Suns /Lakers line totally wrong if Davis shows up and plays at a high level. The line is probably wrong the other way if Davis doesn’t play at all or plays like a nincompoop. Maybe this line is just there as kind of a compromise between those two extremes? The first game of the series gave us an idea of what happens when Davis plays but doesn’t play well (lakers lose). It’s hard to imagine that whatever groin injury forced Davis out from the second half of previous game could become totally cured in a couple of days. Seems like there is some value in betting Suns moneyline or -5...
The 2 OT’s were mean to me — I had a nice middle with a unit on Nuggets pk and a unit on Trailblazers +4.5. Last second threes made by Lillard at end of regulation and 1st overtime extended the game instead of allowing me to collect, and then the Trailblazers fell apart so completely they couldn’t cover the +4.5...
These are all just watchers for me except maybe Clippers, but I am compromised on them because I just laid down 24 units on them to win the series, to partially offset the 52 I already laid down on the Mavericks...
I was looking forward to the Seventysixers giving the squirt a good spanking, but without Embiid, the squirt might go all the way to the conference finals.
i split ,i really thought that being back at the garden the knicks would play better, never had a chance ...and randle wants a big pay day , he never showed up ...but i did take Dallas so i dont feel bad ..
should i , and on my betting habits, i rarely put so much more on one game then another ..i do have the suns fav and if ad comes back he wont be the same ad ...what about paul ? ill take the suns now at +2.5 and buy the hook in case someone throws up a 3 at the buzzer ,its probably not mathematically smart but i like it will take 4 to beat me.
Yeah I guess I knew before I asked that you wouldn’t be doing any hammering. I’m thinking about doing some light hammering. But the Mavericks win last night opened up a complicated situation for me, and it’s hard for me to focus on anything else.
If i just sit on my hands and the Mavericks are able to win the series, I would basically end up with a pretty much of a full bankroll of 98 units, about what I started the season with. But if I just sit on my hands and the Clippers win the series, then I end up with about 55 units, a little more than half the original bankroll.
Or I could make another hedge bet on the Clippers that would guarantee that whoever won, I would end up with 80 units. Or another option I was thinking was a smaller hedge bet that would leave me with 90 units if the Mavs won and 66 units if the Clippers won. What do you think? Should I play it safe, play it like the wild man from Borneo, or play it like a guy ready to take a smaller risk for a smaller profit?
I think you’re right. Quoted from above, “If I was smart I would have left the series bet alone and watched and waited and hammered the Clippers bet last night or hammered the Suns bet yesterday when Davis went down.”
Well, now is my chance to leave that bet alone, and I can even still hammer the Suns tonight! OK, 17 more units on the Suns — hope I did all the math right...
OK done. Since I already had kind of given up on the Mavericks, I was actually able to watch the game last night. When that guy Doncic is right, he can really play. And the Clippers played just fine except that when they started to feel the pressure of being behind, their mistakes increased. But they also had some good plays to go along with their mistakes. So they basically erased a 10-point lead in the last 2 minutes of the game, a lead that Dallas had obtained primarily because of turnovers the Clippers committed in the 3rd quarter. Doncic was so exhausted by then he couldn’t buy a basket. He still kept finding open teammates who would then miss their shots. His neck seems to be better but who knows when it might go bad again? But if somebody watches the game, and sees him wincing and rubbing his shoulder/neck, they can bet the farm on the Clippers because Doncic is really the only Dallas player that can stand up to the Clippers at all.
Am not sure the clippers arent the right side tonight, so many trends leaning towards them and the market jumped on them..At least my lines tell me what side to lean towards, like i said , my model told me to take the nuggets which i did and you were spot on with the suns...
my line for tonight is clippers -4.10 so am taking them now
I have bky -3.00 ,if it were 4.5 id start looking at milu even now i should be looking at milu but because they nets play so well at home and milu really doesnt impress me , i took the nets on the ml ...
The Clippers should win but the Clippers are cursed. The curse is so bad I think it might have been danshan who cursed them. It will be good to watch the game and try to make out which way the chips are falling before BM does.
This is really interesting to me. Watching the two teams in the first round, my impression is that the Bucks will run right past the Nets tomorrow. Nets might have another gear they haven’t shown lately, and the Bucks could always still freeze up in the headlights, but the Nets I have watched in the first round will not even begin to stop the Bucks, while the Nets offense will hiccup occasionally enough to allow the Bucks to maintain a decent lead throughout the game.
I don’t think of James Harden as being a pushover or anything like that, but on the other hand, if Harden is the grittiest guy of your starting 5, I think the team might have a problem..
They were 1 point dogs against the Heat on May 15 (playoffs), and won that game by 14. Another one of those games during regular season was one that you and me collaborated on vs Knicks, which I believe Lopez was the only starter who played.
Comments
imo when, if i got this right, your in position NOT to lose units , its a no brainer .
Man 6ers killed me, killed me, but i never put all my eggs in one basket, i move them to others.
let me know who you like tonight ...back to the grind
Suns /Lakers line totally wrong if Davis shows up and plays at a high level. The line is probably wrong the other way if Davis doesn’t play at all or plays like a nincompoop. Maybe this line is just there as kind of a compromise between those two extremes? The first game of the series gave us an idea of what happens when Davis plays but doesn’t play well (lakers lose). It’s hard to imagine that whatever groin injury forced Davis out from the second half of previous game could become totally cured in a couple of days. Seems like there is some value in betting Suns moneyline or -5...
here are my lines forget bky...den -3.80 and the Suns -6.70 love both ...am with you on the suns ..gonna take them both on the ML AND SPREAD
thats with everyone playing so this line looks like AD is playing but like you said , how well is he going to play ..
Lakers got off to an early lead, but the Suns caught them at 10-10, there was a timeout and I tailed you both ML and and spread (-4.5, -195). Yay!
Nice job, lol, just reading about the games now, 2 ot's oh brother.
The 2 OT’s were mean to me — I had a nice middle with a unit on Nuggets pk and a unit on Trailblazers +4.5. Last second threes made by Lillard at end of regulation and 1st overtime extended the game instead of allowing me to collect, and then the Trailblazers fell apart so completely they couldn’t cover the +4.5...
well what you think about tonight ...
my line on knicks is exactly 1
my clippers line is 6.90 am liking dallas a little
These are all just watchers for me except maybe Clippers, but I am compromised on them because I just laid down 24 units on them to win the series, to partially offset the 52 I already laid down on the Mavericks...
Wizards getting off to decent start
532 nyk -1
luck
thanks rook luck
Bet 1/2 unit on Gifford to get 18.5 points/rebounds/assists
I was hoping Randle would play better today but so far no.
I was looking forward to the Seventysixers giving the squirt a good spanking, but without Embiid, the squirt might go all the way to the conference finals.
i split ,i really thought that being back at the garden the knicks would play better, never had a chance ...and randle wants a big pay day , he never showed up ...but i did take Dallas so i dont feel bad ..
How hard are you hammering the Suns today?
should i , and on my betting habits, i rarely put so much more on one game then another ..i do have the suns fav and if ad comes back he wont be the same ad ...what about paul ? ill take the suns now at +2.5 and buy the hook in case someone throws up a 3 at the buzzer ,its probably not mathematically smart but i like it will take 4 to beat me.
Yeah I guess I knew before I asked that you wouldn’t be doing any hammering. I’m thinking about doing some light hammering. But the Mavericks win last night opened up a complicated situation for me, and it’s hard for me to focus on anything else.
If i just sit on my hands and the Mavericks are able to win the series, I would basically end up with a pretty much of a full bankroll of 98 units, about what I started the season with. But if I just sit on my hands and the Clippers win the series, then I end up with about 55 units, a little more than half the original bankroll.
Or I could make another hedge bet on the Clippers that would guarantee that whoever won, I would end up with 80 units. Or another option I was thinking was a smaller hedge bet that would leave me with 90 units if the Mavs won and 66 units if the Clippers won. What do you think? Should I play it safe, play it like the wild man from Borneo, or play it like a guy ready to take a smaller risk for a smaller profit?
thats a lot of units to play with ,id hedge the clippers play and end up with 80 units ,thats what id do.
You will make the right decision either way.
i think den wins as well
I think you’re right. Quoted from above, “If I was smart I would have left the series bet alone and watched and waited and hammered the Clippers bet last night or hammered the Suns bet yesterday when Davis went down.”
Well, now is my chance to leave that bet alone, and I can even still hammer the Suns tonight! OK, 17 more units on the Suns — hope I did all the math right...
OK done. Since I already had kind of given up on the Mavericks, I was actually able to watch the game last night. When that guy Doncic is right, he can really play. And the Clippers played just fine except that when they started to feel the pressure of being behind, their mistakes increased. But they also had some good plays to go along with their mistakes. So they basically erased a 10-point lead in the last 2 minutes of the game, a lead that Dallas had obtained primarily because of turnovers the Clippers committed in the 3rd quarter. Doncic was so exhausted by then he couldn’t buy a basket. He still kept finding open teammates who would then miss their shots. His neck seems to be better but who knows when it might go bad again? But if somebody watches the game, and sees him wincing and rubbing his shoulder/neck, they can bet the farm on the Clippers because Doncic is really the only Dallas player that can stand up to the Clippers at all.
Am not sure the clippers arent the right side tonight, so many trends leaning towards them and the market jumped on them..At least my lines tell me what side to lean towards, like i said , my model told me to take the nuggets which i did and you were spot on with the suns...
my line for tonight is clippers -4.10 so am taking them now
I have bky -3.00 ,if it were 4.5 id start looking at milu even now i should be looking at milu but because they nets play so well at home and milu really doesnt impress me , i took the nets on the ml ...
The Clippers should win but the Clippers are cursed. The curse is so bad I think it might have been danshan who cursed them. It will be good to watch the game and try to make out which way the chips are falling before BM does.
This is really interesting to me. Watching the two teams in the first round, my impression is that the Bucks will run right past the Nets tomorrow. Nets might have another gear they haven’t shown lately, and the Bucks could always still freeze up in the headlights, but the Nets I have watched in the first round will not even begin to stop the Bucks, while the Nets offense will hiccup occasionally enough to allow the Bucks to maintain a decent lead throughout the game.
I don’t think of James Harden as being a pushover or anything like that, but on the other hand, if Harden is the grittiest guy of your starting 5, I think the team might have a problem..
you may and are usually right, the bucks are 0-4 ats the 4 times they have been dogs this year...hows that for a large sample size.
They were 1 point dogs against the Heat on May 15 (playoffs), and won that game by 14. Another one of those games during regular season was one that you and me collaborated on vs Knicks, which I believe Lopez was the only starter who played.