Hawks and Wizards is a really good example of how the actual results compare to the predicted line for the totals here
Hawks Games over the last 10 avg 219 points (actual)
Wizards games over the last 10 avg 224 points (actual)
predicted over last 10
Hawks 225
Wizards 227.5
but you got a total of 236 237 and this is because they should be scoring more but just are not
Now I got 235.5
but if you take the closest oppt for each
Blazers I get 237.7 adjusted
Rockets 238.5 adjusted
Now I like 235.5 and I think bettors will move it down because of recent scores for both teams but I would not be surprised to see it close 238 because in reality that is probably what it should be.
So bettors or modelers who gets the final say here?
can anyone give me some insight into how books work limits?
like a div 2 game has limits of say 500 and a div 1 game has limits of 2000, why is that? if the book is taking bets that means they have an edge so why would they limit those smaller markets. I am asking this question with complete lack of knowledge of how and why limits happen game.
I understand not taking in 1 zillion on 1 game but I dont really get the small market limits, hopefully someone can explain it to me.
can anyone give me some insight into how books work limits?
like a div 2 game has limits of say 500 and a div 1 game has limits of 2000, why is that? if the book is taking bets that means they have an edge so why would they limit those smaller markets. I am asking this question with complete lack of knowledge of how and why limits happen game.
I understand not taking in 1 zillion on 1 game but I dont really get the small market limits, hopefully someone can explain it to me.
can anyone give me some insight into how books work limits?
like a div 2 game has limits of say 500 and a div 1 game has limits of 2000, why is that? if the book is taking bets that means they have an edge so why would they limit those smaller markets. I am asking this question with complete lack of knowledge of how and why limits happen game.
I understand not taking in 1 zillion on 1 game but I dont really get the small market limits, hopefully someone can explain it to me.
They know a sharp bettor has an advantage on them so they limit their exposure but want to offer the games because there is demand and they can still expect to win because the average bet is probably a loser.
They don't necessarily have an edge. BOL admits they lose on certain sports but they want to offer the lines because it means they will get action on other stuff.
can anyone give me some insight into how books work limits?
like a div 2 game has limits of say 500 and a div 1 game has limits of 2000, why is that? if the book is taking bets that means they have an edge so why would they limit those smaller markets. I am asking this question with complete lack of knowledge of how and why limits happen game.
I understand not taking in 1 zillion on 1 game but I dont really get the small market limits, hopefully someone can explain it to me.
Are you serious with this question? How can someone like you with a so called model cannot figure something like this out? This is pretty common sense.
You are either a troll or you pulling people's strings here.
I cannot believe people here even give you a serious reply to this question. Common sense will tell you recreational bettors don't even bet it and mostly sharps do.
so using power ratings i started this year ....i have atl 121 wash 111 total 232
using the model you helped me with,and with a certain difference from the actual line to make it a play, i have 227.
Using home and away pts, for and against, using league avg of 220.8 ....i come up with 245....
subset with total of say no more of 240 i have OVER ...if it goes to 240.5 and i think it only happened 6 times this year 2 over 4 under.
good luck ...
I have wash by far the worst dee ...anything can happen.
I think the Hawks game is a matter of models vs joes. the model screams 238 239 but the "smart" play seems under. I am very curious where it ends because that will tell you really who is on this modelers or joes
Are you serious with this question? How can someone like you with a so called model cannot figure something like this out? This is pretty common sense.
You are either a troll or you pulling people's strings here.
I cannot believe people here even give you a serious reply to this question. Common sense will tell you recreational bettors don't even bet it and mostly sharps do.
calm down brother, I think its a good question and I think a bunch of people including myself would like some sharp opinions on it.
I think the best answer I heard yet is
Less action, fewer bettors, so if you get it wrong, you have less chance to put it right with additional volume. Hence reduce risk by lowering stake limit.
I think the Hawks game is a matter of models vs joes. the model screams 238 239 but the "smart" play seems under. I am very curious where it ends because that will tell you really who is on this modelers or joes
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calm down brother, I think its a good question and I think a bunch of people including myself would like some sharp opinions on it.
I think the best answer I heard yet is
Less action, fewer bettors, so if you get it wrong, you have less chance to put it right with additional volume. Hence reduce risk by lowering stake limit.
This is a good question for a novice to ask. Someone like you who has been in this forum and posting many questions is not a novice... this should be obvious answer for someone like you.
There is zero way you did not know the answer to this or guess what the possible answers could be.
I cannot believe anyone here takes you seriously. Also stop talking about models. Your model or whatever you have is basically incorrect. There is zero way what you are doing when capping games and number correct.
You think I really lack the skills to be posting picks and or opinions. I feel like that is a bit myopic!
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oh and BTW not one single person here takes me serious or tails my plays brother! I am a grinder not a hot hand guy that is usually not tail bait for most
There is zero way you cap or numbers you do is even in the right direction. The fact you ask some very basic and simple questions... what does that mean? You have zero clue what you are doing. You must be misapplying everything. I cannot believe anyone here waste time with your questions like why is the total 220 when you have it 210? Oh i dont know.. maybe because you have zero clue what you are doing?
Also its no wonder you got banned on sbr forum because of your stupid questions. Now if you ask stupid questions, no big deal. But what is the issue with you? You talk about your model and make it like it sound like its the best thing ever when you are almost certainly not a winning bettor. I can't believe ppl here take you seriously. Its like you are a new scientist or something and ask very basic questions that a beginner scientist would know. Thats why you got banned on sbr and other forums because of that. Keep asking about the reasoning for so and so when someone like you either should know or could easily guess the answer to it based on the really novice questions you already asked for a long time in the forums.
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Anyone that tails you would be a moron. But some ppl here actually seem to speak serious to you about certain things and plays and numbers. I honestly don't know why they are even taking you seriously. Imagine you were to suddenly reveal your model and then it shows how you come up with your numbers. Any legit guy like buffetgambler or other legit cappers would laugh at what a joke you are because either you are misapplying everything or just doing everything completely wrong. The way you talk and ask very basic questions that even i can answer... that mean u have zero idea what you are doing. You didn't even know certain games were neutral field or something like that in a few games and others had to tell you this. Imagine what other information you are misapplying when you are doing your modeling.
The thing is if you didn't talk so much about your modeling and numbers etc, i wouldn't say anything. Its the fact you keep talking about your model and numbers which is just stupid. Anyone can say i have a model and these are my numbers for the games and i pull it out of thin air. You probably are not doing this. The problem? Your so called model is probably a joke and it get laughed at if a real capper saw it.
I was banned on SBR for betting a guy via DM and I have not been banned anywhere else. I was banned here because I pissed people off by getting in their threads, hint hint. JK, I dont care if you post all day in my thread. You literally add zero to the forum and really honestly your only value here is as a joke.
Comments
43-35-1
12/28
Cavs Over 222
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RECORD
43-36-1
BET
Suns Under 231
43-37-1
Happy New Year everyone, I will be back to posting NBA picks tomorrow
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BET
1-2
Nuggets over 208.5
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BET 1-2
Raptors +6
44-38-1
BET
1-6
Thunder +7
1-7
Timberwolves Under 228.5
Kings +6.5
1/8
Rockets Under 237
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BET
Bulls Under 224.5
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BET
Knicks Over 213.5
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Record 45-39-2
1-9
Rockets Under 226.5
47-40-3
1-10
Hawks Under 236
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BET
Hornets Over 211.5
Hawks Games over the last 10 avg 219 points (actual)
Wizards games over the last 10 avg 224 points (actual)
predicted over last 10
Hawks 225
Wizards 227.5
but you got a total of 236 237 and this is because they should be scoring more but just are not
Now I got 235.5
but if you take the closest oppt for each
Blazers I get 237.7 adjusted
Rockets 238.5 adjusted
Now I like 235.5 and I think bettors will move it down because of recent scores for both teams but I would not be surprised to see it close 238 because in reality that is probably what it should be.
So bettors or modelers who gets the final say here?
any ideas on what or how?
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Lots of young players racing around with no sense of consistency whatsoever...
like a div 2 game has limits of say 500 and a div 1 game has limits of 2000, why is that? if the book is taking bets that means they have an edge so why would they limit those smaller markets. I am asking this question with complete lack of knowledge of how and why limits happen game.
I understand not taking in 1 zillion on 1 game but I dont really get the small market limits, hopefully someone can explain it to me.
Lack of recreational action to offset pro's'
Lack of public interest and accurate info
Easy market manipulation
Reduce loss leader liability
They know a sharp bettor has an advantage on them so they limit their exposure but want to offer the games because there is demand and they can still expect to win because the average bet is probably a loser.
They don't necessarily have an edge. BOL admits they lose on certain sports but they want to offer the lines because it means they will get action on other stuff.
Are you serious with this question? How can someone like you with a so called model cannot figure something like this out? This is pretty common sense.
You are either a troll or you pulling people's strings here.
I cannot believe people here even give you a serious reply to this question. Common sense will tell you recreational bettors don't even bet it and mostly sharps do.
using the model you helped me with,and with a certain difference from the actual line to make it a play, i have 227.
Using home and away pts, for and against, using league avg of 220.8 ....i come up with 245....
subset with total of say no more of 240 i have OVER ...if it goes to 240.5 and i think it only happened 6 times this year 2 over 4 under.
good luck ...
I have wash by far the worst dee ...anything can happen.
good luck brother
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calm down brother, I think its a good question and I think a bunch of people including myself would like some sharp opinions on it.
I think the best answer I heard yet is
Less action, fewer bettors, so if you get it wrong, you have less chance to put it right with additional volume. Hence reduce risk by lowering stake limit.
This is a good question for a novice to ask. Someone like you who has been in this forum and posting many questions is not a novice... this should be obvious answer for someone like you.
There is zero way you did not know the answer to this or guess what the possible answers could be.
I cannot believe anyone here takes you seriously. Also stop talking about models. Your model or whatever you have is basically incorrect. There is zero way what you are doing when capping games and number correct.
You think I really lack the skills to be posting picks and or opinions. I feel like that is a bit myopic!
- - - Updated - - -
oh and BTW not one single person here takes me serious or tails my plays brother! I am a grinder not a hot hand guy that is usually not tail bait for most
Also its no wonder you got banned on sbr forum because of your stupid questions. Now if you ask stupid questions, no big deal. But what is the issue with you? You talk about your model and make it like it sound like its the best thing ever when you are almost certainly not a winning bettor. I can't believe ppl here take you seriously. Its like you are a new scientist or something and ask very basic questions that a beginner scientist would know. Thats why you got banned on sbr and other forums because of that. Keep asking about the reasoning for so and so when someone like you either should know or could easily guess the answer to it based on the really novice questions you already asked for a long time in the forums.
- - - Updated - - -
Anyone that tails you would be a moron. But some ppl here actually seem to speak serious to you about certain things and plays and numbers. I honestly don't know why they are even taking you seriously. Imagine you were to suddenly reveal your model and then it shows how you come up with your numbers. Any legit guy like buffetgambler or other legit cappers would laugh at what a joke you are because either you are misapplying everything or just doing everything completely wrong. The way you talk and ask very basic questions that even i can answer... that mean u have zero idea what you are doing. You didn't even know certain games were neutral field or something like that in a few games and others had to tell you this. Imagine what other information you are misapplying when you are doing your modeling.
The thing is if you didn't talk so much about your modeling and numbers etc, i wouldn't say anything. Its the fact you keep talking about your model and numbers which is just stupid. Anyone can say i have a model and these are my numbers for the games and i pull it out of thin air. You probably are not doing this. The problem? Your so called model is probably a joke and it get laughed at if a real capper saw it.
https://imgur.com/a/XUg3HMv
so anyway keep telling the jokes, I enjoy them and you are welcome in my thread everyday all day