My tomorrow lines
first set is my using model, 2nd set is my think it will be my model some day
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Jazz
-7.5
9
So am trying to do something model wize with nba team totals , have to write every single total down ,home and away , it takes so much time , I asked danshan if he could help me out , this guy put a spreadsheet together for me in a blink of an eye , i know everyone is busy this time of the year, but he never said a word to me , even after telling him in numerous emails, its not exactly what i wanted , but he kept changing it for me , till he got it where i could understand it, now i just have to change a few numbers or letters and am home free.
Much appreciated pal.
Thank you
So am trying to do something model wize with nba team totals , have to write every single total down ,home and away , it takes so much time , I asked danshan if he could help me out , this guy put a spreadsheet together for me in a blink of an eye , i know everyone is busy this time of the year, but he never said a word to me , even after telling him in numerous emails, its not exactly what i wanted , but he kept changing it for me , till he got it where i could understand it, now i just have to change a few numbers or letters and am home free.
Much appreciated pal.
Thank you
Danshan has been generous with me as well. Maybe he is not evil?
OK, what do you guys have for Clippers vs Lakers? BM has Clippers +2.5. If Davis and Lebron were full-strength, maybe. But theyre not feeling that great. And even if they were feeling great, they dont hold a long-time grudge against the Clippers in the same way that Patrick Beverly lives to beat the Lakers. Beverly will probably drag his teammates down the rabbit hole with him and they will play with maniacal energy like they did the first game of the season. From that perspective, +2.5 seems like a complete gift to people wanting to win money...
ok my line for the game is lal -0.04 and if i were to bet this game solely on my lines id have to take the clippers which falls into a great subset...
Now ,i have another subset that tells me the lakers have a 67% chance of covering this game , normally i would pass but that 67 looms large and has been around a lot longer then my lines ...so gun to head ,ill be on the lakers tomorrow as a small fav ,Sagarin has the clippers 7-4 vs top ten and lal 4-6 ..st up of course and i have them 3-7 ats vs those 10 and the clippers being 6-5 ats .
ok my line for the game is lal -0.04 and if i were to bet this game solely on my lines id have to take the clippers which falls into a great subset...
Now ,i have another subset that tells me the lakers have a 67% chance of covering this game , normally i would pass but that 67 looms large and has been around a lot longer then my lines ...so gun to head ,ill be on the lakers tomorrow as a small fav ,Sagarin has the clippers 7-4 vs top ten and lal 4-6 ..st up of course and i have them 3-7 ats vs those 10 and the clippers being 6-5 ats .
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and if the lakers were at full strength
OK then I am screwed because I put 10 units on Clippers +2.5... but from what I saw of AD Monday night, if he doesnt feel a whole lot better tomorrow the Lakers wont be at full strength.
this was a quick scrape of the last 10 games data for each team and comparing it to the projected scoring based on the avg line and total.
green would imply that over the last 10 games a team is scoring more than they are projected too and green on allowed is they are allowing less than projected. I find it interesting and it also plays into my argument of using actual scoring for modeling compared to the projected
lets have some fun and you can explain to me others better....so for tonights game i have a subset that takes det ...i didnt post yet but i will.
using the spread sheet you did for me i have ..... wash 118 124.07
det 112.5 112.07 ....projected score after adding and dividing my line would be
wash 115 det 118.5 ....
My power ratings off- def ......wash 205-79
det 198-84 for a projected score of wash 121 - det 119
both not adjusted for injuries.
Using your projected line lets say using BM right now they have it det 118 wash 111
what would you make it using your projected scores ..
ok I would never model this way but if you just used scoring and scoring allowed comparing projected to actual
Actual
Pistons 111.3 Home Scored
Wizards 113.7 Away Scored
Projected
Pistons 109.3 Home Scored
Wizards 113.5 Away Scored
so this tells me if you used the Pistons actual home scoring you would end up giving them 2 points of credit they PROBABLY dont deserve, so you would grade them 2 points higher than they probably are
now lets do defense
Pistons Allowed 114.7 but should have only allowed 110.1, if you used actual compared to projected this would give you a belief that the Pistons defense is 5 pts worse than they probably are
Wizards allowed 124.7 they were only suppose to give up 120, using actual would paint you a picture that the defense is 5 points worse than they probably are.
the interesting thing that is probably just noise, is the hot factor where teams are over or under performing against the projected.
look at the Mavs, in the last 10 games they are exceeding expectations on offense and defense
look at the Wizards in the last 10 games they are scoring more than expected and are giving up more than expected and they have went 5 out of 6 over in the last 6 games
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look at the Nets 7-3 ATS in last 10 and are all green, they are exceeding expectations on offense and defense in the last 10
Nets have exceeded in last 10
Knicks have under performed on the road with this not being much of a road game but still
but using the green and red it would seem this is a good spot for the Nets to cover and it seems like they probably cover by 5 more than they should normally so the line is 8 I would put a dash of salt on them to cover 12
now this is not modeling and is really cute but I still think its interesting to see teams under and over performing in the chart by color.
if the world thinks the Nets will score 110 over the last 10 and they been scoring 115 during that period, will they regress or are they "HOT" right now and keep rolling?
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could be interesting to see how a team that is over performing and is playing an under performing team plays out but of course all this is for nothing if you cant find a way to use this to beat the line.
I just bet the Nets to cover 10.5 at +137 and now lets see what that line does by closing
I think all you need to look at is what they are doing ats to see if they are over or under performing ...boston pretty good team but 8-2 ats the last 10 ,market not giving them that much respect ...look at the lakers ,pretty good team but now have lost 6 st to the spread , a little over rated you think ?
no I think its variance in most cases. Lakers are who bookmakers think they are
avg line this season -6 that implies 70% win %
guess what the actual win % is so far this season 70%
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so I guess the question is does a team that is 8-2 ATS playing a team that is 1-9 ATS how do they do against each other and I think we all know the answer its 5-5 ATS
so the fact is
set a fair line
make sure that line is really close to the closing line on most games
bet what looks wrong on the board and track the line value
if you get line value stick with it
if you dont get line value go back to step 1
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and this is the amazing beauty of sports betting, it is so random but it gives us the illusion of it not being random at all in small samples
Comments
first set is my using model, 2nd set is my think it will be my model some day
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Jazz
-7.5
9
Hornets
211
208
Hawks
227
-6
Nets
-7
238.5
Wizards
229
-11
Seventysixers
-10.5
230
Bulls
214.5
-1
Pistons
-1
218
Bucks
-14.5
14
Knicks
223
220.5
Kings
-1.5
3
Grizzlies
217
215.5
Clippers
-5
5
Spurs
225
220.5
Rockets
-7
7
Suns
234
238.5
Timberwolves
230.5
-4
Trailblazers
-4.5
239.5
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37-33-1
39-34-1
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BET
12/21 Bulls +3
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BET
Bucks Under 228
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and i see he is not playing ...so i think am still taking det but waiting the line keeps dropping
BET
Celtics -13
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BET
Clippers Under 222.5
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RECORD
41-34-1
42-35-1
BET
12/23
Jazz +4.5
Much appreciated pal.
Thank you
Danshan has been generous with me as well. Maybe he is not evil?
Now ,i have another subset that tells me the lakers have a 67% chance of covering this game , normally i would pass but that 67 looms large and has been around a lot longer then my lines ...so gun to head ,ill be on the lakers tomorrow as a small fav ,Sagarin has the clippers 7-4 vs top ten and lal 4-6 ..st up of course and i have them 3-7 ats vs those 10 and the clippers being 6-5 ats .
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and if the lakers were at full strength
OK then I am screwed because I put 10 units on Clippers +2.5... but from what I saw of AD Monday night, if he doesnt feel a whole lot better tomorrow the Lakers wont be at full strength.
merry xmas dude
Merry Xmas jets96! Well I got 4 units back on the 1st half of Celtics/Raptors down 6 now...
12-26
Thunder Under 225
https://i.imgur.com/FW0YGOf.png
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this was a quick scrape of the last 10 games data for each team and comparing it to the projected scoring based on the avg line and total.
green would imply that over the last 10 games a team is scoring more than they are projected too and green on allowed is they are allowing less than projected. I find it interesting and it also plays into my argument of using actual scoring for modeling compared to the projected
using the spread sheet you did for me i have ..... wash 118 124.07
det 112.5 112.07 ....projected score after adding and dividing my line would be
wash 115 det 118.5 ....
My power ratings off- def ......wash 205-79
det 198-84 for a projected score of wash 121 - det 119
both not adjusted for injuries.
Using your projected line lets say using BM right now they have it det 118 wash 111
what would you make it using your projected scores ..
Actual
Pistons 111.3 Home Scored
Wizards 113.7 Away Scored
Projected
Pistons 109.3 Home Scored
Wizards 113.5 Away Scored
so this tells me if you used the Pistons actual home scoring you would end up giving them 2 points of credit they PROBABLY dont deserve, so you would grade them 2 points higher than they probably are
now lets do defense
Pistons Allowed 114.7 but should have only allowed 110.1, if you used actual compared to projected this would give you a belief that the Pistons defense is 5 pts worse than they probably are
Wizards allowed 124.7 they were only suppose to give up 120, using actual would paint you a picture that the defense is 5 points worse than they probably are.
look at the Mavs, in the last 10 games they are exceeding expectations on offense and defense
look at the Wizards in the last 10 games they are scoring more than expected and are giving up more than expected and they have went 5 out of 6 over in the last 6 games
- - - Updated - - -
look at the Nets 7-3 ATS in last 10 and are all green, they are exceeding expectations on offense and defense in the last 10
Knicks have under performed on the road with this not being much of a road game but still
but using the green and red it would seem this is a good spot for the Nets to cover and it seems like they probably cover by 5 more than they should normally so the line is 8 I would put a dash of salt on them to cover 12
now this is not modeling and is really cute but I still think its interesting to see teams under and over performing in the chart by color.
if the world thinks the Nets will score 110 over the last 10 and they been scoring 115 during that period, will they regress or are they "HOT" right now and keep rolling?
- - - Updated - - -
could be interesting to see how a team that is over performing and is playing an under performing team plays out but of course all this is for nothing if you cant find a way to use this to beat the line.
I just bet the Nets to cover 10.5 at +137 and now lets see what that line does by closing
avg line this season -6 that implies 70% win %
guess what the actual win % is so far this season 70%
- - - Updated - - -
so I guess the question is does a team that is 8-2 ATS playing a team that is 1-9 ATS how do they do against each other and I think we all know the answer its 5-5 ATS
set a fair line
make sure that line is really close to the closing line on most games
bet what looks wrong on the board and track the line value
if you get line value stick with it
if you dont get line value go back to step 1
- - - Updated - - -
and this is the amazing beauty of sports betting, it is so random but it gives us the illusion of it not being random at all in small samples
12/27
76ers -2.5