Marlins play today was a cancel as they changed starters and I never updated anything. Miami did score off Buehler in the 1st though for anyone that took it after the change.
Zack Wheeler explains why he is developing a split-finger fastball: "My slider has been crappy this year and my curveball is not really a put-away pitch."
I'm apparently missing something here but can't lay off. I firmly believe that Detroit should be favored here... the fact that I'm about 80 cents off on my line and it hasn't moved will almost definitely tell me I'm wrong but I can't resist. Detroit is without Miggy, Leonys Martin, Candelario, and probably Jacoby Jones here but all 4 of those guys have been useless against lefties this season. Candelario can hit them but he's been cold, but that hasn't stopped Detroit from ranking top 5 in OPS vs. southpaws. They just hit Gonzales hard in his last start and I don't see why they can't do it again with the guys they have left. Seattle is without Cano and most likely Nelson Cruz so that's a major ding. Cano is a good hitter against lefties and Cruz hits for plenty of power (albeit a low average) against them. That seems way more important than what Detroit is missing, and Seattle didn't hit Boyd much in his last start with a healthier roster. Boyd is a much better pitcher than Gonzales. Someone please tell me what I'm missing here... Seattle has a small pen edge but I think Detroit can hit here and doubt Seattle can get too much going. Cruz and Cano are 2 of Seattle's top 5 guys in terms of OPS vs. lefties... I just don't get this line at all. Lean o8.5 as well but don't want the exposure on a game that feels super fishy.
Rays +149
Archer had a nightmare matchup last time out vs. Baltimore (he always gets rocked by them) but I was encouraged by a few of his previous starts. Seems he's shaken off the rust from that spring training injury that caused him to start the regular season terribly. Archer has always pitched well in this stadium and now that he's back to normal I think he's capable of pitching another solid one. LAA's offense is good but they aren't in any sort of form where I think Archer won't have success. Skaggs might finally be turning into the above average pitcher he's been capable of being for years but he also hasn't been super sharp lately. The Rays have hit lefties decently this year and the fact that Gomez and Duffy are out doesn't matter much since neither can touch southpaws. Just seems like a game where both starters give up 2 or 3 runs while pitching well and bullpens are even enough for me to take a shot. LAA's pen has been way off lately but I still think they are capable. That's a story for another day but the Rays have a shot here.
Marco Gonzales has a 5.31 ERA and a 1.525 WHIP. You are telling me this guy is a legit -200 favorite? Something is definitely up with this game. Might have to get off of it.
I got -181 on the tigers and that is me assuming at least 2 major injuries out
I was only at -131 but the 4 Tigers who are out that aren't touching lefties aren't even equal to the Mariners not having Cano and Cruz. Nothing about this makes sense. Nelson Cruz gets confirmed out and the line jumps 20 cents in favor of Seattle? What the hell.
No Injuries I have the Mariners -151 and my back like make sure I am right system has them -175 so, i think you are about 20 cents or so off on the base line
I might be naive or dumb but I have not seen any leftie rightie change the change to the line for an injured player. For example if Cano is -15 on my system, he would be -15 whether going against a leftie or rightie and most stuff I see that shows to be consistent. Remember dude not all money going at these games knows saber and his cousins, most people just like the Mariners at home and they know the Tigers suck and the only star is out!
Marlins couldn't touch Newcomb last start. He's prone to random bad starts but his control has been, well, under control lately and he's been dominant. Guy has a ton of potential and Miami can't be trusted to hit lefties. Wind blowing in at 10 MPH should help keep the ball in the park. Straily is a solid pitcher when healthy and he's been closer to normal his last 2 starts after coming stumbling out of the gate following the late start to the year. He limited the Braves to 2 earned runs over 5 innings in his last start. Obviously the Marlins' pen is a concern but both starters should do well enough and 9.5 just seems really high.
Phillies +115
Arrieta is a very nice pitcher and the Cardinals aren't hitting a ton lately. Wacha is an average pitcher and the Phillies have a very nice lineup that is producing well. Bullpens are average. Wrong team is favored. Wouldn't surprise me to see the Phillies go off as favorites here.
Rockies/Giants o8.5 -105
Rockies hit lefties well and Holland is a very hittable pitcher. Not having DJ in the lineup hurts but Colorado still has plenty of ammo and should get runs without too much resistance. Freeland has pitched really well lately but he's also faced the worst of the worst when it comes to hitting lefties. The Giants are hitting well lately and are better than last year at hitting southpaws. Freeland is a pretty hittable pitcher himself and pitching above his skill level. I don't think either starter lasts particularly long here.
Yankees/Royals u9.5 -120
Kansas City has been average on the year against lefties this season but they just have no pop at all. Duda doesn't hit lefties well but he's one of their only sources of power. This lineup just looks sad and has struggled against the better lefties they've faced. CC is an above average pitcher when he's actually healthy and I think he's in a good spot. He should pitch a very nice game and then he turns it over to the best pen in baseball. I just can't see the Royals getting more than a run or 2. NYY obviously has a scary lineup but this KC park is generally pretty good to pitchers and Junis is an up-and-coming prospect that can absolutely deal on occasion. Junis gave up 6 runs over 6 innings in a start last year against Yankee Stadium when he wasn't nearly as good of a pitcher as he is now. He won't have to much better than that to get us close to where we need to be. Kansas City's bullpen could always screw us and it wouldn't surprise me at all but I think the Yankees will lead maybe 4-1 after 6 innings which should give us a nice chance of the win.
White Sox +121
Fulmer is tough to trust since he has major control issues but I think that could work out in his favor this matchup. His stuff is electric... he just can't figure out where it's going. Good teams will be patient and draw a bunch of walks but the Rangers are a free-swinging bunch that don't have that patience. That makes me believe Fulmer has a chance to do well with Texas not hitting well lately. The White Sox's offense isn't doing a ton of hitting either right now but Fister is a below average pitcher and it doesn't take a ton to hit him. White Sox may have a slight bullpen advantage, although that is debatable. The Rangers also rely on the long ball and the wind blowing in at about 12 MPH should help keep that in check. All in all this seems like a tossup.
Tigers +145
Here we go with round 2 of lines I don't understand at all. Felix is not a good pitcher any more and even this depleted Tigers lineup should be able to get some runs off of him. Seattle's offense is without Cano and Cruz which takes out a massive amount of pop. Fulmer is an above average pitcher. Why is Seattle favored by so much? Another tossup IMO.
Waiting to cap SD @ PIT (Marte/Cervelli status), CHC @ CIN (Suarez status), and CLE @ HOU (Encarnacion status).
JJ Upton iffy tomorrow for Angels. Encarnacion (Indians) and Suarez (Reds) still iffy as well. Did get one injury out of the way... Marte for the Pirates heading to DL. Cervelli did make it back today so only 1 new Pirate out, but an important one.
Small lean to Padres at +119 but passing. Ross is the better starter and should do well but it's tough to trust the Padres for run support, even against a hittable guy like Nova.
Lean White Sox -115 but has already been steamed overnight. Much preferred the +121 I got on opener before the pitching change but ultimately didn't affect my handicapped line all that much. The 36 cent swing takes me off of it though.
Manaea is a stud and Toronto hasn't hit lefties that well this year. Manaea has had some issues lately but has also had some tough assignments. The Jays have the potential harm this pen but Oakland has a huge advantage when it comes to starters. Bigaini wasn't sharp in AAA this year and his minor league history really only projects him as an average MLB pitcher at best. Oakland is hitting very nicely on this road trip and should continue to hit. Toronto obviously has the be advantage but I'll take a small favorite that is likely to have a 5-2 lead after 6 innings. Manaea is also the most qualified of the A's pitchers to go deep in games so that takes stress off the bullpen when he's on the bump.
Only have capped about 7 games, still waiting on a bunch of starting pitchers and some injuries (Encarnacion, Surarez, JD Martinez, Upton, Cruz). Will update later.
Velasquez isn't anything special but the Cards can't hit anyone right now so he should do well. He's struggled with walks and the long ball but this is a good park for pitcher's and that should help limit the damage. Wind should be blowing in around 10 MPH to help with his long ball issues as well. The Cardinals' offense isn't showing any plate discipline lately either with high strikeouts and lower walk rate so I think he can do well. Weaver has all the talent in the world but is also young and prone to losing his command too often. Philadelphia's offense is very good and I think their patient approach will serve them well here. Bullpens are about even. I only had the Cards favored at about -120.
Waiting to cap SD @ PIT (PIT sat half their lineup today, some due to injury), DET @ SEA (Cruz iffy), TB @ LAA (Gomez/Duffy iffy), and OAK @ TOR (A's need to name a pitcher)
Very nice job on the Philadelphia Phillies thank you very much of course I wish I hit it harder:clapup:
Now the Marlins/Braves u9.5 today is scratched as Atlanta wants to rest Newcomb an extra day. Starting to get annoying to spend time handicapping early and then 2 or 3 games a day have pitching changes where I have to cap again. Seems like more pitching changes this year than usual.
Martin back for Tigers and Jacoby Jones didn't miss time so only 2 guys down from normal lineup there. Neither guy that important but better than having to bring up 4 guys from AAA or whatever.
FML speaking of pitching changes the Blue Jays just announced one so the one game I liked tomorrow is scratched. Still waiting on pitchers in like 6 or 7 games. Not ideal.
Have to take a shot here. Paxton just gave up 3 runs to this team last start and the Tigers are healthier than they were for that clash. The better health is probably negated by playing in a better park for pitchers but that doesn't take away from the fact that Detroit hit lefties really well last year and is hitting them really well this year. Paxton should have a nice start but should gave up a run or 2 here and there before handing it off to an average bullpen. The main reason I like this over is because Nelson Cruz is back for the Mariners and I don't think Fiers can put in good innings here. He's had a few nice starts in a row but he's also fully capable of getting rocked any time he toes the mound and is a below average pitcher at best. He's giving up a ton of HRs and the Mariners' lineup is fully capable of hitting a bunch of long balls. He's just been pitching over his head for a while and this feels like a start where the ERA and WHIP regress back to normal. Fiers gave up 5 runs over 4 innings last year at Safeco and I'd expect something similar. Even when he's dealing he never goes past 6 innings before handing it off to an average/below average pen. 7.5 just seems too low. Mariners win 6-3.
Comments
Zack Wheeler explains why he is developing a split-finger fastball: "My slider has been crappy this year and my curveball is not really a put-away pitch."
Leans: Jays -116, A's/Jays u9.5
Tigers +153
I'm apparently missing something here but can't lay off. I firmly believe that Detroit should be favored here... the fact that I'm about 80 cents off on my line and it hasn't moved will almost definitely tell me I'm wrong but I can't resist. Detroit is without Miggy, Leonys Martin, Candelario, and probably Jacoby Jones here but all 4 of those guys have been useless against lefties this season. Candelario can hit them but he's been cold, but that hasn't stopped Detroit from ranking top 5 in OPS vs. southpaws. They just hit Gonzales hard in his last start and I don't see why they can't do it again with the guys they have left. Seattle is without Cano and most likely Nelson Cruz so that's a major ding. Cano is a good hitter against lefties and Cruz hits for plenty of power (albeit a low average) against them. That seems way more important than what Detroit is missing, and Seattle didn't hit Boyd much in his last start with a healthier roster. Boyd is a much better pitcher than Gonzales. Someone please tell me what I'm missing here... Seattle has a small pen edge but I think Detroit can hit here and doubt Seattle can get too much going. Cruz and Cano are 2 of Seattle's top 5 guys in terms of OPS vs. lefties... I just don't get this line at all. Lean o8.5 as well but don't want the exposure on a game that feels super fishy.
Rays +149
Archer had a nightmare matchup last time out vs. Baltimore (he always gets rocked by them) but I was encouraged by a few of his previous starts. Seems he's shaken off the rust from that spring training injury that caused him to start the regular season terribly. Archer has always pitched well in this stadium and now that he's back to normal I think he's capable of pitching another solid one. LAA's offense is good but they aren't in any sort of form where I think Archer won't have success. Skaggs might finally be turning into the above average pitcher he's been capable of being for years but he also hasn't been super sharp lately. The Rays have hit lefties decently this year and the fact that Gomez and Duffy are out doesn't matter much since neither can touch southpaws. Just seems like a game where both starters give up 2 or 3 runs while pitching well and bullpens are even enough for me to take a shot. LAA's pen has been way off lately but I still think they are capable. That's a story for another day but the Rays have a shot here.
I was only at -131 but the 4 Tigers who are out that aren't touching lefties aren't even equal to the Mariners not having Cano and Cruz. Nothing about this makes sense. Nelson Cruz gets confirmed out and the line jumps 20 cents in favor of Seattle? What the hell.
Marlins/Braves u9.5 -120
Marlins couldn't touch Newcomb last start. He's prone to random bad starts but his control has been, well, under control lately and he's been dominant. Guy has a ton of potential and Miami can't be trusted to hit lefties. Wind blowing in at 10 MPH should help keep the ball in the park. Straily is a solid pitcher when healthy and he's been closer to normal his last 2 starts after coming stumbling out of the gate following the late start to the year. He limited the Braves to 2 earned runs over 5 innings in his last start. Obviously the Marlins' pen is a concern but both starters should do well enough and 9.5 just seems really high.
Phillies +115
Arrieta is a very nice pitcher and the Cardinals aren't hitting a ton lately. Wacha is an average pitcher and the Phillies have a very nice lineup that is producing well. Bullpens are average. Wrong team is favored. Wouldn't surprise me to see the Phillies go off as favorites here.
Rockies/Giants o8.5 -105
Rockies hit lefties well and Holland is a very hittable pitcher. Not having DJ in the lineup hurts but Colorado still has plenty of ammo and should get runs without too much resistance. Freeland has pitched really well lately but he's also faced the worst of the worst when it comes to hitting lefties. The Giants are hitting well lately and are better than last year at hitting southpaws. Freeland is a pretty hittable pitcher himself and pitching above his skill level. I don't think either starter lasts particularly long here.
Yankees/Royals u9.5 -120
Kansas City has been average on the year against lefties this season but they just have no pop at all. Duda doesn't hit lefties well but he's one of their only sources of power. This lineup just looks sad and has struggled against the better lefties they've faced. CC is an above average pitcher when he's actually healthy and I think he's in a good spot. He should pitch a very nice game and then he turns it over to the best pen in baseball. I just can't see the Royals getting more than a run or 2. NYY obviously has a scary lineup but this KC park is generally pretty good to pitchers and Junis is an up-and-coming prospect that can absolutely deal on occasion. Junis gave up 6 runs over 6 innings in a start last year against Yankee Stadium when he wasn't nearly as good of a pitcher as he is now. He won't have to much better than that to get us close to where we need to be. Kansas City's bullpen could always screw us and it wouldn't surprise me at all but I think the Yankees will lead maybe 4-1 after 6 innings which should give us a nice chance of the win.
White Sox +121
Fulmer is tough to trust since he has major control issues but I think that could work out in his favor this matchup. His stuff is electric... he just can't figure out where it's going. Good teams will be patient and draw a bunch of walks but the Rangers are a free-swinging bunch that don't have that patience. That makes me believe Fulmer has a chance to do well with Texas not hitting well lately. The White Sox's offense isn't doing a ton of hitting either right now but Fister is a below average pitcher and it doesn't take a ton to hit him. White Sox may have a slight bullpen advantage, although that is debatable. The Rangers also rely on the long ball and the wind blowing in at about 12 MPH should help keep that in check. All in all this seems like a tossup.
Tigers +145
Here we go with round 2 of lines I don't understand at all. Felix is not a good pitcher any more and even this depleted Tigers lineup should be able to get some runs off of him. Seattle's offense is without Cano and Cruz which takes out a massive amount of pop. Fulmer is an above average pitcher. Why is Seattle favored by so much? Another tossup IMO.
Waiting to cap SD @ PIT (Marte/Cervelli status), CHC @ CIN (Suarez status), and CLE @ HOU (Encarnacion status).
All 3 dogs hit. Heading in the right direction for at least one day.
Leans: Nats -126
Athletics -112
Manaea is a stud and Toronto hasn't hit lefties that well this year. Manaea has had some issues lately but has also had some tough assignments. The Jays have the potential harm this pen but Oakland has a huge advantage when it comes to starters. Bigaini wasn't sharp in AAA this year and his minor league history really only projects him as an average MLB pitcher at best. Oakland is hitting very nicely on this road trip and should continue to hit. Toronto obviously has the be advantage but I'll take a small favorite that is likely to have a 5-2 lead after 6 innings. Manaea is also the most qualified of the A's pitchers to go deep in games so that takes stress off the bullpen when he's on the bump.
Only have capped about 7 games, still waiting on a bunch of starting pitchers and some injuries (Encarnacion, Surarez, JD Martinez, Upton, Cruz). Will update later.
Tigers/Mariners o7.5 -105
Have to take a shot here. Paxton just gave up 3 runs to this team last start and the Tigers are healthier than they were for that clash. The better health is probably negated by playing in a better park for pitchers but that doesn't take away from the fact that Detroit hit lefties really well last year and is hitting them really well this year. Paxton should have a nice start but should gave up a run or 2 here and there before handing it off to an average bullpen. The main reason I like this over is because Nelson Cruz is back for the Mariners and I don't think Fiers can put in good innings here. He's had a few nice starts in a row but he's also fully capable of getting rocked any time he toes the mound and is a below average pitcher at best. He's giving up a ton of HRs and the Mariners' lineup is fully capable of hitting a bunch of long balls. He's just been pitching over his head for a while and this feels like a start where the ERA and WHIP regress back to normal. Fiers gave up 5 runs over 4 innings last year at Safeco and I'd expect something similar. Even when he's dealing he never goes past 6 innings before handing it off to an average/below average pen. 7.5 just seems too low. Mariners win 6-3.