Ughhhhh why am I betting this? Even I don't feel good about it but I didn't have Cleveland anywhere near as large of a favorite. Kluber is a stud obviously but he's capable of giving up HRs here and there. Texas hits HRs well. Thinking we have a shot if they can clock a HR or 2. Then Matt Moore... not a very good pitcher. That being said, Cleveland couldn't hit him last year when he was equally bad. Cleveland just isn't hitting left-handed pitching in general which won't last for long (they were one of the better teams against lefties LY). Ultimately I think Moore can put in decent enough innings to give us a chance. Cleveland usually has a nice bullpen advantage over the Rangers but Andrew Miller (STUD relief pitcher) is on DL, so they are a bit weaker there as well. Will this one? Probably not... but at nearly 3/1 I think the value is definitely there.
White Sox/Cards u8.5 -105
Giolito is obviously shaky but he has promise and is coming off a good start. His control is always an issue but the Cardinals have seen their strikeouts spike and their walks dwindle in recent games which makes me believe he has a chance to do well here. Something like 6 IP and 3 ER is definitely doable. White Sox have a decent enough pen to finish the game off. Then you have Martinez for the Cards who is an ace. CHW is hitting surprisingly well with Avisail Garcia out but I can't imagine that will translate into being able to hit a guy as good as Martinez. CHW has faced some lesser pitchers during their "hot streak" and they don't seem that scary of an offense. Cardinals' pen could be better but that will be mostly mitigated by the fact that the starter is capable of going deep (or maybe pitching all of it). Cards win 4-2.
Rockies +172
I don't think people realize how good Tyler Anderson is yet. Has future ace written all over him and he was excellent against the Cubs in Coors earlier this year. Darvish, meanwhile, hasn't looked right and has been hit by every team other than the Brewers. Yu is obviously a good pitcher when right but I can't say for certain he's right currently. Rockies' lineup is without LeMahieu but his bat matters a tick more against lefties IMO. Still a tough guy to not have but Cargo is back and Darvish had a rough start against this team already this year. Bullpens are both above average. Wind is going to be blasting out again and there isn't a ton that separates the groundball tendencies of these guys. Anderson might be a tick more likely to give up the HR but it's not a sizable difference. With neither team hitting I have to back the big dog.
Still have a lot to cap but it will have to wait until tomorrow.
Would have liked to be on the over here but it's at 10.5 already. Duffy is a good lefty who will give up runs here but probably won't get completely rocked. He's not super sharp right now but the Red Sox haven't hit lefties at all this season. Bogaerts being back for them is a nice boost to their ability vs. southpaws but Holt is out who hits lefties pretty well. Ultimately I think the Red Sox score here but don't set the world on fire. Then you have Pomeranz who had a short spring due to injury and hasn't looked right since coming back. His velocity is down and he might be tipping his pitches according to his coach. The guy just isn't right and KC has been surprisingly good vs. lefties. Red Sox have a big bullpen advantage but that's not enough to put them as this hefty of favorites. This seems like it has a chance.
Detroit Tigers +110
2 future (or current I guess) aces on the mound here. Rays hitting better, Miggy out for the Tigers. The Tigers were the top lefty hitting team in baseball last year and have barely seen left-handers this year. Really weird how they've avoided them. I love Snell but even without Miggy this lineup should be a decent challenge. Fulmer is an excellent pitcher who can dominate games. Rays have the better pen but at home I have to favor the dog.
Lean o9 in Jays/Twins. Stroman hasn't been right this season and both teams are hitting well despite 2 key pieces being out of the lineup for each squad. Twins' bullpen capable of giving up hits. This youngster the Twins are starting has potential but also has control issues. Ultimately I decided to pass as I'm not sure how long these offenses can keep producing without some important guys in the lineup. The Twins' youngster could also dominate and Stroman has to get back to normal at some point. Heavy lean but pass.
Padres/Giants o8 -120
I really really hate the idea of playing an over with 2 lefties starting against 2 teams that don't hit lefties but I can't resist. These starters are just awful. Richard can't get outs and was hit hard by the Giants earlier this year, Holland can't get outs and was hit hard by the Padres earlier this year. Giants' bullpen hittable, Padres' bullpen having issues in recent games. Renfroe out for the Padres is a big blow to their ability to hit lefties but ultimately these starters are just so bad that I have to try it.
Brewers/Reds o9 -125 (2-unit play)
Wade Miley hasn't been good in years and he is behind on the year after a groin injury. The guy has been pitching very average in AA and simply can't be counted on. Reds are mashing a bit now that their lineup is healthy. Doubt Miley lasts very long in this game. Then you have Castillo for the Reds who is getting rocked every start. Guy has potential but he's not right, coaches have been trying to correct a mechanical issue with his delivery. Brewers hit him pretty hard earlier this year. Reds' bullpen is awful and about the only reason I didn't take a shot on Cincinnati. Reds win 7-6.
I love Nola and think he'll do well here but not sure he deserves to be this big of a favorite. Guy is a legit ace but the Marlins' offense has Bour back as well as Prado/Realmuto and is in a better spot than they've been all year. Urena for the Marlins is a very nice pitcher and the Phillies offense isn't hitting that well. Game just seems like some team will win 3-2. Nola is nice but I can't see the Phillies offense doing a ton and just don't feel they deserve to be overwhelming road favs.
Teheran left his last start with an arm injury and there's a real chance he's not 100%. Vargas had a short spring due to injury, got rocked in the minors, got rocked in his debut, and doesn't seem to be in any sort of form. He's basically still in spring training. Braves are the best hitting team in baseball against lefties. They should hit him hard. Both of these bullpens are below average. Wind is blowing out at 16 MPH. The only negative is that this park plays to pitcher's a bit but both starters have a legit chance to get rocked here and with both pens likely to give up runs I have to try the over.
Lean u8.5 in Yankees/Astros but laying off for now.
Ashamed to admit it but I actually took a look at playing the Royals and stinky Skoglund tomorrow. Detroit just can't hit anyone. That being said, nope. Probably won't ever bet on Skoglund.
Athletics -120
So I'm fully aware that this is probably the trap line of the year but I'm still going to try. Manaea is an ace, facing a good-hitting Seattle team but he dominated them earlier this year. I figure he'll regress a tick, maybe give up 2 or 3 runs over 6 or 7 innings. He's probably due for a lesser game. Manaea's ability to go deeper into games mitigates Oakland's iffy pen quite a bit. Then you have Wade LeBlanc starting for the Mariners. Guy is a below average at best pitcher and the A's have done nicely against lefties. Oakland is in a bit of a slump during this road trip but LeBlanc simply can't be counted on to get outs any more. He's also been in the pen so I wouldn't expect him to last very long here even if he doesn't get knocked out early. How is Oakland only -120? Line is going to attract like 80% of the money. I usually avoid spots like this but just don't think LeBlanc is capable of getting outs. Have to take a shot against my better judgement.
Waiting until tomorrow to cap LAD @ ARI (Peralta status) and waiting on starting pitchers to be named in TOR @ CLE game 2 (Donaldson might return to lineup there too), BOS @ TEX, MIN @ CHW, and BAL @ LAA.
Minor is a solid lefty, facing a Boston team that struggled with lefties last year and hasn't done particularly well against any good lefties this season. Getting Bogaerts back will improve their ability to hit southpaws but they still seem below average in that category. David Price is obviously very good at times but he's also been shaky lately. Not sure what his issue is... starting to wonder if his elbow problems are back. He hasn't looked right his last few starts. Even if Price is healthy I'm still not sure if Boston deserves to be this large of favorites.
Perhaps this is nothing, just an off start, but Patrick Corbins velocity is down about 3-4 mph off his average against the Dodgers today. Hes sitting 88-89 when hes typically 91-94. The results have been excellent anyway, with one run over five innings. Still odd.
This one should hit easy IMO. Tomlin has been a mess this year and he's probably just not good enough to be an MLB starter anymore. He's giving up home runs left and right, facing a team that can crush HRs with the best of them. On top of that, the wind is blasting out (projections at 17 MPH) at Yankee Stadium tomorrow and Cleveland is without one of their best relief pitchers. Sabathia is capable of putting in good innings despite his age but the Indians were one of the best hitting teams vs. southpaws last year and have hit CC hard numerous times over the last few years. Sabathia is still capable of doing decent but I think he'll probably give up maybe 3 runs over 5 innings or so here. Cleveland bats are pretty hot lately and they are also hitting for a ton of power. Yankees win 8-4.
Lean Rockies and over 8.5 but going to pass for now. Neither pitcher is great but neither is trash either. Mets not hitting, Rockies only hitting a little. Wind blasting out close to 20 MPH and both starters give up some long balls but it's also a park that usually caters to pitchers. Not really sure what to expect here...
Cardinals -110
Not particularly sure I trust either starter but these offenses aren't doing much hitting lately and Mikolas seems to be the safer bet. The Cubs' offense is way out of sorts and Mikolas has proven he can do well against light-hitting teams. Quintana has only pitched well against one team this year but he's probably better than his stats indicate. The Cardinals are a good lefty-hitting team and did pretty well against him in 2 starts last year. Slight pen edge to the Cubs but -110 seems like a steal for the home team. Slightly more on-track offense, slightly better starter. Line just seems light.
Still waiting to cap PHI @ WAS, TOR @ TB, SF @ ATL, PIT @ MIL, MIN @ CHW, DET @ KC, LAD @ SD, HOU @ ARI, and LAA @ SEA either due to injuries or no name pitchers.
Alex Cora on David Price -- 'It seems like theres no separation in his pitches right now. If youre a hitter, you look for something in the range of 90-91, pick a side of the plate and go from there. He has to make adjustments. The stuff you see the radar gun. It was there.'
Also how the heck did Tillman pitch that game against the Tigers a start ago? Is Detroit that awful? Baffles me.
I think that way sometimes but then I remember that every player in the major leagues has talent. Some have more than others and some are more consistent with it than others but all have it or they wouldn't be there. And every now and then somebody who's been getting pounded regularly is gonna stick one in my face just like the Kershaws of the game occasionally can't get through the order once. All you can do is move on.
Lean o8.5 in Phillies/Nats but passing for now. Lean Nats ML as well but not sure what to expect on the side with the wind blowing out heavy.
Lean Rays +152, Smoak probably out for Jays and Rays have been hitting lefties well. That being said I still don't fully trust these bullpen games that TB is messing with. Toronto doesn't deserve to be this big of a favorite on the road but just can't pull the trigger.
Would have been on Royals if I capped it yesterday but was waiting on Miguel Cabrera's status. Sounds like he's out. I had it closer to -140, line has been bet up almost 25 cents to -130. Could possibly still bet it but going to lay off.
Padres +103
Value has been sucked out here too but I still think there is room for a bet. The Dodgers haven't been hitting lefties and being without Seager won't help in that facet. 2 important guys out of the lineup for each team. Buehler and Lucchesi have both been rushed to the Majors. Padres' offense hitting better than the Dodgers' lately. Buehler's high WHIP vs. lesser offenses indicates he'll be a better fade down the road against a team more capable on offense than San Diego. Both starters should do well. San Diego's bullpen has been better than LAD's thus far, and at home I just can't see the Padres being the dog here. I had everything else about even but once you add in home field the line is definitely bettable.
Astros -1.5 -120
Another one that has been steamed but still has some value left. Cole is one of the better pitchers in baseball and pitched well in Arizona before they added the humidor. He's throwing incredible innings right now and should put in another great start. Then you have Medlen... sad to see how his career went. Had so much potential. He's hasn't been able to get outs for a few years now and has been killed in AAA for the past few seasons. The guy simply doesn't have it after all those surgeries. Houston hasn't been hitting that well but they've also faced some solid pitchers. Medlen is about a high A pitcher at this point... would have to figure that Houston can hit him even during this cold streak of theirs. Both pens good, Houston's probably a tick better despite the recent struggle.
Mariners +110
Richards still seems like he's searching for his command and Seattle's offense is in a good place. Richards is also taking a million pitches to get thru innings so even if he doesn't give up runs it seems likely that this struggling Angels' pen will have to shoulder quite a bit of the load. Leake for Seattle isn't anything special but he pitched well against the Angels last year and seems capable of quality innings with LAA not hitting a ton lately. Angels' offense has been finally showing signs of life their last 2 games which scares me a bit but one of those starts was against Chris Tillman who is not an MLB pitcher so I'm going to assume, cautiously, they still are having offensive issues. Seattle should be a small favorite here until Richards proves he can command his stuff.
Probably some value in Cubs/Cards under with neither team hitting right not but laying off for now. Was hoping line would be a tick higher.
Lean Nats -140, been bet up 10 cents already and pushed me off of it.
Royals -133
Zimmerman is coming off his best game in years and has a nice history against the Royals but I just don't think he's capable of getting outs any more. The Royals are hitting pretty well right now and it doesn't take much to get runs off Zimmerman. Faded Hammel last time out but he's still a decent enough pitcher and he'll be going up against a Tigers squad that hasn't been hitting any decent pitchers lately. Miggy Cabera is now on DL too. KC's bullpen is awful but Detroit's isn't anything worth trusting. Home team with the better starter and better offense is worth more than -133 even with the sketchy bullpen. I just don't trust Zimmerman to get outs...
Brewers +109
Don't feel that confident here but no matter how many times I go over everything and set my lines I still have the Brewers coming out as the favorites. Taillon is a potential ace and the Brewers' offense isn't anything special. I think he'll do well. Chacin has some less-than-friendly indicator stats but I also think he's capable of throwing strong innings against lesser offenses and I feel like Pittsburgh's is starting to slump a bit. Their walk rates and hits are trending down, while their strikeouts have been a tick high lately. Obviously part of that is facing Scherzer/Strasburg recently but they also couldn't hit Hellickson. I'm not 100% sold on the offense trending down but thinking that is what's happening. There is no way they could keep up their early season production anyway. Brewers have a nice bullpen advantage... heck they might have the 2nd best pen in baseball. All in all +109 on the home team just didn't add up. Taillon loses his command at times, but Taillon throwing a no hitter wouldn't surprise me here either. I'll try it.
Lean Padres +188 and really could be playing it but someone hit the Dodgers 50 cents off the BOL opener earlier... honestly it just kinda scared me off. I feel like I missed something or that someone knows something I don't. Mitchell is awful but the Dodgers aren't hitting at all right now. Maeda is solid but hasn't been sharp in some recent starts and has had issues with the Padres in the past. Padres pen might be better. I didn't expect the Padres to be favored or anything but I thought the BOL opener had value on the Padres... and then LAD got steamed 50 more cents from there... Something doesn't feel right, going to pass.
Reds -120
Two youngsters starting and I think Mahle is the slightly better pitcher of the 2. He's also facing a Marlins' offense that isn't hitting, while Caleb Smith has to face a Reds' offense that is hitting really well. Not entirely sure Cincinnati is as good against lefties as they appear statistically (have faced some poor ones) but they seem decent vs. southpaws at worst. I figured Miami's offense would improve once they got some of their vets healthy but it looks like the replacement guys were hitting better than the names you'd expect to do well. Miami's offense looks flat. Cincinnati obviously has that awful pen that can give up 20 runs in 3 innings really fast but the Marlins' pen isn't to be trusted either. At home, better starter, better offense; fingers crossed the pen doesn't do anything stupid.
Lean Braves -150. It's right in that grey zone where I could pass or play. Passing for now. Could see both pens having issues.
Lean Rockies +112, playable but wanted a bit more. Matz is having the back issues and hasn't looked right, but he has ace potential. Bettis is throwing great but is probably due for a regression. Despite that the Mets are hitting so poorly that I'm interested here. Will see where the lines moves, hoping for a few more cents.
Rangers +143
Starting to get annoyed that I can't find a single total I like, but that has nothing to do with this play. The Red Sox haven't hit lefties well at all this year and were not good last year. Bogaerts being back helps them against lefties but Pedroia (one of the few guys that can hit lefties for them) has been out all year and now Holt is hurt too (another good lefty hitter). The Boston lineup, despite how well they are hitting, just isn't that good against southpaws. Hamels is a quality pitcher that should give his team a chance here. The Rangers are hitting relatively well but are also without a key cog vs. southpaws in Adrian Beltre. Eduardo Rodriguez is a sturdy lefty for Boston and the Rangers have hit lefties at about an average level this year. This one just seems like the starters are pretty evenly matched and Boston's solid bullpen edge is met with Texas being at home. IMO the Rangers should be small favorites here until Boston can prove they can hit decent lefties.
DBacks +110
Astros/DBacks u8 -110
Greinke has been a stud at home and he's really enjoying this humidor. Without the humidor Greinke still dominated the Astros at home last year and Houston's offense is not sharp at all. I expect Greinke to have an excellent start. Morton's one of my favorite pitchers to root for but he's been pitching better than he's capable of and a part of that has been drawing mostly home starts against teams who aren't in good form offensively. I still think Morton is a quality pitcher capable of getting outs but he probably gives up a few runs against this good DBacks lineup. Houston might have a tick better pen but both are very good. Arizona should be favored here and I think they win 3-1.
Orioles +135
This was another borderline play but I decided to take a shot. Neither offense is looking particularly good right now. The Orioles have brought down their strikeouts finally and are being more patient but the power numbers have dipped in the process. Oakland has seen their strikeouts go way up and their walks down. Not much separation between the offenses as far as form. I also don't see much separation between the starting pitchers. Both guys are average-at-best MLB starters, guessing both guys finish the year with 4.20 ERAs and 1.25 WHIPs or something similar. Oakland at home, Baltimore has a slight pen edge. Oakland deserves to be the favorite but closer to -125 or -130 than -145. I'll roll the dice here.
Mariners +106
My nonstop slate of sides continues. I had the Mariners favored here. I don't think Skaggs is any better than Gonzales. Gonzales started slow but is rounding into form. His ceiling is much higher than Skaggs'. Skaggs has a nice stat line but he's also barely escaped trouble a few times this year and is playing with fire. The Angels may be starting to hit again but they were awful against lefties last year and have been very poor so far this season. Seattle wasn't that good against lefties last year but they have hit them well so far. Gonzales is a youngster so he's going to have random games where he loses it but he seems to be in a good spot. Home team with the easier-to-trust offense and with Gonzales (IMO at least) being a slightly better pitcher... easy play on the home dog. Pens are both average. Lean over.
Only game I didn't get to cap is CHW @ MIN as I'm waiting on a starter to be named.
Lean White Sox +108 but not messing with it. Lynn should get back to being a good pitcher before too long (had no spring as he signed late). Not sure if Santiago can ever return to being a good pitcher... White Sox have bullpen edge but Twins' offense is much nicer. Ultimately have no clue how Lynn looks here so will pass.
Lean Indians +113 but passing. Cleveland's pen is still without Andrew Miller and this German kid for the Yankees is talented. Think this is closer to a pk but not sure I want to mess with it with Miller out and Cleveland's pen struggling. Clevinger seems capable here though. Lean under 10 as well. It's set too high but, once again, Cleveland's pen scares me and German wouldn't be the first talented starter to have a rough go in his first try at this level.
Rockies +177
Syndergaard is obviously a stud but Colorado is hitting decently enough to put up a couple runs here. That might be all they need as the Mets can't hit lefties and aren't hitting anyone particularly well lately. Freeland is a solid lefty that should give his team a chance and Colorado also has the bullpen advantage. I had the Mets closer to -165. Wind is blowing in in this pitcher's park and I expect someone to win 3-2. Leaned under a tick.
Jays/Rays o8 +110
Smoak is back for the Jays and I'm not entirely sure I trust Archer yet. He had his spring cut short due to injury and started out looking really rusty. He's pitched well in 2 of his last 3 but one of those games was against the light-hitting Tigers and he also got rocked in between. Ultimately he probably pitches well enough but gives up a few runs. The real reason I like this bet is because Estrada is a mess. He's trending downward on his career and is giving up home runs left and right. Tampa's offense is hitting pretty well lately and Estrada was rocked by the Rays in all 4 starts against them last year. Tampa's park favors pitchers but Estrada gaves up 5 homers over 11 innings pitched here in 2017. He's just not worth trusting. 8 seems half a run too low and then top it off with +110 and I'll take a shot.
Lean Nats -175. Seems a tick low but don't feel like messing with a huge favorite.
Only have capped 4 games, going to mow the lawn and finish the card.
Bauers slider is really a big deal. Now hes gut something between his curve and fastball that he can throw in the zone. Called strike three on Romine.
I don't trust Saurez too much. His WHIP in the minors indicates that he's pitching above his level right now. The Braves are the best team in baseball against lefties and they are also hitting for plenty of power which is good against Suarez who gives up a lot of HRs. Soroka projects to be the better Major Leaguer. There is some worry here as he is super young and probably moved up a level too high but he has also dominated at every level of the minor leagues. The guy has ace potential, or at least very good MLB pitcher potential. Both teams hitting pretty well, neither has a bullpen that it particularly trustworthy. Just think the home team with the better pitcher should be favored by more than -136 with everything else about equal.
Brewers -132
Brewers lines have been real low lately compared to what I'm making the ML at. Not sure what is up with that. Anyway, Pittsburgh offense is starting to trend down and Chase Anderson is a good pitcher who dominated them 3 times last year. I doubt Pittsburgh gets much done offensively. Milwaukee's offense is starting to hit a bit finally but it's tough to tell where they are at since they haven't faced real good pitching during their "revival". Milwaukee was an offense I expected to get going before too long as they had all those injuries earlier in the year and I, somewhat cautiously, think they are starting to hit. The Brewers have the better pen, the better starter, are at home, and I think they have the hotter offense. Why is this line so low? Kuhl has potential but he's had potential for years and just can't see to get it together at the top level. Brewers win 5-2. Lean under as well but decided to lay off. Pirates' pen has been very impressive after that rough start but Kuhl doesn't go long in games which could cause the pen to break down again.
Tigers/Royals u9 -120
Would load up on 1st 5 here if it was offered but no one has it up yet. It's the better bet, but I felt both starters are capable of going deep enough into the game that maybe these 2 trash bullpens won't be able to ruin it. Detroit isn't hitting that well and is without Miggy Cabrera. Junis has dominated them twice already this year. Junis is a future/maybe current ace, Boyd is a future/maybe current ace. These starters are going to be very good. Boyd is a stud lefty who shut down the Royals once this season. He is finally realizing his potential after pitching far below it the past couple of years. KC hits lefties well enough but they've done most of their damage against bad lefties and have had trouble hitting the better ones. Like I said, these are 2 of the least trustworthy bullpens in baseball but this seems like a game where both starters can go deep. Guessing the Royals are up 2-1 after 7 innings and then we'll just hope for the best.
Texas shouldn't be +220 underdogs at home but I'm not touching it. Fister is due for a massive ERA regression. Doesn't deserve to be this large of a dog but I don't think I want to touch it.
Lean White Sox but I want to see how Kyle Gibson does. I'm coming around to the fact that he might potentially not be as awful as I had originally thought. 2 good games in a row and finished well in the 2H last year. Is he figuring it out after 2 bad seasons? This is a good one for me to watch, as opposed to bet.
Seems like the A's might be favored by too much. Triggs is solid but he's pretty hittable most of the time too. Nothing special, although one day I think he'll be very good. A's have the lesser bullpen. I wouldn't hate taking a shot on the Orioles but this is another wait-and-see game. Cobb is coming off his first decent outing of the year after starting the season way late... was getting rocked left and right. He's essentially going through spring training to start the regular season after not signing a deal until like 10 days before the season started. Anyway, coming off 1st decent start... he still isn't in regular season form with his location but his last game was night and day better than his first 3 starts. Cobb will eventually come around and be a very good pitcher but I'm not sure he's there yet. It may be worth playing the huge dog on the off chance he is, but for now I'll pass.
Dodgers/Padres o8.5 -120
Now that my idiot self is aware the Dodgers and Padres are playing in Mexico I can finally make a line that makes sense. Was wondering why my lines were so far off in this series. Just oblivious and stupid I guess. Anyway, massive difference between Petco and this park. This park is a nice hitter's park with it's smaller dimensions and humidity. Rich Hill is trending downward in his career (normal for a guy pushing 40) and this will be his first start back after letting a broken fingernail heal up. I'm sure the nail caused him issues but Hill was ready to give up some runs this year either way and now there's the chance he'll be rusty after taking off. San Diego isn't anything special with the bats but I think they score a few runs here. Then you have Lauer for the Padres who I went over on and own easily in his last start. Guy will be decent in a few years but he's being rushed to the Majors and simply isn't ready. LAD has some excellent lefty hitters out of the lineup and they've been poor vs. southpaws but one thing they have done is hit the poor lefties. Lauer is a poor lefty. Both bullpens have potential but neither pitching terribly well right now and I doubt either starter lasts very long. This game seems closer to 9.5 to me.
Marlins/Reds o9 -118 (2-unit play, graded as 1-unit for record keeping)
On one hand you have Dan Straily who was hurt most of the year, started super late, got rocked in 3 minor league games against nobodies, and then got rocked in his debut. On the other hand you have Finnegan, a lefty with a constantly high WHIP who is pitching terribly thus far. Oh, did I mention that both guys give up a ton of HRs and this game is played in a park that annually give up a ton of HRs? Did I also mention that these bullpens are probably 2 of the 7 or 8 worst in baseball? This over was an easy decision. There is the possibility that Finnegan has one of those games where he puts a lot of guys on base and gets out of it... it's definitely possible against this light-hitting Marlins squad. That being said, I still think the over hits as these bullpens are bad. Cincy is hitting right-handers extremely well now that their lineup is healthy. I just don't see Straily figuring for another few starts, and Finnegan has proven that his high WHIP and large amount of HR's allowed can get him into trouble. Makes sense to me. Reds win 9-5.
Only game I didn't cap is CHC @ STL with Pham and Yaddy both iffy for the Cards.
Really needed that Mariners comeback win. Wouldn't have been a happy person if bullpens blew my 3rd bet of the night in the final inning. Was a rough one but bleeding limited despite the other late losses.
Really needed that Mariners comeback win. Wouldn't have been a happy person if bullpens blew my 3rd bet of the night in the final inning. Was a rough one but bleeding limited despite the other late losses.
Record: 92-93 -.11
Jake, your cheating the record 4-4 yesterday 89-90 going into yesterday overall 93-94 the units are correct. Thank You for sharing lets win the 2 unit today.
Comments
I knew it from yesterday! hopefully it still works out!
Ughhhhh why am I betting this? Even I don't feel good about it but I didn't have Cleveland anywhere near as large of a favorite. Kluber is a stud obviously but he's capable of giving up HRs here and there. Texas hits HRs well. Thinking we have a shot if they can clock a HR or 2. Then Matt Moore... not a very good pitcher. That being said, Cleveland couldn't hit him last year when he was equally bad. Cleveland just isn't hitting left-handed pitching in general which won't last for long (they were one of the better teams against lefties LY). Ultimately I think Moore can put in decent enough innings to give us a chance. Cleveland usually has a nice bullpen advantage over the Rangers but Andrew Miller (STUD relief pitcher) is on DL, so they are a bit weaker there as well. Will this one? Probably not... but at nearly 3/1 I think the value is definitely there.
White Sox/Cards u8.5 -105
Giolito is obviously shaky but he has promise and is coming off a good start. His control is always an issue but the Cardinals have seen their strikeouts spike and their walks dwindle in recent games which makes me believe he has a chance to do well here. Something like 6 IP and 3 ER is definitely doable. White Sox have a decent enough pen to finish the game off. Then you have Martinez for the Cards who is an ace. CHW is hitting surprisingly well with Avisail Garcia out but I can't imagine that will translate into being able to hit a guy as good as Martinez. CHW has faced some lesser pitchers during their "hot streak" and they don't seem that scary of an offense. Cardinals' pen could be better but that will be mostly mitigated by the fact that the starter is capable of going deep (or maybe pitching all of it). Cards win 4-2.
Rockies +172
I don't think people realize how good Tyler Anderson is yet. Has future ace written all over him and he was excellent against the Cubs in Coors earlier this year. Darvish, meanwhile, hasn't looked right and has been hit by every team other than the Brewers. Yu is obviously a good pitcher when right but I can't say for certain he's right currently. Rockies' lineup is without LeMahieu but his bat matters a tick more against lefties IMO. Still a tough guy to not have but Cargo is back and Darvish had a rough start against this team already this year. Bullpens are both above average. Wind is going to be blasting out again and there isn't a ton that separates the groundball tendencies of these guys. Anderson might be a tick more likely to give up the HR but it's not a sizable difference. With neither team hitting I have to back the big dog.
Still have a lot to cap but it will have to wait until tomorrow.
Would have liked to be on the over here but it's at 10.5 already. Duffy is a good lefty who will give up runs here but probably won't get completely rocked. He's not super sharp right now but the Red Sox haven't hit lefties at all this season. Bogaerts being back for them is a nice boost to their ability vs. southpaws but Holt is out who hits lefties pretty well. Ultimately I think the Red Sox score here but don't set the world on fire. Then you have Pomeranz who had a short spring due to injury and hasn't looked right since coming back. His velocity is down and he might be tipping his pitches according to his coach. The guy just isn't right and KC has been surprisingly good vs. lefties. Red Sox have a big bullpen advantage but that's not enough to put them as this hefty of favorites. This seems like it has a chance.
Detroit Tigers +110
2 future (or current I guess) aces on the mound here. Rays hitting better, Miggy out for the Tigers. The Tigers were the top lefty hitting team in baseball last year and have barely seen left-handers this year. Really weird how they've avoided them. I love Snell but even without Miggy this lineup should be a decent challenge. Fulmer is an excellent pitcher who can dominate games. Rays have the better pen but at home I have to favor the dog.
Padres/Giants o8 -120
I really really hate the idea of playing an over with 2 lefties starting against 2 teams that don't hit lefties but I can't resist. These starters are just awful. Richard can't get outs and was hit hard by the Giants earlier this year, Holland can't get outs and was hit hard by the Padres earlier this year. Giants' bullpen hittable, Padres' bullpen having issues in recent games. Renfroe out for the Padres is a big blow to their ability to hit lefties but ultimately these starters are just so bad that I have to try it.
Brewers/Reds o9 -125 (2-unit play)
Wade Miley hasn't been good in years and he is behind on the year after a groin injury. The guy has been pitching very average in AA and simply can't be counted on. Reds are mashing a bit now that their lineup is healthy. Doubt Miley lasts very long in this game. Then you have Castillo for the Reds who is getting rocked every start. Guy has potential but he's not right, coaches have been trying to correct a mechanical issue with his delivery. Brewers hit him pretty hard earlier this year. Reds' bullpen is awful and about the only reason I didn't take a shot on Cincinnati. Reds win 7-6.
I love Nola and think he'll do well here but not sure he deserves to be this big of a favorite. Guy is a legit ace but the Marlins' offense has Bour back as well as Prado/Realmuto and is in a better spot than they've been all year. Urena for the Marlins is a very nice pitcher and the Phillies offense isn't hitting that well. Game just seems like some team will win 3-2. Nola is nice but I can't see the Phillies offense doing a ton and just don't feel they deserve to be overwhelming road favs.
Braves/Mets o9 -105
Teheran left his last start with an arm injury and there's a real chance he's not 100%. Vargas had a short spring due to injury, got rocked in the minors, got rocked in his debut, and doesn't seem to be in any sort of form. He's basically still in spring training. Braves are the best hitting team in baseball against lefties. They should hit him hard. Both of these bullpens are below average. Wind is blowing out at 16 MPH. The only negative is that this park plays to pitcher's a bit but both starters have a legit chance to get rocked here and with both pens likely to give up runs I have to try the over.
Lean u8.5 in Yankees/Astros but laying off for now.
Ashamed to admit it but I actually took a look at playing the Royals and stinky Skoglund tomorrow. Detroit just can't hit anyone. That being said, nope. Probably won't ever bet on Skoglund.
Athletics -120
So I'm fully aware that this is probably the trap line of the year but I'm still going to try. Manaea is an ace, facing a good-hitting Seattle team but he dominated them earlier this year. I figure he'll regress a tick, maybe give up 2 or 3 runs over 6 or 7 innings. He's probably due for a lesser game. Manaea's ability to go deeper into games mitigates Oakland's iffy pen quite a bit. Then you have Wade LeBlanc starting for the Mariners. Guy is a below average at best pitcher and the A's have done nicely against lefties. Oakland is in a bit of a slump during this road trip but LeBlanc simply can't be counted on to get outs any more. He's also been in the pen so I wouldn't expect him to last very long here even if he doesn't get knocked out early. How is Oakland only -120? Line is going to attract like 80% of the money. I usually avoid spots like this but just don't think LeBlanc is capable of getting outs. Have to take a shot against my better judgement.
Waiting until tomorrow to cap LAD @ ARI (Peralta status) and waiting on starting pitchers to be named in TOR @ CLE game 2 (Donaldson might return to lineup there too), BOS @ TEX, MIN @ CHW, and BAL @ LAA.
Minor is a solid lefty, facing a Boston team that struggled with lefties last year and hasn't done particularly well against any good lefties this season. Getting Bogaerts back will improve their ability to hit southpaws but they still seem below average in that category. David Price is obviously very good at times but he's also been shaky lately. Not sure what his issue is... starting to wonder if his elbow problems are back. He hasn't looked right his last few starts. Even if Price is healthy I'm still not sure if Boston deserves to be this large of favorites.
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Perhaps this is nothing, just an off start, but Patrick Corbins velocity is down about 3-4 mph off his average against the Dodgers today. Hes sitting 88-89 when hes typically 91-94. The results have been excellent anyway, with one run over five innings. Still odd.
Indians/Yankees o9.5 -115
This one should hit easy IMO. Tomlin has been a mess this year and he's probably just not good enough to be an MLB starter anymore. He's giving up home runs left and right, facing a team that can crush HRs with the best of them. On top of that, the wind is blasting out (projections at 17 MPH) at Yankee Stadium tomorrow and Cleveland is without one of their best relief pitchers. Sabathia is capable of putting in good innings despite his age but the Indians were one of the best hitting teams vs. southpaws last year and have hit CC hard numerous times over the last few years. Sabathia is still capable of doing decent but I think he'll probably give up maybe 3 runs over 5 innings or so here. Cleveland bats are pretty hot lately and they are also hitting for a ton of power. Yankees win 8-4.
Lean Rockies and over 8.5 but going to pass for now. Neither pitcher is great but neither is trash either. Mets not hitting, Rockies only hitting a little. Wind blasting out close to 20 MPH and both starters give up some long balls but it's also a park that usually caters to pitchers. Not really sure what to expect here...
Cardinals -110
Not particularly sure I trust either starter but these offenses aren't doing much hitting lately and Mikolas seems to be the safer bet. The Cubs' offense is way out of sorts and Mikolas has proven he can do well against light-hitting teams. Quintana has only pitched well against one team this year but he's probably better than his stats indicate. The Cardinals are a good lefty-hitting team and did pretty well against him in 2 starts last year. Slight pen edge to the Cubs but -110 seems like a steal for the home team. Slightly more on-track offense, slightly better starter. Line just seems light.
Still waiting to cap PHI @ WAS, TOR @ TB, SF @ ATL, PIT @ MIL, MIN @ CHW, DET @ KC, LAD @ SD, HOU @ ARI, and LAA @ SEA either due to injuries or no name pitchers.
20s
Alex Cora on David Price -- 'It seems like theres no separation in his pitches right now. If youre a hitter, you look for something in the range of 90-91, pick a side of the plate and go from there. He has to make adjustments. The stuff you see the radar gun. It was there.'
Record: 86-88 -.83
I think that way sometimes but then I remember that every player in the major leagues has talent. Some have more than others and some are more consistent with it than others but all have it or they wouldn't be there. And every now and then somebody who's been getting pounded regularly is gonna stick one in my face just like the Kershaws of the game occasionally can't get through the order once. All you can do is move on.
Lean Rays +152, Smoak probably out for Jays and Rays have been hitting lefties well. That being said I still don't fully trust these bullpen games that TB is messing with. Toronto doesn't deserve to be this big of a favorite on the road but just can't pull the trigger.
Would have been on Royals if I capped it yesterday but was waiting on Miguel Cabrera's status. Sounds like he's out. I had it closer to -140, line has been bet up almost 25 cents to -130. Could possibly still bet it but going to lay off.
Padres +103
Value has been sucked out here too but I still think there is room for a bet. The Dodgers haven't been hitting lefties and being without Seager won't help in that facet. 2 important guys out of the lineup for each team. Buehler and Lucchesi have both been rushed to the Majors. Padres' offense hitting better than the Dodgers' lately. Buehler's high WHIP vs. lesser offenses indicates he'll be a better fade down the road against a team more capable on offense than San Diego. Both starters should do well. San Diego's bullpen has been better than LAD's thus far, and at home I just can't see the Padres being the dog here. I had everything else about even but once you add in home field the line is definitely bettable.
Astros -1.5 -120
Another one that has been steamed but still has some value left. Cole is one of the better pitchers in baseball and pitched well in Arizona before they added the humidor. He's throwing incredible innings right now and should put in another great start. Then you have Medlen... sad to see how his career went. Had so much potential. He's hasn't been able to get outs for a few years now and has been killed in AAA for the past few seasons. The guy simply doesn't have it after all those surgeries. Houston hasn't been hitting that well but they've also faced some solid pitchers. Medlen is about a high A pitcher at this point... would have to figure that Houston can hit him even during this cold streak of theirs. Both pens good, Houston's probably a tick better despite the recent struggle.
Mariners +110
Richards still seems like he's searching for his command and Seattle's offense is in a good place. Richards is also taking a million pitches to get thru innings so even if he doesn't give up runs it seems likely that this struggling Angels' pen will have to shoulder quite a bit of the load. Leake for Seattle isn't anything special but he pitched well against the Angels last year and seems capable of quality innings with LAA not hitting a ton lately. Angels' offense has been finally showing signs of life their last 2 games which scares me a bit but one of those starts was against Chris Tillman who is not an MLB pitcher so I'm going to assume, cautiously, they still are having offensive issues. Seattle should be a small favorite here until Richards proves he can command his stuff.
Probably some value in Cubs/Cards under with neither team hitting right not but laying off for now. Was hoping line would be a tick higher.
Lean Nats -140, been bet up 10 cents already and pushed me off of it.
Royals -133
Zimmerman is coming off his best game in years and has a nice history against the Royals but I just don't think he's capable of getting outs any more. The Royals are hitting pretty well right now and it doesn't take much to get runs off Zimmerman. Faded Hammel last time out but he's still a decent enough pitcher and he'll be going up against a Tigers squad that hasn't been hitting any decent pitchers lately. Miggy Cabera is now on DL too. KC's bullpen is awful but Detroit's isn't anything worth trusting. Home team with the better starter and better offense is worth more than -133 even with the sketchy bullpen. I just don't trust Zimmerman to get outs...
Brewers +109
Don't feel that confident here but no matter how many times I go over everything and set my lines I still have the Brewers coming out as the favorites. Taillon is a potential ace and the Brewers' offense isn't anything special. I think he'll do well. Chacin has some less-than-friendly indicator stats but I also think he's capable of throwing strong innings against lesser offenses and I feel like Pittsburgh's is starting to slump a bit. Their walk rates and hits are trending down, while their strikeouts have been a tick high lately. Obviously part of that is facing Scherzer/Strasburg recently but they also couldn't hit Hellickson. I'm not 100% sold on the offense trending down but thinking that is what's happening. There is no way they could keep up their early season production anyway. Brewers have a nice bullpen advantage... heck they might have the 2nd best pen in baseball. All in all +109 on the home team just didn't add up. Taillon loses his command at times, but Taillon throwing a no hitter wouldn't surprise me here either. I'll try it.
Lean Padres +188 and really could be playing it but someone hit the Dodgers 50 cents off the BOL opener earlier... honestly it just kinda scared me off. I feel like I missed something or that someone knows something I don't. Mitchell is awful but the Dodgers aren't hitting at all right now. Maeda is solid but hasn't been sharp in some recent starts and has had issues with the Padres in the past. Padres pen might be better. I didn't expect the Padres to be favored or anything but I thought the BOL opener had value on the Padres... and then LAD got steamed 50 more cents from there... Something doesn't feel right, going to pass.
Reds -120
Two youngsters starting and I think Mahle is the slightly better pitcher of the 2. He's also facing a Marlins' offense that isn't hitting, while Caleb Smith has to face a Reds' offense that is hitting really well. Not entirely sure Cincinnati is as good against lefties as they appear statistically (have faced some poor ones) but they seem decent vs. southpaws at worst. I figured Miami's offense would improve once they got some of their vets healthy but it looks like the replacement guys were hitting better than the names you'd expect to do well. Miami's offense looks flat. Cincinnati obviously has that awful pen that can give up 20 runs in 3 innings really fast but the Marlins' pen isn't to be trusted either. At home, better starter, better offense; fingers crossed the pen doesn't do anything stupid.
Lean Braves -150. It's right in that grey zone where I could pass or play. Passing for now. Could see both pens having issues.
Rangers +143
Starting to get annoyed that I can't find a single total I like, but that has nothing to do with this play. The Red Sox haven't hit lefties well at all this year and were not good last year. Bogaerts being back helps them against lefties but Pedroia (one of the few guys that can hit lefties for them) has been out all year and now Holt is hurt too (another good lefty hitter). The Boston lineup, despite how well they are hitting, just isn't that good against southpaws. Hamels is a quality pitcher that should give his team a chance here. The Rangers are hitting relatively well but are also without a key cog vs. southpaws in Adrian Beltre. Eduardo Rodriguez is a sturdy lefty for Boston and the Rangers have hit lefties at about an average level this year. This one just seems like the starters are pretty evenly matched and Boston's solid bullpen edge is met with Texas being at home. IMO the Rangers should be small favorites here until Boston can prove they can hit decent lefties.
DBacks +110
Astros/DBacks u8 -110
Greinke has been a stud at home and he's really enjoying this humidor. Without the humidor Greinke still dominated the Astros at home last year and Houston's offense is not sharp at all. I expect Greinke to have an excellent start. Morton's one of my favorite pitchers to root for but he's been pitching better than he's capable of and a part of that has been drawing mostly home starts against teams who aren't in good form offensively. I still think Morton is a quality pitcher capable of getting outs but he probably gives up a few runs against this good DBacks lineup. Houston might have a tick better pen but both are very good. Arizona should be favored here and I think they win 3-1.
Orioles +135
This was another borderline play but I decided to take a shot. Neither offense is looking particularly good right now. The Orioles have brought down their strikeouts finally and are being more patient but the power numbers have dipped in the process. Oakland has seen their strikeouts go way up and their walks down. Not much separation between the offenses as far as form. I also don't see much separation between the starting pitchers. Both guys are average-at-best MLB starters, guessing both guys finish the year with 4.20 ERAs and 1.25 WHIPs or something similar. Oakland at home, Baltimore has a slight pen edge. Oakland deserves to be the favorite but closer to -125 or -130 than -145. I'll roll the dice here.
Mariners +106
My nonstop slate of sides continues. I had the Mariners favored here. I don't think Skaggs is any better than Gonzales. Gonzales started slow but is rounding into form. His ceiling is much higher than Skaggs'. Skaggs has a nice stat line but he's also barely escaped trouble a few times this year and is playing with fire. The Angels may be starting to hit again but they were awful against lefties last year and have been very poor so far this season. Seattle wasn't that good against lefties last year but they have hit them well so far. Gonzales is a youngster so he's going to have random games where he loses it but he seems to be in a good spot. Home team with the easier-to-trust offense and with Gonzales (IMO at least) being a slightly better pitcher... easy play on the home dog. Pens are both average. Lean over.
Only game I didn't get to cap is CHW @ MIN as I'm waiting on a starter to be named.
Lean Indians +113 but passing. Cleveland's pen is still without Andrew Miller and this German kid for the Yankees is talented. Think this is closer to a pk but not sure I want to mess with it with Miller out and Cleveland's pen struggling. Clevinger seems capable here though. Lean under 10 as well. It's set too high but, once again, Cleveland's pen scares me and German wouldn't be the first talented starter to have a rough go in his first try at this level.
Rockies +177
Syndergaard is obviously a stud but Colorado is hitting decently enough to put up a couple runs here. That might be all they need as the Mets can't hit lefties and aren't hitting anyone particularly well lately. Freeland is a solid lefty that should give his team a chance and Colorado also has the bullpen advantage. I had the Mets closer to -165. Wind is blowing in in this pitcher's park and I expect someone to win 3-2. Leaned under a tick.
Jays/Rays o8 +110
Smoak is back for the Jays and I'm not entirely sure I trust Archer yet. He had his spring cut short due to injury and started out looking really rusty. He's pitched well in 2 of his last 3 but one of those games was against the light-hitting Tigers and he also got rocked in between. Ultimately he probably pitches well enough but gives up a few runs. The real reason I like this bet is because Estrada is a mess. He's trending downward on his career and is giving up home runs left and right. Tampa's offense is hitting pretty well lately and Estrada was rocked by the Rays in all 4 starts against them last year. Tampa's park favors pitchers but Estrada gaves up 5 homers over 11 innings pitched here in 2017. He's just not worth trusting. 8 seems half a run too low and then top it off with +110 and I'll take a shot.
Lean Nats -175. Seems a tick low but don't feel like messing with a huge favorite.
Only have capped 4 games, going to mow the lawn and finish the card.
Bauers slider is really a big deal. Now hes gut something between his curve and fastball that he can throw in the zone. Called strike three on Romine.
I don't trust Saurez too much. His WHIP in the minors indicates that he's pitching above his level right now. The Braves are the best team in baseball against lefties and they are also hitting for plenty of power which is good against Suarez who gives up a lot of HRs. Soroka projects to be the better Major Leaguer. There is some worry here as he is super young and probably moved up a level too high but he has also dominated at every level of the minor leagues. The guy has ace potential, or at least very good MLB pitcher potential. Both teams hitting pretty well, neither has a bullpen that it particularly trustworthy. Just think the home team with the better pitcher should be favored by more than -136 with everything else about equal.
Brewers -132
Brewers lines have been real low lately compared to what I'm making the ML at. Not sure what is up with that. Anyway, Pittsburgh offense is starting to trend down and Chase Anderson is a good pitcher who dominated them 3 times last year. I doubt Pittsburgh gets much done offensively. Milwaukee's offense is starting to hit a bit finally but it's tough to tell where they are at since they haven't faced real good pitching during their "revival". Milwaukee was an offense I expected to get going before too long as they had all those injuries earlier in the year and I, somewhat cautiously, think they are starting to hit. The Brewers have the better pen, the better starter, are at home, and I think they have the hotter offense. Why is this line so low? Kuhl has potential but he's had potential for years and just can't see to get it together at the top level. Brewers win 5-2. Lean under as well but decided to lay off. Pirates' pen has been very impressive after that rough start but Kuhl doesn't go long in games which could cause the pen to break down again.
Tigers/Royals u9 -120
Would load up on 1st 5 here if it was offered but no one has it up yet. It's the better bet, but I felt both starters are capable of going deep enough into the game that maybe these 2 trash bullpens won't be able to ruin it. Detroit isn't hitting that well and is without Miggy Cabrera. Junis has dominated them twice already this year. Junis is a future/maybe current ace, Boyd is a future/maybe current ace. These starters are going to be very good. Boyd is a stud lefty who shut down the Royals once this season. He is finally realizing his potential after pitching far below it the past couple of years. KC hits lefties well enough but they've done most of their damage against bad lefties and have had trouble hitting the better ones. Like I said, these are 2 of the least trustworthy bullpens in baseball but this seems like a game where both starters can go deep. Guessing the Royals are up 2-1 after 7 innings and then we'll just hope for the best.
More to come.
Lean White Sox but I want to see how Kyle Gibson does. I'm coming around to the fact that he might potentially not be as awful as I had originally thought. 2 good games in a row and finished well in the 2H last year. Is he figuring it out after 2 bad seasons? This is a good one for me to watch, as opposed to bet.
Seems like the A's might be favored by too much. Triggs is solid but he's pretty hittable most of the time too. Nothing special, although one day I think he'll be very good. A's have the lesser bullpen. I wouldn't hate taking a shot on the Orioles but this is another wait-and-see game. Cobb is coming off his first decent outing of the year after starting the season way late... was getting rocked left and right. He's essentially going through spring training to start the regular season after not signing a deal until like 10 days before the season started. Anyway, coming off 1st decent start... he still isn't in regular season form with his location but his last game was night and day better than his first 3 starts. Cobb will eventually come around and be a very good pitcher but I'm not sure he's there yet. It may be worth playing the huge dog on the off chance he is, but for now I'll pass.
Dodgers/Padres o8.5 -120
Now that my idiot self is aware the Dodgers and Padres are playing in Mexico I can finally make a line that makes sense. Was wondering why my lines were so far off in this series. Just oblivious and stupid I guess. Anyway, massive difference between Petco and this park. This park is a nice hitter's park with it's smaller dimensions and humidity. Rich Hill is trending downward in his career (normal for a guy pushing 40) and this will be his first start back after letting a broken fingernail heal up. I'm sure the nail caused him issues but Hill was ready to give up some runs this year either way and now there's the chance he'll be rusty after taking off. San Diego isn't anything special with the bats but I think they score a few runs here. Then you have Lauer for the Padres who I went over on and own easily in his last start. Guy will be decent in a few years but he's being rushed to the Majors and simply isn't ready. LAD has some excellent lefty hitters out of the lineup and they've been poor vs. southpaws but one thing they have done is hit the poor lefties. Lauer is a poor lefty. Both bullpens have potential but neither pitching terribly well right now and I doubt either starter lasts very long. This game seems closer to 9.5 to me.
Marlins/Reds o9 -118 (2-unit play, graded as 1-unit for record keeping)
On one hand you have Dan Straily who was hurt most of the year, started super late, got rocked in 3 minor league games against nobodies, and then got rocked in his debut. On the other hand you have Finnegan, a lefty with a constantly high WHIP who is pitching terribly thus far. Oh, did I mention that both guys give up a ton of HRs and this game is played in a park that annually give up a ton of HRs? Did I also mention that these bullpens are probably 2 of the 7 or 8 worst in baseball? This over was an easy decision. There is the possibility that Finnegan has one of those games where he puts a lot of guys on base and gets out of it... it's definitely possible against this light-hitting Marlins squad. That being said, I still think the over hits as these bullpens are bad. Cincy is hitting right-handers extremely well now that their lineup is healthy. I just don't see Straily figuring for another few starts, and Finnegan has proven that his high WHIP and large amount of HR's allowed can get him into trouble. Makes sense to me. Reds win 9-5.
Only game I didn't cap is CHC @ STL with Pham and Yaddy both iffy for the Cards.
Record: 92-93 -.11
Jake, your cheating the record 4-4 yesterday 89-90 going into yesterday overall 93-94 the units are correct. Thank You for sharing lets win the 2 unit today.