That Seventysixers game was an accident waiting to happen. That team has spent the past 2 or 3 years training itself to look for spots in games where Seventysixers can relax and play basketball on a cruise control type basis. They play hard the 1st quarter and build a lead that usually sustains itself for the rest of the game vs bad teams that aren’t particularly determined to win. Then they play hard at the end of the 4th quarter if any teams actually overcome the 1st quarter lead they built. But they’re not very careful about working hard for long periods of time between the 1st quarter and the 4th. That was their habit during the season and now in the playoffs that bad habit is so deeply trained into them that it’s biting them in the butt.
The Clippers game was pretty crazy. The first quarter was like an all star game with 3-pointers pouring into the basket from both sides. But unlike an all-star game, a lot of those shots were contested. But eventually, as the game wore on, players got tired and and the laws of probability kicked in and the three-pointers pretty much stopped being reliable for all the players except for two: Reggie Jackson and Bogdanovic. But Reggie was getting the ball more often from his teammates than Bogdanovic was, so the Clippers came out on top.
I’ll wait and look for the actual Bucks implosion, but your bet has got to be pretty solid. I feel like there’s three possible outcomes tonight and you win 2 of them: the Bucks implode and outright lose, or they hang on long enough to barely win a squeaker. The third possibility, that they actually dominate throughout the game, somehow doesn’t seem to fit their personality…
Now at -4.5 at BM. Wonder whose money moved the line like that..something about this whole situation is starting to make think the Bucks collapse tonight.
Boy did i screw that one up. I was feeling good at first because the Nets quickly got to 5 points behind, but then they suddenly implodedinstead of the Bucks, I think because the Nets were pretty worn out. Durant’s shots were shaky (an air ball 3) and they fouled Middleton on two of his 3-point shots giving him 5 freethrow points. I was betting on the Nets to play better than the Bucks, but I had no evidence that the Bucks were ready to help out. They weren’t doing anything particularly stupid. So, bad bet on my part.
I’m thinking there should be a good bet on the Seventysixers 1st quarter tomorrow if Embiid is healthy. Betting on them for the entire game seems more risky because the Hawks keep chipping away at them and they keep letting up. But those first few minutes Embiid just dominates the heck out of the game.
The Hawks won the 1st quarter in the first game of the series, when they first got the Seventysixers attention. In the last 4 games they haven’t come close in the 1st quarter. And today they really have the Seventysixers attention. Worries for me are if the Hawks have some special changes they make to try to avoid getting down early, and if the changes might work. Or, if Embiid/Seventysixers realize he plays poorly at the end of games partly because he uses up all his energy in the 1st quarter, so they suddenly decide for him to take it a little bit easier when the game starts tonight so conserve energy for later on. Anyway, I bet way more units than I should have on this, so I’m really hope I didn’t screw up again…
ok i split on games and i did not take the first q bet, only reason is if i were on atl from the get go, i wasnt hoping for them to go down in the 1st q ...it didnt make sense to me ,nothing against you , i think your a very sharp tool.Kinda like betting against myself type thing.
well what you think ...game seven what a cluster fuck this round has been for me.
Glad you left off, smart of you. I crapped out. My back to the wall now, I got to circle the wagons and look for bread-and-butter bets live. Game 7 could well be an opportunity as usually somebody collapses pretty hard. Nets won’t collapse but they might tire out if the Bucks don’t collapse soon enough in the game. I have to identify that point in a timely fashion if it happens and get some money back. I actually thought i was wiped out yesterday only to find out the Clippers won and I am only half wiped out. I’m keeping an open mind pre-game today so I can be ready to bet either way live according to player behavior, but in order for the Bucks not to fold over, they will need to take a step forward in their evolution as a team. It’s kind of hard to see how a team coached by Budenholzer could take a step forward in their evolution as a team. If Seventysixers end up playing Bucks, it would be the NBA re-make of Dumb and Dumber…
I think I’ve become Charles Barkley as far as picking winners is concerned. I’m actually glad for Middleton, though, that he didn’t go zombie at any point. And Holiday found his shot in the end.
Watched through entire Clippers game without betting. Pretty sure the Seventysixers will win but trying to figure out the best timing to bet on them tonight. Maybe after the Hawks make their final late game surge?
even though i thought phila would win , who wouldnt being home, i was going to make a big wager , basically a normal wager for me on phila ml ...but after doing my lines i felt like there is crazy value on atl ,and if i didnt trust my lines ,why do this at all, so i took atl +7 , and they won with young having a pretty bad day ...
My baseball this week was the bad beats week of the year for me. You couldnt make up this stuff. Icing on the cake with 1st and 2nd no outs in the yankees games and they pull off another triple play ...crazy
Have you made a line for Hawks vs Bucks? I’m thinking about going all in on that game moneyline Bucks -286. It would amount to 44 units to win 16 units. A loss would leave me with 4 units and I would be back to where I was 3 or 4 years ago, struggling to build a decent bankroll…I just got done reading through one of the April games between the teams, the only one where Holiday guarded Young (Young did very badly, but then again he was coming back from missing two games with a calf problem). The Bucks were playing away on 0 rest but they wanted to test themselves against a Hawks team that had just won 6 games in a row. On the other hand, the Hawks were missing Gallinari and Collins. The Hawks grabbed a one-point lead midway through the third quarter that lasted until the next possession, and that was the only lead they saw the entire game. Bucks won the game by 11 but spent a lot of the 4th with an upper double digit lead.
Bucks, dumb as they are, seem perfectly built for the Hawks with their length and defensive tough-guys Holiday and Tucker. If Huerter gets out of hand its hard to believe Tucker won’t be able to put a stop to him. Collins and Capela should struggle a bit with Antetokounmpo and Lopez. Holiday should hang with Young on the outside and then Young will encounter a lot of length when he tries to drive past Holiday and lob in the paint. Bogdanovic is pretty hobbled right now, so he might not require any special attention, and Middleton should be able to match up with him if Middleton doesn’t go zombie. Historically since 2010 playoff teams with -7 lines have won straight up 69% of the time, but since 2019 they have only won 55% of the time (actually a few of those recent wins were Hawks beating Seventysixers).
So I guess what i am wondering is if your line is -7 as well or more or less…
I can’t even figure out the clippers, even in the middle of the game, except for certain rare times when they get a certain determined look in all their eyes and at that point they are probably going to win against all odds, like vs Jazz. But that doesn’t happen often, they can look like crap all game and then you bet against them and they suddenly just start dominating. Or they can dominate for a long time and you bet on them, and vice versa you lose again. Another thing you can look for is Paul George, how he is playing, because with Kawhi out I don’t think its an option to reduce his playing time. If he is playing lousy and he can’t be taken out of the game, the Clippers will get dragged down with him.
Comments
That Seventysixers game was an accident waiting to happen. That team has spent the past 2 or 3 years training itself to look for spots in games where Seventysixers can relax and play basketball on a cruise control type basis. They play hard the 1st quarter and build a lead that usually sustains itself for the rest of the game vs bad teams that aren’t particularly determined to win. Then they play hard at the end of the 4th quarter if any teams actually overcome the 1st quarter lead they built. But they’re not very careful about working hard for long periods of time between the 1st quarter and the 4th. That was their habit during the season and now in the playoffs that bad habit is so deeply trained into them that it’s biting them in the butt.
The Clippers game was pretty crazy. The first quarter was like an all star game with 3-pointers pouring into the basket from both sides. But unlike an all-star game, a lot of those shots were contested. But eventually, as the game wore on, players got tired and and the laws of probability kicked in and the three-pointers pretty much stopped being reliable for all the players except for two: Reggie Jackson and Bogdanovic. But Reggie was getting the ball more often from his teammates than Bogdanovic was, so the Clippers came out on top.
well looking at tonight , that line seems crazy to me ...am probably wrong, but i just put in nets +5.5 and bought the hook.
I’ll wait and look for the actual Bucks implosion, but your bet has got to be pretty solid. I feel like there’s three possible outcomes tonight and you win 2 of them: the Bucks implode and outright lose, or they hang on long enough to barely win a squeaker. The third possibility, that they actually dominate throughout the game, somehow doesn’t seem to fit their personality…
LOCK LOL
I already lost ....the line went to 6 , cardinal rule number two, wait to bet dogs late, and fav early
kinda liked that 6 ,i guess it topped out and now on the way back down , see lots of 5s now as well
Now at -4.5 at BM. Wonder whose money moved the line like that..something about this whole situation is starting to make think the Bucks collapse tonight.
OK end of 3rd, Nets +10, bunch of units
Boy did i screw that one up. I was feeling good at first because the Nets quickly got to 5 points behind, but then they suddenly implodedinstead of the Bucks, I think because the Nets were pretty worn out. Durant’s shots were shaky (an air ball 3) and they fouled Middleton on two of his 3-point shots giving him 5 freethrow points. I was betting on the Nets to play better than the Bucks, but I had no evidence that the Bucks were ready to help out. They weren’t doing anything particularly stupid. So, bad bet on my part.
I’m thinking there should be a good bet on the Seventysixers 1st quarter tomorrow if Embiid is healthy. Betting on them for the entire game seems more risky because the Hawks keep chipping away at them and they keep letting up. But those first few minutes Embiid just dominates the heck out of the game.
ok ill take phila 1st qt
am also taking atl and the clipper fwiw
The Hawks won the 1st quarter in the first game of the series, when they first got the Seventysixers attention. In the last 4 games they haven’t come close in the 1st quarter. And today they really have the Seventysixers attention. Worries for me are if the Hawks have some special changes they make to try to avoid getting down early, and if the changes might work. Or, if Embiid/Seventysixers realize he plays poorly at the end of games partly because he uses up all his energy in the 1st quarter, so they suddenly decide for him to take it a little bit easier when the game starts tonight so conserve energy for later on. Anyway, I bet way more units than I should have on this, so I’m really hope I didn’t screw up again…
Luck!
ok i split on games and i did not take the first q bet, only reason is if i were on atl from the get go, i wasnt hoping for them to go down in the 1st q ...it didnt make sense to me ,nothing against you , i think your a very sharp tool.Kinda like betting against myself type thing.
well what you think ...game seven what a cluster fuck this round has been for me.
Glad you left off, smart of you. I crapped out. My back to the wall now, I got to circle the wagons and look for bread-and-butter bets live. Game 7 could well be an opportunity as usually somebody collapses pretty hard. Nets won’t collapse but they might tire out if the Bucks don’t collapse soon enough in the game. I have to identify that point in a timely fashion if it happens and get some money back. I actually thought i was wiped out yesterday only to find out the Clippers won and I am only half wiped out. I’m keeping an open mind pre-game today so I can be ready to bet either way live according to player behavior, but in order for the Bucks not to fold over, they will need to take a step forward in their evolution as a team. It’s kind of hard to see how a team coached by Budenholzer could take a step forward in their evolution as a team. If Seventysixers end up playing Bucks, it would be the NBA re-make of Dumb and Dumber…
Ok halftime bet on Nets +1 which since they lead by 6 is effectively Nets -5….lotsa units — luck!
Reservations because though Antetokounmpo is playing dumb, Middleton hasn’t really gone zombie. On the other hand, Holiday is pretty cold…
Also, 5 games the Nets have led at the half in this year’s playoffs and they have won all 5 games, 8 being their smallest margin…
I think I’ve become Charles Barkley as far as picking winners is concerned. I’m actually glad for Middleton, though, that he didn’t go zombie at any point. And Holiday found his shot in the end.
got my load on yesterday and didnt watch anything ,just hung out at my pool and enjoyed the day ...sorry about your bet ,watching this round was crazy
what are your thought about today
Watched through entire Clippers game without betting. Pretty sure the Seventysixers will win but trying to figure out the best timing to bet on them tonight. Maybe after the Hawks make their final late game surge?
Well looks like we won’t get the matchup between Dumb (Simmons) and Dumber (Antetokounmpo)…
even though i thought phila would win , who wouldnt being home, i was going to make a big wager , basically a normal wager for me on phila ml ...but after doing my lines i felt like there is crazy value on atl ,and if i didnt trust my lines ,why do this at all, so i took atl +7 , and they won with young having a pretty bad day ...
My baseball this week was the bad beats week of the year for me. You couldnt make up this stuff. Icing on the cake with 1st and 2nd no outs in the yankees games and they pull off another triple play ...crazy
Have you made a line for Hawks vs Bucks? I’m thinking about going all in on that game moneyline Bucks -286. It would amount to 44 units to win 16 units. A loss would leave me with 4 units and I would be back to where I was 3 or 4 years ago, struggling to build a decent bankroll…I just got done reading through one of the April games between the teams, the only one where Holiday guarded Young (Young did very badly, but then again he was coming back from missing two games with a calf problem). The Bucks were playing away on 0 rest but they wanted to test themselves against a Hawks team that had just won 6 games in a row. On the other hand, the Hawks were missing Gallinari and Collins. The Hawks grabbed a one-point lead midway through the third quarter that lasted until the next possession, and that was the only lead they saw the entire game. Bucks won the game by 11 but spent a lot of the 4th with an upper double digit lead.
Bucks, dumb as they are, seem perfectly built for the Hawks with their length and defensive tough-guys Holiday and Tucker. If Huerter gets out of hand its hard to believe Tucker won’t be able to put a stop to him. Collins and Capela should struggle a bit with Antetokounmpo and Lopez. Holiday should hang with Young on the outside and then Young will encounter a lot of length when he tries to drive past Holiday and lob in the paint. Bogdanovic is pretty hobbled right now, so he might not require any special attention, and Middleton should be able to match up with him if Middleton doesn’t go zombie. Historically since 2010 playoff teams with -7 lines have won straight up 69% of the time, but since 2019 they have only won 55% of the time (actually a few of those recent wins were Hawks beating Seventysixers).
So I guess what i am wondering is if your line is -7 as well or more or less…
ill do the line now...what you think about tonight
my line would be milu -4.10
I can’t even figure out the clippers, even in the middle of the game, except for certain rare times when they get a certain determined look in all their eyes and at that point they are probably going to win against all odds, like vs Jazz. But that doesn’t happen often, they can look like crap all game and then you bet against them and they suddenly just start dominating. Or they can dominate for a long time and you bet on them, and vice versa you lose again. Another thing you can look for is Paul George, how he is playing, because with Kawhi out I don’t think its an option to reduce his playing time. If he is playing lousy and he can’t be taken out of the game, the Clippers will get dragged down with him.
Wow your line says bet on the Hawks. My picks right now are like Ben Simmons shooting free throws — I’m too psyched out to even pick at a 50% rate…
but remember 1-3 pts off the closer is pretty much +ev but once it starts moving past that i tend to lay off
i put a small bet on clippers before and just seen the score ,so i dont feel too bad.
They held booker to 20 which was a good sign
the line is 8.5 now , thats crazy , i guess bog isnt playing