Left the blinds open before I went to sleep because I knew I would wake up ealy since the windown faces to the east, even though I didn't really have anything to do. Tossed and turned most of the night during one of those periods people go through where they replay mistakes they've made in the past and wished they'd had enough sense not to do what they did.
Cutter and I had a long conversation on the drive back about following picks. His entire idea is that Pinnacle on game day is the only guide anyone should ever follow. The groups out there who are betting dogs at the best possible number are the only ones winning. Straight betting is too much of a grind during baseball, and it's absolutely necessary to bet correlated parlays even with the added variance.
I understand his position, but I still think that there are people like buffetgambler who occasionally come along and do things that are completely above the rim. Getting down on his bets at the best possible number and betting them according to Kelly criterion is going to determine how successful this season winds up being for me. I had been underbetting his picks, especially the ones on favorites, and I'm still not sure how to get over this. There have been times wen he's given out a side after I was convinced that it was the dead wrong side of a game. Boston/Detroit two days ago was a perfect example of this, and my initial handicap of the game was that Boston at +160 was tons of line value. As it is, I wound up laying the favorite for a medium sized bet and cashing the ticket. While only betting underdogs at great numbers isn't a bad strategy, some of the easiest winners from his thread have been heavy favorites, and two years ago, I know I never would have been able to bring myself to make those kinds of bets.
Slow day for blackjack yesterday, wandered around trying to wong into shoes. Got into one and the unning count quickly got up to +18. Lost six of the first seven hands, before finally making a small comeback. Had 125 bet and got dealt 44 against a dealer's five. Split and got a king on the first, so had to stand. Drew a six on the second, doubled and got a five. The dealer wound up making his hand. I wound up losing 150 for the day, where with any luck I should have won at least 500.
Walked over to the Riverside and talked with the waitress who is in heat for Cutter, and it wound up being the highlight of the day.
923 Rockies rline -125
My first DCS fade in four years. I cannot say how much I bet on this, but if I lose, my life will be in serious danger. Thank you, that is all.
923 Rockies rline -125
My first DCS fade in four years. I cannot say how much I bet on this, but if I lose, my life will be in serious danger. Thank you, that is all.
Wednesday wound up being a slow day, wandered around betting, went to the movies and saw Hangover 3, went to the hypnotist at the Riverside, played BJ and went to sleep. Woke up Thursday morning and bet the BG picks, and Cutter drove in from Vegas. Gambled with him for a while and went to the wet t-shirt contest at the Loser's Lounge. I had way too much to drink after the games and was in fine form. Was going to type out the story of how it went down, but when I did, it was nowhere near as funny as I remember it being. The quote of the night was when a 400 lb black girl got up and stripped. Cutter looked at her and said, "If I were at a strip club, and she was there working, I would gladly take her to the champagne room and give her my visa card."
Woke up in a suite at the Pioneer, but have to switch rooms by 11. Had breakfast at the Riverside and bet the Padres +111, even though the game seems like a trap.
Back in Jean again. Wasn't happy about having to leave Laughlin, but almost every single hote room in the city was full, so I had no place to stay. Finally broke my losing streak at Blackjack. Had a run of 3-4 days where I absolutely could not lose, and it was enough to make up for about a month of small losses.
Spent yesterday driving around Henderson betting the Buffetgambler picks, and a few small bets that I liked. Wound up betting more than usual since I had more cash and it wound up being perfect timing. Got back to the Gold Strike after watching the games and realized that my comps ran out. Played fpdw to earn comps and they checked me into one of their better rooms. TBC is no longer here. Talked to one of the pit bosses here who reads the TBC blog, and he says that management here studies all data from the vbj machine. Tbc has been a huge loser on the machine over the last six months, and his figures do no remotely correspond with what he reports on his blog. IOW, he must have some other form of income and he uses that to live off of. I'm not really that surprised, but it's strange that anyone would go that far out of their way to lie to anonymous strangers on the internet.
Woke up early and bet the White Sox, Dbacks and Giants and was pleased that I got the release number on each. Bet each of them for full Kelly, so by 1 oclock, my net worth will have changed by a small percentage.
Other than that, no BP updates. I've been putting in very long hours, and it's rare that I spend less than 10 hours a day gambling. It bothers me sometimes that I haven't been spending more time with other hobbies, but I'm on pace to have a ton of cash for football season.
At the South Point.
Bet 908 Dbacks at even money. Greinke has the biggest road/home dichotomy, and he's now a road favorite against a first place team who's won 5 in a row. Give me all of that.
I have me down at 53-67, +2.12 units.
This doesn't count as an official record since I've been posting the lines I bet the game at, as opposed to what the current Pinnacle price at the time of the bet. In many cases, the reason I bet a particular side was because I was getting a line that was better than Pinnacle, so my official record is probably right at breakeven. This thread is really just a way for me to pass time since I live on the road and have no attachments.
969 White Sox +230 looks like pod for me. Quintana's stats for thr year are slightly better than Verlander's, and the line seems to be based more on his reputation than anything else.
Ran into someone yesterday who was recommended by a friend as one the top gamblers in Vegas. We talked for a while and he taught me a system he has about betting the score in the first inning prop. I wound up crunching the numbers for today; only one bet stood out as fitting his system, and of course I bet it. Laid -130 that there wouldn't be a score in the first inning of KC/NYY.
Also like the Cubs, but am waiting for the line to possbily steam upwards. Angels are nothing special, and Pujols looks like he's playing hurt. Added to that, the Cubs have actually showed signs of improvement lately, and they should be a good bet as a home dog during the second half of the season.
Still the same person with no real updates to provide. I'm back in Laughlin, it's 120 degrees outside, and I generally have to walk about seven miles outside a day in order to adequately shop for lines. Played a ton of blackjack on this trip already, and I'm stuck at even. Win 700 at a session, lose it back in the next one. Win 700 at a session, lose it back at the next one. The only positive is that I am continuing to earn more comps that I thought I would be able to, and I never have to pay for a hotel room anywhere in town. I'm staying at the Pioneer for the weekend, even though they weren't able to give me a suite. Headed to Southern California for the all-star break. Someone I know told me that there are plenty of Indian casinos that have great shoe games, so he and I will be wandering around looking for tables to wong into. I'm relieved he came to me with that idea, otherwise I'd be stuck here in the heat with nothing to bet on.
I actually bet both CFL dogs today. Winnipeg +6 fading the steam seems to be the right side against a Hamilton team that doesn't look like anything special. Hamilton seems like a team that knows they're going nowhere, and can't trust them to lay any significant number.
Edmonton +3 1/2 is more of a hunch bet. Step down in class for BC after opening the season with two very tough games against Calgary and Toronto. Now they have to go lay points on the road against a last place team, so have to think their focus and motivation won't be as great. Edmonton might be a touch underrated after an opening day loss where they didn't play anywhere near as badly as the score indicated.
actually have a date later, so possible BP story on the way.
Oh yeah, forgot about this.
A friend of mine had set me up on a blind date with a girl he knew that he said would be a perfect match for me. We met for Thai food at some random place in Vegas near the Hilton. For those of you who have followed my posting over the years, you know that my romantic history has been, well, disastrous. I seem to be a lightning rod for women with Borderline Personality Disorder or some other debilitating psychological problems. Normal, ordinary women who have their lives together run from me.
This girl's name was Amanda, and she is the singer in a reggae band. She was average height, average weight, average looks, except that her hair was dyed several different flourescent colors. The more she opened up, the more it seemed her conversation was actually interesting. She is a huge video game junkie, and she still has an old school Nintendo that she plays regularly. Legend of Zelda is her favorite game, and she bragged that she can actually beat the first quest without dying. I have Original Zelda on Gamecube, but I didn't bring it with me when I left for Nevada, but it's still my all-time favorite game. So things were actually going somewhat well. Then I told a joke about something, and she laughed. There's no delicate way of putting this. She had the absolute worst set of teeth I have ever seen. As in, it was obvious she never went to an orthodontist when she was younger, and she has obviously not been for a cleaning in years, and some of them were missing. For whatever reason, I'm just not attracted to women with bad teeth, so I knew it was just about over. But, the more we talked, the more it seemed we actually had a great deal in common. I told her a few BP stories, and she laughed like crazy. Her stories about being a musician in Vegas and all over the west coast were equally funny. So we wound up having what I thought was a great time. If nothing else, I was willing to see her again. She texted me the next day, "im sorry bc u seem like such a nice guy but theres just not any chemistry between us, good luck, im sure u will find some1."
Another unit on Winnipeg +3 1/2 for the second half. All the momentum, and getting the 2nd half kickoff. Hard to believe, but you can actually bet these at Bill Hill.
Great blackjack story from just now that falls right into the "You had to have been there, but trust me it was awesome" variety. I was somewhere in Laughlin in an uncrowded pit. Alone at the table and the count quickly got to +10. An old man well into his seventies came over and pulled a worn out 20 out of his pocket and bought 4 red chips. In these situations, I usually try to discourage the other player from joining, so I said, "You don't want to play at this table. This dealer is way too hot, winning every hand," even though I was ahead a few bets. He waved that off.
Cards come out. I bet 100 and got a blackjack. He got dealt a 19, a face and a nine. The dealers upcard was a six. he didnt make a hand signal, and it looked like he was agonizing over what to do. This was annoying since it meant the pace was going to slow down to a crawl. Finally, he put out another red and put it next to his original bet. The dealer was confused, "Are you sure you want to double down?"
"Yeah!"
The dealer turned around and mumbled, "Doubling down on hard 19."
He put the card down face down. Turned over a 4, hit it with a ten. Then he turned over the double down card. It was the 2 of spades.
"HOLY SHIT, HOW DID YOU DO THAT?"
"Huh?"
"You don't understand. I've been gambling my whole life, and that might be the greatest thing I'Ve ever seen. HOW DID YOU DO THAT?"
"I just had a feeling."
He left two minutes later and disappeared into the crowd.
Left Laughlin early Monday morning and started driving south. Drove through Needles, drove south of there along a two lane highway that had absolutely no scenery anywhere on the side of it. Reached I-10 after a few hours and started driving west. I had a bad feeling about being there, remembered the last time I went to southern California four years ago and how much that wound up changing my life. Stopped in at a place called Spotlight 29, somewhere near Coachella, none of their VP looked playable, and most of the blackjack tables were full. Drove from there to a place called the Aqua Caliente, and it was more of the same. Incredibly crowded, especially for a weekday during the middle of the day; these places must be raking in money, and it's no wonder business in Vegas has been steadily decreasing over the years. No playable games anywhere, so we kept driving west until we were in the middle of Palm Springs, a town I visited once before, back in 1997. It looked vaguely familiar. We wandered around downtown and checked in at a place called the Spa, got a room comped for two nights. Headed into their Platinum room, and a pro we recognized was playing VP there; won't say his name or who he was, except that he was connected to the goings-on at Beyondcapping a few years ago. A woman in her mid-sixties came in and sat down at the machine next to me. Tried to flirt with her and got nowhere. Was told later that she's a professional from Vegas who's been an AP gambler her whole adult life. I never would have put her on that, and I mean that as a compliment. I had only gotten four hours of sleep the night before, so I went back to the room and practically fell into a coma. Woke up twelve hours later and still felt tired. Drank coffee and wandered around the Spa, played a few shoes and found a deuces wild game. It was Illinois deuces with high progressives attached, so it was set to payback 102%. Wound up playing the machine for hours and ran badly on it. I had won a great deal at blackjack the last night in Laughlin, and I wound up losing half of that back in eight hours. Went for a walk outside, and noticed it was foggy outside. There was actually a forest fire going on nearby, and the sky around Palm Springs has smoke clouds thick enough to block out the sun and the sky is an odd shade of orange. All the cars parked outside had layers of ash covering them. Walked around, got a haircut, tried to find something to do downtown and was reminded of how out of touch I am with what normal people like to spend their time doing. Went to sleep early again, woke up and watched coverage of the aftermath of the Zimmerman trial. I had been following the case very closely, and remain at a loss as to what is so compelling about it. Two people got into a fight. One of them had a gun. That sort of thing happens every single day somewhere in this country.
Headed back east towards Coachella and found a place called Augustine. They had a game called, "Almost positive deuces", very similar to NSUD, with a reported payback of 99.9%. Wednesday their slot club gives away four times points, so we figured there was a good chance several pros would be there grinding. Instead, we had the place to ourselves, and the place was filled with people who looked like their lives have no meaning. I wound up playing for about four hours, and I took stock of the final total. I had lost exactly five dollars. Dinner was comped, so we ate like animals and began the drive north. Passed through Joshua Tree National Park and saw some unbelievably beautiful scenery as the sun was setting, passed through Twentynine Palms, and then saw several little mining communities. Made it into Laughlin just before 11 and immediately got the computer out to start handicapping baseball for Friday.
This is so interesting. You do things I have wanted to do for the last 20 years and never done it. You neglected to say who was with you like it means anything to anybody.
My wife and I have wanted to travel the whole state and stop and see what we could accomplish gambling but still after 45 years have never done it. Still it is my intention to do this before I am dead (75)! Still very active but live in Pittsburgh with a home in Henderson for 16 years.
Amazes me that you get comped without play or I assume. Like you pulled into the SPA and was comped two(2) nights?
This is so interesting. You do things I have wanted to do for the last 20 years and never done it. You neglected to say who was with you like it means anything to anybody.
My wife and I have wanted to travel the whole state and stop and see what we could accomplish gambling but still after 45 years have never done it. Still it is my intention to do this before I am dead (75)! Still very active but live in Pittsburgh with a home in Henderson for 16 years.
Amazes me that you get comped without play or I assume. Like you pulled into the SPA and was comped two(2) nights?
I hope you keep writing as this is enjoyable.
You make tradeoffs. I told myself when I turned thirty that I wanted to settle down and get married. I've been in two relationships in my life and they were both disasters. (I wrote about both of them extensively in my signature). You talk about me doing things that you've wanted to do for twenty years and never done, but the simple fact is that right now I'm sitting in a motel room, and no one knows where I am. Women get sick of me after two weeks, and I envy your ability to maintain a stable marriage for as long as you have.
While a part of me yearns to settle down, the knowledge that it didn't work when I tried it keeps me on the road. I really don't have a family, so I have no obligations that hold me down to any specific place. Nevada wins because it's the place where you can legally bet sports. If sportsbetting were only legal in, say, Vermont, then that's where I'd go to live.
I went on the trip with Cutter (in case you don't know, he's a frequent poster on other forums, and he was one of the founders of beyondcapping). He bets bigger than I do, especially at video poker, so he earned most of the comps. I think an hour after he had started playing at the Spa, a host came up to him and offered him a room for two nights.
I'm definitely going to keep writing, because it's one of the only ways I have of passing the time. Football season is going to be here before we know it, and I'll probably have a great deal more material when that happens.
Comments
Cutter and I had a long conversation on the drive back about following picks. His entire idea is that Pinnacle on game day is the only guide anyone should ever follow. The groups out there who are betting dogs at the best possible number are the only ones winning. Straight betting is too much of a grind during baseball, and it's absolutely necessary to bet correlated parlays even with the added variance.
I understand his position, but I still think that there are people like buffetgambler who occasionally come along and do things that are completely above the rim. Getting down on his bets at the best possible number and betting them according to Kelly criterion is going to determine how successful this season winds up being for me. I had been underbetting his picks, especially the ones on favorites, and I'm still not sure how to get over this. There have been times wen he's given out a side after I was convinced that it was the dead wrong side of a game. Boston/Detroit two days ago was a perfect example of this, and my initial handicap of the game was that Boston at +160 was tons of line value. As it is, I wound up laying the favorite for a medium sized bet and cashing the ticket. While only betting underdogs at great numbers isn't a bad strategy, some of the easiest winners from his thread have been heavy favorites, and two years ago, I know I never would have been able to bring myself to make those kinds of bets.
Slow day for blackjack yesterday, wandered around trying to wong into shoes. Got into one and the unning count quickly got up to +18. Lost six of the first seven hands, before finally making a small comeback. Had 125 bet and got dealt 44 against a dealer's five. Split and got a king on the first, so had to stand. Drew a six on the second, doubled and got a five. The dealer wound up making his hand. I wound up losing 150 for the day, where with any luck I should have won at least 500.
Walked over to the Riverside and talked with the waitress who is in heat for Cutter, and it wound up being the highlight of the day.
My first DCS fade in four years. I cannot say how much I bet on this, but if I lose, my life will be in serious danger. Thank you, that is all.
You still alive Benny?
Yeah, I bet BG's picks for twice as much, so I got a bailout.
Woke up in a suite at the Pioneer, but have to switch rooms by 11. Had breakfast at the Riverside and bet the Padres +111, even though the game seems like a trap.
Just what I wanted a tee ball game does F*** Cabrera ever go a day and not hit a home run or at less let him Solo shots. The Man is so sick
Spent yesterday driving around Henderson betting the Buffetgambler picks, and a few small bets that I liked. Wound up betting more than usual since I had more cash and it wound up being perfect timing. Got back to the Gold Strike after watching the games and realized that my comps ran out. Played fpdw to earn comps and they checked me into one of their better rooms. TBC is no longer here. Talked to one of the pit bosses here who reads the TBC blog, and he says that management here studies all data from the vbj machine. Tbc has been a huge loser on the machine over the last six months, and his figures do no remotely correspond with what he reports on his blog. IOW, he must have some other form of income and he uses that to live off of. I'm not really that surprised, but it's strange that anyone would go that far out of their way to lie to anonymous strangers on the internet.
Woke up early and bet the White Sox, Dbacks and Giants and was pleased that I got the release number on each. Bet each of them for full Kelly, so by 1 oclock, my net worth will have changed by a small percentage.
Other than that, no BP updates. I've been putting in very long hours, and it's rare that I spend less than 10 hours a day gambling. It bothers me sometimes that I haven't been spending more time with other hobbies, but I'm on pace to have a ton of cash for football season.
Bet 908 Dbacks at even money. Greinke has the biggest road/home dichotomy, and he's now a road favorite against a first place team who's won 5 in a row. Give me all of that.
I have me down at 53-67, +2.12 units.
This doesn't count as an official record since I've been posting the lines I bet the game at, as opposed to what the current Pinnacle price at the time of the bet. In many cases, the reason I bet a particular side was because I was getting a line that was better than Pinnacle, so my official record is probably right at breakeven. This thread is really just a way for me to pass time since I live on the road and have no attachments.
Ran into someone yesterday who was recommended by a friend as one the top gamblers in Vegas. We talked for a while and he taught me a system he has about betting the score in the first inning prop. I wound up crunching the numbers for today; only one bet stood out as fitting his system, and of course I bet it. Laid -130 that there wouldn't be a score in the first inning of KC/NYY.
Also like the Cubs, but am waiting for the line to possbily steam upwards. Angels are nothing special, and Pujols looks like he's playing hurt. Added to that, the Cubs have actually showed signs of improvement lately, and they should be a good bet as a home dog during the second half of the season.
I actually bet both CFL dogs today. Winnipeg +6 fading the steam seems to be the right side against a Hamilton team that doesn't look like anything special. Hamilton seems like a team that knows they're going nowhere, and can't trust them to lay any significant number.
Edmonton +3 1/2 is more of a hunch bet. Step down in class for BC after opening the season with two very tough games against Calgary and Toronto. Now they have to go lay points on the road against a last place team, so have to think their focus and motivation won't be as great. Edmonton might be a touch underrated after an opening day loss where they didn't play anywhere near as badly as the score indicated.
Oh yeah, forgot about this.
A friend of mine had set me up on a blind date with a girl he knew that he said would be a perfect match for me. We met for Thai food at some random place in Vegas near the Hilton. For those of you who have followed my posting over the years, you know that my romantic history has been, well, disastrous. I seem to be a lightning rod for women with Borderline Personality Disorder or some other debilitating psychological problems. Normal, ordinary women who have their lives together run from me.
This girl's name was Amanda, and she is the singer in a reggae band. She was average height, average weight, average looks, except that her hair was dyed several different flourescent colors. The more she opened up, the more it seemed her conversation was actually interesting. She is a huge video game junkie, and she still has an old school Nintendo that she plays regularly. Legend of Zelda is her favorite game, and she bragged that she can actually beat the first quest without dying. I have Original Zelda on Gamecube, but I didn't bring it with me when I left for Nevada, but it's still my all-time favorite game. So things were actually going somewhat well. Then I told a joke about something, and she laughed. There's no delicate way of putting this. She had the absolute worst set of teeth I have ever seen. As in, it was obvious she never went to an orthodontist when she was younger, and she has obviously not been for a cleaning in years, and some of them were missing. For whatever reason, I'm just not attracted to women with bad teeth, so I knew it was just about over. But, the more we talked, the more it seemed we actually had a great deal in common. I told her a few BP stories, and she laughed like crazy. Her stories about being a musician in Vegas and all over the west coast were equally funny. So we wound up having what I thought was a great time. If nothing else, I was willing to see her again. She texted me the next day, "im sorry bc u seem like such a nice guy but theres just not any chemistry between us, good luck, im sure u will find some1."
Cards come out. I bet 100 and got a blackjack. He got dealt a 19, a face and a nine. The dealers upcard was a six. he didnt make a hand signal, and it looked like he was agonizing over what to do. This was annoying since it meant the pace was going to slow down to a crawl. Finally, he put out another red and put it next to his original bet. The dealer was confused, "Are you sure you want to double down?"
"Yeah!"
The dealer turned around and mumbled, "Doubling down on hard 19."
He put the card down face down. Turned over a 4, hit it with a ten. Then he turned over the double down card. It was the 2 of spades.
"HOLY SHIT, HOW DID YOU DO THAT?"
"Huh?"
"You don't understand. I've been gambling my whole life, and that might be the greatest thing I'Ve ever seen. HOW DID YOU DO THAT?"
"I just had a feeling."
He left two minutes later and disappeared into the crowd.
Headed back east towards Coachella and found a place called Augustine. They had a game called, "Almost positive deuces", very similar to NSUD, with a reported payback of 99.9%. Wednesday their slot club gives away four times points, so we figured there was a good chance several pros would be there grinding. Instead, we had the place to ourselves, and the place was filled with people who looked like their lives have no meaning. I wound up playing for about four hours, and I took stock of the final total. I had lost exactly five dollars. Dinner was comped, so we ate like animals and began the drive north. Passed through Joshua Tree National Park and saw some unbelievably beautiful scenery as the sun was setting, passed through Twentynine Palms, and then saw several little mining communities. Made it into Laughlin just before 11 and immediately got the computer out to start handicapping baseball for Friday.
My wife and I have wanted to travel the whole state and stop and see what we could accomplish gambling but still after 45 years have never done it. Still it is my intention to do this before I am dead (75)! Still very active but live in Pittsburgh with a home in Henderson for 16 years.
Amazes me that you get comped without play or I assume. Like you pulled into the SPA and was comped two(2) nights?
I hope you keep writing as this is enjoyable.
You make tradeoffs. I told myself when I turned thirty that I wanted to settle down and get married. I've been in two relationships in my life and they were both disasters. (I wrote about both of them extensively in my signature). You talk about me doing things that you've wanted to do for twenty years and never done, but the simple fact is that right now I'm sitting in a motel room, and no one knows where I am. Women get sick of me after two weeks, and I envy your ability to maintain a stable marriage for as long as you have.
While a part of me yearns to settle down, the knowledge that it didn't work when I tried it keeps me on the road. I really don't have a family, so I have no obligations that hold me down to any specific place. Nevada wins because it's the place where you can legally bet sports. If sportsbetting were only legal in, say, Vermont, then that's where I'd go to live.
I went on the trip with Cutter (in case you don't know, he's a frequent poster on other forums, and he was one of the founders of beyondcapping). He bets bigger than I do, especially at video poker, so he earned most of the comps. I think an hour after he had started playing at the Spa, a host came up to him and offered him a room for two nights.
I'm definitely going to keep writing, because it's one of the only ways I have of passing the time. Football season is going to be here before we know it, and I'll probably have a great deal more material when that happens.