am doing the same model as my nfl model but am not sure how to rate those games number 18 , 17 ,i really know nothing about the cfl , just like the wnba , but my lines are tight so am on the right track , we will see with the cfl soon
Why no MLB for you? Just wondering...Everyone is about CLV and you can't argue against it or you can, heard both sides of story. I do measure it vs sharper books only.
Why no MLB for you? Just wondering...Everyone is about CLV and you can't argue against it or you can, heard both sides of story. I do measure it vs sharper books only.
I just cant seem to get a good enough grip on my MLB model to bet it. I think my model is too strongly based on past lines and not enough on righties, lefties, weather and lineups, a good mlb model is pretty complex and probably just outside my current pay grade! now biting bad lines I have killed it in the MLB but that is not modeling that is just buying junk lines using my fairlay deal finder api I built, it kills it really does, I would share the picks if admin would let me. I have an automated software program that scrapes bad lines via api on fairlay and bets them and I have just killed it by doing that, its basically beating the line on stale lines on fairlay and there are tons of them. impossible to do without the api scraper.
I was just talking on twitter with people about that horrible plusev who writes articles for pinnacle and everybody just told me I was dumb, one guy calls you dumb, maybe, two guys call you dumb, probably, 1000 guys FOR SURE!
I guess I just dont get it. I just do not see this game like the majority of people do! its crazy
I was just talking on twitter with people about that horrible plusev who writes articles for pinnacle and everybody just told me I was dumb, one guy calls you dumb, maybe, two guys call you dumb, probably, 1000 guys FOR SURE!
I guess I just dont get it. I just do not see this game like the majority of people do! its crazy
You have to elevate your game. This ain't the drunk tank.
yeah man i just dont know why I see it so differently than everyone else. I really try and study and be as open minded as possible but it seems I just don't get it!
yeah man i just dont know why I see it so differently than everyone else. I really try and study and be as open minded as possible but it seems I just don't get it!
You definitely don't get it and I don't think you are going to.
What was it about this Pinnacle fellow you found objectionable?
this book would have probably been really good in 1994 but in today's market, these type models are not even necessary. I just dont see how people can see it any different. he also states this is for beginners to start modeling, please if I gave this book to my older brother and told him to build a model he would punch me. book has some really good references of apps and plugins but besides that is complete garbage but of course everyone disagrees with me. so again I guess I am just dumb!
and in part 1 of this article he states that we could not bet if lines were truly efficient and that is literally dumbest thing I ever read.
we bet before all the votes are in when the market is probably not efficient yet and all the votes are not counted yet.
when we bet we know the market is not efficient otherwise we are just throwing our money away, who would write that and for Pinnacle for god's sake.
please read this quote and comment on it anyone please
"Also, the logic is a bit of a tightrope walk its based on the idea that the market is efficient, but in a fully efficient market its impossible to even have an edge to begin with. This exact criticism can be applied to the idea of measuring ones edge using closing line value (CLV) that is, measuring a models success by how correlated it is with the movement from the line at the time the bet is placed to the closing line."
this might be the 2nd dumbest thing I read but of course the world 100% disagrees with me
LOL. We have already established that 1000 bets is very meaningful. It's all a matter of degrees.
he changes his staking size on each bet result. he somehow believes that todays score is predictive towards his next bets size to kelly!
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this quote is even funnier
"This is a good measure of success if, and only if, the market is reacting to the same signal as your model, just later in time. If you find a betting angle that nobody else in the world has, there is no reason why the market would catch up to you you may have a great deal of positive expected value, but your CLV will hover around zero."
what do you think of that article really? be honest tell it like it is, forget friends and alliances just straight up what do you think of the article, anyone chime in please
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LOOK AT THIS QUOTE, please comment on this
""This is a good measure of success if, and only if, the market is reacting to the same signal as your model, just later in time. If you find a betting angle that nobody else in the world has, there is no reason why the market would catch up to you you may have a great deal of positive expected value, but your CLV will hover around zero.""
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my over for that dream is garbage now too with all those injuries! bad beat! it will probably still go over but the line value wont be there for sure!
what do you think of that article really? be honest tell it like it is, forget friends and alliances just straight up what do you think of the article, anyone chime in please
- - - Updated - - -
LOOK AT THIS QUOTE, please comment on this
""This is a good measure of success if, and only if, the market is reacting to the same signal as your model, just later in time. If you find a betting angle that nobody else in the world has, there is no reason why the market would catch up to you you may have a great deal of positive expected value, but your CLV will hover around zero.""
You have already apparently experienced this phenomenon in real life. I don't think you really have much to argue with at this point.
ok not books in particular I mean the system, the system only exists because lines are efficient, there are not bad bettors, there is no such thing as a real bad bettor, the worst better loses the juice, period!
ok not books in particular I mean the system, the system only exists because lines are efficient, there are not bad bettors, there is no such thing as a real bad bettor, the worst better loses the juice, period!
They charge the juice for a reason, right? The juice only takes you so far with certain people. I think the average bettor has a winning percentage of 49.5% so they are slightly bad.
Comments
I do 3 points basically for homefield
ott -1.73
edm -7.22
ham -1.03
sas -1.51
<colgroup><col style="width: 43px"><col width="42"><col width="83"><col width="50"></colgroup><tbody>
7/23
Los
Sparks
-4
7/23
Atla
Dream
151
7/23
Seat
Storm
153.5
7/23
Las
Aces
-5.5
7/23
Indi
Fever
152
7/23
Phoe
Mercury
-6
</tbody>
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Edmonton -9
BC Lions U52
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Dream Over 148.5
CLV, picking winners, golf, tequila, shoot anything!!!
Why no MLB for you? Just wondering...Everyone is about CLV and you can't argue against it or you can, heard both sides of story. I do measure it vs sharper books only.
OK, so you have the Sparks winning by 4, while BookMaker says they will win by 1.5. So this is a huge play on the the Sparks, right?
lots of injuries have moved that line down a ton, Parker is out and a few other players, 1 is probably fair now
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I got Aces by 5.5 so I wont touch it but yeah I always like the Storm with points especially 5 or 6!
I just cant seem to get a good enough grip on my MLB model to bet it. I think my model is too strongly based on past lines and not enough on righties, lefties, weather and lineups, a good mlb model is pretty complex and probably just outside my current pay grade! now biting bad lines I have killed it in the MLB but that is not modeling that is just buying junk lines using my fairlay deal finder api I built, it kills it really does, I would share the picks if admin would let me. I have an automated software program that scrapes bad lines via api on fairlay and bets them and I have just killed it by doing that, its basically beating the line on stale lines on fairlay and there are tons of them. impossible to do without the api scraper.
here are a few screenshots of the scraper
https://imgur.com/a/TGx28z0
and here are my results using the scraper on actual bets
https://imgur.com/a/H69K8ld
so yeah MLB has been good to me but not because I can model it LOL
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look at these crazy insane lines I am getting using the scraper, its nuts how much value I get on each bet
https://imgur.com/a/mcWc9Uj
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serious downgrades on LA since the line came out at 3.5 or whatever it was
https://imgur.com/a/hBfm5lJ
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and that MLB profit is in mbtc I have made close to 20ish k so far this season using it
This is not a conversational place. You have to spark the conversation by going off on one of your tangents.
I was just talking on twitter with people about that horrible plusev who writes articles for pinnacle and everybody just told me I was dumb, one guy calls you dumb, maybe, two guys call you dumb, probably, 1000 guys FOR SURE!
I guess I just dont get it. I just do not see this game like the majority of people do! its crazy
You have to elevate your game. This ain't the drunk tank.
You definitely don't get it and I don't think you are going to.
What was it about this Pinnacle fellow you found objectionable?
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/educational/part-two-theory-of-everything/UWC25WVPPPZJ997D?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=article-link&utm_campaign=educational
its crazy! I called him out but he just called me dumb and everyone on twitter agreed
I also read this book and asked the author questions about it and he got mad and blocked me.
https://www.amazon.com/Statistical-Sports-Models-Excel-Andrew-ebook/dp/B07SPWLYQJ/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1ACQ4C7Z86Z0&keywords=statistical+sports+models+in+excel&qid=1563918737&s=gateway&sprefix=sports+models%2Caps%2C206&sr=8-1
this book would have probably been really good in 1994 but in today's market, these type models are not even necessary. I just dont see how people can see it any different. he also states this is for beginners to start modeling, please if I gave this book to my older brother and told him to build a model he would punch me. book has some really good references of apps and plugins but besides that is complete garbage but of course everyone disagrees with me. so again I guess I am just dumb!
and in part 1 of this article he states that we could not bet if lines were truly efficient and that is literally dumbest thing I ever read.
we bet before all the votes are in when the market is probably not efficient yet and all the votes are not counted yet.
when we bet we know the market is not efficient otherwise we are just throwing our money away, who would write that and for Pinnacle for god's sake.
please read this quote and comment on it anyone please
"Also, the logic is a bit of a tightrope walk its based on the idea that the market is efficient, but in a fully efficient market its impossible to even have an edge to begin with. This exact criticism can be applied to the idea of measuring ones edge using closing line value (CLV) that is, measuring a models success by how correlated it is with the movement from the line at the time the bet is placed to the closing line."
this might be the 2nd dumbest thing I read but of course the world 100% disagrees with me
- - - Updated - - -
he changes his staking size on each bet result. he somehow believes that todays score is predictive towards his next bets size to kelly!
- - - Updated - - -
this quote is even funnier
"This is a good measure of success if, and only if, the market is reacting to the same signal as your model, just later in time. If you find a betting angle that nobody else in the world has, there is no reason why the market would catch up to you you may have a great deal of positive expected value, but your CLV will hover around zero."
Like I said....
you quoted what I said not what he said, LOL
his quotes are in quotes!
Fortunately for you, this is a theological issue and the only thing that matters is if you can hit the broad side of a barn.
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LOOK AT THIS QUOTE, please comment on this
""This is a good measure of success if, and only if, the market is reacting to the same signal as your model, just later in time. If you find a betting angle that nobody else in the world has, there is no reason why the market would catch up to you you may have a great deal of positive expected value, but your CLV will hover around zero.""
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my over for that dream is garbage now too with all those injuries! bad beat! it will probably still go over but the line value wont be there for sure!
You have already apparently experienced this phenomenon in real life. I don't think you really have much to argue with at this point.
Survivorship Bias or huge volume and a real edge
there is no other way to win period if there was books would not exist, there really is no argument in that
There are plenty of books that no longer exist and if they took unlimited money, there probably would not be any in existence.
They charge the juice for a reason, right? The juice only takes you so far with certain people. I think the average bettor has a winning percentage of 49.5% so they are slightly bad.