Betting Talk

Random thoughts and stuff

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  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    kane wrote: »
    It's pretty fucking hard to lose at home as a 31 point chalk, somehow Okla managed to get it done

    Yes, especially when Iowa State's starting qb quit the team yesterday and the backup played like a Manning. Well we can't blame Stoops.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    If you are looking for a glaring sun angle for hitters today @Chavez Ravine......forget it. Late afternoon LAD games are tough on hitters mainly in August. October ain't bad.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Today's bottom of the 8th shows why Nat skipper Baker is not a good manager. Why didn't he just walk Rizzo? Even he(AR) was surprised. Makes Girardi's blunder look mild.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    I didn't see the game I was busy but it appears he played lefty vs lefty and after seeing the replay somebody has to make that catch.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Just a rank move. Situation: Tie game man on second 1 out. Kintzler K's Bryant for 2 out. Instead of walking Rizzo and pitching to Contreras with a force on any base he pulls Kintzler for Lefty O.Perez. If Baker did his homework and played % he'd know that Rizzo is not intimidated by lefties and owns Perez.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Okay I didn't know that he took kintzler out to bring in Perez to face Rizzo instead of walking him and have Kintzler face Contreras. Got it
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Forgot to mention Dusty is just another Joe Madden, players like him people in general like him but as for the X's and O's not their strong suit.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Agree. If I had to pick 1 guy to manage my team it would be Buck Showalter. I really believe that some of these alleged elite coaches and managers sometimes wilt under pressure. Don't get me wrong, it's not easy but....... LaSorda once asked a second guesser riding him from the stands during an exhibition game immediately preceding a tough decision, " Ok wiseguy what would you do now?" The guy gave some lame response. Tommy then told him to STFU.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    "Washington Nationals manager, Dusty Baker, once again proves he has no idea what he’s doing. We saw Dusty choose to pitch to Rizzo with an open base in Game 2 and Rizzo promptly smacked an RBI double. You’d think after seeing it happen in Game 2 that good ol’ Dusty would have just put Rizzo on...........Nope"

    http://sportsmockery.com/2017/10/anthony-rizzo-clear-message-dusty-baker-delivering-game-winning-hit-today/
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Francona just pressed the panic button and pulls Kluber after 3 2/3rd. Come on Geez
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Troubling signs for Aaron Judge. Have the opposing pitchers caught up to him? He's looking more and more likea Dave Kingman or a BB Balboni.
  • zibdibblezibdibble Junior Member
    edited October 2017
    Recency bias because of one series?
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Ronbets wrote: »
    Troubling signs for Aaron Judge. Have the opposing pitchers caught up to him? He's looking more and more likea Dave Kingman or a BB Balboni.

    O please they caught up to him after the break and how did his Sept go. Kid's first series has a bad one and people want to say he's done already.
    100 Walks, 100 RBIs and 100 Runs Scored a .627 SLG and a 1049 OPS Yea I guess your right another kingman lol
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Since Home Run Derby his mechanics have changed. Post all-star break a strike out machine and rally killer. OT, weren't you the guy knocking the pro-strike out era? Let's be consistent.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Yes I believe in putting balls in play nothing good can happen with K's. The best player in baseball K's a lot doesn't mean anything today. My opinion doesn't matter what matters is the kid will be a star for years he's that good. His k's will always be there but so will most of the best ball players in the game. But to say that he maybe another Kingman or Bye Bye is for lack of a better word silly. He's proven that with his Sept.
    So let's stop being silly with those comments.
  • zibdibblezibdibble Junior Member
    edited October 2017
    Narrative aside nothing mathematically suggests any luck on his part this year. He is also 25 and it's silly to suggest that pitchers can make adjustments but young hitters can't.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Since his Home Run Derby Showcase, his BA dipped OVER 100 points. Who made the adjustments?
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    To clarify, since HRD he hit 100 points less than first half.
  • zibdibblezibdibble Junior Member
    edited October 2017
    Your stance is rested on batting average and strikeouts? FWIW K% was nearly identical 1H and 2H since you are looking at splits.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    What is your stance on the production drop off? Did you mention luck?
  • zibdibblezibdibble Junior Member
    edited October 2017
    I agree that pitchers adjusted but not to the extent that Judge's projections should be considered comparable to the two players you mentioned? He lead baseball in WAR by a significant margin. As I said it seems recency bias of a bad 5 game playoff series might be contributing to that.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    My reason for his decline also considers:

    Throwing him 10 to 20% less fast balls

    Throwing him more sliders/curves

    Throwing him a big reduction in off speed lollipops.

    *Agree 'slight' hyperbole when mention Balboni. lol Atleast I induced a couple of participants here to comment.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Ronbets wrote: »
    What is your stance on the production drop off? Did you mention luck?

    I won't even discuss this any further. Your kidding with this question right?
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    zibdibble wrote: »
    I agree that pitchers adjusted but not to the extent that Judge's projections should be considered comparable to the two players you mentioned? He lead baseball in WAR by a significant margin. As I said it seems recency bias of a bad 5 game playoff series might be contributing to that.

    Baseball is a game of continuous adjustments. It seems to me he adjusted real good in Sept. This could be a career year but this kid will do damage (Barring Injury) for a very long time.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    I won't even discuss this any further. Your kidding with this question right?

    WTH R U talking about? I'm referring ur post after the word luck was mentioned??
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    I'm just not sold on this over hyped NY product YET. If he played in Milwaukee or better yet Atlanta we prolly wouldn't be drooling. Speaking of Atlanta, Freddie Freeman would be hearing HOF potential if he played in the Bronx. He ain't too bad but quiet in the Atl market. NY guys like the late Mercer and Donny Baseball that get hyped outta the azz.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    I don't think FF has to worry. I'm sure you know that the public doesn't get vote for the HOF so FF and players who play in a small markets don't have to worry. I think there's a few pitchers from Atlanta that didn't worry. You're entitled to your opinion about Judge or any other player but don't dump on him because he's not doing well in the playoffs. Just like Bonds who until 2002 had the rep as a choke in the playoffs.

    He's a young kid and maybe getting a little over anxious his first year on the big stage for the NY Yankees. He was chasing pitchers out of the strike zone after the break and adjusted and had a great Sept he'll adjust again. Not easy when a man is throwing 95+ and you have adjust to a breaking ball down and away but he did it once and will do it again.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    I guess I just don't get this "new wave" managing.
    Situation: Bottom 5 cubs 1-0. 8th hitter leadoff double. Roberts yanks Hill(79pc,8ks) for NY reject Granderson(lefty vs Lester). Regardless of outcome, is this a sane move?
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    I was watching back and forth with the football game needing the Giants to win which leaves 13 of us left with a 9k survivor pot.

    After Utley PH for Hernandez he needed to replace Hernandez who was playing LF and the only two left were Grandy and Ethier both lefties. Grandy has seen Lester to the tune of 51 AB's and has 15 hits with 3 HR's and 6 RBI's but also 15k's. He was the better of the two he had left.
    As I said I'm not making excuses and I don't know why if Culberson led off with a double why didn't he have Hill bunt him to third.
    Like I said I didn't see the inning and actually miss quite a lot of the game. It sounds weird. I could discuss playoff strategy all day long and I think most managers make moves just to make moves.

    I'm not a big believer in bringing starters in the 4th/5th inning like they do. Unless there not going to be used as starters in the series. They have to forego their routine as starters and it takes them longer to warm up it's just so different for them. But that's a discussion for another day.Hey I thought bringing Sale in the 4th was stupid but Farrell got away with it and then the moron instead of bringing in a relief pitcher for the 8th he sends Sale out and blows the game. Can't blame Sale. I couldn't believe he sent him out for the 8th after throwing 69 pitches on very short rest.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    My Mistake there's 10 left.
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