Jake, your cheating the record 4-4 yesterday 89-90 going into yesterday overall 93-94 the units are correct. Thank You for sharing lets win the 2 unit today.
Definitely got on the right side of the steam at least. Good luck today!
No odds up yet on tomorrow's game but I'll probably be taking the Marlins/Cubs under. Trying to convince myself to move off a capped line of 6.5 and just can't do it.
Hill got scratched, Stripling starts in his place. Originally had o8.5 -120 as my bet so I'm giving up half a run but there is still value. Stripling is probably more hittable than Hill and carries the same HR issues. Dodgers still expected to rock Lauer. Line is still a bit too low.
Texas isn't an easy place to pitch but Fulmer is a stud and even if he gives up a few runs I still think Detroit can get the W. The starting pitching matchup is just a mismatch. Moore can't be trusted to get outs and Detroit just kills lefties. Not having Miggy isn't as important as it used to be. Detroit's pen could blow this but they are better than last year and I'm not convinced Texas' pen is much better, if at all. Thinking Tigers have a couple run lead after 5 innings and have to play it at only -115. Beltre being out for Texas helps out also.
Heavy lean to Marlins +190. Hendricks should dominate the Marlins but Garcia has a chance to do the same against the Cubs. Neither team is hitting much. Cubs haven't hit lefties well all year. Garcia definitely overdue for some regression but he's throwing quality innings every start. Nice pen advantage for the Cubs but nothing that amounts quite to this line. Ultimately more focused on the under and don't want to double dip on Garcia potentially coming back to Earth so will wait for that.
Homer Bailey is having issues with the long ball lately but his WHIP is solid and I think he's a decent enough pitcher. The Mets aren't hitting anyone right now and their power numbers are so poor that I don't think they'll be able to take advantage of those recent Bailey HR tendencies. Cespedes also left the game early on Sunday so he's questionable at best for this one which just takes more pop out of the lineup. Conlon is making his MLB debut for the Mets and he's just not ready. He was serviceable in AA last year but nothing special and has been hit hard in AAA this season. Guy has nice control but only 1 good pitch (he throws 4 pitches but only 1 is halfway decent). He's just not ready and the Reds' offense is capable of hitting at home. Cincinnati hasn't been overly sharp against lefties lately but they are one of the better teams overall vs. southpaws this year and I just don't think Conlon will be able to trick them. Reds should be favored.
@Timothy Finnegan
Supposedly Syndergaard is working on his mechanics to try to keep his side closed to hide his fastball, maybe that is bothering his control today.
Lean A's +130 but passing for now. Houston hasn't hit lefties this year but it's only a matter of time until they do. Anderson seems back to pre-injury form or at least he seems like a decent MLB pitcher at this point. Houston's offense hasn't been hot yet. Oakland's offense is cooling off quite a bit as well and Keuchel is capable of dominant innings but also had some issues with the A's earlier in the year. Ultimately it's a lean but not playing it just yet. One big knock was that I'm not sure how deep into games Anderson can go and it's tough to trust the Oakland bullpen.
Giants/Phillies o8.5 -115
This one is easy. Eflin is not good. He cost me money in his first start against the light-hitting Marlins but I think he gets bounced early here. The Giants' offense is red hot and they are much better against lefties this year than last thanks to McCutchen coming over. SF is just killing anyone and Eflin has no business at this level. Not really sure where Samardzija is at... had the injury that cost him a bunch of time in spring, drew the Angels in his first start and looked nice but that was also right when the Angels stopped hitting. Got rocked in 2nd start against the Nats, then looked okay but far from 100% in a decent outing against the light-hitting Padres last time out. I don't think he's at 100% yet and even if he is he's probably a below average MLB starter at this point. Phillies not hitting particularly well but they should be able to do some damage here. Phillies have the better pen but neither group of relievers is any better than average IMO. One of these teams win 6-5 or something similar.
Waiting to cap MIN @ STL (not sure what Pham's status is and the Cards and they just lost Molina) and WAS @ SD (seeing what the word is on Zimmerman).
Tommy Pham said an MRI revealed mild irritation near his right hip abductor. He hopes to be back in the lineup tomorrow, but concedes missing a few days now could rid him of the issue all together. #STLCards
Nothing for me in this Cubs/Cards late game tonight. Wacha is pitching better than his talent indicates but Cubs aren't hitting. Wacha gets rocked by the Cubs on a regular basis and has been facing light-hitting teams so I think he's due for a bad one but just don't trust the Cubs' current offensive form enough to make a bet on Chicago. That was my only lean here. Total seemed right. Cards won't hit lefties as well without Pham and Molina. I could see Wacha getting ran early but could also see Wacha pitching a nice game if the Cubs' offense doesn't figure it out.
Molina out and probably Pham out for the Cardinals who weren't hitting well before those guys got hurt. Romero for the Twins has a ton of potential but he's also probably been rushed to the Majors a year early. That being said he's going to probably have success his first time through lineups and it's tough to see this depleted Cards lineup figuring him out. Gant for the Cards is decent but seems like he'll be a below average MLB pitcher at this stage. Twins should be able to hit him. Gant has always had a high WHIP in the minors and Minnesota's lineup has the patience to draw walks. Cards have the better bullpen but Twins have the edge in starter and offense so will have to try them as dogs and hope the pen doesn't blow it.
Was waiting to see if Zimmerman would play for the Nats. He's probable, and somehow I've still lost value on the Padres even though the Nats are stronger than before. Guess maybe I shouldn't have waited to cap. Anyway.... Ross is an excellent pitcher when healthy and he's back at Petco where he pitches really well. Strasburg's obviously a stud but hasn't been as sharp as he can be lately. Nats have the better offense but they aren't tearing the cover off the ball or anything. Padres probably have a pen advantage. This game should be a low-scoring matchup and I only had the Nats' as smaller favorites. Let's hope the home team can find some offense.
I just want to say thanks to Jake man the guy works hard at this, he sends twitter quotes and injury updates all day. I cant speak for everyone but from me your input is valued, thank you!
Nola's an ace but the Giants are hitting really well. They haven't shown they can hit against good pitchers yet but they are murdering bad ones. I figure that's enough to get 2 or 3 runs off Nola should should be enough for the over. I've faded stinky Holland a few times this year and will do so again. He's simply not a good pitcher and he's also pitched every single game this season in parks that are nice to pitcher's so he still has plenty of room to get even worse now that he's has to pitch in a moderate hitter's park in Philly. The Phillies aren't anything special with their bats right now but have done well against lefties and honestly it just doesn't take much to get runs against Holland these days. Phillies win 7-3.
Small lean to o9.5 in Mets/Reds but going to pass. Might kick myself for doing so but the Mets aren't hitting anyone and Cincinnati's recent form against lefties hasn't been impressive. You have 2 very hittable pitchers here and 2 bad bullpens though... Ultimately it probably goes over but decided to pass because one of these days both starters are going to start pitching decently. Vargas is a good enough pitcher when healthy but had a really late start to the year and will get it figured out before long. Castillo was nice in the minors and nice last year but is struggling this year. Apparently the coaching staff has figured out it's his arm angle that is messed up and he's been working on it. His last start wasn't good but it was his best of the year. This likely goes over but both pitchers have some upside and with neither offense hitting I can't commit.
Rays -123
2 lefties on the mound and these are the 2 best lefty-hitting teams in baseball this year. Atlanta's offense seems to be cooling down and they haven't been able to do much against 2 hittable lefties in their last few games. Snell looks like a legit ace and I don't see runs coming easy for Atlanta, although they do have the potential to score a few. Newcomb is pretty good but he's faced a pretty easy schedule and has control issues. His stats are propped up a bit and his WHIP will always have him in trouble despite the fact that he usually gets key outs. Tampa's offense lacks pop but they have been doing a decent job of drawing walks lately which could put Newcomb into some trouble. Tampa has the better starter and the better bullpen. Braves get the nod in terms of offensive potential but Tampa is hitting well enough for me to try them as a small fav at home.
Indians -1.5 -140
Thought about playing the under here and it was set pretty high but had to pass. Kluber is a stud, Milwaukee hitting decently but don't think they have a chance against a pitcher this good. The big concern is Cleveland's bullpen which has gone from a top unit to one of the worst in baseball ever since Andrew Miller went down. Miller won't be back until Friday but I think Kluber is capable of going deep enough into this game where the Cleveland bullpen will have a minimal say in the outcome. Wade Miley for the Brewers hasn't been good in years. I faded him in his opener and he pitched well enough but Cleveland was an elite team vs. lefties last year and the offense is performing well enough. I just don't believe that Miley can get outs. The Indians hit him pretty hard in both starts last year and he just doesn't seem likely to last long here. The Brewers have a nice bullpen but with the offense not doing much against Kluber I doubt it will matter. Indians lead 6-2 after 8 innings and we'll hope for the best.
Leaning Marlins +212 but as I'm typing this up the Cubs just put Darvish on DL so that's a scratch for now until the Cubs name a new pitcher. The reason for the lean is I have no idea what's up with Darvish but he's capable of dominating this lineup if healthy. Cubs not hitting so I figure Urena will put in decent enough innings. Will circle back around later.
Lean White Sox +130. Almost seems like the more guys the White Sox lose the more they hit. Offense is decent lately since losing Avisail and then Moncada. Nova isn't anything special. Giolito for the White Sox is talented but also probably needs more seasoning in the minors. He's got his control issues together his last 2 starts though and is facing a Pirates' offense that isn't hitting particularly well. Bullpens about even. Ultimately decided to pass because I just don't trust Giolito. You never know how he'll perform. Too much risky on a stinky team that finds ways to lose.
Astros/Athletics u8 -115
Manaea is a stud lefty and Houston isn't hitting anyone. They were strong against lefties last year but aren't impressing thus far. Their offense just isn't in sync and Manaea already proved once this year he can toss dominant innings against them. McCullers is a good pitcher and Oakland isn't hitting much. Houston has the big pen advantage but both starters will go deep enough where bullpens won't figure in that heavy IMO. McCullers also dominated the A's recently. Seems like a tossup game where neither offense has a lot of success. Some team wins 3-2. Negative here is the wind is blowing out at 14 MPH but neither pitcher gives up many long balls. Really should be playing Oakland +120 as well but just felt more confident with the total. Might play it at a later time.
DBacks +117
Also lean slightly to o7.5 -107 here. Going to pass for now. Godley is an above average pitcher and facing a Dodgers' lineup that isn't hitting well. Godley has dominated them in 2 of 3 starts vs. LAD this season. Hill was already trending toward becoming a hittable pitcher but then had the broken fingernail. Now he's back and we'll see how rusty the 38-year old is. Arizona isn't hitting lately but they've also been facing some studly pitchers so I'm thinking their offense is still good enough to score a few off Hill. Hill has been hit hard in 3 of his last 4 starts against Arizona including one this year. The DBacks have a good pen while the Dodgers' pen is struggling. You don't want a struggling pen when your starter generally only goes 4 or 5 innings. DBacks win 5-3.
Lean Nats/Padres o8 +100. Hellickson pitching decently but hittable, Padres nothing special on offense though. Richard below average and very hittable but Nats aren't getting many hits lately. Drawing walks well but Richard is really good at putting a million guys on base and escaping somehow. Just seems maybe half a run too low but I don't know if I want to deal with a Richard start where he goes 6 innings with 6 hits and 5 walks and 2 runs allowed.
Waiting to cap the following games: MIN @ STL (Pham status), BOS @ NYY (Mookie status), KC @ BAL (Adam Jones status), SEA @ TOR (Segura status), DET @ TEX (Beltre status, might return from DL), and LAA @ COL (LeMahieu status, might return from DL).
Lean Cardinals here as well. Carlos Martinez is a stud, Twins are hitting well but they are also facing very few decent pitchers lately which makes me think they aren't as good as they seem. This is an under park with a great starter and the Twins just haven't hit in these spots this year. Minnesota's lineup is also without Sano and Buxton which should show more against a guy like Martinez. Odorizzi isn't anything special but he's a solid pitcher that can get outs. His stats don't fly off the page but he also has yet to pitch in a pitcher's park the entire season so he should benefit from that. The Cardinals' offense is without Pham and Molina so they aren't at full strength and looked to be going into a bit of an offensive lull before those injuries. The main worry here is Minnesota's bullpen but I think both starters do well and I like getting +110.
I guess last night Samardzija was back to normal velocity but just had a bad day. Probably rust, but good to see he's at normal velocity at least.
Six days rest mighta helped the fast ball that doesn't have much movement. This guy is a major disappointment and shudda stuck to his best sport.......football.
Not sure if he'll miss action but Blue Jays closer Osuna just got arrested for assault against a woman. Not sure how MLB does suspensions on that stuff. Jays' pen has been pretty solid this year, if he's out it's an obvious downgrade.
Comments
Definitely got on the right side of the steam at least. Good luck today!
Dodgers/Padres o9 -120
Hill got scratched, Stripling starts in his place. Originally had o8.5 -120 as my bet so I'm giving up half a run but there is still value. Stripling is probably more hittable than Hill and carries the same HR issues. Dodgers still expected to rock Lauer. Line is still a bit too low.
Tigers -115
Texas isn't an easy place to pitch but Fulmer is a stud and even if he gives up a few runs I still think Detroit can get the W. The starting pitching matchup is just a mismatch. Moore can't be trusted to get outs and Detroit just kills lefties. Not having Miggy isn't as important as it used to be. Detroit's pen could blow this but they are better than last year and I'm not convinced Texas' pen is much better, if at all. Thinking Tigers have a couple run lead after 5 innings and have to play it at only -115. Beltre being out for Texas helps out also.
Heavy lean to Marlins +190. Hendricks should dominate the Marlins but Garcia has a chance to do the same against the Cubs. Neither team is hitting much. Cubs haven't hit lefties well all year. Garcia definitely overdue for some regression but he's throwing quality innings every start. Nice pen advantage for the Cubs but nothing that amounts quite to this line. Ultimately more focused on the under and don't want to double dip on Garcia potentially coming back to Earth so will wait for that.
More to come shortly.
Homer Bailey is having issues with the long ball lately but his WHIP is solid and I think he's a decent enough pitcher. The Mets aren't hitting anyone right now and their power numbers are so poor that I don't think they'll be able to take advantage of those recent Bailey HR tendencies. Cespedes also left the game early on Sunday so he's questionable at best for this one which just takes more pop out of the lineup. Conlon is making his MLB debut for the Mets and he's just not ready. He was serviceable in AA last year but nothing special and has been hit hard in AAA this season. Guy has nice control but only 1 good pitch (he throws 4 pitches but only 1 is halfway decent). He's just not ready and the Reds' offense is capable of hitting at home. Cincinnati hasn't been overly sharp against lefties lately but they are one of the better teams overall vs. southpaws this year and I just don't think Conlon will be able to trick them. Reds should be favored.
Supposedly Syndergaard is working on his mechanics to try to keep his side closed to hide his fastball, maybe that is bothering his control today.
Giants/Phillies o8.5 -115
This one is easy. Eflin is not good. He cost me money in his first start against the light-hitting Marlins but I think he gets bounced early here. The Giants' offense is red hot and they are much better against lefties this year than last thanks to McCutchen coming over. SF is just killing anyone and Eflin has no business at this level. Not really sure where Samardzija is at... had the injury that cost him a bunch of time in spring, drew the Angels in his first start and looked nice but that was also right when the Angels stopped hitting. Got rocked in 2nd start against the Nats, then looked okay but far from 100% in a decent outing against the light-hitting Padres last time out. I don't think he's at 100% yet and even if he is he's probably a below average MLB starter at this point. Phillies not hitting particularly well but they should be able to do some damage here. Phillies have the better pen but neither group of relievers is any better than average IMO. One of these teams win 6-5 or something similar.
Waiting to cap MIN @ STL (not sure what Pham's status is and the Cards and they just lost Molina) and WAS @ SD (seeing what the word is on Zimmerman).
46s
Tommy Pham said an MRI revealed mild irritation near his right hip abductor. He hopes to be back in the lineup tomorrow, but concedes missing a few days now could rid him of the issue all together. #STLCards
I read that as doubtful for tomorrow.
Molina out and probably Pham out for the Cardinals who weren't hitting well before those guys got hurt. Romero for the Twins has a ton of potential but he's also probably been rushed to the Majors a year early. That being said he's going to probably have success his first time through lineups and it's tough to see this depleted Cards lineup figuring him out. Gant for the Cards is decent but seems like he'll be a below average MLB pitcher at this stage. Twins should be able to hit him. Gant has always had a high WHIP in the minors and Minnesota's lineup has the patience to draw walks. Cards have the better bullpen but Twins have the edge in starter and offense so will have to try them as dogs and hope the pen doesn't blow it.
Was waiting to see if Zimmerman would play for the Nats. He's probable, and somehow I've still lost value on the Padres even though the Nats are stronger than before. Guess maybe I shouldn't have waited to cap. Anyway.... Ross is an excellent pitcher when healthy and he's back at Petco where he pitches really well. Strasburg's obviously a stud but hasn't been as sharp as he can be lately. Nats have the better offense but they aren't tearing the cover off the ball or anything. Padres probably have a pen advantage. This game should be a low-scoring matchup and I only had the Nats' as smaller favorites. Let's hope the home team can find some offense.
Mentioned reasoning earlier.
Phillies -1.5 +105
Giants/Phillies o8 -105
Nola's an ace but the Giants are hitting really well. They haven't shown they can hit against good pitchers yet but they are murdering bad ones. I figure that's enough to get 2 or 3 runs off Nola should should be enough for the over. I've faded stinky Holland a few times this year and will do so again. He's simply not a good pitcher and he's also pitched every single game this season in parks that are nice to pitcher's so he still has plenty of room to get even worse now that he's has to pitch in a moderate hitter's park in Philly. The Phillies aren't anything special with their bats right now but have done well against lefties and honestly it just doesn't take much to get runs against Holland these days. Phillies win 7-3.
Small lean to o9.5 in Mets/Reds but going to pass. Might kick myself for doing so but the Mets aren't hitting anyone and Cincinnati's recent form against lefties hasn't been impressive. You have 2 very hittable pitchers here and 2 bad bullpens though... Ultimately it probably goes over but decided to pass because one of these days both starters are going to start pitching decently. Vargas is a good enough pitcher when healthy but had a really late start to the year and will get it figured out before long. Castillo was nice in the minors and nice last year but is struggling this year. Apparently the coaching staff has figured out it's his arm angle that is messed up and he's been working on it. His last start wasn't good but it was his best of the year. This likely goes over but both pitchers have some upside and with neither offense hitting I can't commit.
Rays -123
2 lefties on the mound and these are the 2 best lefty-hitting teams in baseball this year. Atlanta's offense seems to be cooling down and they haven't been able to do much against 2 hittable lefties in their last few games. Snell looks like a legit ace and I don't see runs coming easy for Atlanta, although they do have the potential to score a few. Newcomb is pretty good but he's faced a pretty easy schedule and has control issues. His stats are propped up a bit and his WHIP will always have him in trouble despite the fact that he usually gets key outs. Tampa's offense lacks pop but they have been doing a decent job of drawing walks lately which could put Newcomb into some trouble. Tampa has the better starter and the better bullpen. Braves get the nod in terms of offensive potential but Tampa is hitting well enough for me to try them as a small fav at home.
Indians -1.5 -140
Thought about playing the under here and it was set pretty high but had to pass. Kluber is a stud, Milwaukee hitting decently but don't think they have a chance against a pitcher this good. The big concern is Cleveland's bullpen which has gone from a top unit to one of the worst in baseball ever since Andrew Miller went down. Miller won't be back until Friday but I think Kluber is capable of going deep enough into this game where the Cleveland bullpen will have a minimal say in the outcome. Wade Miley for the Brewers hasn't been good in years. I faded him in his opener and he pitched well enough but Cleveland was an elite team vs. lefties last year and the offense is performing well enough. I just don't believe that Miley can get outs. The Indians hit him pretty hard in both starts last year and he just doesn't seem likely to last long here. The Brewers have a nice bullpen but with the offense not doing much against Kluber I doubt it will matter. Indians lead 6-2 after 8 innings and we'll hope for the best.
Leaning Marlins +212 but as I'm typing this up the Cubs just put Darvish on DL so that's a scratch for now until the Cubs name a new pitcher. The reason for the lean is I have no idea what's up with Darvish but he's capable of dominating this lineup if healthy. Cubs not hitting so I figure Urena will put in decent enough innings. Will circle back around later.
Astros/Athletics u8 -115
Manaea is a stud lefty and Houston isn't hitting anyone. They were strong against lefties last year but aren't impressing thus far. Their offense just isn't in sync and Manaea already proved once this year he can toss dominant innings against them. McCullers is a good pitcher and Oakland isn't hitting much. Houston has the big pen advantage but both starters will go deep enough where bullpens won't figure in that heavy IMO. McCullers also dominated the A's recently. Seems like a tossup game where neither offense has a lot of success. Some team wins 3-2. Negative here is the wind is blowing out at 14 MPH but neither pitcher gives up many long balls. Really should be playing Oakland +120 as well but just felt more confident with the total. Might play it at a later time.
DBacks +117
Also lean slightly to o7.5 -107 here. Going to pass for now. Godley is an above average pitcher and facing a Dodgers' lineup that isn't hitting well. Godley has dominated them in 2 of 3 starts vs. LAD this season. Hill was already trending toward becoming a hittable pitcher but then had the broken fingernail. Now he's back and we'll see how rusty the 38-year old is. Arizona isn't hitting lately but they've also been facing some studly pitchers so I'm thinking their offense is still good enough to score a few off Hill. Hill has been hit hard in 3 of his last 4 starts against Arizona including one this year. The DBacks have a good pen while the Dodgers' pen is struggling. You don't want a struggling pen when your starter generally only goes 4 or 5 innings. DBacks win 5-3.
Lean Nats/Padres o8 +100. Hellickson pitching decently but hittable, Padres nothing special on offense though. Richard below average and very hittable but Nats aren't getting many hits lately. Drawing walks well but Richard is really good at putting a million guys on base and escaping somehow. Just seems maybe half a run too low but I don't know if I want to deal with a Richard start where he goes 6 innings with 6 hits and 5 walks and 2 runs allowed.
Waiting to cap the following games: MIN @ STL (Pham status), BOS @ NYY (Mookie status), KC @ BAL (Adam Jones status), SEA @ TOR (Segura status), DET @ TEX (Beltre status, might return from DL), and LAA @ COL (LeMahieu status, might return from DL).
Jake, your cheating the record 96-98 going into yesterday 2-4 day makes overall record 98-102, units are correct.
Arghhhhhh thanks. I have no idea why I can't add the wins and losses up.
Record: 98-102 -3.2
Lean Cardinals here as well. Carlos Martinez is a stud, Twins are hitting well but they are also facing very few decent pitchers lately which makes me think they aren't as good as they seem. This is an under park with a great starter and the Twins just haven't hit in these spots this year. Minnesota's lineup is also without Sano and Buxton which should show more against a guy like Martinez. Odorizzi isn't anything special but he's a solid pitcher that can get outs. His stats don't fly off the page but he also has yet to pitch in a pitcher's park the entire season so he should benefit from that. The Cardinals' offense is without Pham and Molina so they aren't at full strength and looked to be going into a bit of an offensive lull before those injuries. The main worry here is Minnesota's bullpen but I think both starters do well and I like getting +110.
Six days rest mighta helped the fast ball that doesn't have much movement. This guy is a major disappointment and shudda stuck to his best sport.......football.