I just flat out do not believe a person can pick a few games consistently long term over a decent sample size as winners better than the entire betting market. I just dont believe it
my clv on the knicks last night was good ,they say late moves are the best moves, you say they mean nothing, a full point , personally a point and half ....i still say and will always say, id rather win the game then worry about clv.
My strategy in the past was to bet late because the majority of my bets, in all sports are dogs...public are favorite betters so in the long run i should pick up some value. I started to hang some overnighters up , like last night wis bet , i posted +8 fwiw for me was a good number, i guess not, its 9 and 9.5 now. I actually put a little more on it this morning.
Lem Banker who i met and talked to a few times through a friend that was a suit at the horseshoe always told me , bet a favorite early, and dogs late , i kinda never forgot that , I lost my way over the years and then found it again just to find myself wondering when was the best time to bet a game. I think OT said, if you like the number you get ,bet it ,don't wait for the market.
I just believe I (BOLD I) cannot predict game winners all I can get close to predicting is the closing line. that for me is my only hope of winning is to find value by trying to predict what the line will do.
apples to apples really but my picks have absolutely nothing to do with me thinking the team wont score tonight, or they are wearing tighter headbands so they should have a tougher time shooting. its me saying 225 is wrong and I think it moves toward 220 and hope it gets closer to 220 so I can get some implied probability out of the closing line
When you are making picks, you are not predicting which way the line is going to move. You are making a pick because you think a team is better than the number. The reason the line moves is because the market agrees with you. The market figures things out and the line moves because you were ahead of the curve.
Everybody is picking games off of stats. If they are not drilling down on stats like a modeler, they are at the very least picking games off scores which are stats. They also throw in some other ideas. If these ideas are valid, the line moves in their favor because the market agrees.
People that generally are ahead of the curve for whatever reason they are betting get CLV.
Now if you are better than the market, you do not care too much if the line moves against you because you disagree with the market. It is of no concern on any one game. It is a big concern if it is happening consistently because the market gets thing right. So nobody with an edge is not going to get CLV.
But a person with an edge can outperform expected results using a CLV estimate. That is why they will tell you that CLV is not what you make it out to be.
first thing is probably right if someone is an advanced handicapper or modeler they are making picks that the line will follow. AKA value at the number they take it at. buy gold at 1200 and the price moves to 1400 that is a value buy
second thing being better than the market. I dont think long term over a large enough sample size someone could say they won and did not beat the market. I also would say that the expected proft (CLV) is very close to the actual value.
its like pressure on the line say example
Frank bets $100 a game and he is really good at it and he wins, in most cases he will grow and next season he bets $400 a game and so on and so on UNTIL the market catches up to him or he reaches limits. When he reaches limits and has a seasoned record now the market will start to reflect his opinion with weight.
Frank is now making a bigger impact on the line and will by default see CLV on his picks.
now once the Market has a good number of Frank's the market becomes sharper and the number of Franks who get CLV drops as one Frank moves it faster.
there are 3 ways to "predict" someones probability of future success
1 CLV obvious the markets are efficient
2 Closing line prediction, a person that can accurately predict what the closing lines will be
3 market confirmation if the market generally moves in his direction at a high rate he can assume he is on the "right side" of bets
winning today is great but being able to know when and or if that edge is gone is the ultimate key. you need to know before you are broke that your method is still a winning method or else you are just holding the books money until they sharpen up and take it back.
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Very few people stop betting when they are winning skilled or not. the books depend on this because they wait for the luck to run out if just lucky or they get sharper and outsharp the sharp. Our only goal is to know if we will win tomorrow, that truly is the key without this the book will eventually win
the few reasons that most bettors hate what I say is
its a pain in the ass to calculate CLV on each bet
its hard to get CLV at a consistent level to make it seem worthy of the effort
its hard to face the reality of 1 to 2% profit over a zillion bets
its hard to say I got 4% clv on this bet and bet it and lose that bet
these things make CLV less fun and this is probably why most just say, "fuck that pick winners"
That is only one way to predict because #2 does not exist and #3 is #1.
And as we know, if you are sharp, you will have CLV because you are quicker to recognize value than the average bear.
Your statement was that you did not believe anybody could possibly win based on matchup analysis and stuff that did not come from a computer model. That has nothing to do with the subject. That is just a belief that you have.
The fact of the matter is that it does not take long to know you do not have an edge any longer because the opportunities start to disappear. Week 1 of the college football season used to be the week I had the most bets. It is now the week I have the least bets because the numbers are a lot better. I don't need to check my CLV to know I missed it on a game because the game does not play out like you expect. If you are betting on something and it does not happen like you thought, you were not sharp. It is immediate feedback.
Now if you are a modeler, you will have a hell of a time figuring this out.
That is only one way to predict because #2 does not exist and #3 is #1.
And as we know, if you are sharp, you will have CLV because you are quicker to recognize value than the average bear.
Your statement was that you did not believe anybody could possibly win based on matchup analysis and stuff that did not come from a computer model. That has nothing to do with the subject. That is just a belief that you have.
The fact of the matter is that it does not take long to know you do not have an edge any longer because the opportunities start to disappear. Week 1 of the college football season used to be the week I had the most bets. It is now the week I have the least bets because the numbers are a lot better. I don't need to check my CLV to know I missed it on a game because the game does not play out like you expect. If you are betting on something and it does not happen like you thought, you were not sharp. It is immediate feedback.
Now if you are a modeler, you will have a hell of a time figuring this out.
you will miss opportunities that you had skill on because of streaks of losses
you will stick with bad bets because of streaks.
wins and losses mean nothing and should not even be considered for what to do tomorrow
the process over the result
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what I said was I did not believe long term huge sample size of a bettors picks that a person could pick winners and not have the market agree with a majority of them and win.
you make picks 1 minute before closing and for argument sake the line does not move after that, you will lose long term
you make 5000 picks at the closing number and you will lose, modeler handicapper whoever
blue is actual, red is expected value for my bets so far this year.
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you will miss opportunities that you had skill on because of streaks of losses
you will stick with bad bets because of streaks.
wins and losses mean nothing and should not even be considered for what to do tomorrow
the process over the result
You are making assumptions about how a person thinks as if all people think the same. An average gambler will confuse a hot streak for skill. However, if a person has skill, they can recognize when the games are not playing out or when they look at the lines and there is simply nothing there to bet.
Just because you look at the lines and there is nothing there to bet does not mean you are no longer sharp though. It means that you will just have to wait for the market to get things wrong because the market will always get things wrong. A person that is sharp will always have some degree of sharpness. The degree to which they win will just depend on their willingness to continue watching and their discipline to lay off the pitch in the dirt.
the battle between sharp and efficiency is ongoing
a person works harder to get better at the same time tons of others work hard to get better and they vote with money and make the market better. now who learned more the market or the bettor is a ongoing battle.
looking at lines and not having bets does not indicate skill or no skill
winning and losing streaks mean nothing
again "playing out" results are good for nothing, they literally have no purpose except to gather stats and adjust rankings accordingly and that impact is tiny. Results mean nothing
it is hard to tell a guy that just swam across the lake, he does not know how to swim.
same thing with bettors, they bet a few games and kick ass and win and I come along and say, that was luck survivorship bias, variance, that does not mean anything, you need to do this and this and this to know you are a good bettor and they laugh. because they just swam across the damn lake, they know they seen themselves swim and I'm saying they dont know how to swim.
"my bankroll says I know what I am doing" no your bankroll is the same thing RESULTS and results do not help you get better, be better. Sports bettors have a few goals
drink beer watch games and kick ass - great roll on best of luck and my advice bet as few games as possible to hope variance saves you money
win long term- throw away results dont even look at them. CLV, market confirmation and how accurate are the lines you make by modeling, guessing, historic knowledge and skill or whatever to the closing line.
again "playing out" results are good for nothing, they literally have no purpose except to gather stats and adjust rankings accordingly and that impact is tiny. Results mean nothing
Results mean everything.
But I think what you meant to say was not that if you use certain types of analysis, you cannot win. Even though that is probably what you think.
What you meant to say was if you are not sharp, you cannot win. And if you are sharp, you will have CLV. I will not disagree with this except for maybe your Japanese tennis tout friend and possibly Professor MJ.
Professor MJ is a data miner who is getting lucky, there is literally no skill in that, that is a guy who is swimming right now and soon will have a concrete block tied to his foot. he has shown me zero indication of skill or even discussed betting with any type of real skill
tennis guy I really dont have an explanation for him honestly
bad bettors win all the time some even last thousands of bets.
Professor MJ is a data miner who is getting lucky, there is literally no skill in that, that is a guy who is swimming right now and soon will have a concrete block tied to his foot. he has shown me zero indication of skill or even discussed betting with any type of real skill
I told you that you could not judge Professor MJ by anything but his results. He is not betting on anything recognized by the market, therefore, you will need for him to post a few thousand picks to make a judgment.
LOL, you can judge the professor now, he is data mining and has no skill whatsoever, his success is a perfect example of why you cannot go by results to judge skill. he actually is a perfect example of results meaning nothing.
for god's sake he bets the red wings because yesterday they lost by exactly 4 goals and the other team won their last 2 game by 2 or more goals, come on anyone can see through that and that is why he keeps his ass out of my thread because I will beat his ass up on skill if he comes in my thread.
Well you have to admit, you do not know if that data has value or not. Professor MJ has at least looked at the data. There is no way to measure him except by the results. You are just going to need a lot of them to find out.
guy is betting NHL money lines, we KNOW NHL MLs are efficient and he is not beating the line at all.
he gets zero market confirmation
his betting conversation on betting is bad and that is being nice
brother he is basically saying this
roulette landed on red last 3 rows when guy in blue shirt bet red and guy in green shirt bet black, so we are betting red since guy in blue shirt is betting red and green shirt guy is betting black.
hockey has tons of things that make this not make sense
biggest is goalie changes nearly daily, rest factors, and line changes constantly
because Blues won by 2 yesterday has nothing to do with what they will do today, that is FACT
It would seem to be true. But we do not know it for a fact. It does not matter if the line is efficient or not because the line is not factoring this info in its betting. Therefore, even if this is pure gold, it will not show in the market until the market discovers Professor MJ right here at BT and we will be able to say we were here when it happened. I can't wait to find out.
"Also, the profit made from closing lines dropped very slightly compared to the one obtained from morning lines."
what about this gem
""Bet a road team coming off 2+ straight LOSSES when facing a home team coming off 2+ straight WINS. Bet only if the road team's money line is greater than 2.25 in decimal format."
Over a nine-year period, this strategy yielded a profit of 42.69 units via 428 bets.
Professor MJ"
say a team played the best 2 teams in hockey over the last 2 games and their primary goalie was hurt and the team they are playing won 2 straight because they played 2 teams playing their backup goalie and had their star player hurt and had zero rest
It would seem to be true. But we do not know it for a fact. It does not matter if the line is efficient or not because the line is not factoring this info in its betting. Therefore, even if this is pure gold, it will not show in the market until the market discovers Professor MJ right here at BT and we will be able to say we were here when it happened. I can't wait to find out.
you know when you bet, the line means something, just because he likes the guy in the green shirt he is still betting against the market and is paying the juice. He will lose! he is actually a perfect example of what I have been saying in the last 20 posts, he is literally a perfect example.
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if you throw 10000 different color straws on the ground randomly you will create tons of definite patterns with sample size confirmation, that does not mean shit
Comments
My strategy in the past was to bet late because the majority of my bets, in all sports are dogs...public are favorite betters so in the long run i should pick up some value. I started to hang some overnighters up , like last night wis bet , i posted +8 fwiw for me was a good number, i guess not, its 9 and 9.5 now. I actually put a little more on it this morning.
Lem Banker who i met and talked to a few times through a friend that was a suit at the horseshoe always told me , bet a favorite early, and dogs late , i kinda never forgot that , I lost my way over the years and then found it again just to find myself wondering when was the best time to bet a game. I think OT said, if you like the number you get ,bet it ,don't wait for the market.
When you are making picks, you are not predicting which way the line is going to move. You are making a pick because you think a team is better than the number. The reason the line moves is because the market agrees with you. The market figures things out and the line moves because you were ahead of the curve.
Everybody is picking games off of stats. If they are not drilling down on stats like a modeler, they are at the very least picking games off scores which are stats. They also throw in some other ideas. If these ideas are valid, the line moves in their favor because the market agrees.
People that generally are ahead of the curve for whatever reason they are betting get CLV.
But a person with an edge can outperform expected results using a CLV estimate. That is why they will tell you that CLV is not what you make it out to be.
second thing being better than the market. I dont think long term over a large enough sample size someone could say they won and did not beat the market. I also would say that the expected proft (CLV) is very close to the actual value.
its like pressure on the line say example
Frank bets $100 a game and he is really good at it and he wins, in most cases he will grow and next season he bets $400 a game and so on and so on UNTIL the market catches up to him or he reaches limits. When he reaches limits and has a seasoned record now the market will start to reflect his opinion with weight.
Frank is now making a bigger impact on the line and will by default see CLV on his picks.
now once the Market has a good number of Frank's the market becomes sharper and the number of Franks who get CLV drops as one Frank moves it faster.
there are 3 ways to "predict" someones probability of future success
1 CLV obvious the markets are efficient
2 Closing line prediction, a person that can accurately predict what the closing lines will be
3 market confirmation if the market generally moves in his direction at a high rate he can assume he is on the "right side" of bets
winning today is great but being able to know when and or if that edge is gone is the ultimate key. you need to know before you are broke that your method is still a winning method or else you are just holding the books money until they sharpen up and take it back.
- - - Updated - - -
Very few people stop betting when they are winning skilled or not. the books depend on this because they wait for the luck to run out if just lucky or they get sharper and outsharp the sharp. Our only goal is to know if we will win tomorrow, that truly is the key without this the book will eventually win
its a pain in the ass to calculate CLV on each bet
its hard to get CLV at a consistent level to make it seem worthy of the effort
its hard to face the reality of 1 to 2% profit over a zillion bets
its hard to say I got 4% clv on this bet and bet it and lose that bet
these things make CLV less fun and this is probably why most just say, "fuck that pick winners"
And as we know, if you are sharp, you will have CLV because you are quicker to recognize value than the average bear.
Your statement was that you did not believe anybody could possibly win based on matchup analysis and stuff that did not come from a computer model. That has nothing to do with the subject. That is just a belief that you have.
The fact of the matter is that it does not take long to know you do not have an edge any longer because the opportunities start to disappear. Week 1 of the college football season used to be the week I had the most bets. It is now the week I have the least bets because the numbers are a lot better. I don't need to check my CLV to know I missed it on a game because the game does not play out like you expect. If you are betting on something and it does not happen like you thought, you were not sharp. It is immediate feedback.
Now if you are a modeler, you will have a hell of a time figuring this out.
blue is actual, red is expected value for my bets so far this year.
- - - Updated - - -
you will miss opportunities that you had skill on because of streaks of losses
you will stick with bad bets because of streaks.
wins and losses mean nothing and should not even be considered for what to do tomorrow
the process over the result
- - - Updated - - -
what I said was I did not believe long term huge sample size of a bettors picks that a person could pick winners and not have the market agree with a majority of them and win.
you make picks 1 minute before closing and for argument sake the line does not move after that, you will lose long term
you make 5000 picks at the closing number and you will lose, modeler handicapper whoever
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here is my 2019 total chart for all sports
You are making assumptions about how a person thinks as if all people think the same. An average gambler will confuse a hot streak for skill. However, if a person has skill, they can recognize when the games are not playing out or when they look at the lines and there is simply nothing there to bet.
Just because you look at the lines and there is nothing there to bet does not mean you are no longer sharp though. It means that you will just have to wait for the market to get things wrong because the market will always get things wrong. A person that is sharp will always have some degree of sharpness. The degree to which they win will just depend on their willingness to continue watching and their discipline to lay off the pitch in the dirt.
a person works harder to get better at the same time tons of others work hard to get better and they vote with money and make the market better. now who learned more the market or the bettor is a ongoing battle.
looking at lines and not having bets does not indicate skill or no skill
winning and losing streaks mean nothing
again "playing out" results are good for nothing, they literally have no purpose except to gather stats and adjust rankings accordingly and that impact is tiny. Results mean nothing
it is hard to tell a guy that just swam across the lake, he does not know how to swim.
same thing with bettors, they bet a few games and kick ass and win and I come along and say, that was luck survivorship bias, variance, that does not mean anything, you need to do this and this and this to know you are a good bettor and they laugh. because they just swam across the damn lake, they know they seen themselves swim and I'm saying they dont know how to swim.
"my bankroll says I know what I am doing" no your bankroll is the same thing RESULTS and results do not help you get better, be better. Sports bettors have a few goals
drink beer watch games and kick ass - great roll on best of luck and my advice bet as few games as possible to hope variance saves you money
win long term- throw away results dont even look at them. CLV, market confirmation and how accurate are the lines you make by modeling, guessing, historic knowledge and skill or whatever to the closing line.
Results mean everything.
But I think what you meant to say was not that if you use certain types of analysis, you cannot win. Even though that is probably what you think.
What you meant to say was if you are not sharp, you cannot win. And if you are sharp, you will have CLV. I will not disagree with this except for maybe your Japanese tennis tout friend and possibly Professor MJ.
tennis guy I really dont have an explanation for him honestly
bad bettors win all the time some even last thousands of bets.
you cant judge skill on results
I told you that you could not judge Professor MJ by anything but his results. He is not betting on anything recognized by the market, therefore, you will need for him to post a few thousand picks to make a judgment.
for god's sake he bets the red wings because yesterday they lost by exactly 4 goals and the other team won their last 2 game by 2 or more goals, come on anyone can see through that and that is why he keeps his ass out of my thread because I will beat his ass up on skill if he comes in my thread.
he gets zero market confirmation
his betting conversation on betting is bad and that is being nice
brother he is basically saying this
roulette landed on red last 3 rows when guy in blue shirt bet red and guy in green shirt bet black, so we are betting red since guy in blue shirt is betting red and green shirt guy is betting black.
hockey has tons of things that make this not make sense
biggest is goalie changes nearly daily, rest factors, and line changes constantly
because Blues won by 2 yesterday has nothing to do with what they will do today, that is FACT
"Also, the profit made from closing lines dropped very slightly compared to the one obtained from morning lines."
what about this gem
""Bet a road team coming off 2+ straight LOSSES when facing a home team coming off 2+ straight WINS. Bet only if the road team's money line is greater than 2.25 in decimal format."
Over a nine-year period, this strategy yielded a profit of 42.69 units via 428 bets.
Professor MJ"
say a team played the best 2 teams in hockey over the last 2 games and their primary goalie was hurt and the team they are playing won 2 straight because they played 2 teams playing their backup goalie and had their star player hurt and had zero rest
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you know when you bet, the line means something, just because he likes the guy in the green shirt he is still betting against the market and is paying the juice. He will lose! he is actually a perfect example of what I have been saying in the last 20 posts, he is literally a perfect example.
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if you throw 10000 different color straws on the ground randomly you will create tons of definite patterns with sample size confirmation, that does not mean shit
a joke or is he actually selling picks now?
Speaking of sharp...
Hr's always been selling picks. That is why he has been posting.
<tbody>
[TH="align: center"]season = 2019 and D and H and line > 130[/TH]
<tbody>
[TH="align: center"]SU:[/TH]
20-24 (-0.45, 45.5%)
avg line: 160.1 / -182.8
on / against: +$763 / -$1,125
ROI: +17.3% / -14.1%
[TH="align: center"]OU:[/TH]
22-19-3 (0.20, 53.7%)
avg total: 6.2
</tbody>
</tbody>
<tbody>
[TH="align: center"]season = 2019 and D and H and line > 103[/TH]
<tbody>
[TH="align: center"]SU:[/TH]
68-77 (-0.27, 46.9%)
avg line: 128.5 / -146.0
on / against: +$926 / -$1,851
ROI: +6.4% / -8.8%
[TH="align: center"]OU:[/TH]
69-71-5 (-0.08, 49.3%)
avg total: 6.1
</tbody>
</tbody>
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here is another cant miss gem
<tbody>
[TH="align: center"]season = 2019 and D and p:W and op:L[/TH]
<tbody>
[TH="align: center"]SU:[/TH]
68-80 (-0.43, 45.9%)
avg line: 130.5 / -147.6
on / against: +$898 / -$2,177
ROI: +6.1% / -10.0%
[TH="align: center"]OU:[/TH]
67-76-5 (-0.25, 46.9%)
avg total: 6.0
</tbody>
</tbody>
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those are data mining BS and if you spent a couple hours you could make a million of them
1/18
Clippers Under 233
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BET
Bucks Under 233.5
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BET
76ers -3.5
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BET
Timberwolves +5.5
55-45-3
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lol of course am just busting on ya brother
Closing Probability w/o juice 55.2%
Paid Probability with juice 53.3%
Actual win % so far 55%
Coincidence or efficiency?