If you call up all the games this season with lines from -3.5 to -6.5 (-3.5,-4.-4.5,-5,-5.5,-6,-6.5) teams with those lines have gone straight up 272-119 (69.6%). So I’m figuring a generic chance of 70% to win tonight, maybe 70% plus because the Lakers are just too big for the Warriors. Plus looking back at the Warriors recent wins, the wins were gotten against teams that were weak and/or vs stronger teams that were just not going at it with a lot of energy.
Am glad you won that bet, but from a betting standpoint my line of -4 on the lakers normally would make me bet the gsw plus the inflated line , which i didnt for some reason.
Well I ran my query again after your post yesterday for lines between -2 and -6, and the SU rate went down to 61%. So after 100 bets like that you could expect 61 units won and 39 x 2.22 = 86 units lost. Long term bad bet, but luckily still likely to win in any one instance...
What really threw me about that game was that Lebron and Davis were pretty rusty when they first came back to playing during the regular season, and slowly were getting less rusty. Then, in the first half last night, they looked a lot rustier than when they first came back. If they had played last night even as well as they did the last game of the season they would have covered the spread easy. Maybe the Warriors playoff defense was more than they were ready to handle...
no reason to think that Porter can’t handle playoff pressure, but you never know until he starts playing. If he can’t deliver then how can the Nuggets win?
That’s all too far in the future for me, though, as the next game up is Heat vs Bucks. The classic pattern between these 2 teams is that Bucks jump to a daunting lead early on and the Heat chip slowly away at it for the entire game until the Bucks completely collapse in the 4th quarter. But maybe the Bucks are different this season? Can Holiday stop Giannis from attempting low-probability shots in the 4th? Maybe can he even get Middleton to not retreat into a shell during the 4th quarter? Or maybe he can get Lopez to improve his conditioning to the point where Lopez doesn’t brick all of his 3-pointers in the 4th? It might be that improving any one of those situations might lead to improvement of the other 2. Can Brynn Forbes be as clutch in the playoffs as he has during the regular season? What are your numbers telling you?
You got the better deal once again. I had to sweat over Heat +2.5 all the way through overtime. I should make a big bet on Nets but I’m too much of a wimp.
Comments
Way over estimated Wizards...
i like memphis actually but ill wait , did nothing except baseball yesterday ...might do the same today but right now gun to head mem on ml
OK, 13 units to win 6 units on Lakers ML (-222)
luck
luck
my lines for shit and giggles were mem -3.4 and lakers -4.00
If you call up all the games this season with lines from -3.5 to -6.5 (-3.5,-4.-4.5,-5,-5.5,-6,-6.5) teams with those lines have gone straight up 272-119 (69.6%). So I’m figuring a generic chance of 70% to win tonight, maybe 70% plus because the Lakers are just too big for the Warriors. Plus looking back at the Warriors recent wins, the wins were gotten against teams that were weak and/or vs stronger teams that were just not going at it with a lot of energy.
gsw beat pho , utah and mem and just lost n.o ...not sure thats a bad sos
Am glad you won that bet, but from a betting standpoint my line of -4 on the lakers normally would make me bet the gsw plus the inflated line , which i didnt for some reason.
Well I ran my query again after your post yesterday for lines between -2 and -6, and the SU rate went down to 61%. So after 100 bets like that you could expect 61 units won and 39 x 2.22 = 86 units lost. Long term bad bet, but luckily still likely to win in any one instance...
What really threw me about that game was that Lebron and Davis were pretty rusty when they first came back to playing during the regular season, and slowly were getting less rusty. Then, in the first half last night, they looked a lot rustier than when they first came back. If they had played last night even as well as they did the last game of the season they would have covered the spread easy. Maybe the Warriors playoff defense was more than they were ready to handle...
i wish i could watch but just cant ...ill watch the knicks and think of the the knicks that i watched in the 70's
576 wash -3.5
luck
Well we both won, but you got the better deal because I took them at -12.5...
Warriors +5.5 (6 mins left in game).
thats why i dont watch ...glad you got it
here we go , what we taking today
had a little reverse line move on den ....i liked the nuggets a lot but man this looks to easy to me
Usually when you like a team a lot they win by quite a few points.
no reason to think that Porter can’t handle playoff pressure, but you never know until he starts playing. If he can’t deliver then how can the Nuggets win?
That’s all too far in the future for me, though, as the next game up is Heat vs Bucks. The classic pattern between these 2 teams is that Bucks jump to a daunting lead early on and the Heat chip slowly away at it for the entire game until the Bucks completely collapse in the 4th quarter. But maybe the Bucks are different this season? Can Holiday stop Giannis from attempting low-probability shots in the 4th? Maybe can he even get Middleton to not retreat into a shell during the 4th quarter? Or maybe he can get Lopez to improve his conditioning to the point where Lopez doesn’t brick all of his 3-pointers in the 4th? It might be that improving any one of those situations might lead to improvement of the other 2. Can Brynn Forbes be as clutch in the playoffs as he has during the regular season? What are your numbers telling you?
right on in that game
though if i can get 6 with mia its a play, maybe ill buy the hook take 7 to beat me
OK Bucks -2 1st quarter 2 units
Omg I thought you liked mia, took them plus 6
I like Heat +6, but I thought the Bucks would jump out to an early lead.
these guys are all so nervous to start it’s really hard to see where exactly this is going
Well am happy
You got the better deal once again. I had to sweat over Heat +2.5 all the way through overtime. I should make a big bet on Nets but I’m too much of a wimp.
502 nyk -1.5
luck
What line you got? Should I hit the streets and see if I can get any cash for my 10-year-old car?
Line moved to PK at Wynn.
-1 right now at BM. Somebody has the nerve to disagree with you jets96! (Not me)