mid April there have been 19 games played by teams in a 5n7 situation. In those 19 games those teams went 15-4 ATS.
Since April 21, there have been 8 second game curse games and in those games the cursed team has gone 7-1 ATS.
Well I put a couple units on Clippers -6.5. Leonard is coming back, but when he comes back he is usually fresh and better rather than rusty and worse, so I think this will work...
i had big big ml parlay on char and gsw ....
now with atl winning last night and very hard games for the knicks coming up how big is this game.
553 nyk -10 -115 bm
luck
That seems like a good bet. I was also looking at Suns vs Thunder, because the Thunder seem to have some big lapses to where beating them by 16 is easy. I don’t know if CP3 would be going hard against them for any type of resentment reasons. But today it looks like they might be maneuvering to put Dort and Pokujevski back on the court, indicating a desire to show some resistance. And the Suns are not as reliable about keeping the effort up regardless of opponent like the Knicks are. I still think if the Clippers had put out more competitive energy last night they would have beaten the Nuggets pretty solidly. So at this point in the season the problem isn’t finding the better team but finding the team that, today, right at this moment, actually gives a hoot.
Looks like the Knicks have covered the spread in 9 out their last 10 away games (but they were dogs or slight favorites in all of them as opposed to today)
Nets vs Bucks seems like a great live bet. If one of these teams wants the win badly and the other doesn’t the line should still stay fairly small at least until the team that wants it worse builds up a lead. Best case is if Nets want it more badly, because Bucks seem to have a pattern of pushing out to an initial big lead and then tapering off toward the end of a game.
Thunder blog predicting a 32-point win by Suns...