Romano is struggling with his control and even though Arizona isn't doing much hitting lately I have to imagine they get some runs off of him. Even when he's controlling his stuff he doesn't go deep in the game so you should expect 4 innings or so of Arizona getting to hit against this below average bullpen. Corbin is having big velocity issues lately and seems like he might not be healthy. He's been getting away with it while facing some of the absolute worst lefty-hitting teams in baseball but the Reds are capable of getting some runs off of him here. They're about average vs. lefties which is much more of a challenge than the other teams Corbin has faced of late. The humidor is definitely keeping runs down in Arizona but I think both starters give some up and 8 is so low that I'll take a shot. 5-4 DBacks.
UPDATE: Right after placing this bet I learned the Reds are resting Scooter. Really hot bat lately but only average against lefties. Would prefer he be in the lineup but not a death knell.
Astros +174
This line was way higher than I figured. Severino is obviously filthy and he dominated the Astros in a complete game earlier this year but that was also when Houston was in a hitting slump. Their recent form has been much better and Houston hit Severino pretty hard in 3 of 4 starts last year. The Yankees hit lefties really well but are in a bit of an offensive slump lately. Keuchel has a good history of pitching well in Yankee Stadium and did well against NYY earlier this year when they were hitting better. Both bullpens are elite. Have to try it.
Leans: Cubs/Pirates u8, Twins -140, A's -137, Rays/A's o7.5 (not touching that TB/OAK game due to weird line movement),
Nats/Orioles u8.5 -110
Scherzer is a stud and the Orioles aren't hitting much lately. Nats' pen is only average but Max might just go the full 9 here. Baltimore getting shut out wouldn't surprise me much. Hess for Baltimore isn't anything special but he's decent enough and Washington's bats aren't that great right now due to the injuries. The Nats have been beating up on bullpens lately but don't seem to be in top form and have had middling outings against starters. 8.5 just seems really high with Scherzer on the mound against a team that isn't hitting. Nats win 5-1.
Actually had the Twins favored but going to pass for now. This Bieber kid is interesting. Some of the best control to get the call up in years, has 4 pitches that are average or above average, dominating the minors... interested to see how it translates. He doesn't have any great pitches but has 4 solid ones that he controls exceptionally. Not your average prospect so taking a wait-and-see approach.
Parlay: Risking 1 unit to win 2.18 Angels -1.5 -150
Angels/Tigers o9.5 -110
So both of these bets are really iffy from a line value perspective but I'm going off the standard procedure as I just don't see any other way this game plays out. Heaney is a good lefty but pitching in a tough park and against a team that hits lefties well. Detroit is hitting well overall lately and could have Miggy back here. Heaney has proven capable of pitching in tough parks this year but I still think he'll give up maybe 3 runs over 6 innings or so. Angels' pen has been better recently but still tough to trust so we might get a late Detroit run or 2. The main reason why I like both bets is that Carpenter for the Tigers is going to get rocked. He struggles to get outs in the Minors and just won't last long here. The Angels should put up 4 or 5 runs really early and then we'll get a below average Detroit pen stretched out way past what they are capable of. With the deficit I'd expect to see some lesser relievers for both teams. Angels win 8-4. I don't plan on making a habit out of playing lines that I see this minimal of value in but after going over the game a million times I just can't see any other way it plays out. Will roll the dice on the parlay.
Cubs/Mets o8 -107
Quintana has a chance to do well here as the Mets can't hit lefties but I think the Cubs score enough runs to get us here. I get that this park is friendly to pitchers but the Cubs are hitting well lately and Lugo isn't worth trusting. He's going to give up some runs and he's been working in relief so he won't be able to go more than a few innings before handing it off to a poor Mets' bullpen for a long stretch. I just don't see how that goes well for NYM. The Mets don't hit lefties but are actually hitting pretty darn well lately despite all the injuries. Their youngsters might be better than some of the highly paid vets on the DL... 8 just seems way too low. Also Quintana is alternating good and bad starts lately so he might not be in regular season form quite yet. Cubs win 6-3.
Phillies +149
Whoever opened this game up at LAD -215 really messed up. Holy moly that was a bad line. It's been steamed closer to where it should be now but there is still plenty of value left. Both starters should dominate. Neither team hitting up to their standards. Bullpens are similar. Did the bookies forget that Nola has turned into a verifiable ace? Not sure what's going on but this is a coin flip and home field isn't worth 60 cents.
Marlins +125
Chen is starting to pitch like he's capable of and the Padres can't hit lefties. Chen gets in trouble with the long ball at times but Petco is a tough place to hit HRs and the Padres don't hit many anyway. The Miami bullpen is obviously sketchy as can be but this seems like a game that Chen can go 7+ innings in to help alleviate that concern a bit. Lyles for the Padres just isn't very good. Pitching in Petco against this light-hitting Marlins team gives him a chance to do well but he's nowhere near the pitcher that Chen is. This game is a coinflip so take the +125 and hope the bullpen doesn't implode.
My lines weren't close on that Nats/Braves game so laid off. Lines and movement seem to indicate that Strasburg gives up runs here but I don't see why that would be. I feel he'll dominate this team as he did earlier this year when the Braves were hitting better. Foltynewicz seems to have turned a corner but he's pitching over his head and is, at best, a slightly above average pitcher. I think he should give up some runs, but then again the Nats' offense isn't as good as it was when they were healthy. Ultimately this feels like a 5-2 Nats win but I don't understand the lines and that scared me off. I just don't think the side gets set that low and the total gets set that high unless someone in the know expects Strasburg to have a less than stellar outing...
Cubs/Mets o8.5 -112
Both of these teams are hitting pretty well right now. This is usually a park that caters to pitcher's but the wind is blowing out at around 10 MPH and that might help mitigate that somewhat. Chatwood has been a mess this year and his command is even worse than normal. He is dealing with some sort of issue that he can't quite figure out. I'm not sure if Wheeler is an average pitcher or worse than that but he's the type of guy that almost always gives up some runs. Both of these guys put a million hitters on base. Chatwood seems more likely to get away with that as he has the stronger pen behind him but I also feel that as far as starters go, Wheeler is probably a bit easier to trust currently. If the Mets' pen blows this one late it should just be insurance on the over so I'm okay making both bets. Both starters were knocked around by the opposition last year in a major way. I had NYM at around -115 FWIW. Considered them as a bet but the over just felt stronger so I went with that. There's an off chance that Chatwood finally figures out his problems but not enough to worry me. Let's hope the Mets win 6-5 or so.
Royals +110
Ian Kennedy is a scary guy to have to trust but the A's aren't hitting much of anything lately and Kennedy has been good against the light-hitting teams he's faced this year. Crush Davis is back for Oakland and helps the offense but Semien is out with a newborn baby so that takes away some luster of Crush being back. Oakland's lineup just has been a mess lately and I think Kennedy is good enough to keep them mostly in check. Who knows what to expect of Montas... even tougher to trust than Kennedy IMO. He's a former elite prospect that just never figured out how to command his stuff. He's been below average at best in the minors the past few years (including this season). He had a great debut but it came against the biggest slumping offense in baseball so I don't think he can continue to be good. KC's offense is hitting well. Neither of these pitchers should go deep into the game so these bullpens will play a part... KC's is trash but Oakland's has been really bad as well when they get stretched after poor innings from the starter which I think is very much in play here. This one won't be easy but there's enough here to try the home team at +110.
Reds -110
REALLYYYYY want to go to 2 units on this but holding off for now. Petco Park allows some poor pitchers to do well and I'm wondering if Lockett will hold on to do enough. He's a poor pitcher at the AAA level and shouldn't be expected to do well anywhere outside of Petco but it's enough where I'm talking myself out of trying it for 2 units. Anyway, Mahle is really talented but is having command HR issues. It's tough to hit HRs in Petco and the Padres don't hit many anyway so that should help Mahle quite a bit. San Diego doesn't seem like they have a patient enough lineup to take advantage of the command issues either. I think Mahle pitches very well here. The Reds are hitting pretty well and like I said Lockett just is not ready for the Majors. San Diego has the bullpen edge but I have to think Cincinnati leads by at least a few runs when the starters leave and that should be enough to get us there. Will call for a 6-2 Cincinnati win.
Kershaw's velocity is wayyyy down in his return from DL.
Kershaw didn't throw his fastball much, says his back hurt halfway thru the start. He definitely doesn't seem healthy despite pitching pretty well. Once teams figure out he can't throw his FB he'll give up more runs (unless he gets healthy quick, obviously).
Once again I don't understand some of these lines on the Tigers. Just feel like bookies are undervaluing them all year vs. lefties. Detroit kills left-handed pitching and has their lineup finally healthy. Happ has put together 3 good starts in a row after some tough ones earlier this year but he's faced teams that can't hit lefties over that span. Happ is older now and simply isn't the ace he used to be, and his recent form is inflated by favorable opponents. Detroit is hitting well and harming southpaws lately. Toronto, meanwhile, isn't hitting southpaws very well and is in a bit of a pitching slump lately. They just put Donaldson on the DL and are facing a very good lefty in Boyd. The main concern with Boyd is that he doesn't go deep in games and this Detroit pen is tough to trust for as many innings as they might have to go, but getting the home team at +129 with everything else considered seems like a great deal to me. Toronto didn't score a single run over 3 innings vs. the Detroit pen last game and the Tigers' group of relievers has been decent enough (much better than last season at least). Sign me up.
Reds/Padres o8.5 -102
I usually tell myself only stupid people play overs at Petco Park but I'll be a stupid person for today. I just can't see these starters doing well. San Diego isn't capable of hitting a lot of pitchers but Harvey just isn't that good anymore. San Diego should be able to put up a few runs off of him, and Harvey doesn't go deep into games so we should get plenty of this below average Cincinnati bullpen. Then you have Lauer for the Padres who simply isn't ready for this level of play. He's been rocked at home numerous times this year and Cincinnati is both hitting well and capable against southpaws. San Diego's bullpen is also having some issues after a strong start to the year and Lauer's inability to go deep won't help them any in that regard. I don't want to make a habit of playing Petco overs but just think the Reds win 6-4 or so.
Rangers +163
I like Richards as a pitcher but think he's overvalued here. The Rangers' lineup is back at full strength with Beltre healthy and Texas is hitting fairly well lately. I doubt they'll get too much against Richards but a run or 2 likely keeps them in the game here. The Angels are probably without Cozart today and they haven't hit lefties well this year or last. Hamels has pitched really well in this stadium the past few seasons and should get in another quality start. Bullpens appear fairly even. LAA just doesn't deserve to be favored by this much and Texas should have a shot at the win.
DBacks -1.5 +128
Everyone is on the DBacks and the line has moved the other way but I still feel like betting into this potentially poor situation. Greinke is a stud and Miami isn't doing much hitting right now. Their walk rates are low and their strikeouts are high. They couldn't hit a lesser pitcher in Buchholz yesterday and Arizona has a nice pen. Caleb Smith has been a very nice pitcher this year for Miami but he's also faced one of the easiest schedules in baseball and isn't as good as his stats indicate. He's faced a bunch of teams that either don't hit lefties or that play in pitcher-friendly parks. Arizona hits lefties and even was hitting lefties during their massive batting slump that they now appear to be out of. In addition to that, Miami's bullpen is always a threat to give up a million runs. DBacks win 7-2. I also felt like the over could be a good play with the total set low and Arizona's scoring potential but the weird line movement that is countering both plays made me reduce risk to a single unit.
Weird game between Brewers and White Sox today. Wind is blasting out in an over park. Suter gives up fewer HRs than Covey but Suter is more of a fly ball pitcher compared to Covey's ground ball tendencies. With the wind blowing out at 17 MPH I'd figure some of those fly ball outs that Suter gets might find their way over the fence, but ultimately going to pass as I think Suter is a much better pitcher than Covey at this stage.
Indians/Twins o9 +106
I have to try this one. Wind is blasting out at 20 MPH and both teams have a ton of power. Both pitchers are pretty good at avoiding the HR but when the wind is going out like this those pop flys will carry. On top of that both teams are hitting pretty well and these bullpens are just about as bad as it gets. I honestly think this bet might have a chance even if both starters hurl 6 shutout innings each. 9 just seems low, this is a park that favors hitters and with the wind blasting out and 2 awful pens this makes too much sense to pass up.
Just the one bet today I guess. Lots of leans. If anyone wants another play I think the Reds/Padres under is my 2nd favorite.
Might end up taking the Yankees on the RL in game 2 but want to see the lineups first to make sure NYY isn't resting a bunch of guys.
Royals +166
Royals/Angels u8.5 +102
Duffy had a rough start to the year but is pitching better lately. Had a shoulder injury at the end of spring that I think contributed to his struggles but he seems over it and if he's healthy he's a solid pitcher. The Angels don't hit lefties and couldn't hit Duffy last year. Tropeano is a solid pitcher as well and had a very nice start against the Royals earlier this year where he went almost 7 innings and didn't give up any runs. KC's offense isn't anything scary. The bullpens here are where we could lose both bets. LAA's has been better lately but KC's is obviously a mess. At the end of the day I just think both starters are capable of putting in excellent outings and the total is set high enough where the pens shouldn't be able to blow it (hopefully).
Two excellent pens, two excellent lefty starters... both teams hit lefties pretty well but this is a park that caters to pitchers and both teams are missing some pieces of their lineups. Cano out for Mariners, Reddick/McCann out for Astros. Just felt like a pitcher's duel with both starters having a history of throwing dominant innings against the opponent.
Braves/Padres u7.5 -117
Padres hitting surprisingly well but this is still a park that caters to pitchers and Newcomb has been very impressive. Padres also haven't been facing much quality in terms of opposing pitchers or bullpens during this "hot" stretch. Newcomb does have the command issues which scare me but he was dominant last year in Petco when his command wasn't close to where it is this year. Lyles for San Diego is pretty stinky honestly but he's pitched well at home this year and Atlanta's offense isn't as scary as it was earlier in the year. Their hits and walks are both low lately and I just don't think the offense has a good feel for hitting right now. Both pens have been trustworthy. Let's say Braves win 4-2.
Comments
Cards just scratched Ozuna, were already resting Pham, Fowler back in the lineup.
Plays running fashionably late.
Reds/DBacks o8 -105
Romano is struggling with his control and even though Arizona isn't doing much hitting lately I have to imagine they get some runs off of him. Even when he's controlling his stuff he doesn't go deep in the game so you should expect 4 innings or so of Arizona getting to hit against this below average bullpen. Corbin is having big velocity issues lately and seems like he might not be healthy. He's been getting away with it while facing some of the absolute worst lefty-hitting teams in baseball but the Reds are capable of getting some runs off of him here. They're about average vs. lefties which is much more of a challenge than the other teams Corbin has faced of late. The humidor is definitely keeping runs down in Arizona but I think both starters give some up and 8 is so low that I'll take a shot. 5-4 DBacks.
UPDATE: Right after placing this bet I learned the Reds are resting Scooter. Really hot bat lately but only average against lefties. Would prefer he be in the lineup but not a death knell.
Astros +174
This line was way higher than I figured. Severino is obviously filthy and he dominated the Astros in a complete game earlier this year but that was also when Houston was in a hitting slump. Their recent form has been much better and Houston hit Severino pretty hard in 3 of 4 starts last year. The Yankees hit lefties really well but are in a bit of an offensive slump lately. Keuchel has a good history of pitching well in Yankee Stadium and did well against NYY earlier this year when they were hitting better. Both bullpens are elite. Have to try it.
Nats/Orioles u8.5 -110
Scherzer is a stud and the Orioles aren't hitting much lately. Nats' pen is only average but Max might just go the full 9 here. Baltimore getting shut out wouldn't surprise me much. Hess for Baltimore isn't anything special but he's decent enough and Washington's bats aren't that great right now due to the injuries. The Nats have been beating up on bullpens lately but don't seem to be in top form and have had middling outings against starters. 8.5 just seems really high with Scherzer on the mound against a team that isn't hitting. Nats win 5-1.
That's all for today. Short card.
https://twitter.com/DanielMosherNY/status/1001913833311567879
Leans: Cubs -148, Phillies/Dodgers u6.5 -105, Twins +119
Actually had the Twins favored but going to pass for now. This Bieber kid is interesting. Some of the best control to get the call up in years, has 4 pitches that are average or above average, dominating the minors... interested to see how it translates. He doesn't have any great pitches but has 4 solid ones that he controls exceptionally. Not your average prospect so taking a wait-and-see approach.
Parlay: Risking 1 unit to win 2.18
Angels -1.5 -150
Angels/Tigers o9.5 -110
So both of these bets are really iffy from a line value perspective but I'm going off the standard procedure as I just don't see any other way this game plays out. Heaney is a good lefty but pitching in a tough park and against a team that hits lefties well. Detroit is hitting well overall lately and could have Miggy back here. Heaney has proven capable of pitching in tough parks this year but I still think he'll give up maybe 3 runs over 6 innings or so. Angels' pen has been better recently but still tough to trust so we might get a late Detroit run or 2. The main reason why I like both bets is that Carpenter for the Tigers is going to get rocked. He struggles to get outs in the Minors and just won't last long here. The Angels should put up 4 or 5 runs really early and then we'll get a below average Detroit pen stretched out way past what they are capable of. With the deficit I'd expect to see some lesser relievers for both teams. Angels win 8-4. I don't plan on making a habit out of playing lines that I see this minimal of value in but after going over the game a million times I just can't see any other way it plays out. Will roll the dice on the parlay.
Cubs/Mets o8 -107
Quintana has a chance to do well here as the Mets can't hit lefties but I think the Cubs score enough runs to get us here. I get that this park is friendly to pitchers but the Cubs are hitting well lately and Lugo isn't worth trusting. He's going to give up some runs and he's been working in relief so he won't be able to go more than a few innings before handing it off to a poor Mets' bullpen for a long stretch. I just don't see how that goes well for NYM. The Mets don't hit lefties but are actually hitting pretty darn well lately despite all the injuries. Their youngsters might be better than some of the highly paid vets on the DL... 8 just seems way too low. Also Quintana is alternating good and bad starts lately so he might not be in regular season form quite yet. Cubs win 6-3.
Phillies +149
Whoever opened this game up at LAD -215 really messed up. Holy moly that was a bad line. It's been steamed closer to where it should be now but there is still plenty of value left. Both starters should dominate. Neither team hitting up to their standards. Bullpens are similar. Did the bookies forget that Nola has turned into a verifiable ace? Not sure what's going on but this is a coin flip and home field isn't worth 60 cents.
Marlins +125
Chen is starting to pitch like he's capable of and the Padres can't hit lefties. Chen gets in trouble with the long ball at times but Petco is a tough place to hit HRs and the Padres don't hit many anyway. The Miami bullpen is obviously sketchy as can be but this seems like a game that Chen can go 7+ innings in to help alleviate that concern a bit. Lyles for the Padres just isn't very good. Pitching in Petco against this light-hitting Marlins team gives him a chance to do well but he's nowhere near the pitcher that Chen is. This game is a coinflip so take the +125 and hope the bullpen doesn't implode.
Callaway said Mets will inevitably have a reliever bat tonight.
Leans: Yankees/Orioles u9.5 +100, Mets +110, Nats -130, Nats/Braves u8.5 -120, Indians/Twins o8 -110, Cards -140, DBacks -140,
My lines weren't close on that Nats/Braves game so laid off. Lines and movement seem to indicate that Strasburg gives up runs here but I don't see why that would be. I feel he'll dominate this team as he did earlier this year when the Braves were hitting better. Foltynewicz seems to have turned a corner but he's pitching over his head and is, at best, a slightly above average pitcher. I think he should give up some runs, but then again the Nats' offense isn't as good as it was when they were healthy. Ultimately this feels like a 5-2 Nats win but I don't understand the lines and that scared me off. I just don't think the side gets set that low and the total gets set that high unless someone in the know expects Strasburg to have a less than stellar outing...
Cubs/Mets o8.5 -112
Both of these teams are hitting pretty well right now. This is usually a park that caters to pitcher's but the wind is blowing out at around 10 MPH and that might help mitigate that somewhat. Chatwood has been a mess this year and his command is even worse than normal. He is dealing with some sort of issue that he can't quite figure out. I'm not sure if Wheeler is an average pitcher or worse than that but he's the type of guy that almost always gives up some runs. Both of these guys put a million hitters on base. Chatwood seems more likely to get away with that as he has the stronger pen behind him but I also feel that as far as starters go, Wheeler is probably a bit easier to trust currently. If the Mets' pen blows this one late it should just be insurance on the over so I'm okay making both bets. Both starters were knocked around by the opposition last year in a major way. I had NYM at around -115 FWIW. Considered them as a bet but the over just felt stronger so I went with that. There's an off chance that Chatwood finally figures out his problems but not enough to worry me. Let's hope the Mets win 6-5 or so.
Royals +110
Ian Kennedy is a scary guy to have to trust but the A's aren't hitting much of anything lately and Kennedy has been good against the light-hitting teams he's faced this year. Crush Davis is back for Oakland and helps the offense but Semien is out with a newborn baby so that takes away some luster of Crush being back. Oakland's lineup just has been a mess lately and I think Kennedy is good enough to keep them mostly in check. Who knows what to expect of Montas... even tougher to trust than Kennedy IMO. He's a former elite prospect that just never figured out how to command his stuff. He's been below average at best in the minors the past few years (including this season). He had a great debut but it came against the biggest slumping offense in baseball so I don't think he can continue to be good. KC's offense is hitting well. Neither of these pitchers should go deep into the game so these bullpens will play a part... KC's is trash but Oakland's has been really bad as well when they get stretched after poor innings from the starter which I think is very much in play here. This one won't be easy but there's enough here to try the home team at +110.
Reds -110
REALLYYYYY want to go to 2 units on this but holding off for now. Petco Park allows some poor pitchers to do well and I'm wondering if Lockett will hold on to do enough. He's a poor pitcher at the AAA level and shouldn't be expected to do well anywhere outside of Petco but it's enough where I'm talking myself out of trying it for 2 units. Anyway, Mahle is really talented but is having command HR issues. It's tough to hit HRs in Petco and the Padres don't hit many anyway so that should help Mahle quite a bit. San Diego doesn't seem like they have a patient enough lineup to take advantage of the command issues either. I think Mahle pitches very well here. The Reds are hitting pretty well and like I said Lockett just is not ready for the Majors. San Diego has the bullpen edge but I have to think Cincinnati leads by at least a few runs when the starters leave and that should be enough to get us there. Will call for a 6-2 Cincinnati win.
Kershaw didn't throw his fastball much, says his back hurt halfway thru the start. He definitely doesn't seem healthy despite pitching pretty well. Once teams figure out he can't throw his FB he'll give up more runs (unless he gets healthy quick, obviously).
Kayakers take note. We've got baseball-flying' weather at AT&T right now. #SFGiants
Leans: Pirates +133, Orioles +157, Marlins/DBacks o7.5 +112
Detroit Tigers +129
Once again I don't understand some of these lines on the Tigers. Just feel like bookies are undervaluing them all year vs. lefties. Detroit kills left-handed pitching and has their lineup finally healthy. Happ has put together 3 good starts in a row after some tough ones earlier this year but he's faced teams that can't hit lefties over that span. Happ is older now and simply isn't the ace he used to be, and his recent form is inflated by favorable opponents. Detroit is hitting well and harming southpaws lately. Toronto, meanwhile, isn't hitting southpaws very well and is in a bit of a pitching slump lately. They just put Donaldson on the DL and are facing a very good lefty in Boyd. The main concern with Boyd is that he doesn't go deep in games and this Detroit pen is tough to trust for as many innings as they might have to go, but getting the home team at +129 with everything else considered seems like a great deal to me. Toronto didn't score a single run over 3 innings vs. the Detroit pen last game and the Tigers' group of relievers has been decent enough (much better than last season at least). Sign me up.
Reds/Padres o8.5 -102
I usually tell myself only stupid people play overs at Petco Park but I'll be a stupid person for today. I just can't see these starters doing well. San Diego isn't capable of hitting a lot of pitchers but Harvey just isn't that good anymore. San Diego should be able to put up a few runs off of him, and Harvey doesn't go deep into games so we should get plenty of this below average Cincinnati bullpen. Then you have Lauer for the Padres who simply isn't ready for this level of play. He's been rocked at home numerous times this year and Cincinnati is both hitting well and capable against southpaws. San Diego's bullpen is also having some issues after a strong start to the year and Lauer's inability to go deep won't help them any in that regard. I don't want to make a habit of playing Petco overs but just think the Reds win 6-4 or so.
Rangers +163
I like Richards as a pitcher but think he's overvalued here. The Rangers' lineup is back at full strength with Beltre healthy and Texas is hitting fairly well lately. I doubt they'll get too much against Richards but a run or 2 likely keeps them in the game here. The Angels are probably without Cozart today and they haven't hit lefties well this year or last. Hamels has pitched really well in this stadium the past few seasons and should get in another quality start. Bullpens appear fairly even. LAA just doesn't deserve to be favored by this much and Texas should have a shot at the win.
DBacks -1.5 +128
Everyone is on the DBacks and the line has moved the other way but I still feel like betting into this potentially poor situation. Greinke is a stud and Miami isn't doing much hitting right now. Their walk rates are low and their strikeouts are high. They couldn't hit a lesser pitcher in Buchholz yesterday and Arizona has a nice pen. Caleb Smith has been a very nice pitcher this year for Miami but he's also faced one of the easiest schedules in baseball and isn't as good as his stats indicate. He's faced a bunch of teams that either don't hit lefties or that play in pitcher-friendly parks. Arizona hits lefties and even was hitting lefties during their massive batting slump that they now appear to be out of. In addition to that, Miami's bullpen is always a threat to give up a million runs. DBacks win 7-2. I also felt like the over could be a good play with the total set low and Arizona's scoring potential but the weird line movement that is countering both plays made me reduce risk to a single unit.
Weird game between Brewers and White Sox today. Wind is blasting out in an over park. Suter gives up fewer HRs than Covey but Suter is more of a fly ball pitcher compared to Covey's ground ball tendencies. With the wind blowing out at 17 MPH I'd figure some of those fly ball outs that Suter gets might find their way over the fence, but ultimately going to pass as I think Suter is a much better pitcher than Covey at this stage.
Indians/Twins o9 +106
I have to try this one. Wind is blasting out at 20 MPH and both teams have a ton of power. Both pitchers are pretty good at avoiding the HR but when the wind is going out like this those pop flys will carry. On top of that both teams are hitting pretty well and these bullpens are just about as bad as it gets. I honestly think this bet might have a chance even if both starters hurl 6 shutout innings each. 9 just seems low, this is a park that favors hitters and with the wind blasting out and 2 awful pens this makes too much sense to pass up.
Just the one bet today I guess. Lots of leans. If anyone wants another play I think the Reds/Padres under is my 2nd favorite.
Might end up taking the Yankees on the RL in game 2 but want to see the lineups first to make sure NYY isn't resting a bunch of guys.
Royals +166
Royals/Angels u8.5 +102
Duffy had a rough start to the year but is pitching better lately. Had a shoulder injury at the end of spring that I think contributed to his struggles but he seems over it and if he's healthy he's a solid pitcher. The Angels don't hit lefties and couldn't hit Duffy last year. Tropeano is a solid pitcher as well and had a very nice start against the Royals earlier this year where he went almost 7 innings and didn't give up any runs. KC's offense isn't anything scary. The bullpens here are where we could lose both bets. LAA's has been better lately but KC's is obviously a mess. At the end of the day I just think both starters are capable of putting in excellent outings and the total is set high enough where the pens shouldn't be able to blow it (hopefully).
Mariners/Astros u7.5 -115
Two excellent pens, two excellent lefty starters... both teams hit lefties pretty well but this is a park that caters to pitchers and both teams are missing some pieces of their lineups. Cano out for Mariners, Reddick/McCann out for Astros. Just felt like a pitcher's duel with both starters having a history of throwing dominant innings against the opponent.
Braves/Padres u7.5 -117
Padres hitting surprisingly well but this is still a park that caters to pitchers and Newcomb has been very impressive. Padres also haven't been facing much quality in terms of opposing pitchers or bullpens during this "hot" stretch. Newcomb does have the command issues which scare me but he was dominant last year in Petco when his command wasn't close to where it is this year. Lyles for San Diego is pretty stinky honestly but he's pitched well at home this year and Atlanta's offense isn't as scary as it was earlier in the year. Their hits and walks are both low lately and I just don't think the offense has a good feel for hitting right now. Both pens have been trustworthy. Let's say Braves win 4-2.