I have A's +148 and under 9 as nice plays but think I'm going to pass on both. Why in the world would that total be bet up a run? Two excellent lefties on the mound, one good bullpen and one average bullpen.... both offenses are capable but this is a park that usually produces low-scoring games. I see absolutely 0 reason why this total would be at 9. I had it a decent amount lower than the opener... both pitchers did well against their opponents last season. Something is weird here. I could see Manaea regressing to the mean a bit after the no-hitter but then why would the A's get steamed? Someone out there expects Keuchel to get it seems and I can't figure out why. The A's hit .180 against Keuchel last year... makes no sense.
Dodgers -139
Ryu pitching for LAD, above average pitcher and he's up against a Giants' offense that can't hit lefties. Should do well and has a strong pen behind him. The Dodgers aren't hitting lefties that well so far but they were one of the best in baseball against southpaws last year and have the potential to start hammering them. Holland is a below average pitcher who has a below average bullpen behind him. I do worry a bit about LAD's offense but they have advantages everywhere and the line seems short.
Not sure you care but FWIW I played Mia. last night @ +122 I made them around -107...
GL-
Good luck on the play. I'm still trying to decide if I want to try it or not. I think I'm about 0-8 on the season when I play the Marlins so I'm gunshy. There's enough value to bet it now but I think I'm going to hold out for +120.
Put off capping the ARI @ WAS game due to Michael Taylor being iffy. Rendon already out, great lefty hitter, Taylor iffy, great lefty hitter... facing a lefty. Just don't want to cap it until I know Taylor's status. Waiting to cap the COL @ MIA as well with LeMahieu iffy. Will start posting plays shortly.
So it turns out Erasmo Ramirez isn't as MLB ready after the injury as I figured. Got hit hard today and just read that his fastball is sitting at 89-90 "with minimal life". Not entirely sure why I convinced myself he was ready in retrospect.
Going to wait to cap the LAD @ SF game too. Kemp iffy, I think Seager will play but might as well wait on it to make sure 2 guys aren't out of the lineup.
Also felt there was some value on the Rays as big dogs here but only wanted 1 bet in this game. Chirinos has a ton of potential for the Rays and dominated the Red Sox earlier this year. Boston's offense is cooling off so Chirinos has the potential to do really well, but he also doesn't go deep into games (by design) and the Rays' pen behind him is only average. Price dominated the Rays earlier this year and just about every time he's ever faced them. He has a strong pen behind him and the Rays were one of the worst lefty-hitting teams in baseball last year. Tampa is hitting really well right now but it has been against mostly right-handers. I still don't trust this Rays team to hit southpaws and think Price's recent struggles are nothing to worry about. Total was just a half run too high for my liking. Red Sox win 4-3.
Lean Rangers +160 but going to pass. They got bet right when I was capping and I lost 10 cents. Would have taken a shot before that. Neither starter is worth trusting.
Fulmer struggles with his command but he has legit ace movement on his pitches and I just don't think this light-hitting Royals team will be able to hit him like some of the better offenses have. Oaks is making his MLB debut and is a very sturdy pitcher. 4 good pitches, nothing amazing but he controls everything and mixes it up. Seems like the type of guy that can put in quality innings at the top level. Royals' bullpen is obviously scary here but both starters have potential and neither team is hitting. At 9.5 I'll take a shot. Royals win 4-3.
Diamondbacks/Nats o8 -110 (2-unit play, counted as 1-unit for record keeping purposes)
Joke line. Corbin has been really good this year but he's faced nothing but cold-hitting and weak-hitting teams. Guy is still a solid enough pitcher but the Nats were one of the best teams in the Majors at hitting lefties last year. Rendon is out but Taylor will play and I think the Nats can score some runs here. Hellickson for the Nats hasn't been very good for years and the DBacks have a good amount of power in their lineup. Bullpens are good enough here but the wind is blowing out at 15 MPH and both pitchers are capable of giving up the long ball. 8 for this game is way too low. DBacks win 6-5.
Cleveland has a bullpen edge and the better starter but this line is just too inflated. Mariners are capable offensively, have a solid enough pen, and Leak is a pretty good starter. I only had the Indians at -175, they are at -225. Seems worthy of a shot.
Lean Cards/Pirates u8 but ultimately passed after writing it up. Wind is blowing out and Trevor Williams is probably due for a poor start before too long as he's been pitching well over his skill level. I love this Flaherty kid, going to be an ace before too long. Wanted to take Cards but felt line was properly adjusted.
Orioles -134
This one has been bet up about 15 cents already but I think there is still value here. I trust Cashner more than Liriano, I think the Orioles' offense is better, they are at home, and they have the more reliable bullpen. Beckham being out for the Orioles isn't really that big of a hit against lefties since he doesn't hit them well.
Athletics +190
Oakland is mashing lately and McCullers was rocked by them last year. McCullers is a solid enough pitcher but I'm not convinced he's necessarily the better starter here. Mengden has potential to be pretty darn good and he's pitching well lately while McCullers is hit or miss. Houston is at home and has a decent bullpen edge but that's not reason enough to make them massive favorites.
Lean White Sox +130 but my Skoglund fade may have met it's match. Today Skoglund is paired up against another starter equally unqualified to be in the majors. Heck, stinky Skoglund even seems a tick better. Total was unfortunately properly adjusted here at 10.5.
Not sure how you can trust either starter right now. Gonzales has potential to be a decent pitcher but hasn't been able to translate it to the MLB level. Tomlin has been a mess in almost all of his starts last year. Both teams are hitting for power really well. 8.5 just seems low considering the high likelihood that both starters give up runs.
Lean over in DBacks/Nats but passing. Total is only 7, Robbie Ray is having command issues, and Gio is putting a million guys on base. Would probably be something I'd try normally but Rendon is out for the Nats and he mashes lefties so decided to lay off.
Reds +178
I'm a huge Berrios fan and think he'll pitch well here but the line is pretty inflated. Mahle has ace potential himself and the Twins are without Sano and Buxton which makes for a weaker lineup. Reds' offense much stronger with Suarez/Schebler back in there. Who knows what happens with the bullpens... Cincy's is awful and Minnesota's isn't too far behind... but this seems like a game where both starters can potentially be fairly even. I'll take a shot on it.
Athletics/Astros u8.5 -110
A's hitting has cooled off a little bit and they did most of their damage during the hot stretch against lefties. Cole is one of the best right-handers in the game and has a very nice bullpen behind him. Won't be easy for the A's to score runs. Cahill is tough to predict but he's looked strong in both of his starts this year and the control issues he dealt with in spring have disappeared. Houston has a nice offense but it's easy to forget that Cahill, when healthy, is an above average starter. I think he's healthy right now. Astros win 5-1 and we'll just have to hope the Oakland pen doesn't do anything stupid.
Going to pass on Royals -115 but FWIW my lines weren't even close. What scared me off is that #1 my lines were sooo far off, and #2 the line has moved 20 cents toward the White Sox. Seems someone out there with a lot of influence doesn't think Kennedy is fully healthy with the foot injury. That's what I'm thinking anyway. Kennedy was excellent against CHW earlier this year and I don't see any reason he can't do it again other than the fact that he might not be fully healthy. I suppose it's also possible Santiago is back to his 2015 form after dealing with injuries last year. Santiago had a good spring too but it's tough for me to think he can go more than a few innings with his shaky command. Oh well, good game to lay off.
Brewers +137
Seems like a solid dog. Davies has started to pitch well, pitched well earlier this year against the Cubs, and Chicago really isn't hitting much lately. Milwaukee's offense has been poor during this CHC series as well but Chatwood is dealing with all sorts of command issues right now. I think Chatwood will eventually be a very good pitcher for the Cubbies but he's just not locating well enough yet. The guy always has control issues but it seems worse than normal. Both pens are good, slight edge to Milwaukee. This just seems pretty close to a tossup.
Lean Nats -115, just seems low at home. I'm a huge Taillon fan but Roark, if healthy, has proven he's capable of throwing dominant innings... Taillon has also had issues his last 2 starts. -115 just seems short for the home team, but then again I'm not sure where Roark is really even at so going to pass.
Brewers/Reds o9.5 -105
This was a really borderline play but I decided to roll the dice. Chacin for Milwaukee isn't pitching very well and isn't going to throw dominant innings often. Cincinnati's lineup is finally healthy and they are capable of hitting for big power, especially at home. Chacin had a rough go of it last year in Cincinnati. Then you have Finnegan pitching for the Reds who is up there with Skoglund for me as guys I just don't think belong in the Majors right now. Finnegan is coming off shoulder surgery, had a triceps injury cut his spring short, and he's just been getting beat up since then. He hasn't been able to get outs in the minors the last few years and pitched horribly in the minors this year before being called up. Milwaukee's offense has been pretty stinky their last few games but they should be capable of hitting a guy like Finnegan even with poor form. Thames out for the Brewers doesn't hurt here since Thames can't hit lefties anyway. Then you have the Reds' bullpen which is always capable of giving up a million runs... Seems like this one has a solid chance. Let's say Brewers win 6-5. If the Brew Crew wasn't coming off a horrid offensive series I'd play them on the ML but don't want to have double exposure counting on their offense here.
Astros -149
Seems like a good idea to fade Sonny Gray right now because he's lost all control of his pitches. Houston offense has heated up a bit and their power numbers are very nice lately. Houston also has enough patient batters to test Gray's control and high walk rate. Morton for the Astros is a very nice pitcher. Yankees hitting well but I think Morton puts in quality innings at home. Both pens are good. Astros win 6-3.
Padres/Giants o7.5 -120
Lauer for San Diego is eventually going to be good but I just don't think he's ready. The guy has been average at best in lower levels of the minors... he has like 70 innings above single A and hasn't impressed. I think the guy has a ton of talent and will eventually become a good MLB pitcher but right now he's only 22 and the Padres are just rushing him through the levels too fast. Got rocked in his opener but FWIW it was at Coors so maybe not quite as bad as that start indicates but he's just unlikely to be ready to get outs in the Majors. Then you have Samardzija and who knows with him. Was coming off the injury and the shortened spring but dominated in the opener before getting crushed by the Nats last start. I'm not sure how he looks but even if he does well I have to think this bet has a chance with the total so low and at least one starter likely to give up runs.
Waiting until tomorrow to cap COL@ CHC (LeMahieu status), KC @ BOS (Mookie status), PHI @ MIA (Bour status), TB @ DET (Miggy status), and TOR @ MIN (Sano status). Capped LAD @ ARI but it's currently off the board (I think the books are waiting to make sure Bellinger plays after his benching).
Comments
Not sure you care but FWIW I played Mia. last night @ +122 I made them around -107...
GL-
Dodgers -139
Ryu pitching for LAD, above average pitcher and he's up against a Giants' offense that can't hit lefties. Should do well and has a strong pen behind him. The Dodgers aren't hitting lefties that well so far but they were one of the best in baseball against southpaws last year and have the potential to start hammering them. Holland is a below average pitcher who has a below average bullpen behind him. I do worry a bit about LAD's offense but they have advantages everywhere and the line seems short.
Good luck on the play. I'm still trying to decide if I want to try it or not. I think I'm about 0-8 on the season when I play the Marlins so I'm gunshy. There's enough value to bet it now but I think I'm going to hold out for +120.
Orioles/Tigers o9.5 -110
Explained why above. Line fell 15 cents, gotta play it.
Rays/Red Sox u8.5 +105
Also felt there was some value on the Rays as big dogs here but only wanted 1 bet in this game. Chirinos has a ton of potential for the Rays and dominated the Red Sox earlier this year. Boston's offense is cooling off so Chirinos has the potential to do really well, but he also doesn't go deep into games (by design) and the Rays' pen behind him is only average. Price dominated the Rays earlier this year and just about every time he's ever faced them. He has a strong pen behind him and the Rays were one of the worst lefty-hitting teams in baseball last year. Tampa is hitting really well right now but it has been against mostly right-handers. I still don't trust this Rays team to hit southpaws and think Price's recent struggles are nothing to worry about. Total was just a half run too high for my liking. Red Sox win 4-3.
Lean Rangers +160 but going to pass. They got bet right when I was capping and I lost 10 cents. Would have taken a shot before that. Neither starter is worth trusting.
Bullpen blew it.
Fulmer struggles with his command but he has legit ace movement on his pitches and I just don't think this light-hitting Royals team will be able to hit him like some of the better offenses have. Oaks is making his MLB debut and is a very sturdy pitcher. 4 good pitches, nothing amazing but he controls everything and mixes it up. Seems like the type of guy that can put in quality innings at the top level. Royals' bullpen is obviously scary here but both starters have potential and neither team is hitting. At 9.5 I'll take a shot. Royals win 4-3.
Michael Taylor is playing for the Nats.
Sano out for Twins with hammy injury.
Still waiting on Kemp.
More plays coming shortly.
Joke line. Corbin has been really good this year but he's faced nothing but cold-hitting and weak-hitting teams. Guy is still a solid enough pitcher but the Nats were one of the best teams in the Majors at hitting lefties last year. Rendon is out but Taylor will play and I think the Nats can score some runs here. Hellickson for the Nats hasn't been very good for years and the DBacks have a good amount of power in their lineup. Bullpens are good enough here but the wind is blowing out at 15 MPH and both pitchers are capable of giving up the long ball. 8 for this game is way too low. DBacks win 6-5.
Cleveland has a bullpen edge and the better starter but this line is just too inflated. Mariners are capable offensively, have a solid enough pen, and Leak is a pretty good starter. I only had the Indians at -175, they are at -225. Seems worthy of a shot.
Lean Cards/Pirates u8 but ultimately passed after writing it up. Wind is blowing out and Trevor Williams is probably due for a poor start before too long as he's been pitching well over his skill level. I love this Flaherty kid, going to be an ace before too long. Wanted to take Cards but felt line was properly adjusted.
Orioles -134
This one has been bet up about 15 cents already but I think there is still value here. I trust Cashner more than Liriano, I think the Orioles' offense is better, they are at home, and they have the more reliable bullpen. Beckham being out for the Orioles isn't really that big of a hit against lefties since he doesn't hit them well.
Athletics +190
Oakland is mashing lately and McCullers was rocked by them last year. McCullers is a solid enough pitcher but I'm not convinced he's necessarily the better starter here. Mengden has potential to be pretty darn good and he's pitching well lately while McCullers is hit or miss. Houston is at home and has a decent bullpen edge but that's not reason enough to make them massive favorites.
Mariners/Indians o8.5 -110
Not sure how you can trust either starter right now. Gonzales has potential to be a decent pitcher but hasn't been able to translate it to the MLB level. Tomlin has been a mess in almost all of his starts last year. Both teams are hitting for power really well. 8.5 just seems low considering the high likelihood that both starters give up runs.
More to come.
Reds +178
I'm a huge Berrios fan and think he'll pitch well here but the line is pretty inflated. Mahle has ace potential himself and the Twins are without Sano and Buxton which makes for a weaker lineup. Reds' offense much stronger with Suarez/Schebler back in there. Who knows what happens with the bullpens... Cincy's is awful and Minnesota's isn't too far behind... but this seems like a game where both starters can potentially be fairly even. I'll take a shot on it.
Athletics/Astros u8.5 -110
A's hitting has cooled off a little bit and they did most of their damage during the hot stretch against lefties. Cole is one of the best right-handers in the game and has a very nice bullpen behind him. Won't be easy for the A's to score runs. Cahill is tough to predict but he's looked strong in both of his starts this year and the control issues he dealt with in spring have disappeared. Houston has a nice offense but it's easy to forget that Cahill, when healthy, is an above average starter. I think he's healthy right now. Astros win 5-1 and we'll just have to hope the Oakland pen doesn't do anything stupid.
Going to pass on Royals -115 but FWIW my lines weren't even close. What scared me off is that #1 my lines were sooo far off, and #2 the line has moved 20 cents toward the White Sox. Seems someone out there with a lot of influence doesn't think Kennedy is fully healthy with the foot injury. That's what I'm thinking anyway. Kennedy was excellent against CHW earlier this year and I don't see any reason he can't do it again other than the fact that he might not be fully healthy. I suppose it's also possible Santiago is back to his 2015 form after dealing with injuries last year. Santiago had a good spring too but it's tough for me to think he can go more than a few innings with his shaky command. Oh well, good game to lay off.
Brewers +137
Seems like a solid dog. Davies has started to pitch well, pitched well earlier this year against the Cubs, and Chicago really isn't hitting much lately. Milwaukee's offense has been poor during this CHC series as well but Chatwood is dealing with all sorts of command issues right now. I think Chatwood will eventually be a very good pitcher for the Cubbies but he's just not locating well enough yet. The guy always has control issues but it seems worse than normal. Both pens are good, slight edge to Milwaukee. This just seems pretty close to a tossup.
Brewers/Reds o9.5 -105
This was a really borderline play but I decided to roll the dice. Chacin for Milwaukee isn't pitching very well and isn't going to throw dominant innings often. Cincinnati's lineup is finally healthy and they are capable of hitting for big power, especially at home. Chacin had a rough go of it last year in Cincinnati. Then you have Finnegan pitching for the Reds who is up there with Skoglund for me as guys I just don't think belong in the Majors right now. Finnegan is coming off shoulder surgery, had a triceps injury cut his spring short, and he's just been getting beat up since then. He hasn't been able to get outs in the minors the last few years and pitched horribly in the minors this year before being called up. Milwaukee's offense has been pretty stinky their last few games but they should be capable of hitting a guy like Finnegan even with poor form. Thames out for the Brewers doesn't hurt here since Thames can't hit lefties anyway. Then you have the Reds' bullpen which is always capable of giving up a million runs... Seems like this one has a solid chance. Let's say Brewers win 6-5. If the Brew Crew wasn't coming off a horrid offensive series I'd play them on the ML but don't want to have double exposure counting on their offense here.
Astros -149
Seems like a good idea to fade Sonny Gray right now because he's lost all control of his pitches. Houston offense has heated up a bit and their power numbers are very nice lately. Houston also has enough patient batters to test Gray's control and high walk rate. Morton for the Astros is a very nice pitcher. Yankees hitting well but I think Morton puts in quality innings at home. Both pens are good. Astros win 6-3.
Padres/Giants o7.5 -120
Lauer for San Diego is eventually going to be good but I just don't think he's ready. The guy has been average at best in lower levels of the minors... he has like 70 innings above single A and hasn't impressed. I think the guy has a ton of talent and will eventually become a good MLB pitcher but right now he's only 22 and the Padres are just rushing him through the levels too fast. Got rocked in his opener but FWIW it was at Coors so maybe not quite as bad as that start indicates but he's just unlikely to be ready to get outs in the Majors. Then you have Samardzija and who knows with him. Was coming off the injury and the shortened spring but dominated in the opener before getting crushed by the Nats last start. I'm not sure how he looks but even if he does well I have to think this bet has a chance with the total so low and at least one starter likely to give up runs.
Waiting until tomorrow to cap COL@ CHC (LeMahieu status), KC @ BOS (Mookie status), PHI @ MIA (Bour status), TB @ DET (Miggy status), and TOR @ MIN (Sano status). Capped LAD @ ARI but it's currently off the board (I think the books are waiting to make sure Bellinger plays after his benching).