Stoffo Discussion Thread
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All opinions, comments, suggestions are welcomed.
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I also failed to mention since there's so much inter-league they are not used.
Bucky I misplace that thread with the exceptions also, coming off the DL list Etc: would mind please I'll make I cut/paste and copy.
Thanks
What I meant to say is since there's so much inter-league play thought out the year there will be less plays this year.
It's getting late till tomorrow.
"OT--looking at some of my old Stoffo notes, I found this info regarding the 1st 5 innings:
I find it interesting that playing the Stoffo unders for the first 5 innings would be disastrous compared to the full-game unders. I say that because the Stoffo unders are predicated on good starting pitching, and it seems somewhat logical to me that one of the concerns would be the bullpens giving up late inning runs when those "good" starters may have been removed from the game. Anyway, based upon lines from Pinny at the time of post, playing the Stoffo unders for the 1st 5 innings would be YTD: 63-57-5, -.69 units. As compared to the fullgame unders wich are: 77-45-3, +29.24 units.
OT--this was posted at Sports Forum World (the old SFW) on 8/15/10. I realize that this was a small sample based on results only from April to Aug 15th, 2010"
OT--for such an old fella your memory is quite good--(I, on the other hand, have a good memory--it's just short). The Stoffo unders were:
2007--103-75-7
2008--77-69-4
2009--94-68-8
2010--99-55-3
2011--97-71-6
2012--74-74-11
Stoffo sides over the past years have been:
2007--180-225, -4.8 units
2008--183-185, +30.51 units
2009--195-236, -3.5 units
2010--188-240, -14.20 units
2010--189-204, +25.8 units
2012--170-213, -21.5 units
These numbers were calculated using Pinny lines at time of post, so some judicious line shopping would obviously generate in better results. (I know playing against my locals' lines ended up with much better results)
Edit for the totals
Pitcher Specifics:
1) Both starting pitchers must have made at least 3 starts. This is why the true system does not start until about the 15th game (or during the 3rd week) of the season.
2) If a pitcher is coming off the DL, back from the minors, or off a trip to the bullpen, he must make at least 1 restart to requalify
3) As long as a pitcher meets the 3 start, and other requirements, they qualify regardless of the number of innings pitched. these pitchers can be in either the "A", "B", or "C" list on the Sagarin daily ratings
PS OT- I have always used the A-B and C Sagarin groups, and the results I posted earlier, were based upon those criteria. Also, after the All-Star break, the system goes on hiatus with the rest of MLB and pitchers must make 1 start before the system starts up again
My opinion, is you are flipping coins with this.
I agree with that.
I also agree that the sides are basically coin flipping. Personally, I've had some success with the sides, early in the year (up until Memorial day) and late in the year (after August 1st). Also, betting the Stoffo home dogs (I'm looking for some data on those plays) In June and July I have had success selectively fading the Stoffo sides. I don't play the sides blindly, just when they match up with other factors that I use. As far as the unders, they are 544-412 over the last 6 years, 56.9%, and 270-200 for the last 3 years, 57.4%. If that's considered coin flipping, then I'm going to flip away.
What no one seems to remember about this is that it was designed as a way to have some action over the summer while spending minimal time handicapping and yet still have a chance to make some, or at least not lose a lot, of money. I'd say that if you look at the results Bucky posted it has accomplished that goal, albeit with a few peaks & valleys. So you are right worm, it is flipping coins which is probably still better than 90% of baseball bettors could do on their own (present thread posters excepted of course)
Well said
I find this VERY disturbing. Like other posters here, I believe this helps confirm that the good results were largely good luck on a small sample.
Say you leaned under in a particular game & noticed it fits Stoffo, then maybe that would be enough for you to make a move. I'd certainly make sure YOUR handicapping points under before doing anything else.
The market has adjusted. You don't get the same value that you used to, it showed last year in the lines. What used to be under 6' was under 6 -120, what was once under 7 +100 was under 6' -115. We even saw 5', as BB said, and we wouldn't have seen as many prior to Stoffo. You can't just keep playing under a number regardless of what it is, even after the market catches up, and expect to come out ahead. It's too widely known at this point and it's baked in.
Everybody looking for the Promised Land OT.
You taking as it's an automatic play which it isn't and even if people did play it blindly the Under has shown a profit. I'm sure you have but read it but post 18 is spot on. let me add it's just another thing to look and track to see if there's any value in it.
You asked me to elaborate on my opinion. I think it's coin flipping and explained why. I don't think things that coin flip are useful or helpful in my handicapping in any way. If I lean towards an under in a given game, I'm not going to look towards a system that I think is 50/50 to guide me further. So I certainly wouldn't auto play them, and I wouldn't even use them as a method.
I have been wrong more times than I can count, but I'd be shocked if this showed a profit this year. There are a lot of things that worked 2-4 years ago that will bury you today.
Post #18 is indeed spot on. That "kdog" fella is pretty sharp.
But you make these posts under the guise of wanting to help make people better at sports betting. Why don't you let the people decide for themselves. But it's an open forum and you have the right to say whatever you like within the guidelines of the forum But you come across like you know it all every time.
I'm sure your aware most people just gamble for action and unless they are asked are probably not even interested.
So without giving the store away how about a taste because I see your picks. If your just betting Pinny moves (Nothing wrong with that) that's not handicapping.
Now I give you the opportunity to help everyone on the forum.
Buddy, you asked for my opinion and I gave it. Don't get your panties in a bunch just because I didn't agree with you.
A lot of times they are the same thing, my friend.