"As for sides, it's very, very, very difficult to get any edge betting MLB favorites, unless you've found a book that has an odd line on a particular game. Getting a line that is much better than what Pinnacle is dealing is much more important than anything else there."
what does that mean? can you clarify that better for me because it is difficult getting an edge on faves or dogs but why would you say it is harder to get an edge on faves over dogs?
I'm at a restaurant waiting for food, so I'll type until my order gets here. There was a thread here: http://www.bettingtalk.com/forum/showthread.php/180929-Why-almost-no-one-wins-at-sports-betting
The sportsbooks know how to set lines on baseball sides. They've been doing it for a very long time, and in a statistically driven sport where the injury report is public information, they can't and don't make mistakes. If their model tells them that the true odds price on a game should be, for instance, -145/+145, they will put up -150/+140 on the game and then go to sleep knowing that it's improbable anyone can make a bet that's an overlay.
Since the betting public typically overbets chalk, they might shade it to make it so that they are taking slightly the worst of it.
lets take wash az today
-193 +177
juice 65.88 36.1
straight 64.6 35.4
show me where the juice is more on the fave or explain to me what is real? because to me they both look like 98%
so assuming say nickel juice, you are saying they put more of the juice on the fave?
Everyone bets favorites because stats almost invariably suggest that the favorite is going to win. This link is perfectly exemplary of how squares think. What do all the consensus picks have in common? https://contests.covers.com/Consensus
I agree that squares love favorites BUT that does not mean the value in lines is only in dogs. Who in their right mind would bet the Tigers at +197 no one and they dont so how does it work, it works because if too many squares get in on the fave, the house freaks and moves the line so much that sharps see the room and make up the gap for the house so they still make money. The thing is the fave or dog is not a value play in anyway on that only. there is value on both sides of the lines, do you have any stats to show that the fave has more value for sharps than dogs? I think 100 years ago you know when you guys started, JK, the dogs were a huge value cause there was not 10 million people running a pinny model seeing the value on a high dog but that is just not true today. MY + CLV is nearly identical for faves or dogs. I dont see any trend in my bets that shows the fave or dog has more value, do you have results that prove something different?
Athletics aren't hitting and German is going to be tough to hit the first time teams see him. Looked great in his opener and seems like he'll be a nice MLB pitcher. Yankees aren't hitting particularly well and Triggs is solid. He does tend to lose it every few starts but for the most part is reliable and has pitched well enough under the bright lights of Yankee Stadium before. Athletics' pen is an issue but if Triggs can go 6 innings I think this one comes in. Ultimately NYY will have to do most of the scoring by themselves and I can't see them getting to 10 really. Yankees win 6-2.
Red Sox -121
Putting a lot of faith in David Price here but if he's back to normal we're getting 40-50 cents of discount off the price. He had the carpal tunnel lately and has had rough starts because of it but he has received treatment and is apparently back to normal. Not easy to trust but sounds like he's fine. Guy was apparently playing too much Fortnite and gave it up. Anyway, strong pen behind him and the Blue Jays are not hitting lefties this year. Price should do nicely. Estrada for the Jays is coming off a good start but he's still been killed by Boston in his last 2 starts (1 earlier this year) and just doesn't seem like he's capable of getting outs against this lineup. Boston is still hitting really well and should knock Estrada out early. Boston wins 6-2.
Royals +193
Royals/Indians u9 -115
Clevinger is good and should do well against this Royals' lineup but neither line makes a ton of sense to me. The Indians aren't doing much hitting and Junis is a young stud that pitched really well against this team earlier this season. Kansas City's bullpen is obviously an issue and Cleveland's pen is not as strong ever since Andrew Miller went down, but ultimately these starters are capable of going deep into the game. Junis should give us a chance here. He has some HR issues but the wind is blowing in at 13 MPH and that should help things out a bit.
Lean Phillies and u8 but Eflin is due to get rocked. Pitching way over his head but on the flip side the Mets aren't hitting anyone (Bruce/Frazier out) so he might be able to get another good start in. Going to pass but wouldn't surprise me if he pitches well again. He'll be a good fade eventually.
Pirates -115
Samardzija just isn't looking like he's ready for the regular season after the injury stuff took away his spring. Velocity is apparently normal but command is not there. The Pirates' offense is capable of scoring runs here and the Giants have a below average pen behind him. Kuhl has potential but is pretty hit or miss. I think this will be a good game for him. The Giants' offense has reverted back to not hitting and when they were on that "hot" stretch they were mostly doing it against poor pitchers. Kuhl has talent and has pitched well at home. Pirates have a solid bullpen. -115 seems wayyyyyy short.
Lean u8.5 in Rangers/Astros but passing. Fister seems like he could get rocked but did pitch well vs. Houston earlier this year.
Braves/Marlins u8.5 -120
Garcia finally had a bad start but I think he does okay here. The Braves hurt lefties but they are on a bit of an offensive lull and it's tough to hit in this park. Soroka should rebound from his bad start and put in some dominant innings against this light-hitting Marlins team. Both bullpens are a cause for concern but with neither offense in good form I think the under has value here. Someone wins 4-3.
Brewers/Rockies u11.5 -120
Chase Anderson has done well in his last few starts at Coors and the Rockies don't seem to be hitting. I figured the offense would trend up once they finally got healthy but they are going in the opposite direction. Coors hasn't played like Coors the last 3 games and the wind blowing in has played a part in that. Wind should be coming in at about 13 MPH for this one and that should help Anderson keep the ball in the park. Freeland isn't the best lefty in the world but he's coming off 3 straight excellent starts and seems to be in a good spot. Milwaukee isn't hitting and hasn't touched lefties all season. Both bullpens are good. 11.5 is too high, even in Coors.
Padres +110
Home team, better starter, better pen. Neither team is hitting. Padres should be favored.
Reds/Dodgers o8.5 -110
Thought about taking the Reds here too but passed. Not a bad play though. My theory on Homer Bailey being back to the form he showed 4 or 5 years ago appears to be bunk as he's pitching horribly right now. Even if he was back to form he's still a pretty average pitcher and LAD has the potential to hut him early and often. Stripling isn't anything special for the Dodgers. Both teams have some nice power and neither bullpen can be trusted. 8.5 seems cheap.
I don't know if you want my constructive criticism, but you remind me almost exactly of how I handicapped ten years ago, and you seem like a good guy, so here it is.
If you're handicapping off a general feel of which teams seem overrated/underrated by the market, you need to very carefully analyze your own write-ups as an objective third party. The big question is whether your analysis is definitely not something the books took into account while setting the line on the game. Sometimes you do find an angle, and sometimes you don't.
Also, research the concept of Confirmation Bias, and try and see how that might effect your thought processes and handicapping.
As for sides, it's very, very, very difficult to get any edge betting MLB favorites, unless you've found a book that has an odd line on a particular game. Getting a line that is much better than what Pinnacle is dealing is much more important than anything else there.
You're not going to get rich betting baseball. But if you have realistic expectations and constantly look for ways to improve and refine your methodology, you will have respectable results, and more importantly enjoy the process of betting and watching baseball (I get the feeling you have no problem with this last part).
I really hope you win. You're one of the good guys.
Missed this earlier, good stuff. Also I am trying more and more to avoid most favs. Generally I don't play that many (mostly totals and dogs most years). Trying to be more selective. Not sure why I'm liking so many lately. Good luck to you as well.
Just guesses but Rockies not hitting and Bettis pitching way above his skill level. Probably due for a bad one pretty soon. Wind is blasting in which doesn't happen much at Coors. Just kind of a weird game in general.
Fulmer is a better pitcher than Felix at this stage. Felix is probably a below average pitcher any more. Just not the same pitcher. Detroit hitting well enough. Seattle has a small bullpen edge but nothing major. Home team with the better starter at only +108 works for me.
Still confident but lots of garbage plays lately. Onward and upward.
Jake, check the overall record I have you going 1-2 on Thursday and you were 102-108 going into Thursday which makes you 103-110 not 119, the units are correct.
Jake, check the overall record I have you going 1-2 on Thursday and you were 102-108 going into Thursday which makes you 103-110 not 119, the units are correct.
Noticed it just now. Thanks for the heads up. Just incapable of simple math first thing in the morning I guess.
Archer is finally pitching well after struggling earlier this year following the injury but this is still a tough start for him. He usually gets hit really hard in this park and the Orioles' offense is starting to hit and more importantly hit for big power. Even Archer at 100% shouldn't be expected to do well here. Taking a shot on the Orioles here as well. Not really sure what to expect from Hess... he's been a pretty middling pitcher in the Minors up until this year where it appears he's taken a step forward and turned into a good pitcher. It doesn't take much to get outs against the Rays I suppose. Worst case scenario is he gets lit up and I potentially split but I just can't imagine Archer pitching well in this one so will take a shot on both. Let's call for a 6-4 Orioles win.
Orioles -117 Game 2
Thinking the Orioles are undervalued today. Cobb was one of those guys, like Archer, that started later in the year and needed the first few weeks to get right. He's looked back to normal his last 2 starts and back to normal for Cobb is an above average starter. Doesn't seem like the Rays can hit this guy is he's back to normal. Then Andriese for the Rays is sturdy but below average. Rays doing one of their bullpen games. Orioles hitting well. Just seems like a big pitching mismatch and then you have the Baltimore bats being hot and I just can't see this game being anywhere near -117. Actually leaned under in game 2 as the total is set pretty high at 9.5 but laying off.
This one barely got in yesterday and I'll try it once more. Both teams are hitting. Kyle Gibson is pitching well for the Twins but he's also extremely unreliable. Twins have one of the worst pens in baseball following him. Tropeano is pitching well for the Angels but has faced one of the easiest schedules in baseball. His stats are inflated and he's fresh off a DL stint due to arm inflammation. At 100% he's an average starter but I'm not sure he's 100%. Even if he is he doesn't go long in games and doesn't have a good bullpen behind him. Neither of these starters are particularly worth trusting, both offenses are hitting, neither starter goes deep into games, and both bullpens are capable of giving up runs. 8.5 is short.
Lean Athletics +255 but don't have the stones to try it. Lean u8.5 as well but passing. Severino should do nicely against the A's. Brett Anderson is an above average pitcher when healthy and I think he's healthy for the first time in about 3 years. He's also pitched well at Yankee Stadium as early as last season (when he wasn't in good form). The pressure won't get to him, but I am worried the Yankees are starting to rake again. NYY is a tough team to pitch to for lefties. Yankees probably win 5-3 or so. Ultimately got scared off both bets because Anderson doesn't go deep in games and the A's bullpen isn't worth trusting.
Rays -103
I honestly have no clue what's up with Dylan Bundy but at this price I'm willing to roll the dice. 3 straight nightmare starts for the talented youngster. Velocity is normal but his command has just been a mess. He's nursing a minor groin injury that you'd have to figure is contributing, although both Bundy and the skipper say that's not having anything to do with it. The Baltimore catcher alluded to some behind-the-scenes stuff with Bundy but hasn't specified what it might be. Something is wrong with him though. He's fully capable of turning things around against this light-hitting Rays squad but even then he didn't pitch particular well against TB last season. Snell is looking like an ace for TB and there is a bit of worry he's pitching over his head but he also was strong in 2 starts against Baltimore last year and the Orioles aren't as tough against lefties lately. That being said Snell has dominated some of the best lefty-hitting teams in baseball and I'm thinking he's turning into a legit ace. Pens are about even. If Bundy is healthy this line makes some sense, but with the way he's been pitching I have to try it.
Tigers +167
Paxton is pitching really well lately but he's also facing one of the top lefty-hitting teams in baseball. The Tigers have hit him pretty hard in 2 of 3 games over the past 2 seasons and their offense is in a good spot right now. Paxton won't get rocked but should give up a few runs. Projecting Blaine Hardy is darn near impossible. His MLB stats as a reliever over the past few years show a super high WHIP but also an ability to get through innings without giving up many runs. He will be making his MLB debut at 31 years old and has been absolutely dominant when starting in AAA over the years. Seattle has hit lefties pretty well on the year but has also struggled with the better ones. Seattle has a ton of power against lefties but Hardy's HR rates are as good as Paxton's and better than a guy like Corey Kluber's. He doesn't give up many long balls. I really don't know what to expect here but with Detroit capable of scoring a few and Hardy potentially being good I have to try the home team at +167. Detroit's pen is a worry since I doubt Hardy is fully stretched out after being a reliever for years but the Tigers' relievers have been surprisingly average this year. Have to try it. Paxton is also a guy that has random bad starts out of nowhere so that could help us out here too.
Urena is a pretty average pitcher but the Braves aren't hitting right now and this is a good park for pitcher's to do well in. Miami's offense is obviously pretty stinky but Newcomb is probably due for a bad start. Talented guy but often loses his command. All it will take is a couple runs to give us a chance here. Miami should be a small favorite at home IMO. Pens are about even, form of the offenses is about even, Newcomb has more ace potential but he also has the command issues that will cause him to have bad starts along the way. Solid doggy.
Royals +238 looks decent. KC hitting decently lately, should be able to get a few runs off Kluber. Duffy has had a rough schedule lately but is an above average pitcher when healthy and Cleveland nothing special this year vs. lefties. Indians' offense not in particularly good form. Ultimately passed because this is the worst pen in baseball and I've had enough of bullpens blowing games lately. Don't need the aggravation.
Jose Berrios said he had a positive bullpen session today and believes PC Garvin Alston fixed the problem with his curveball. It was a matter of increasing his arm speed with the pitch to make it the same as his fastball. When his lower half speeds up, his arm tends to drag.
Last time I bet them the Phillies blew the save chance but I'm ready to be hurt again. The Phillies have a better pen than the Mets so I'm not too worried about a repeat. Nola and deGrom are both studs but the difference is that the Phillies are hitting and the Mets aren't. NYM will be without Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier which takes away quite a bit of pop. deGrom should be fine but FWIW he's coming off a short DL stint after hurting himself swinging a bat. Club says he's at full health though. I just think he'll get close to nothing in run support. Phillies win 3-1.
Pirates -1.5 +150
Giants/Pirates o8.5 -120
The best lefty-hitting team in baseball against a trash can lefty who can't go deep and doesn't have a good pen behind him? Yes please. Holland can't get outs and his pen is below average. Nova isn't anything special and is coming off some bad starts but the Giants' offense is below average. Guessing Nova goes 6 innings, gives up 3 runs or so. The Pirates' pen has been elite the last month or so. Pirates win 8-3. My 2 favorite plays of the day thus far.
Lean o7.5 in Twins/Angels but passing. Romero is a stud prospect but he's also been rushed to the Majors and might not be ready. Angels hitting really well and Twins' bullpen is stinky. Ohtani seems like a pretty darn good pitcher but the Twins' offense is hitting. Angels' bullpen has been hittable this year. Might add this later. Still debating. Neither pitcher seems like they'll go past 6 innings so should be plenty of time for these pens to give up runs. Will circle back around on this one later.
Reds +140
Reds/Dodgers o8.5 +105
Rich Hill is 38 years old, was awful in spring training and then was awful in 2 of 3 regular season starts before an injury. He then was awful in his return from the DL. The only team he's pitched well against was the Giants who were in a huge slump and don't hit lefties well, and even then Hill got rocked by them in his next start. I was thinking before the season that Hill is probably due for a huge regression and it certainly seems like that's the case. The Reds are a good team vs. lefties and are hitting pretty well now that they have their whole lineup back together. I just don't trust Hill to put in quality innings. Castillo is a young potential-ace who was rushed to the Majors too early. He has not been that good this year but the Reds worked with him to change his arm angle and his last 2 starts have been much better. The Dodgers aren't hitting a ton lately and Castillo should do well enough. He won't dominate but if he only gives up a few runs we should be in a good spot on both bets. Reds win 6-4.
Hate to say it but I lean to Padres +115. Richard is not good but the Cards aren't hitting a ton lately and don't hit lefties that well thus far. Wainwright for the Cards is coming off DL and hasn't been good in a few years but the Padres aren't hitting either. Seems closer to a pick but I don't want to mess with Richard really.
A ton of bets last 2 days. Not by design, just seeing a lot I like. Hopefully it works out for the best. Good luck to all.
Originally had written up Red Sox -1.5 +125 but changed my mind. Biagnini has never found success in the Majors, he's been a mess thru 2 starts this year, he's been a mess in AAA this year, and he got crushed in 2 starts vs. Boston last season. He just doesn't seem like he can make the leap from average AAA pitcher to the Majors and he just seems to be in a bad spot all over as far as pitching goes this year. This tough Boston offense should hurt him. Pomeranz pitched great against a tough lefty-hitting Yankees team last game and originally I wanted to assume he's back to being the excellent pitcher he's capable of being... but the more I read the more I felt like the over might be the play here. Pomeranz was great last game after struggling with his velocity for much of the season but he ripped off his fingernail early in the game. Said he thought he wouldn't be able to throw his curve but ended up toughing it out. The fingernail that came off is the one he uses to grip the curve. Pretty much Pomeranz is a good pitcher because of that curveball and I have worries about him being able to throw it effectively here. The fastball velocity is still down and without his best pitch he can't be trusted. Earlier this year Pomeranz tried to throw a change because he couldn't locate his curve and the results were really ugly. If Pomeranz is healthy he should do very well against this Jays lineup but I don't think he's going to be close to 100% the more I read about what happened. Over seemed like the safer bet, although Boston winning wouldn't surprise me at all as Biagnini just doesn't seem capable of pitching well here. Red Sox win 7-6 if Pomeranz struggles, 8-3 if he doesn't. Either way I feel pretty good here.
Comments
I'm at a restaurant waiting for food, so I'll type until my order gets here. There was a thread here:
http://www.bettingtalk.com/forum/showthread.php/180929-Why-almost-no-one-wins-at-sports-betting
The sportsbooks know how to set lines on baseball sides. They've been doing it for a very long time, and in a statistically driven sport where the injury report is public information, they can't and don't make mistakes. If their model tells them that the true odds price on a game should be, for instance, -145/+145, they will put up -150/+140 on the game and then go to sleep knowing that it's improbable anyone can make a bet that's an overlay.
Since the betting public typically overbets chalk, they might shade it to make it so that they are taking slightly the worst of it.
-193 +177
juice 65.88 36.1
straight 64.6 35.4
show me where the juice is more on the fave or explain to me what is real? because to me they both look like 98%
Everyone bets favorites because stats almost invariably suggest that the favorite is going to win. This link is perfectly exemplary of how squares think. What do all the consensus picks have in common?
https://contests.covers.com/Consensus
Still confident but lots of garbage plays lately. Onward and upward.
Athletics/Yankees u9.5 -105
Athletics aren't hitting and German is going to be tough to hit the first time teams see him. Looked great in his opener and seems like he'll be a nice MLB pitcher. Yankees aren't hitting particularly well and Triggs is solid. He does tend to lose it every few starts but for the most part is reliable and has pitched well enough under the bright lights of Yankee Stadium before. Athletics' pen is an issue but if Triggs can go 6 innings I think this one comes in. Ultimately NYY will have to do most of the scoring by themselves and I can't see them getting to 10 really. Yankees win 6-2.
Red Sox -121
Putting a lot of faith in David Price here but if he's back to normal we're getting 40-50 cents of discount off the price. He had the carpal tunnel lately and has had rough starts because of it but he has received treatment and is apparently back to normal. Not easy to trust but sounds like he's fine. Guy was apparently playing too much Fortnite and gave it up. Anyway, strong pen behind him and the Blue Jays are not hitting lefties this year. Price should do nicely. Estrada for the Jays is coming off a good start but he's still been killed by Boston in his last 2 starts (1 earlier this year) and just doesn't seem like he's capable of getting outs against this lineup. Boston is still hitting really well and should knock Estrada out early. Boston wins 6-2.
Royals +193
Royals/Indians u9 -115
Clevinger is good and should do well against this Royals' lineup but neither line makes a ton of sense to me. The Indians aren't doing much hitting and Junis is a young stud that pitched really well against this team earlier this season. Kansas City's bullpen is obviously an issue and Cleveland's pen is not as strong ever since Andrew Miller went down, but ultimately these starters are capable of going deep into the game. Junis should give us a chance here. He has some HR issues but the wind is blowing in at 13 MPH and that should help things out a bit.
Pirates -115
Samardzija just isn't looking like he's ready for the regular season after the injury stuff took away his spring. Velocity is apparently normal but command is not there. The Pirates' offense is capable of scoring runs here and the Giants have a below average pen behind him. Kuhl has potential but is pretty hit or miss. I think this will be a good game for him. The Giants' offense has reverted back to not hitting and when they were on that "hot" stretch they were mostly doing it against poor pitchers. Kuhl has talent and has pitched well at home. Pirates have a solid bullpen. -115 seems wayyyyyy short.
Lean u8.5 in Rangers/Astros but passing. Fister seems like he could get rocked but did pitch well vs. Houston earlier this year.
Braves/Marlins u8.5 -120
Garcia finally had a bad start but I think he does okay here. The Braves hurt lefties but they are on a bit of an offensive lull and it's tough to hit in this park. Soroka should rebound from his bad start and put in some dominant innings against this light-hitting Marlins team. Both bullpens are a cause for concern but with neither offense in good form I think the under has value here. Someone wins 4-3.
Brewers/Rockies u11.5 -120
Chase Anderson has done well in his last few starts at Coors and the Rockies don't seem to be hitting. I figured the offense would trend up once they finally got healthy but they are going in the opposite direction. Coors hasn't played like Coors the last 3 games and the wind blowing in has played a part in that. Wind should be coming in at about 13 MPH for this one and that should help Anderson keep the ball in the park. Freeland isn't the best lefty in the world but he's coming off 3 straight excellent starts and seems to be in a good spot. Milwaukee isn't hitting and hasn't touched lefties all season. Both bullpens are good. 11.5 is too high, even in Coors.
Padres +110
Home team, better starter, better pen. Neither team is hitting. Padres should be favored.
Reds/Dodgers o8.5 -110
Thought about taking the Reds here too but passed. Not a bad play though. My theory on Homer Bailey being back to the form he showed 4 or 5 years ago appears to be bunk as he's pitching horribly right now. Even if he was back to form he's still a pretty average pitcher and LAD has the potential to hut him early and often. Stripling isn't anything special for the Dodgers. Both teams have some nice power and neither bullpen can be trusted. 8.5 seems cheap.
Missed this earlier, good stuff. Also I am trying more and more to avoid most favs. Generally I don't play that many (mostly totals and dogs most years). Trying to be more selective. Not sure why I'm liking so many lately. Good luck to you as well.
Just guesses but Rockies not hitting and Bettis pitching way above his skill level. Probably due for a bad one pretty soon. Wind is blasting in which doesn't happen much at Coors. Just kind of a weird game in general.
Fulmer is a better pitcher than Felix at this stage. Felix is probably a below average pitcher any more. Just not the same pitcher. Detroit hitting well enough. Seattle has a small bullpen edge but nothing major. Home team with the better starter at only +108 works for me.
Nothing I've heard of. Only weird thing is that wind coming in pretty heavy but haven't heard anything beyond that.
Jake, check the overall record I have you going 1-2 on Thursday and you were 102-108 going into Thursday which makes you 103-110 not 119, the units are correct.
Would have been a nice night but the Phillies blew the save.
Noticed it just now. Thanks for the heads up. Just incapable of simple math first thing in the morning I guess.
Orioles +122 Game 1
Rays/Orioles o9 -115 Game 1
Archer is finally pitching well after struggling earlier this year following the injury but this is still a tough start for him. He usually gets hit really hard in this park and the Orioles' offense is starting to hit and more importantly hit for big power. Even Archer at 100% shouldn't be expected to do well here. Taking a shot on the Orioles here as well. Not really sure what to expect from Hess... he's been a pretty middling pitcher in the Minors up until this year where it appears he's taken a step forward and turned into a good pitcher. It doesn't take much to get outs against the Rays I suppose. Worst case scenario is he gets lit up and I potentially split but I just can't imagine Archer pitching well in this one so will take a shot on both. Let's call for a 6-4 Orioles win.
Orioles -117 Game 2
Thinking the Orioles are undervalued today. Cobb was one of those guys, like Archer, that started later in the year and needed the first few weeks to get right. He's looked back to normal his last 2 starts and back to normal for Cobb is an above average starter. Doesn't seem like the Rays can hit this guy is he's back to normal. Then Andriese for the Rays is sturdy but below average. Rays doing one of their bullpen games. Orioles hitting well. Just seems like a big pitching mismatch and then you have the Baltimore bats being hot and I just can't see this game being anywhere near -117. Actually leaned under in game 2 as the total is set pretty high at 9.5 but laying off.
Twins/Angels o8.5 +100
This one barely got in yesterday and I'll try it once more. Both teams are hitting. Kyle Gibson is pitching well for the Twins but he's also extremely unreliable. Twins have one of the worst pens in baseball following him. Tropeano is pitching well for the Angels but has faced one of the easiest schedules in baseball. His stats are inflated and he's fresh off a DL stint due to arm inflammation. At 100% he's an average starter but I'm not sure he's 100%. Even if he is he doesn't go long in games and doesn't have a good bullpen behind him. Neither of these starters are particularly worth trusting, both offenses are hitting, neither starter goes deep into games, and both bullpens are capable of giving up runs. 8.5 is short.
Lance Lynn's pitches thrown in the strike zone:
2013 - 51%
2014 - 50%
2015 - 48%
2016 - Tommy John surgery
2017 - 47%
2018 - 42%
His velocity, ground-ball rate, and swinging-strike rate are all improved compared to last season. He just won't throw the ball over the damn plate.
Lean Athletics +255 but don't have the stones to try it. Lean u8.5 as well but passing. Severino should do nicely against the A's. Brett Anderson is an above average pitcher when healthy and I think he's healthy for the first time in about 3 years. He's also pitched well at Yankee Stadium as early as last season (when he wasn't in good form). The pressure won't get to him, but I am worried the Yankees are starting to rake again. NYY is a tough team to pitch to for lefties. Yankees probably win 5-3 or so. Ultimately got scared off both bets because Anderson doesn't go deep in games and the A's bullpen isn't worth trusting.
Rays -103
I honestly have no clue what's up with Dylan Bundy but at this price I'm willing to roll the dice. 3 straight nightmare starts for the talented youngster. Velocity is normal but his command has just been a mess. He's nursing a minor groin injury that you'd have to figure is contributing, although both Bundy and the skipper say that's not having anything to do with it. The Baltimore catcher alluded to some behind-the-scenes stuff with Bundy but hasn't specified what it might be. Something is wrong with him though. He's fully capable of turning things around against this light-hitting Rays squad but even then he didn't pitch particular well against TB last season. Snell is looking like an ace for TB and there is a bit of worry he's pitching over his head but he also was strong in 2 starts against Baltimore last year and the Orioles aren't as tough against lefties lately. That being said Snell has dominated some of the best lefty-hitting teams in baseball and I'm thinking he's turning into a legit ace. Pens are about even. If Bundy is healthy this line makes some sense, but with the way he's been pitching I have to try it.
Tigers +167
Paxton is pitching really well lately but he's also facing one of the top lefty-hitting teams in baseball. The Tigers have hit him pretty hard in 2 of 3 games over the past 2 seasons and their offense is in a good spot right now. Paxton won't get rocked but should give up a few runs. Projecting Blaine Hardy is darn near impossible. His MLB stats as a reliever over the past few years show a super high WHIP but also an ability to get through innings without giving up many runs. He will be making his MLB debut at 31 years old and has been absolutely dominant when starting in AAA over the years. Seattle has hit lefties pretty well on the year but has also struggled with the better ones. Seattle has a ton of power against lefties but Hardy's HR rates are as good as Paxton's and better than a guy like Corey Kluber's. He doesn't give up many long balls. I really don't know what to expect here but with Detroit capable of scoring a few and Hardy potentially being good I have to try the home team at +167. Detroit's pen is a worry since I doubt Hardy is fully stretched out after being a reliever for years but the Tigers' relievers have been surprisingly average this year. Have to try it. Paxton is also a guy that has random bad starts out of nowhere so that could help us out here too.
Urena is a pretty average pitcher but the Braves aren't hitting right now and this is a good park for pitcher's to do well in. Miami's offense is obviously pretty stinky but Newcomb is probably due for a bad start. Talented guy but often loses his command. All it will take is a couple runs to give us a chance here. Miami should be a small favorite at home IMO. Pens are about even, form of the offenses is about even, Newcomb has more ace potential but he also has the command issues that will cause him to have bad starts along the way. Solid doggy.
Royals +238 looks decent. KC hitting decently lately, should be able to get a few runs off Kluber. Duffy has had a rough schedule lately but is an above average pitcher when healthy and Cleveland nothing special this year vs. lefties. Indians' offense not in particularly good form. Ultimately passed because this is the worst pen in baseball and I've had enough of bullpens blowing games lately. Don't need the aggravation.
Jose Berrios said he had a positive bullpen session today and believes PC Garvin Alston fixed the problem with his curveball. It was a matter of increasing his arm speed with the pitch to make it the same as his fastball. When his lower half speeds up, his arm tends to drag.
Mets/Phillies u7 +100
Last time I bet them the Phillies blew the save chance but I'm ready to be hurt again. The Phillies have a better pen than the Mets so I'm not too worried about a repeat. Nola and deGrom are both studs but the difference is that the Phillies are hitting and the Mets aren't. NYM will be without Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier which takes away quite a bit of pop. deGrom should be fine but FWIW he's coming off a short DL stint after hurting himself swinging a bat. Club says he's at full health though. I just think he'll get close to nothing in run support. Phillies win 3-1.
Pirates -1.5 +150
Giants/Pirates o8.5 -120
The best lefty-hitting team in baseball against a trash can lefty who can't go deep and doesn't have a good pen behind him? Yes please. Holland can't get outs and his pen is below average. Nova isn't anything special and is coming off some bad starts but the Giants' offense is below average. Guessing Nova goes 6 innings, gives up 3 runs or so. The Pirates' pen has been elite the last month or so. Pirates win 8-3. My 2 favorite plays of the day thus far.
Lean o7.5 in Twins/Angels but passing. Romero is a stud prospect but he's also been rushed to the Majors and might not be ready. Angels hitting really well and Twins' bullpen is stinky. Ohtani seems like a pretty darn good pitcher but the Twins' offense is hitting. Angels' bullpen has been hittable this year. Might add this later. Still debating. Neither pitcher seems like they'll go past 6 innings so should be plenty of time for these pens to give up runs. Will circle back around on this one later.
Reds +140
Reds/Dodgers o8.5 +105
Rich Hill is 38 years old, was awful in spring training and then was awful in 2 of 3 regular season starts before an injury. He then was awful in his return from the DL. The only team he's pitched well against was the Giants who were in a huge slump and don't hit lefties well, and even then Hill got rocked by them in his next start. I was thinking before the season that Hill is probably due for a huge regression and it certainly seems like that's the case. The Reds are a good team vs. lefties and are hitting pretty well now that they have their whole lineup back together. I just don't trust Hill to put in quality innings. Castillo is a young potential-ace who was rushed to the Majors too early. He has not been that good this year but the Reds worked with him to change his arm angle and his last 2 starts have been much better. The Dodgers aren't hitting a ton lately and Castillo should do well enough. He won't dominate but if he only gives up a few runs we should be in a good spot on both bets. Reds win 6-4.
Hate to say it but I lean to Padres +115. Richard is not good but the Cards aren't hitting a ton lately and don't hit lefties that well thus far. Wainwright for the Cards is coming off DL and hasn't been good in a few years but the Padres aren't hitting either. Seems closer to a pick but I don't want to mess with Richard really.
A ton of bets last 2 days. Not by design, just seeing a lot I like. Hopefully it works out for the best. Good luck to all.
Originally had written up Red Sox -1.5 +125 but changed my mind. Biagnini has never found success in the Majors, he's been a mess thru 2 starts this year, he's been a mess in AAA this year, and he got crushed in 2 starts vs. Boston last season. He just doesn't seem like he can make the leap from average AAA pitcher to the Majors and he just seems to be in a bad spot all over as far as pitching goes this year. This tough Boston offense should hurt him. Pomeranz pitched great against a tough lefty-hitting Yankees team last game and originally I wanted to assume he's back to being the excellent pitcher he's capable of being... but the more I read the more I felt like the over might be the play here. Pomeranz was great last game after struggling with his velocity for much of the season but he ripped off his fingernail early in the game. Said he thought he wouldn't be able to throw his curve but ended up toughing it out. The fingernail that came off is the one he uses to grip the curve. Pretty much Pomeranz is a good pitcher because of that curveball and I have worries about him being able to throw it effectively here. The fastball velocity is still down and without his best pitch he can't be trusted. Earlier this year Pomeranz tried to throw a change because he couldn't locate his curve and the results were really ugly. If Pomeranz is healthy he should do very well against this Jays lineup but I don't think he's going to be close to 100% the more I read about what happened. Over seemed like the safer bet, although Boston winning wouldn't surprise me at all as Biagnini just doesn't seem capable of pitching well here. Red Sox win 7-6 if Pomeranz struggles, 8-3 if he doesn't. Either way I feel pretty good here.