rhinoceros
rhinoceros · Senior Member
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I've been on a lot of these unders based on extreme sentiment (when over 70% over at covers.com). It's been awful.
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went right through the 10 to 9.5. 10.5 now looks like a terrible number. Oh well. Let's see how it plays out.
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I LOVE anticonsenusus favorites. I'm all over FSU -10.5.
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a totals 1/2 pt is worth about 5c a pointspread 1/2 pt is worth about 7c
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I like this thread; too bad it died. Is Melo in tonight? The injury reports say no, the line movement says yes. I like the knicks either way. For several seasons, very end of the season bets on non-playoff teams vs playoff bound teams have worke…
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Tomorrow, Kyrie Irving out for the Cav's. Play on Cav's v Miami.
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LaMarcus Aldridge out tonight. Key player 1st game out is a bet ON . So bet Portland tonight.
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(Quote) I'm asking posters in this thread to speak up. Either a) i'm using these and it works--I'm winning or b) nah, it doesn't help.
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This is great stuff, ebe, and a ton of work. Thanks! Now for the big question: is it working? I'm not asking for a detailed record as that would be impossible, what with the judgement calls necessary. But a general, casual poll: who has been w…
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(Quote) That leaves me WAY on the wrong side of NewEng/Indy. If I saw this sooner, I might have stayed away.
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(Quote) yes, Obi. Covers shows the same thing--today's dogs are public darlings. It's very unusual that the public likes the dogs. I love anticonsensus faves, hence both faves today. Tomorrow's SD/Den game does not quite reach my sentiment thr…
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okay H, the play is to bet teams in their first game without their star. It's still working this season. If Irving is out, I want to bet Cleve.
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Oakland
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(Quote) No credit at all for calling the pass. If it works, they say great call; if it doesn't, they say terrible call. And I agree, the punt on 4th and inches was awful.
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temporary problem, all is well. TY Goats.
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suggestion: sticky his MLB thread, even though there are only a few weeks left to the playoffs.
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Can I find these online, or do I have to watch ESPN?
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I agree. SD is just so hated that as a contrarian, I must bet them. Though I think the best price may still be 30 min away.
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I don't think it's about matchups nearly as much as it is simply that Indiana is outclassed.
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I'm wrapping up this idea 2 days early with today's game. Final tally is 29-10, +13.62 units. Last week the lines were routinely -200, this week they are around -300. Sentiment (which I often find important) has been against Houston on every game…
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I'm still on the train. Now 21-8, +8,69. The lines are getting rather high-- I had to lay -200 or more throughout the NYY series and the Boston series. I'm going to continue through 5/15. Their first interleague series starting 5/17 seems like …
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(Quote) I find this VERY disturbing. Like other posters here, I believe this helps confirm that the good results were largely good luck on a small sample.
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(Quote) Through those 14 games (before today's afternoon start, in progress): 10-4, +3.51 units It looks like you overestimated the prices. 9-5 would have been plus about 1 unit, depending on which other game they won. Anyway, I'm obviously h…
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I was reluctant to jinx the streak. But now that Houston won its 2nd game I will update. YTD: 6-2 +3.02. I'm still on it.
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Fold. He has AA or KK. Just maybe JJ, or TT but probably not. Al those hands with a T (or a 7) that mikie includes are gone preflop. Since you promised no bad beat story, this is gonna prove wrong, but that's my play anyway.
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(Quote) Not quite. It means only the road pitcher can lose an 8 inn no-hitter, which is pretty rare indeed.
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OT, I'm curious, what is the average No-hitters per season?
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Yes, horns, I will be betting chalk. Houston sucked in the NL. But I think they will be very seriously outclassed in the AL.
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Thanks ebe. I'll add this: I remember the totals moved pretty fast last year so if you're gonna bet them, bet them early.
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Can you remind us of the bracketbuster basic strategy? I think it was something like : most of the overs--all lined below a high threshold, and all the usually unlined teams, and some other sides formula I have completely forgotten.