I will keep my powder dry until I see a clear pathway to units. If Bucks get a few minutes into the game maintaining a 4-10 point lead I’ll probably bet on them...if they falter at all I will assume they aren’t coming back and will try to be on the Nets.
This is one of those games where it seems like I’m the only person who thinks the Bucks will win this. Usually that’s a red flag indicating that I screwed up. But since I can’t figure out where it was that I screwed up I have to kind of stick to my guns.
Put in 4 units on Bucks (ranging +3 to +4.5)when Harden went out but it looks like the Bucks are going into freeze-up mode. If I felt I could trust them at all I would load up now that it’s half time but they could well freeze up for the entire game.
I am totally ticked off. The Bucks were obviously in full-on choke mode, so I bet the Nets at -11.5. Sure enough the Bucks just dug themselves deeper in the hole, missing shots and turning the ball over until with just a couple minutes left Budenholzer took out all his starters. This meant playing the other Antetokounmpo brother, who promptly turned the game into a shitshow. This made Nash nervous so Nash took out his starters and the Nets went from leading by 15 with a minute and a half left in the game to the 8-point win.
So one brother chokes the game up (along with his compadre Middleton), and the other one shitshows the bet going the other way.
I guess the reason the Bucks didn’t show any signs of caving during the Heat series was simply that the Heat never managed to pose a threat. But this Budenholzer guy, how many years has he had to train Giannis the importance of shot selection at critical times during the game? How many years has he had the opportunity to find ways to alleviate the damage Middleton does when he recedes into himself and goes on autopilot and starts turning the ball over and flipping up shots without even looking at the hoop? And did somebody in Milwaukee get paid money to teach Giannis to take the full ten seconds on every freethrow, and how much good has that done?
Maybe this is the moment of truth for the season for me, where I need to go all in on Nets moneyline next game...
Thoughts on LAC/DAL? I played a series bet after Game 5 and have LAC +142. I’m thinking I’ll just let it ride but considered hedging with some DAL +228.
Well caveat I’m a beginner when it comes to series bets. I just felt, deep in my gut, that the Mavericks were going to win this series, so I laid down a lot of units on it to match the strength of my conviction. Then I went through 3 or 4 games that changed my mind. Those were the 4th game of this series, when I was watching Doncic wince in pain as he tried to play. That was an easy bet on the Clippers that won me 2 units back from the series bet I had made. But the important thing to me was the question of why didn’t I save all those units on the series bet and then bet them on the Clippers during that game where Doncic was wincing in pain? Then there were another three games where Anthony Davis got hurt vs Suns, the next game where he didn’t play at all, and then the next game with his aborted comeback. 3 more times where a heavy load of units would have been better spent/bet for a relatively easy win. With such easy wins available, why was I sweating out such a large number of units on this crazy Clippers /Mavericks series that will probably depend on what side of the bed the players get out of this morning?
So my thoughts on the hedge would be how do you feel about that +142 bet? Are there other bets you’d much rather have your units on, or do you feel like the bet is just as rock solid as it’s going to get? I ended up hedging mainly because of those 4 games that I realized were where my money should have gone...
OK I don’t think there is a perfect bet today unless it comes during live play. I suspect Suns will beat, but I’m no more than 1 or 2 units sure. I need a nice 70% or over bet that I can put a good 20 units on. That will give me two shots at winning: bet 20 units and if that loses, bet 40 units. If each of the bets are 70% or over chance of winning, then the chance of losing both is 30% of 30% = 9%.
Can’t be sure of anything with Bucks/Nets. Bucks have history of bad first games in playoff series. Or maybe they will just keep on choking. I’m pretty sure though, that if they start out choking in tonight’s game, they won’t stop until at least next game, so there might be perfect bet opportunity there....
The trick with Bucks tonight will be to wait for ample evidence that they are intent on choking, but also make sure to pull the trigger on the bet before the live line gets beyond Nets -8...
I think the spread was -5.5 and now I’m kicking myself for going ML. It was because I still had the bad taste of that last game bet on Nets -10.5 in my mouth.
thats what i get for going against my line , which i normally dont do ,the market fucked me , and i out perform the market even though i dont give a fuck about the clv ...you tell me the nets were 2 pt fav and reverse line movement made milu -2 or 1.5 ...thats nuts and i made a mistake. Won't be my last.
The pressure on the Bucks to stop choking must be incredibly intense
A guy from the Bucks blog just wrote an article lambasting pretty much every person on the team as quitters. I don’t know if that kind of pressure pushes the Bucks to play better or causes them to button up and play worse. But if they choke the next 2 games away then they should provide a couple more perfect bets. Even if they don’t choke in game 3, there might be an opportunity to profit off that as well. This is the kind of situation a vulture like me thrives on, but it seems like a numbers guy like you might get hurt by it; the numbers are all just out the window until the Bucks normalize somehow.
I’m thinking the numbers should be a lot more useful for you in tonight’s games. My initial instinct is that without Conley and without having played for a while, the Jazz have a tough time vs the Clippers. Especially maybe in the 1st quarter or 1st half.
Then there’s the Seventysixers. They really looked like they had figured something out in the last few minutes of the first game. Or maybe the Hawks just relaxed a little too prematurely. I don’t like the squirt, but he deserves credit for some really good play. One thing is for sure, if there is a perfect bet today, I don’t think it can be made pre-game...
just looking at the box score for the one game the Hawks lost to the Knicks. Hawks were ahead by 13 at the half, then trailed by one at the end of three quarters. Lost by 9. So the Hawks haven’t really suffered a wire-to-wire blowout loss yet. I’m thinking that today, if there’s a perfect bet tonight, it might start with the Seventysixers taking a commanding lead right from the beginning of the game. That could sow some doubt into the squirt’s head, and affect his play to the point where a blowout would be possible.
its the old might-play-might-not-play run around for Embiid and Hunter today. I’ll just watch to see if the Seventysixers can get off to an early lead and i1f they do, how the squirt reacts...
Comments
Another of those 4 games was vs Hornets, was similar to the Knicks, except even Lopez didn’t play.
i actually watched a little of that game , LETS GO NETS
luck
I will keep my powder dry until I see a clear pathway to units. If Bucks get a few minutes into the game maintaining a 4-10 point lead I’ll probably bet on them...if they falter at all I will assume they aren’t coming back and will try to be on the Nets.
your costing me money dude lol
This is one of those games where it seems like I’m the only person who thinks the Bucks will win this. Usually that’s a red flag indicating that I screwed up. But since I can’t figure out where it was that I screwed up I have to kind of stick to my guns.
Put in 4 units on Bucks (ranging +3 to +4.5)when Harden went out but it looks like the Bucks are going into freeze-up mode. If I felt I could trust them at all I would load up now that it’s half time but they could well freeze up for the entire game.
I am totally ticked off. The Bucks were obviously in full-on choke mode, so I bet the Nets at -11.5. Sure enough the Bucks just dug themselves deeper in the hole, missing shots and turning the ball over until with just a couple minutes left Budenholzer took out all his starters. This meant playing the other Antetokounmpo brother, who promptly turned the game into a shitshow. This made Nash nervous so Nash took out his starters and the Nets went from leading by 15 with a minute and a half left in the game to the 8-point win.
So one brother chokes the game up (along with his compadre Middleton), and the other one shitshows the bet going the other way.
I guess the reason the Bucks didn’t show any signs of caving during the Heat series was simply that the Heat never managed to pose a threat. But this Budenholzer guy, how many years has he had to train Giannis the importance of shot selection at critical times during the game? How many years has he had the opportunity to find ways to alleviate the damage Middleton does when he recedes into himself and goes on autopilot and starts turning the ball over and flipping up shots without even looking at the hoop? And did somebody in Milwaukee get paid money to teach Giannis to take the full ten seconds on every freethrow, and how much good has that done?
Maybe this is the moment of truth for the season for me, where I need to go all in on Nets moneyline next game...
Have to wait on harden but my line went up a lot for one game , i have nets -4.40 next game fwiw , not sure how zig zag is doing this year.
Thoughts on LAC/DAL? I played a series bet after Game 5 and have LAC +142. I’m thinking I’ll just let it ride but considered hedging with some DAL +228.
rook is the expert on that stuff good luck
my line lac -5.20 ...line alone if that line goes to 7 am taking the mavs ..
Well caveat I’m a beginner when it comes to series bets. I just felt, deep in my gut, that the Mavericks were going to win this series, so I laid down a lot of units on it to match the strength of my conviction. Then I went through 3 or 4 games that changed my mind. Those were the 4th game of this series, when I was watching Doncic wince in pain as he tried to play. That was an easy bet on the Clippers that won me 2 units back from the series bet I had made. But the important thing to me was the question of why didn’t I save all those units on the series bet and then bet them on the Clippers during that game where Doncic was wincing in pain? Then there were another three games where Anthony Davis got hurt vs Suns, the next game where he didn’t play at all, and then the next game with his aborted comeback. 3 more times where a heavy load of units would have been better spent/bet for a relatively easy win. With such easy wins available, why was I sweating out such a large number of units on this crazy Clippers /Mavericks series that will probably depend on what side of the bed the players get out of this morning?
So my thoughts on the hedge would be how do you feel about that +142 bet? Are there other bets you’d much rather have your units on, or do you feel like the bet is just as rock solid as it’s going to get? I ended up hedging mainly because of those 4 games that I realized were where my money should have gone...
you lost me about 20 posts ago lol ...
That makes two of us. We need to find a perfect bet that I can hammer and you can tap.
i think ever bet i make is the perfect bet
Hawks -10.5 half unit about 7 mins left in game
573 dall +6.5
luck
Hardaway limps off the court, 1 unit on Clippers -6.5
OK I don’t think there is a perfect bet today unless it comes during live play. I suspect Suns will beat, but I’m no more than 1 or 2 units sure. I need a nice 70% or over bet that I can put a good 20 units on. That will give me two shots at winning: bet 20 units and if that loses, bet 40 units. If each of the bets are 70% or over chance of winning, then the chance of losing both is 30% of 30% = 9%.
Can’t be sure of anything with Bucks/Nets. Bucks have history of bad first games in playoff series. Or maybe they will just keep on choking. I’m pretty sure though, that if they start out choking in tonight’s game, they won’t stop until at least next game, so there might be perfect bet opportunity there....
The trick with Bucks tonight will be to wait for ample evidence that they are intent on choking, but also make sure to pull the trigger on the bet before the live line gets beyond Nets -8...
took ml parlay with the bucks and suns ...
2 mins left in 1st 21 units to win 10 Nets ML -213
I think the spread was -5.5 and now I’m kicking myself for going ML. It was because I still had the bad taste of that last game bet on Nets -10.5 in my mouth.
Near the end of the 1st quarter: Suns ML -157 3 units to win 2 units.
thats what i get for going against my line , which i normally dont do ,the market fucked me , and i out perform the market even though i dont give a fuck about the clv ...you tell me the nets were 2 pt fav and reverse line movement made milu -2 or 1.5 ...thats nuts and i made a mistake. Won't be my last.
The pressure on the Bucks to stop choking must be incredibly intense
A guy from the Bucks blog just wrote an article lambasting pretty much every person on the team as quitters. I don’t know if that kind of pressure pushes the Bucks to play better or causes them to button up and play worse. But if they choke the next 2 games away then they should provide a couple more perfect bets. Even if they don’t choke in game 3, there might be an opportunity to profit off that as well. This is the kind of situation a vulture like me thrives on, but it seems like a numbers guy like you might get hurt by it; the numbers are all just out the window until the Bucks normalize somehow.
I’m thinking the numbers should be a lot more useful for you in tonight’s games. My initial instinct is that without Conley and without having played for a while, the Jazz have a tough time vs the Clippers. Especially maybe in the 1st quarter or 1st half.
Then there’s the Seventysixers. They really looked like they had figured something out in the last few minutes of the first game. Or maybe the Hawks just relaxed a little too prematurely. I don’t like the squirt, but he deserves credit for some really good play. One thing is for sure, if there is a perfect bet today, I don’t think it can be made pre-game...
just looking at the box score for the one game the Hawks lost to the Knicks. Hawks were ahead by 13 at the half, then trailed by one at the end of three quarters. Lost by 9. So the Hawks haven’t really suffered a wire-to-wire blowout loss yet. I’m thinking that today, if there’s a perfect bet tonight, it might start with the Seventysixers taking a commanding lead right from the beginning of the game. That could sow some doubt into the squirt’s head, and affect his play to the point where a blowout would be possible.
want my lines ....and what should i bet ? clippers 1st q ...ill put in now ..or 1st half
OK I just put 2 units on Clippers +1 1st quarter -108
its the old might-play-might-not-play run around for Embiid and Hunter today. I’ll just watch to see if the Seventysixers can get off to an early lead and i1f they do, how the squirt reacts...
fwiw my lines were phila -5.10 and uta -2.00
i just took the clippers on your rec , lets get it