Betting Talk

Running thread of my MLB Plays, good luck to all

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Comments

  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Tigers had a 4-0 lead in the 7th and decide to put in some of their worst relief pitchers... andddddd the lead is gone. Not the best managerial decision. The guys used had a combined WHIP of like 1.7... yuck.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Just a heads up... doubt I'll have any plays until the 25th or so. Spending the next few days in Glacier National Park. I might toss out a play or 2 a day or maybe none. Definitely won't be full cards. Best of luck to everyone in the meantime!
  • bluejakebluejake Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Enjoy your time away from the grind!
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Just getting caught up on everything. Lean u10.5 in Giants/Cubs I suppose. Wind is only blowing out at 10 MPH which isn't that much for Wrigley. Hendricks should do well. Cubs hit lefties well and Holland is below average. Should give up runs but Schwarber and Heyward out of the lineup today takes away a bit of pop. 10.5 just seems high for the current conditions but ultimately I don't want to mess with a Wrigley under when the wind is blowing out.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Just getting caught up on everything. Lean u10.5 in Giants/Cubs I suppose. Wind is only blowing out at 10 MPH which isn't that much for Wrigley. Hendricks should do well. Cubs hit lefties well and Holland is below average. Should give up runs but Schwarber and Heyward out of the lineup today takes away a bit of pop. 10.5 just seems high for the current conditions but ultimately I don't want to mess with a Wrigley under when the wind is blowing out.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Record: 123-132 -7.84
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    @EddieInTheYard
    18s18 seconds ago

    #Rays have changed lineup card for tonight’s game. Hearing that they’ve traded Span and Colome. #orioles
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    5/26, will finish up card in AM:

    Leans: Braves +111, DBacks/A's u8 -107, Phillies -1.5 -101

    Arizona Diamondbacks +142

    Really leaning toward the under here as well but just going with the side for now. Buchholz is a solid pitcher when he's actually healthy and he seems to be in a good spot right now. Started the year late but threw a few dominant games in the minors and then was dominant in the opener. He'll be facing an Oakland team that has looked lost offensively ever since Crush Davis went on the DL. Oakland's offense has been streaky all year and now in a rut and without their best hitter I think Buchholz can have a good game. Arizona has an above average bullpen behind him. Mengden is going to be streaky this year and I'm sure I'll fade him later in the year but right now he's pitching extremely well. Arizona's offense has been lost for a while now and they have 2 good hitters out of the lineup. Oakland's pen can't be trusted. Ultimately someone seems destined to win this game 3-2 and I'll take +142 on a coin flip.

    Tigers -136

    My lines on the Tigers have been quite a bit off lately but winning money and really should be up a ton on their games if their bullpen didn't blow a big lead last time I played them. Liriano is a good pitcher and facing a White Sox team that doesn't hit lefties at all. CHW is down 4 regulars as well. Detroit hits lefties well and Hector Santiago hasn't been good in a few years. Chicago has a better bullpen but it's only a little bit better. No reason for Detroit to only be small favorites here at home after all that. Tigers win 5-2.
  • bluejakebluejake Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I sure hope you & the family enjoyed the vacation, now back to the grind.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    More 5/26:

    Marlins +139

    Chen is a solid pitcher who usually performs very well at home. Washington has all those injuries and hasn't hit lefties all that well. Seems like that might be enough to have a decent chance here. The Miami bullpen is obviously a concern but I'm hoping for the best in this pitcher-friendly park. Roark is a good pitcher for Washington but the Marlins' offense has been pretty solid lately. Just seems pretty even and the bullpen disadvantage isn't worth this many cents.

    Mets/Brewers u9 +100

    NYM has injuries to their starting lineup and aren't hitting well. Facing Anderson who dominated them earlier this year and last year. The Brewers' offense isn't hitting well either and they've been useless against lefties all year long. Vargas had the awful start to the year following the injury but he seems to be back on track now after a strong outing last trip to the mound. He's only an average lefty but Milwaukee hasn't hit average lefties at all really. Milwaukee has a strong pen, NYM's pen is a worry but I think both starters do well here and this total is a half run too high.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Gomez back for Rays, looks like Davidson will play for CHW so only down 3 regulars instead of 4.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Marte back from DL for Pirates.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Blue Jays starting Russel Martin at SS today for some reason. 1st ever start there for the catcher.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Jake T. wrote: »
    Gomez back for Rays, looks like Davidson will play for CHW so only down 3 regulars instead of 4.

    Davidson just got scratched for CHW.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Andrew Miller back on DL for Indians. RIP bullpen.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    5/27:

    Leans: Jays/Phillies u8, Mets/Brewers u9, Reds/Rockies o11.5

    Phillies -105

    Seems like this game could turn into a pitcher's duel but I think the home team is underpriced. Toronto isn't hitting much right now and Pivetta is looking like an ace in the making most starts. Toronto has a small bullpen edge but Philly's pen is pretty solid too. Happ is pitching pretty well but also prone to bad starts. Philly is a good team against lefties and I just think their offense is a little more in-sync. Philadelphia draws walks well and should drive up Happ's pitch count. Ultimately I think the Phillies should be slight favorites on a neutral field and have to take them at -105 at home. Let's say they win 4-3.

    Rangers -1.5 +140

    Hamels is pitching great right now and KC is down 2 guys in their lineup. Duda can't hit lefties so he's not important here but Cuthbert is good against them. KC might get a few runs but doubt they can keep up with Texas. Hammel is not a good pitcher and he was hit hard by this team twice last year. Even if he surprises and does well you still have that awful KC bullpen giving up runs late. Rangers win 7-3.

    Twins/Mariners u8 -105

    Berrios is a stud and the Mariners aren't doing much hitting with Cano and Dee out. Pitcher's park. Twins' pen is an issue but when Berrios is on his game he goes plenty deep to negate that. When he's on his game a complete game is always in play. Young guy is prone to having off nights but I just don't think Seattle has enough offensive firepower right now to get much off of him. Leake isn't anything special but Minnesota's offense hasn't looked right lately. Walks are strikeouts are okay but the team just isn't hitting the ball at all. Leake held this team to 2 runs over 5 innings earlier this year and should do something similar here. Mariners' pen is solid enough. Twins win 4-3.

    Only games I didn't cap were ARI @ OAK (pitching change just happened) and SD @ LAD (waiting on SD pitcher).
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Posey getting the night off for SF.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    0-4. Stinky day. Bullpens gave up runs on all 3 sides. Yuck.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    cold, you will warm up, no more vacations
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Jake T. wrote: »
    Posey getting the night off for SF.

    That's because his usual Sunday day off is a night game.

    It's a long season and you'll wind up where you're supposed to be just keep it going.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    @JohnSheaHey
    1m1 minute ago

    Bochy said there’s a good chance Posey will be back in lineup tomorrow in Colorado.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Segura passed his concussion test today so would guess he's back in there for Seattle tomorrow.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    5/28:

    Leans: Brewers +104, White Sox +178, Rockies -126, Giants/Rockies u11.5, Royals -111

    Twins/Royals u9 +100

    Going to try this and hope Lance Lynn is back to normal. He has struggled after the super late start to the year but looked slick in his last start. When he's at 100% he's an above average pitcher and this Kansas City lineup, despite hitting pretty well lately, doesn't have a ton of pop with Duda and Cuthbert out. Can't see them hitting a decent pitcher and I am leaning toward Lynn finally being in form. Junis is a future ace and pitching really well lately. Twins can't hit a thing. The big negative in this bet is obviously having 2 of the worst pens in baseball relieving these pitchers... but neither offense is scary and both starters are capable of going 6 or 7 good innings. 9 just seems too high and we'll just pray the pens don't give up too much late. Thinking there will only be 4 runs or so after 6 innings so hopefully that's enough.

    Dodgers -125
    Phillies/Dodgers o8 -108


    I like Brock Stewart as a pitcher and with Philly not hitting well right now I think he'll put in some quality innings. For whatever reason the Dodgers don't let him go past 5 or so innings so this iffy Dodgers' pen might give up a late run or 2 to help the over but I don't think it will cost them the game. The main reason I like both of these players is that Velasquez for the Phillies has issues with 2 things; control and the long ball. The Dodgers are starting to hit for a ton of power and they draw walks really well. LAD isn't getting as many hits as I'd like but they seem to match up really well against Velasquez. Both starters should leave early with Stewart having more success. Dodgers win 6-3.

    6 or 7 games left to cap but I'm waiting on pitchers. Waiting on Mookie Betts status before capping Boston game.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Now Russell Martin is making his 1st career start in LF after making his 1st career start at SS the game before. What the heck are the Jays doing?
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Leans: Angels/Tigers u9.5

    Blue Jays +176
    Jays/Red Sox u9 -102


    Easy play on the total for me here. Aaron Sanchez has pitched pretty well against Boston twice this year already despite not having his best stuff and it just kind of feels like he can only improve as the season goes on. He's had control issues but Boston still hasn't done that well against him. Today the Red Sox don't have Betts or Pedroia in the lineup and also released Hanley. Just doesn't look as fierce of a lineup as normal... then you have the red hot David Price going up against a Blue Jays team in a hitting slump. The one saving grace for Toronto is that they've hit for good power against lefties lately and Price gives up some HRs. This feels like a game where the starters each give up 2 or 3 runs and the bullpens should be sturdy. Someone wins 4-3.

    Nats/Orioles u9 -105

    Orioles not hitting lately, Nats not hitting lately. Trumbo is back for the O's but they just aren't hitting much lately. Baltimore is a team that relies on the HR ball to score and Gio isn't giving up any long balls. Cobb is obviously a worry as he's been very inconsistent after the late start to the year but I think he does well here. Washington's lineup is missing a few bats and they should aren't as scary as they would be at full strength. Cobb had put together 4 pretty good starts before getting rocked last time out and I think he'll have another solid one here. Nats win 4-3.

    Tigers +155

    Liked the under here as well but only feel like investing 1-unit in this game. The Angels don't hit lefties well and there is a chance they could be without Upton and Ohtani which will make their lineup even weaker. Boyd is pitching like an ace and a guy I like a lot. The big worry is that he's coming off an oblique injury in his last start but it sounds more like a spasm than something serious. It's sketchy but he should be okay. Skaggs has pitched well this year but he's a guy that I have on a list of people who are probably overdue for a regression. The Tigers are one of the better teams in baseball at hitting lefties. Neither bullpen is particularly trustworthy but FWIW the Tigers' pen has been better this year. Just can't see the home team being this big of an underdog. Tigers win 4-3, although I'm sure their pen will rip my heart out again.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Segura just got scratched for M's. Was in lineup but had to pass concussion test 1st, apparently didn't.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Record: 124-138 -13.25

    Stinky, still think I can turn a profit though.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Dexter Fowler almost definitely out tomorrow. Hearing he'll probably go on DL. Cards.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    5/29:

    Leans: White Sox/Indians u9.5, Orioles +104, Orioles/Nats u9.5, Cubs/Pirates o8, Marlins +140 (might end up playing this), Rangers/Mariners o8.5 -105, Phillies +145

    Yankees +112

    I might be the biggest Charlie Morton fan out there but this isn't a good matchup for him. He struggled his last few times pitching in Yankee Stadium and he's been pitching way over his skill level thus far this year. Morton has drawn a pretty easy slate of starts and I just think he'll give up some runs here. I'm not sure what's wrong with CC lately but he'll probably give up some runs as well against a hot Astros squad. 2 of the best pens in baseball... slight edge to NYY but only worth a couple cents. Ultimately I don't particularly trust either starter so taking the home team at +112 makes some sense.

    Laying off the Nats/Orioles game but like both the leans I posted above. Hellickson left his last start with blister issues and is pitching over his head anyway so I'd like to think Baltimore can get some runs off of him. Washington isn't hitting too much with all their injuries and Bundy has been pitching well lately. Ultimately decided to lay off as both lines moved against me. Tough to say where Hellickson is at and it doesn't take much to get outs against the Orioles most days. 9.5 seems high for this game unless Hellickson is hurt... but the line move on the Nats just confused me, and coupled with the move on the o9.5 I am now thinking Bundy might have a rough start for whatever reason. Will just watch this one and see how it plays out. I might be investing too much in the early line moves but just didn't feel confident here.

    Tigers +120

    Apparently I'm just going to take the Tigers about every day right now. Just feel like the odds makers aren't giving them enough credit. Miggy seems more probable than doubtful to make his return and the Detroit lineup, which has had injury issues, should be at full strength for once. Tropeano is a solid starter but not elite. Detroit hitting okay recently... I worry about them vs. righties but they should get a few runs here. Fulmer is the better pitcher in this matchup... not by a ton but I think he's better. Neither starter goes particularly deep in games so pens will decide this one a bit. Detroit's pen has been better statistically, although I'd give a slight edge to LAA in that category. Ultimately the home team has a slight edge in starting pitching so they shouldn't be +120. Ohtani out for LAA as well only helps Detroit.

    Brewers -101

    This one doesn't make a ton of sense to me. I rate these starting pitchers at around the same... both average pitchers... capable but nothing special. Wacha has faced a super easy schedule this year and has been hit hard in every road game that wasn't against the stinky Padres in Petco. His stats are inflated. Brewers and Cards have been hitting about the same but St. Louis is without deJong here and almost certainly without Fowler too. Milwaukee is at home and has a nice bullpen edge. In what world should this team only be -101? Brewers win 5-4.

    Royals +115
    Twins/Royals u9 -115


    Thought long and hard about making the Royals a 2-unit bet but I just can't trust that pen. Minnesota's pen is also trash but not quite as much trash (maybe). The Twins are below average against lefties and aren't hitting anything right now. They are in a big hitting slump and Duffy should pitch an excellent game and will hopefully go deep enough where the pen doesn't get much of a chance to give the game away. Minnesota is w/o Joe Mauer as well. I just can't see the Twins doing much scoring against Duffy. KC is without 2 of their better power hitters but I think there is enough here to get this bet across. Gibson is a average, possibly below average, pitcher and should give up a few runs which is really all we might need. The pens are obviously scary but I think the Royals will be leading 3-1 or so after 6 innings and that should give us a nice head start on both bets.

    Rangers +152

    Neither of these starting pitchers is worth trusting. Felix can't get outs anymore and Texas has been hitting pretty well. Granted, those starts came at home and I'm a bit worried about how it will translate but Felix hasn't even pitched well at home so he should give up some runs. He's had issues with the Rangers these past few years too. Bibens-Dirkx has been below average in the minors for years but he has been strong in 2 of his 3 road starts over the last 2 years. It's tough to pitch in Texas so I'm thinking he can give us a decent shot. He's the type of guy who will at least put in innings while giving up some runs and not getting killed. Sturdy but not pretty. Seattle is without Gordon and Cano, while Segura is iffy. That's some decent firepower out of the lineup and I'm hoping Bibens-Dirkx will enjoy pitching in park that caters to hitters. The Mariners have the slight pen advantage but it's close. Ultimately a slight pen edge and home field isn't worth 62 cents so try the dog. Almost took the o8.5 here as well but laid off.

    Still waiting on pitchers in NYM @ STL and TB @ OAK, waiting to cap TOR @ BOS (Betts injury) and SF @ COL (Posey injury).
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Rockies -1.5 +135

    Freeland is due for a stinker and the Giants should score some runs here, but it's tough to think that the Giants can outscore Colorado. Samardzija is a below average pitcher and got absolutely smoked his last 2 tries at Coors. Additionally the Rockies have a small bullpen advantage. I doubt Freeland pitches that well and I just kinda doubt it will matter. Rockies win 8-5.
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