Betting Talk

danshan thread

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  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    lucky
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    For Rodgers haters small +EV prop its about 70-80 bucks but its +EV based on current odds

    https://fairlay.com/market/san-francisco-49ers-vs-green-bay-packers-1104/?referral=a599f4d5-c046-47db-a630-0fc0bcf2211f

    - - - Updated - - -
    jets96 wrote: »
    lucky

    you cant win in sports betting without a little luck, I dont care who you are or what you know!

    the variance monster is mighty he can kill godzilla in 1 single bad beat
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    BET
    1-20
    Hawks +9

    - - - Updated - - -

    BET
    Nets Under 222.5
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    BET
    Pistons +2
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    RECORD
    56-47-3
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    danny boy , i think you mentioned that bookmaker is the sharper book ....look at the total from yesterday on the no/mem game ,they closed 250 all the other books were around 242.5 , what you make of that , i cant you use that close for my records
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    jets96 wrote: »
    danny boy , i think you mentioned that bookmaker is the sharper book ....look at the total from yesterday on the no/mem game ,they closed 250 all the other books were around 242.5 , what you make of that , i cant you use that close for my records

    I dont think they actually had 250 it looks like it was 242.5 and not sure what that last minute jazz was but 242 seems right
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    BET
    1/22
    76ers +7

    - - - Updated - - -

    BET
    Clippers Under 235
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    those big over unders are still getting me, I am not sure what to do to about that, seems like something changes when they get over 234ish seems like the model loses something there
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    this place is a coffin, I am gonna go to twitter until this place picks up, I ask questions and make comments and get zero response. I am out for awhile, you guys can go back to dreaming about a couple of the old guys making picks!
  • dabbledonalockdabbledonalock Junior Member
    edited January 2020
    Hey very interested in your thoughts and would love to continue to follow. What is your twitter handle? Thank
    You!
  • coolmilcoolmil Member
    edited January 2020
    A lot of good posters have come and gone
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    Hey very interested in your thoughts and would love to continue to follow. What is your twitter handle? Thank
    You!

    email forum admin and they will give you my twitter or email and you can contact me. They dont allow you to share contact info directly on the forum. Admin you have my permission to share my contact info with any member here.
    thanks!

    - - - Updated - - -
    coolmil wrote: »
    A lot of good posters have come and gone

    add me to the list of posters who have gone, of course I will check in but trying to get convos going is a dead end here.
  • dabbledonalockdabbledonalock Junior Member
    edited January 2020
    Thank you, found you but your DM is disallowed. Anyway you can open it up for a little bit?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    I opened DMs from anyone, you can send me a message now
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    Dan, you should still post your plays though.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    I doubt anyone is looking at my plays besides you brother, LOL
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    love the clippers tonight , not sure if young will play for atl ...waiting
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    the whole Clipper team is out. you like the Clippers because on a model with all healthy they look awesome but without beverly and leonard they are not even a 2nd tier team. this could be a good example of where models dont do a game justice I got kawhi as a 4 in a matchup against the Hawks I got beverly as a 1 in any game and out together as a 6 I got Clippers as a -9 so subtract 6 and I got -3 now if Young is out I would have -4.5 for Young so that would put the Clippers at -7.5 - - - Updated - - - If Young was out I would take the Hawks with points cause its a toss up what happens not easy to predict so I like points if Young is in I would like the Hawks because I think 3.5 4 on the road for a beat up Clippers team is bad news. Plus ATL is like Vegas lots of NBA guys connected to ATL and curfews get lost in ATL
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    Right now I put a taste on Clippers hoping Young is out and I can get some serious value on the Clippers at 3
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    danshan wrote: »
    I doubt anyone is looking at my plays besides you brother, LOL
    Not so. I was considering tailing you if you maintained 55% or better...
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    I am hoping for >53.5% to be on track with my expected ROI from CLV.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    I totally disagree with your figures , i do agree with the point your trying to make though.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    you think my figures are off?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    and Young is out and I got some clipper at 3.5 not bad! I also am looking good on the under now - - - Updated - - - BET Clippers -5
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    Adams might not play tonight! Might be some love against the Thunder
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    I really like the XFL, he learned from that 1st mess and this is a good league.
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    Bucks first quarter, -3 (2 units)
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    has anyone heard or seen my new app yet

    you can place straight bets at a better price than pinnacle and you can place up to a 5 team parlay at better than pinnacle prices

    please check it out and give me some feedback I really need it

    www.jgexchange.com/parlay.html

    - - - Updated - - -

    it is connected to fairlay.com and the actual bets are placed on fairlay.com the app only creates the market and sends you there to bet

    I am planning on adding injury info, line history, and maybe some other cool data if it takes off
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    Dan - is there a reason why a play I posted on this forum and only here now being broadcasted across twitter by Fairlay?
    danshan wrote: »
    has anyone heard or seen my new app yet

    you can place straight bets at a better price than pinnacle and you can place up to a 5 team parlay at better than pinnacle prices

    please check it out and give me some feedback I really need it

    www.jgexchange.com/parlay.html

    - - - Updated - - -

    it is connected to fairlay.com and the actual bets are placed on fairlay.com the app only creates the market and sends you there to bet

    I am planning on adding injury info, line history, and maybe some other cool data if it takes off

    - - - Updated - - -

    Admin - is this site now linked with fairlay and twitter?
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