Candelario scratched from Tigers' lineup, another excellent hitter vs. lefties. This Tigers bet has seen possibly the 2 best lefty hitters in the lineup get hurt since i made it. Not great. I'd definitely pass if I had that info beforehand.
Don't see much reason for the line being what it is here. Teheran has these seasons where he's a very strong pitcher and so far he looks to be in that form. The Cubs are hitting well and will get some runs but Teheran is solid. Atlanta is one of the best lefty-hitting teams in the league and Quintana has only been halfway sharp this season against poor lefty-hitting teams. Atlanta already rocked him once this season... don't see why they can't do it again. Cubs have the moderate pen advantage but not enough to make this line make sense.
Lean DBacks -158. I had it higher. Just can't see Milwaukee hitting lefties but Corbin is probably due for a stinker at some point also. Just a lean.
Lean Rockies/Padres u7.5 -125 but going to wait a bit and see if I can't get a better line. These pitchers have dominated the opponents twice this season already. The Padres are hopeless against lefties so Anderson should do well. Rockies aren't hitting particularly well and Lucchesi is a future ace but the one worry I have is that they figure him out here. Colorado is a good team against lefties and these youngsters tend to have bad starts. I still want to play it but not particularly fond about laying -125 so will wait and see if I can't get a better line.
Reds +130
Reds/Giants o8 -115
Neither pitcher here is anything special but Romano is the better of the 2 and the Reds' offense has been better. Both starters should give up runs and both bullpens are hittable so I'm banking on getting some runs late for the over. This isn't a great place for hitters and the wind blowing out at 15 MPH doesn't mean much here as the stadium blocks out wind well, but at the end of the day both starters and both bullpens are capable of giving up runs and 8 is a pretty low total here. Reds win 5-4.
Still waiting on starting pitchers in CLE @ DET, OAK @ BOS, and HOU @ LAA.
Lean u9 +105 in A's/Red Sox today. Manaea no hit the Sox earlier this year but Boston's lineup is a little better vs. lefties now that they got some guys back. Still a below average team vs. lefties though. Porcello should do well. Guessing Boston wins 5-3 but didn't feel like trying it.
Thought about taking the Marlins on the ML as well but ultimately decided I only wanted to risk one unit here. Chen for the Marlins is a good pitcher but I don't know where he's at after his spring was cut short with an injury. He looked great in his first start, got rocked early in his 2nd start but then pitched excellent after the bad start, and then got rocked in his last start. He's faced 3 top 10 teams at hitting lefties so I think he's probably better than what we've seen statistically. The Dodgers can't touch lefties this year and aren't really hitting anyone. Chen's lone good start came at home in this pitcher-friendly park and I don't think LAD's power will translate well. Wood is a stud and should dominate this weak-hitting Marlins lineup with little trouble but Chen seems like he has a decent chance to do the same to LAD. Ultimately the risk remains that Chen could get hit hard if he's not regular season ready so I reduced the risk to just 1 bet.
Blue Jays +164
Garcia isn't that great of a pitcher but he's better than his stats indicate and the Mets are the worst lefty-hitting team in baseball. Garcia hasn't had a single start this year in a pitcher's park before this one and I feel his stats are inflated a bit as a result. NYM isn't doing much hitting right now and getting Jay Bruce back for this one won't help vs. lefties. Frazier has some power vs. lefties and he's out. Basically just don't trust the Mets to score much here. Syndergaard is a stud and should put in quality innings like always but I'm not convinced he'll leave with a lead and the Mets' bullpen is a bit of a mess right now. Jays have an above average bullpen. Seems like this one has a nice shot. Figured I'd be on the under as well but the line seems properly adjusted.
Angels +166
Was originally thinking I'd pass but line keeps rising so I'll bite. Cole is obviously a stud but the Angels' offense is hitting pretty well right now. They should be able to get a few runs here and that might be enough. Barria is talented but super young, seems like the type to be dominant one day and get rocked the next. Only has 2 nice pitches but he controls them really well, has a 3rd pitch but nothing special. He's been tough for teams to hit their first try and I'm hoping that continues here. Houston's offense is obviously nice but they still don't seem like they are in great form. Angels' bullpen throwing better lately as well. This one won't be easy but I can't pass up the line value and we'll just hope that Barria has one of his good days.
Waiting to cap CLE @ DET (Detroit injuries) and TB @ KC (need a TB pitcher named)
Don't see much reason for the line being what it is here. Teheran has these seasons where he's a very strong pitcher and so far he looks to be in that form. The Cubs are hitting well and will get some runs but Teheran is solid. Atlanta is one of the best lefty-hitting teams in the league and Quintana has only been halfway sharp this season against poor lefty-hitting teams. Atlanta already rocked him once this season... don't see why they can't do it again. Cubs have the moderate pen advantage but not enough to make this line make sense.
Lean DBacks -158. I had it higher. Just can't see Milwaukee hitting lefties but Corbin is probably due for a stinker at some point also. Just a lean.
Lean Rockies/Padres u7.5 -125 but going to wait a bit and see if I can't get a better line. These pitchers have dominated the opponents twice this season already. The Padres are hopeless against lefties so Anderson should do well. Rockies aren't hitting particularly well and Lucchesi is a future ace but the one worry I have is that they figure him out here. Colorado is a good team against lefties and these youngsters tend to have bad starts. I still want to play it but not particularly fond about laying -125 so will wait and see if I can't get a better line.
Reds +130
Reds/Giants o8 -115
Neither pitcher here is anything special but Romano is the better of the 2 and the Reds' offense has been better. Both starters should give up runs and both bullpens are hittable so I'm banking on getting some runs late for the over. This isn't a great place for hitters and the wind blowing out at 15 MPH doesn't mean much here as the stadium blocks out wind well, but at the end of the day both starters and both bullpens are capable of giving up runs and 8 is a pretty low total here. Reds win 5-4.
Still waiting on starting pitchers in CLE @ DET, OAK @ BOS, and HOU @ LAA.
Thanks Jake T very good job on the Atlanta and
over in the Cincinnati San Francisco
I hit to very big parlays thanks to you.
My guy had Atlanta + 138 only
Atlanta + 138 & over 8.5 Atlanta the wind shifted at Wrigley was blowing out.
The other big parlay was Atlanta + 138 and you're over 8 Reds / San Francisco game
Very nice job keep up the good work thanks again.
:clapup:
Scherzer is obviously a stud but the Yankees' offense is hitting pretty well and is just a super dangerous lineup. Seems like they can get a couple runs off Scherzer along the way. CC Sabathia is pitching really well this year and he seems finally somewhat healthy. Washington was good against lefties but due to injuries they have been poor this year. Zimmerman being out is a big ding against southpaws and Wieters hits lefties well enough (he's out too). Just seems like both starters can do well here, the Yankees' offense is in a better groove, and the Yankees have the pen advantage. Worthy dog.
Marlins +155
Buehler is solid but he's also been rushed to the Majors and these guys seem to have random starts where they just completely lose it. This is the 2nd time Miami has seen him which helps. I think he'll have a nice start but Miami might be able to get a run or 2 across and that might be all we need. The Dodgers can't hit lefties this season and the entire offense is in a major slump. Smith isn't anything special but he should have plenty of success here. Pitcher's park takes away some of that LAD power. Miami's pen is a bit of a worry but LAD's hasn't been much better. I only had the Dodgers as a small favorite here.
Astros/Angels u7 +105
Verlander is a stud and already dominated the Angels once this season. LAA hitting a bit more lately but just don't think LAA has it in them to do much damage here. Houston's offense has been pretty shaky lately and Richards is capable of dominant innings. Houston couldn't hit him at all in 2 tries last season. The worry with Richards is that he doesn't go that deep in games but the Angels' bullpen has been trending upward lately so that makes me feel better about it. Astros win 3-2.
Waiting on pitchers in PHI @ BAl, CHW @ PIT, and TEX @ SEA, waiting on injury news in CLE @ DET (Castellanos), MIL @ ARI (Pollock), and CIN @ SF (Votto).
Leans: DBacks +100, A's/Red Sox u8.5, White Sox/Pirates o8.5
Indians/Tigers o9 +100
Bauer finally had a bad start and it seemed like only a matter of time before teams started to figure out what he's doing differently this season. Good pitcher but nothing special IMO. Detroit had killed him for years before a start earlier this season and even then the Tigers, on a cold hitting streak, put on 9 guys over 7 innings. Detroit has been hitting well lately despite all the injuries and should do even better this time around IMO. Cleveland's bullpen is also struggling mightily lately... they'll eventually turn it around but it helps the over for now. The main reason I like this bet is because you can't trust Carpenter here. He has a 5+ ERA in the Minors this season, was below average the year before and awful the season before that. He's never proven to be anything more than below average at any level in the minors and he had a 7.36 ERA when he tried his hand over a few innings in the Majors last year. Cleveland should murder this guy. This park caters to hitters pretty nicely and Detroit's pen, albeit improved, is still average or below average at best. Indians win 7-4.
Velasquez isn't anything special but the Cards can't hit anyone right now so he should do well. He's struggled with walks and the long ball but this is a good park for pitcher's and that should help limit the damage. Wind should be blowing in around 10 MPH to help with his long ball issues as well. The Cardinals' offense isn't showing any plate discipline lately either with high strikeouts and lower walk rate so I think he can do well. Weaver has all the talent in the world but is also young and prone to losing his command too often. Philadelphia's offense is very good and I think their patient approach will serve them well here. Bullpens are about even. I only had the Cards favored at about -120.
Waiting to cap SD @ PIT (PIT sat half their lineup today, some due to injury), DET @ SEA (Cruz iffy), TB @ LAA (Gomez/Duffy iffy), and OAK @ TOR (A's need to name a pitcher)
Comments
Nightmare cold streak continues. Need a big Sunday. Sorry for the garbage plays.
Braves +153
Don't see much reason for the line being what it is here. Teheran has these seasons where he's a very strong pitcher and so far he looks to be in that form. The Cubs are hitting well and will get some runs but Teheran is solid. Atlanta is one of the best lefty-hitting teams in the league and Quintana has only been halfway sharp this season against poor lefty-hitting teams. Atlanta already rocked him once this season... don't see why they can't do it again. Cubs have the moderate pen advantage but not enough to make this line make sense.
Lean DBacks -158. I had it higher. Just can't see Milwaukee hitting lefties but Corbin is probably due for a stinker at some point also. Just a lean.
Lean Rockies/Padres u7.5 -125 but going to wait a bit and see if I can't get a better line. These pitchers have dominated the opponents twice this season already. The Padres are hopeless against lefties so Anderson should do well. Rockies aren't hitting particularly well and Lucchesi is a future ace but the one worry I have is that they figure him out here. Colorado is a good team against lefties and these youngsters tend to have bad starts. I still want to play it but not particularly fond about laying -125 so will wait and see if I can't get a better line.
Reds +130
Reds/Giants o8 -115
Neither pitcher here is anything special but Romano is the better of the 2 and the Reds' offense has been better. Both starters should give up runs and both bullpens are hittable so I'm banking on getting some runs late for the over. This isn't a great place for hitters and the wind blowing out at 15 MPH doesn't mean much here as the stadium blocks out wind well, but at the end of the day both starters and both bullpens are capable of giving up runs and 8 is a pretty low total here. Reds win 5-4.
Still waiting on starting pitchers in CLE @ DET, OAK @ BOS, and HOU @ LAA.
Cano has a fractured fifth metacarpal bone on right hand.
Keep losing totals by half a run. Onward and upward.
Good line! I bet it at the worst possible time. Doesn't look like 8.5 lasted too long.
Leans: A's/Red Sox u9.5, Marlins +158, Jays/Mets u7, Twins -123, DBacks -155, Astros/Angels u7.5, Mariners -138, Reds +112, Reds/Giants o8
Dodgers/Marlins u8 -115
Thought about taking the Marlins on the ML as well but ultimately decided I only wanted to risk one unit here. Chen for the Marlins is a good pitcher but I don't know where he's at after his spring was cut short with an injury. He looked great in his first start, got rocked early in his 2nd start but then pitched excellent after the bad start, and then got rocked in his last start. He's faced 3 top 10 teams at hitting lefties so I think he's probably better than what we've seen statistically. The Dodgers can't touch lefties this year and aren't really hitting anyone. Chen's lone good start came at home in this pitcher-friendly park and I don't think LAD's power will translate well. Wood is a stud and should dominate this weak-hitting Marlins lineup with little trouble but Chen seems like he has a decent chance to do the same to LAD. Ultimately the risk remains that Chen could get hit hard if he's not regular season ready so I reduced the risk to just 1 bet.
Blue Jays +164
Garcia isn't that great of a pitcher but he's better than his stats indicate and the Mets are the worst lefty-hitting team in baseball. Garcia hasn't had a single start this year in a pitcher's park before this one and I feel his stats are inflated a bit as a result. NYM isn't doing much hitting right now and getting Jay Bruce back for this one won't help vs. lefties. Frazier has some power vs. lefties and he's out. Basically just don't trust the Mets to score much here. Syndergaard is a stud and should put in quality innings like always but I'm not convinced he'll leave with a lead and the Mets' bullpen is a bit of a mess right now. Jays have an above average bullpen. Seems like this one has a nice shot. Figured I'd be on the under as well but the line seems properly adjusted.
Angels +166
Was originally thinking I'd pass but line keeps rising so I'll bite. Cole is obviously a stud but the Angels' offense is hitting pretty well right now. They should be able to get a few runs here and that might be enough. Barria is talented but super young, seems like the type to be dominant one day and get rocked the next. Only has 2 nice pitches but he controls them really well, has a 3rd pitch but nothing special. He's been tough for teams to hit their first try and I'm hoping that continues here. Houston's offense is obviously nice but they still don't seem like they are in great form. Angels' bullpen throwing better lately as well. This one won't be easy but I can't pass up the line value and we'll just hope that Barria has one of his good days.
Waiting to cap CLE @ DET (Detroit injuries) and TB @ KC (need a TB pitcher named)
Step in the right direction.
over in the Cincinnati San Francisco
I hit to very big parlays thanks to you.
My guy had Atlanta + 138 only
Atlanta + 138 & over 8.5 Atlanta the wind shifted at Wrigley was blowing out.
The other big parlay was Atlanta + 138 and you're over 8 Reds / San Francisco game
Very nice job keep up the good work thanks again.
:clapup:
Leans: Cards/Twins u9.5, Jays/Mets o8, Rays -105, Cubs -105
Yankees +165
Scherzer is obviously a stud but the Yankees' offense is hitting pretty well and is just a super dangerous lineup. Seems like they can get a couple runs off Scherzer along the way. CC Sabathia is pitching really well this year and he seems finally somewhat healthy. Washington was good against lefties but due to injuries they have been poor this year. Zimmerman being out is a big ding against southpaws and Wieters hits lefties well enough (he's out too). Just seems like both starters can do well here, the Yankees' offense is in a better groove, and the Yankees have the pen advantage. Worthy dog.
Marlins +155
Buehler is solid but he's also been rushed to the Majors and these guys seem to have random starts where they just completely lose it. This is the 2nd time Miami has seen him which helps. I think he'll have a nice start but Miami might be able to get a run or 2 across and that might be all we need. The Dodgers can't hit lefties this season and the entire offense is in a major slump. Smith isn't anything special but he should have plenty of success here. Pitcher's park takes away some of that LAD power. Miami's pen is a bit of a worry but LAD's hasn't been much better. I only had the Dodgers as a small favorite here.
Astros/Angels u7 +105
Verlander is a stud and already dominated the Angels once this season. LAA hitting a bit more lately but just don't think LAA has it in them to do much damage here. Houston's offense has been pretty shaky lately and Richards is capable of dominant innings. Houston couldn't hit him at all in 2 tries last season. The worry with Richards is that he doesn't go that deep in games but the Angels' bullpen has been trending upward lately so that makes me feel better about it. Astros win 3-2.
Waiting on pitchers in PHI @ BAl, CHW @ PIT, and TEX @ SEA, waiting on injury news in CLE @ DET (Castellanos), MIL @ ARI (Pollock), and CIN @ SF (Votto).
Castellanos back for Tigers.
Record: 117-128 -11.16
Leans: DBacks +100, A's/Red Sox u8.5, White Sox/Pirates o8.5
Indians/Tigers o9 +100
Bauer finally had a bad start and it seemed like only a matter of time before teams started to figure out what he's doing differently this season. Good pitcher but nothing special IMO. Detroit had killed him for years before a start earlier this season and even then the Tigers, on a cold hitting streak, put on 9 guys over 7 innings. Detroit has been hitting well lately despite all the injuries and should do even better this time around IMO. Cleveland's bullpen is also struggling mightily lately... they'll eventually turn it around but it helps the over for now. The main reason I like this bet is because you can't trust Carpenter here. He has a 5+ ERA in the Minors this season, was below average the year before and awful the season before that. He's never proven to be anything more than below average at any level in the minors and he had a 7.36 ERA when he tried his hand over a few innings in the Majors last year. Cleveland should murder this guy. This park caters to hitters pretty nicely and Detroit's pen, albeit improved, is still average or below average at best. Indians win 7-4.
Leans: Marlins +146, Braves +120, Rangers/White Sox u9
Phillies +130
Velasquez isn't anything special but the Cards can't hit anyone right now so he should do well. He's struggled with walks and the long ball but this is a good park for pitcher's and that should help limit the damage. Wind should be blowing in around 10 MPH to help with his long ball issues as well. The Cardinals' offense isn't showing any plate discipline lately either with high strikeouts and lower walk rate so I think he can do well. Weaver has all the talent in the world but is also young and prone to losing his command too often. Philadelphia's offense is very good and I think their patient approach will serve them well here. Bullpens are about even. I only had the Cards favored at about -120.
Waiting to cap SD @ PIT (PIT sat half their lineup today, some due to injury), DET @ SEA (Cruz iffy), TB @ LAA (Gomez/Duffy iffy), and OAK @ TOR (A's need to name a pitcher)