Yes. For posting purposes here i use Pinny on straight wagers - 5dimes for totals, Pinny does not offer totals except rare occasions. In general 5dimes is the Market Maker for combat sports.
Really interesting hypothetical from Bears QB Chase Daniel on the PI changes: Why wouldnt you, on third-and-long from midfield, outside the last two minutes, just throw a Hail Mary?
You know theres contact there. And you can challenge what you need to.
Really interesting hypothetical from Bears QB Chase Daniel on the PI changes: Why wouldnt you, on third-and-long from midfield, outside the last two minutes, just throw a Hail Mary?
You know theres contact there. And you can challenge what you need to.
It's been said that there will be no reviews on Hail Mary's. It's been said that with Hail Mary's you can always call a penalty on a Hail Mary. It's seems it will be a mess like the roughing the passer call the first few games until they got it under control.
been said or in the rules? seems to make perfect sense though, its kinda like that holding on the last play that teams do now. it just looks really bad and kinda takes away from the game for me in a way of course that is being a picky prick.
not sure what happened in the CFL but something is wrong, I am completely off on all sides and totals, will need to check for some sort of data error or something
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
<tbody>
Team
odds
my line
Team
Blue Bombers
-14.5
-11
Argonauts
48.5
52
Tiger-Cats
50.5
52.5
Roughriders
-2.5
-1
Redblacks
53.5
-4
Alouettes
-7.5
51
Eskimos
48.5
54
Stampeders
-1
-5
</tbody>
- - - Updated - - -
BETS
Blue Bombers Over 48.5
Argonauts +14.5
Redblacks +7.5
Stampeders -1
Eskimos Over 48.5
am with you on that tor game but ill wait i think it will go higher
my guesses were way way way off, I am doing an R&R as we speak. I also am running a little troubleshooter and see if any water is leaking out that CFL model, OUCH!
I am gonna be super upset if these lines move my way a ton but I really doubt that because of how bad off I am, horrible disappointed!
been said or in the rules? seems to make perfect sense though, its kinda like that holding on the last play that teams do now. it just looks really bad and kinda takes away from the game for me in a way of course that is being a picky prick.
It's been said by high above they'll will be no replays or PI calls on hail mary's. Now if you punch a guy in the head who's about to catch the ball that may change. But it was said officially.
am actually happy with my lines.That win/tor line is wacked , you think they would open that game any lower then 14 ,tor sucks but the great equalizer is the point spread. Where it SHOULD be is the secret right ?
My other lines are not bad imo.
It's been said by high above they'll will be no replays or PI calls on hail mary's. Now if you punch a guy in the head who's about to catch the ball that may change. But it was said officially.
seems like a shaky space for now but of course they will clean it up once they start using it of course. the catch rule look at all its been through
I really only can give my opinion on the UFC promotion. The market is more efficient than when I started a couple years ago, but nowhere near efficient as you're more mature markets.
I believe CLV important in any market, but much less so in the UFC. The lines are very volatile partly due to Casual and degenerate money pushing around the lines more easily and the information asymmetry in an area that's not very mature IMO. Also the unpredictability of locking two men in a cage in unarmed combat it's just a chaotic event in of itself.
I think pinny is as efficient as it can be given the circumstances - probably best to get an average with the market maker also not just pinny.
danny boy, let me ask you something concerning the wnba....when capping the NBA, i come up with my line and adjust off SAG sos '
I cant do that with the wnba , those lines I post arent adjusted for SOS , my question/questions are , do you sos in your line and do you know of anyone that gives out SOS figures like sagarin.
Its very common to see a +185 dog in a UFC prelim fight move to a -140 fav in a day - which im happy to go against market with alot of those moves.
Imagine that ML move being a commonplace in the more mature markets we bet into?
And i am serious, if you run that efficiency data for the UFC I would like to see it! I wasnt trying to be a D*ck.
I am trying to scrape the MMA data so I can establish what the efficiency is on a few fighters to get an idea, the problem with MMA just like boxing is the limited number of fights.
say a guy is avg line 100
but he has 7 wins 3 losses
the avg line of 100 would say he should be 4-4
and that is just not enough data to say the line is not efficient directly on one player, so what I will do is try do the whole market and see how close it is that MIGHT provide enough data to believe it.
not sure it is going to be possible, I am really clueless on how they do it, maybe that is why it goes from +130 to -160 on a fighter in a matter of a day. I would guess Pinnacle probably pre sells these to "experts" and makes a line after these guys pick it to a decent number and then they move it fast on money because of the lack of data.
say Johnson is -150 avg and is his avg opponents line is -150 and he is fighting Jones and he is -150 avg and his avg opponent is 100
I would imagine that would make an opener of Johnson -150 and they move fast from there but not sure, will need some digging. My kid is out of school so my time is cut down right now but I surely will investigate.
no comment on Massey that even seems worse but if it works for you, I cant deny they are famous!
- - - Updated - - -
Lawler last 10 avg line 2.09
and he went 6-4 in those ten fights
so not bad of course you are using very little data but that is pretty believable right?
now Covington is avg line 1.39
and he was 9-1 in those last 10 fights
so he should win about 70% of the time minus vig
and he won 90% of the time
Covington 1.39 is -256
Lawler 2.09 so +109
so Covington -265 without giving any odd weight to last 10 opponents
and the line is currently -240ish right so not bad
to tighten it up we need to do this exact same process for their last 10 oppenents and the last 10 opponents of all those last 10 fought so we can get a tighter line for the fight between Lawler and Covington
but with what we just did I would say Covington -240 is probably within margin and that would mean a no bet but if I had to take someone I think -265 is closer to fair so I would take Covington -240 even though that is probably not enough to cover the margin ( not sure on margin size yet) and that is without doing the homework on the last 10 opponents and their last 10 opponents, if I can get it to scrape we should be able to get that data pretty fast into a spreadsheet though.
anyway that was fun LOL
but my fair line with limited data and no strength of line opponents would be Cov -265
- - - Updated - - -
data looks simple to scrape, do you know how to scrape?
oh shoot it looks like it opened at -265 and has moved down to -240ish now, that is funny might be how they figure the opener kinda like I did it but I am sure they do the last 10 of the last 10 too for sure
Im completely ignorant when it comes to modeling. Would this be considered a top-down approach? Im currently driving...when i stop ill get my notebook and give you what i belive is the fair line. Completely different approach obviously but i like the way you think.
Comments
do you know where to get closing lines for MMA?
Archives
with that info you shoule be able to easily see how well you are doing on MMA
i got -223 using my simple math
- - - Updated - - -
little scared of wang but Rochette way out does him on avg line, only thing scares me is the China China connection
- - - Updated - - -
put a few bucks on it never know!
https://i.imgur.com/OkQ6pSa.png
- - - Updated - - -
I think the line is sitting right at -200 because people are scared of the China connection, no other explanation I can find for only -200
- - - Updated - - -
now its moving -213 pinnacle and still moving!
is the market efficient, is pinnys line efficient?
how are you doing against the closing line?
line sank back down and he got destroyed in 2 sets, toilet sound and whoof bye $1800
bad line and loss!
Really interesting hypothetical from Bears QB Chase Daniel on the PI changes: Why wouldnt you, on third-and-long from midfield, outside the last two minutes, just throw a Hail Mary?
You know theres contact there. And you can challenge what you need to.
It's been said that there will be no reviews on Hail Mary's. It's been said that with Hail Mary's you can always call a penalty on a Hail Mary. It's seems it will be a mess like the roughing the passer call the first few games until they got it under control.
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
<tbody>
Team
odds
my line
Team
Blue Bombers
-14.5
-11
Argonauts
48.5
52
Tiger-Cats
50.5
52.5
Roughriders
-2.5
-1
Redblacks
53.5
-4
Alouettes
-7.5
51
Eskimos
48.5
54
Stampeders
-1
-5
</tbody>
- - - Updated - - -
BETS
Blue Bombers Over 48.5
Argonauts +14.5
Redblacks +7.5
Stampeders -1
Eskimos Over 48.5
my guesses were way way way off, I am doing an R&R as we speak. I also am running a little troubleshooter and see if any water is leaking out that CFL model, OUCH!
I am gonna be super upset if these lines move my way a ton but I really doubt that because of how bad off I am, horrible disappointed!
It's been said by high above they'll will be no replays or PI calls on hail mary's. Now if you punch a guy in the head who's about to catch the ball that may change. But it was said officially.
My other lines are not bad imo.
seems like a shaky space for now but of course they will clean it up once they start using it of course. the catch rule look at all its been through
I believe CLV important in any market, but much less so in the UFC. The lines are very volatile partly due to Casual and degenerate money pushing around the lines more easily and the information asymmetry in an area that's not very mature IMO. Also the unpredictability of locking two men in a cage in unarmed combat it's just a chaotic event in of itself.
I think pinny is as efficient as it can be given the circumstances - probably best to get an average with the market maker also not just pinny.
I have not Dan, but i have a feeling you will tell me
Imagine that ML move being a commonplace in the more mature markets we bet into?
And i am serious, if you run that efficiency data for the UFC I would like to see it! I wasnt trying to be a D*ck.
I cant do that with the wnba , those lines I post arent adjusted for SOS , my question/questions are , do you sos in your line and do you know of anyone that gives out SOS figures like sagarin.
thank you
https://i.imgur.com/h0LUo10.png
there is only one source I know of for WNBA power rankings or really anything on them
https://www.statfox.com/wnba/power/
and there power rankings are horrible imho
here is how their ratings compare to my power rankings
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
<colgroup><col style="width: 54px"><col width="45"><col width="43"><col width="61"></colgroup><tbody>
Team
Rating
Points
Rankings
Mystics
79
-7.75
-9.04
Sun
76
-4.75
-5.47
Aces
76
-4.75
-6.14
Sparks
73
-1.75
-2.30
Mercury
73
-1.75
-2.51
Storm
73
-1.75
-2.22
Lynx
71
0.25
-2.65
Sky
71
0.25
-0.62
Fever
67
4.25
0.64
Wings
66
5.25
1.22
Liberty
66
5.25
1.20
Dream
64
7.25
1.10
</tbody>
- - - Updated - - -
the points would be what their rating would be equal to in line value and the rankings are my power rankings
example in sky vs fever neutral court
Statfox has Sky -4
I have -1.5ish
and I would bet that mine are a ton closer than theirs, they dont include anything else other than their overall rankings
I am trying to scrape the MMA data so I can establish what the efficiency is on a few fighters to get an idea, the problem with MMA just like boxing is the limited number of fights.
say a guy is avg line 100
but he has 7 wins 3 losses
the avg line of 100 would say he should be 4-4
and that is just not enough data to say the line is not efficient directly on one player, so what I will do is try do the whole market and see how close it is that MIGHT provide enough data to believe it.
not sure it is going to be possible, I am really clueless on how they do it, maybe that is why it goes from +130 to -160 on a fighter in a matter of a day. I would guess Pinnacle probably pre sells these to "experts" and makes a line after these guys pick it to a decent number and then they move it fast on money because of the lack of data.
say Johnson is -150 avg and is his avg opponents line is -150 and he is fighting Jones and he is -150 avg and his avg opponent is 100
I would imagine that would make an opener of Johnson -150 and they move fast from there but not sure, will need some digging. My kid is out of school so my time is cut down right now but I surely will investigate.
- - - Updated - - -
https://www.masseyratings.com/wnba/ratings
- - - Updated - - -
Lawler last 10 avg line 2.09
and he went 6-4 in those ten fights
so not bad of course you are using very little data but that is pretty believable right?
and he was 9-1 in those last 10 fights
so he should win about 70% of the time minus vig
and he won 90% of the time
Covington 1.39 is -256
Lawler 2.09 so +109
so Covington -265 without giving any odd weight to last 10 opponents
and the line is currently -240ish right so not bad
to tighten it up we need to do this exact same process for their last 10 oppenents and the last 10 opponents of all those last 10 fought so we can get a tighter line for the fight between Lawler and Covington
but with what we just did I would say Covington -240 is probably within margin and that would mean a no bet but if I had to take someone I think -265 is closer to fair so I would take Covington -240 even though that is probably not enough to cover the margin ( not sure on margin size yet) and that is without doing the homework on the last 10 opponents and their last 10 opponents, if I can get it to scrape we should be able to get that data pretty fast into a spreadsheet though.
anyway that was fun LOL
but my fair line with limited data and no strength of line opponents would be Cov -265
- - - Updated - - -
data looks simple to scrape, do you know how to scrape?
https://i.imgur.com/U0V9gLE.png
- - - Updated - - -
I also would be willing to guess that line moves closer to -265 I bet ya!
- - - Updated - - -
but without doing the last 10 and the last 10s 10 we really are limited, we need to scrape it