I saw some of your threads on sbr a while back. You sound like a moron posting there. Keep asking questions and ppl gave you answers and keep asking why etc. Same thing here. You keep asking is the closing line more sharper than opening line and was told yes, you kept wanting to ask why even though ppl told you the answer.
The only joke here is you. Your model is would get laughed at if you showed it to legit cappers like buffetgambler who is a legit capper. If you were to show it to him and ask for his opinion, he probably roll his eyes and think you have zero idea what you are doing. No one that is advanced in modeling or capping would ask the silly questions you ask now. I could not believe you literally asked why the limits for a smaller market were so low etc. This is common sense. Because only the sharps would be betting it. Its like if ppl bet volleyball. Who do you think is max betting something like that. Probably sharps.
first off you are over rating the number of sharp people out there and I dont know if you heard but margins on small sports are really high which makes them less tempting, sure the limits play a role but really its the high margins that keep away the sharp people.
I think the answer I shared earlier is a really good reason limits vary even though the book feels they have an edge on both.
I saw some of your threads on sbr a while back. You sound like a moron posting there. Keep asking questions and ppl gave you answers and keep asking why etc. Same thing here. You keep asking is the closing line more sharper than opening line and was told yes, you kept wanting to ask why even though ppl told you the answer.
The only joke here is you. Your model is would get laughed at if you showed it to legit cappers like buffetgambler who is a legit capper. If you were to show it to him and ask for his opinion, he probably roll his eyes and think you have zero idea what you are doing. No one that is advanced in modeling or capping would ask the silly questions you ask now. I could not believe you literally asked why the limits for a smaller market were so low etc. This is common sense. Because only the sharps would be betting it. Its like if ppl bet volleyball. Who do you think is max betting something like that. Probably sharps.
I think danshan's winning% here is actually higher than BGs.
am thinking lakers big tonight , i guess flu is going around and all the injury news...makes me want them even more now..
you guys hear if AD is playing ,I think LJ will ,they are playing cleve...everyone else doesnt matter much to me
am thinking lakers big tonight , i guess flu is going around and all the injury news...makes me want them even more now..
you guys hear if AD is playing ,I think LJ will ,they are playing cleve...everyone else doesnt matter much to me
Sorry, been gone for awhile yep that was a great bet on the Lakers. I wonder what the Clippers will do to the Cavaliers tomorrow night?
am so fucking bored , dan can you please start talking about CLV please , and fwiw , this is where i totally disagree with you , if you didn't see the games and just looked at the final score the next morning, found out that you won the games , did you luck out?
OK here we go on CLV, nah just kidding
wins dont mean shit without line value
I created an api and scraped some data and here were the results, I filtered out money lines and bets on extremes
this was a hair under 10000 bets I scraped and these were football bets NFL NCAAFB
bets placed >4 hours to start time
avg line 1.93 basically 50-50 after juice bettors won 50.49%
bets placed <4 hours to start
avg line 1.93 and bettors won 49.24%
this implies to me that
1st people who bet in advance have a clue it seems
2nd people who bet at the wire get their ass kicked just like they should
and again CLV is king!
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oh another interesting tidbit from that
avg bet >4 $146 <4 $78
am so fucking bored , dan can you please start talking about CLV please , and fwiw , this is where i totally disagree with you , if you didn't see the games and just looked at the final score the next morning, found out that you won the games , did you luck out?
I just believe I (BOLD I) cannot predict game winners all I can get close to predicting is the closing line. that for me is my only hope of winning is to find value by trying to predict what the line will do.
apples to apples really but my picks have absolutely nothing to do with me thinking the team wont score tonight, or they are wearing tighter headbands so they should have a tougher time shooting. its me saying 225 is wrong and I think it moves toward 220 and hope it gets closer to 220 so I can get some implied probability out of the closing line
Comments
The only joke here is you. Your model is would get laughed at if you showed it to legit cappers like buffetgambler who is a legit capper. If you were to show it to him and ask for his opinion, he probably roll his eyes and think you have zero idea what you are doing. No one that is advanced in modeling or capping would ask the silly questions you ask now. I could not believe you literally asked why the limits for a smaller market were so low etc. This is common sense. Because only the sharps would be betting it. Its like if ppl bet volleyball. Who do you think is max betting something like that. Probably sharps.
I think the answer I shared earlier is a really good reason limits vary even though the book feels they have an edge on both.
1/11
Bulls +4
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BET
76ers Under 224
- - - Updated - - -
RECORD
48-41-3
I think danshan's winning% here is actually higher than BGs.
50-41-3
1/12
Warriors Under 227.5
55.5%!
from him that would be a compliment
you guys hear if AD is playing ,I think LJ will ,they are playing cleve...everyone else doesnt matter much to me
actually I am gonna take it
BET
1-13
Lakers -7.5 1H
they win the 1st have by 15 points on avg and win the 2nd half by 3 points
51-42-3
Sorry, been gone for awhile yep that was a great bet on the Lakers. I wonder what the Clippers will do to the Cavaliers tomorrow night?
1/14
Warriors Under 224
I have 219 so not sure where 224 comes from but we shall see
52-42-3
Wizards Under 227.5
Blazers Under 236
54-42-3
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Rather be lucky than good. those were 2 bad picks!
wins dont mean shit without line value
I created an api and scraped some data and here were the results, I filtered out money lines and bets on extremes
this was a hair under 10000 bets I scraped and these were football bets NFL NCAAFB
bets placed >4 hours to start time
avg line 1.93 basically 50-50 after juice bettors won 50.49%
bets placed <4 hours to start
avg line 1.93 and bettors won 49.24%
this implies to me that
1st people who bet in advance have a clue it seems
2nd people who bet at the wire get their ass kicked just like they should
and again CLV is king!
- - - Updated - - -
oh another interesting tidbit from that
avg bet >4 $146 <4 $78
I just believe I (BOLD I) cannot predict game winners all I can get close to predicting is the closing line. that for me is my only hope of winning is to find value by trying to predict what the line will do.
apples to apples really but my picks have absolutely nothing to do with me thinking the team wont score tonight, or they are wearing tighter headbands so they should have a tougher time shooting. its me saying 225 is wrong and I think it moves toward 220 and hope it gets closer to 220 so I can get some implied probability out of the closing line