I think a ton of this garbage actually influences people's plays. I cant believe that you would think them being horrible as HD's, they were just horrible as HD AF HF AD during that time, the situation did not matter at that time
they were made up statements, I did not use actual examples. I was trying to understand why these type things are so popular and what value do they actually have and if somehow they are not reflected in the line.
I mean if you say Yankees are better than the Barnstormers and the line is Yankees -240, isnt that statement kind of apparent already in the line?
market is flipping on tha ham game ,see late money coming in , If that line hit +3 i was going to bet it ...hey they opened as a fav and like OT someone like the dog on the open and ham became a 2.5 dog ....pass i guess
I got so busy checking stuff among a few other things I forgot it was a 4pm game or I would have bet the Ti-Cats +2 and maybe a little ML
If anyone is on them here GL.
I am asking a legitimate question I spend a few minutes on twitter a day and I keep seeing from lets say fairly credible twitter guys things like
Yankees won 5 in a row
Paxton is 6-1 with a 1.87 era in his last 5 starts
Orioles have won 3 straight road games as dogs
I will say I think these types of things may play in the line but what is the significance other than some maybe if actually matter adjustments to the betting line?
I wrote baseball quotes but you see these type of things from every sport, what gives??
There is no significance. These are people providing information that they think people might find interesting and they make money providing that type of information or giving the appearance of having knowledge. I have seen many people provide this type of information. I have seen very few actually use it except for people to maybe provide some backing for a pick in which case it is mostly just provided as reading material.
I hear this garbage all the time and just am like what the heck is the relevance.
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this sums it up pretty well
The reason so many of the angles you hear arent being reflected in the line is because the market knows theyre nonsense. How can this team be laying -150 when theyre 3-9 on Thursdays?! Market prices arent influenced by irrelevant trivia. Think about the talent that shapes those 150 team versions rather than trivia if you want to bet smart in daily baseball.
probably influential for people trying to pick winners and not create a fair line
It's really just fluff. It is the kind of thing you will see a lot on shows about gambling where guys have to talk a lot and don't have much to say. It's just content. More than anything, it makes someone that does not know much about gambling think they are really putting time into it and looking at all the angles.
My Current CFL Power Rankings to be honest I dont think anyone else has better power rankings than I do if so can someone tell me who and where I could really use them
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
<colgroup><col style="width: 100px"><col width="100"></colgroup><tbody>
Team
Power
Blue Bombers
-5.97
Tiger Cats
-5.31
Stampeders
-5.09
Eskimos
-2.71
Roughriders
-2.45
Alouettes
4.00
Redblacks
-3.46
Argonauts
4.53
Lions
-1.58
</tbody>
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My Current WNBA Power Rankings same thing here if anyone knows of a good source of WNBA Power Rankings let me know
I do as you can see here my picks but it is all mixed in a big pile of conversations, maybe I will put actual picks in ALL CAPS or something. I think some people like the Power Rankings and me and Jets play the what line do you have game which I enjoy. But I will try and clarify my picks a bit better. no one seems to interested in my picks really anyway, I am not sure anyone even sees them as more than something to laugh at, LOL
Obv Im interested, dude, thx for all you do, was not meant as a criticism, just imo you did not always be clear in your posts, was sometimes inferred by your power rankings.
Danshan you and I have entered a phase in our relationship where I owe you a lot more than you owe me. Simply due to your WNBA side bet picks. Therefore, besides the occasional question, I have little more to say than Go, danshan!
thanks all the support is truly appreciated, I work hard on the WNBA model and its pretty darn good. I play all my WNBA plays pretty heavy and do pretty good on them over a course of a year and a half, small sample still but I feel pretty confident in it.
Dan - i dont bet BB at all - any League, but i still enjoying seeing your PRs and selections - i enjoy following and learning others process.
The main reason i started posting here in April instead of just lurking was bc i believe its a necessary evolutionary process as a haddicapper - to post your opinions to other credible and respectable players. Not to prove anything, just to learn and refine.
have you read the black cat in the coal cellar? read that book dude and be honest with yourself.
if this is a hobby have fun and learn when and what you want
if this might possibly be more know that book ask a ton of ?s
how I rate cappers
I look at line the capper bet at and compare it to the closing line
capper bet Brooks +120 and he closes +124 and that happens kind often CAPPER SUCKS (personal opinion some feel different)
Pokerjoe taught me that anyone can give you a line on a game with the newspaper and a few stats but not many can adjust it down to what it will actually close at once we got the facts in ie weather, injuries and rest.
so this creates test 2
what will the line be on the lakers with James on a minute restriction and if you can give an accurate line close to closing on that you are on the right track!
Old Timer teaches the simplest and probably the most important message, Create a fair line
I take that message a step further I say create a fair line and if that line is not VERY SUPER close to the closing line you are not measuring correctly.
READ
sharper
black cat in a coal cellar
both are really good reads
and if your skill level is above this soapbox moment I apologize for making you strain through it and if not I hope this helps!
Dan - i dont bet BB at all - any League, but i still enjoying seeing your PRs and selections - i enjoy following and learning others process.
The main reason i started posting here in April instead of just lurking was bc i believe its a necessary evolutionary process as a haddicapper - to post your opinions to other credible and respectable players. Not to prove anything, just to learn and refine.
I wish I could get that feedback here but most here hate my voice and just pass over my picks and wont say if they are good or bad either way. I hate that because I am honest I might totally dislike a guy but if he has skill or helps me or does or says something done I still say thanks or good job or that dont make sense but some of these experienced guys here cant get past that I talk too much!
Comments
they mean dick , trust me , put blinders on buddy
If anyone is on them here GL.
basically I agree for once with what he says
There is no significance. These are people providing information that they think people might find interesting and they make money providing that type of information or giving the appearance of having knowledge. I have seen many people provide this type of information. I have seen very few actually use it except for people to maybe provide some backing for a pick in which case it is mostly just provided as reading material.
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this sums it up pretty well
The reason so many of the angles you hear arent being reflected in the line is because the market knows theyre nonsense. How can this team be laying -150 when theyre 3-9 on Thursdays?! Market prices arent influenced by irrelevant trivia.
Think about the talent that shapes those 150 team versions rather than trivia if you want to bet smart in daily baseball.
They are just factoids that are provided as possible notes of interest. It seems like information a gambler might use to win a bet.
https://fairlay.com/market/ras-capper-preseason-nfl-picks-over-under/?referral=a599f4d5-c046-47db-a630-0fc0bcf2211f
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probably influential for people trying to pick winners and not create a fair line
It's really just fluff. It is the kind of thing you will see a lot on shows about gambling where guys have to talk a lot and don't have much to say. It's just content. More than anything, it makes someone that does not know much about gambling think they are really putting time into it and looking at all the angles.
WNBA All Stars 6 pts a minute is nearly NBA pace
they run about 4 pts a minute WNBA
NBA about 4.45 a minute
235 is 5.875 pm
NBA has ran about 7.3pm
so somewhere around 5.84 not 5.87
so 233.5
So I am taking under 236
WNBA great line value even though my pick was some BS formula STILL lose!
oh well we shall see
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since I am limited all communications in one thread it kind of makes it hard to find them with all the chat because this is the only place I can chat
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My CFL Projected Lines for this week
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
<colgroup><col style="width: 99px"><col width="50"><col width="54"></colgroup><tbody>
Blue Bombers
-11
Argonauts
52
Tiger-Cats
52.5
Roughriders
-1
Redblacks
-4
Alouettes
51
Eskimos
54
Stampeders
-5
</tbody>
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My Current CFL Power Rankings to be honest I dont think anyone else has better power rankings than I do if so can someone tell me who and where I could really use them
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
<colgroup><col style="width: 100px"><col width="100"></colgroup><tbody>
Team
Power
Blue Bombers
-5.97
Tiger Cats
-5.31
Stampeders
-5.09
Eskimos
-2.71
Roughriders
-2.45
Alouettes
4.00
Redblacks
-3.46
Argonauts
4.53
Lions
-1.58
</tbody>
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My Current WNBA Power Rankings same thing here if anyone knows of a good source of WNBA Power Rankings let me know
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
<colgroup><col style="width: 100px"><col width="100"></colgroup><tbody>
Team
Rankings
Mystics
-9.04
Sun
-5.47
Aces
-6.14
Sparks
-2.30
Mercury
-2.51
Storm
-2.22
Lynx
-2.65
Sky
-0.62
Fever
0.64
Wings
1.22
Liberty
1.20
Dream
1.10
</tbody>
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My WNBA projected lines for 7-30
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
<colgroup><col style="width: 43px"><col width="42"><col width="83"><col width="50"></colgroup><tbody>
Date
City
Teams
Mine
7/30
Phoe
Mercury
157
7/30
Wash
Mystics
-9
7/30
Chic
Sky
158.5
7/30
Conn
Sun
-7.5
7/30
Dall
Wings
152.5
7/30
Las
Aces
-10
</tbody>
CFL Ottawa -6
WNBA Wash Mystics +5,
Etc.
Not just your projected lines, et al.
I do as you can see here my picks but it is all mixed in a big pile of conversations, maybe I will put actual picks in ALL CAPS or something. I think some people like the Power Rankings and me and Jets play the what line do you have game which I enjoy. But I will try and clarify my picks a bit better. no one seems to interested in my picks really anyway, I am not sure anyone even sees them as more than something to laugh at, LOL
never stop communicating probably talk in my sleep IF I sleep
and about as clear as a mud puddle and I write like I am 5 years old ( maybe younger)
I will try this
BET
7/30 CLIPPERS -120
hope that will help!
The main reason i started posting here in April instead of just lurking was bc i believe its a necessary evolutionary process as a haddicapper - to post your opinions to other credible and respectable players. Not to prove anything, just to learn and refine.
if this is a hobby have fun and learn when and what you want
if this might possibly be more know that book ask a ton of ?s
how I rate cappers
I look at line the capper bet at and compare it to the closing line
capper bet Brooks +120 and he closes +124 and that happens kind often CAPPER SUCKS (personal opinion some feel different)
Pokerjoe taught me that anyone can give you a line on a game with the newspaper and a few stats but not many can adjust it down to what it will actually close at once we got the facts in ie weather, injuries and rest.
so this creates test 2
what will the line be on the lakers with James on a minute restriction and if you can give an accurate line close to closing on that you are on the right track!
Old Timer teaches the simplest and probably the most important message, Create a fair line
I take that message a step further I say create a fair line and if that line is not VERY SUPER close to the closing line you are not measuring correctly.
READ
sharper
black cat in a coal cellar
both are really good reads
and if your skill level is above this soapbox moment I apologize for making you strain through it and if not I hope this helps!
- - - Updated - - -
I wish I could get that feedback here but most here hate my voice and just pass over my picks and wont say if they are good or bad either way. I hate that because I am honest I might totally dislike a guy but if he has skill or helps me or does or says something done I still say thanks or good job or that dont make sense but some of these experienced guys here cant get past that I talk too much!
do you model the CFB and NFL? do you try and beat the line in the NFL?
I may post my #s here for upcoming season.