Are you suggesting that previous results are always an indication of future results ? I could give you 50,000 examples to the contrary but would hate to disrupt whatever it is you tell yourself to help you sleep at night.
Your " sarcastic " comment is the most idiotic thing I have ever read on this board. Everyone in this forum is now dumber for having read it. I award you no points and may god have mercy on your soul.
So at what point do you decide that you've probably had enough? Just curious what others think. Im a rec guy that may take it a little more serious than the average rec guy. I solely follow the paid guys from this site. How long/much would you have to be down before you kinda just toss your hands in the air and walk away?
Not calling anyone out and I of course fully understand there is variance, my decision, etc.
So at what point do you decide that you've probably had enough? Just curious what others think. Im a rec guy that may take it a little more serious than the average rec guy. I solely follow the paid guys from this site. How long/much would you have to be down before you kinda just toss your hands in the air and walk away?
Not calling anyone out and I of course fully understand there is variance, my decision, etc.
Honestly, if you are worried at this point, you shouldn't be sports trading in any serious fashion. Not saying that to be mean, I'm just being honest with you.
Is it the correct decision to stop trading based on BG's recommendations at this point? Absolutely not.
Could BG's results get a lot worse before they get better? Absolutely.
And thus: If you are already concerned w/ this stretch of negative variance, will you probably let emotions take a hold of you w/ a continuation of this stretch and future stretches of negative variance this MLB season; making even larger mistakes with your BR? Most likely.
Again, I want people here to trade properly with a long term mindset and thus I try to encourage. But it continues to become apparent that the short-term mindset dominates the majority of traders. Mental toughness is a much underrated asset amongst sports traders.
Honestly, if you are worried at this point, you shouldn't be sports trading in any serious fashion. Not saying that to be mean, I'm just being honest with you.
Is it the correct decision to stop trading based on BG's recommendations at this point? Absolutely not.
Could BG's results get a lot worse before they get better? Absolutely.
And thus: If you are already concerned w/ this stretch of negative variance, will you probably let emotions take a hold of you w/ a continuation of this stretch and future stretches of negative variance this MLB season; making even larger mistakes with your BR? Most likely.
Again, I want people here to trade properly with a long term mindset and thus I try to encourage. But it continues to become apparent that the short-term mindset dominates the majority of traders. Mental toughness is a much underrated asset amongst sports traders.
You keep repeating the same stuff. I think it would be a mistake to continue with the same unit size/confidence as everyone had at the beginning of the season when one poster when asked how much movement they anticipated on the plays replied "a lot". There has been very little market agreement and the baseball market is very much tougher then it was even 2 years ago.
You keep repeating the same stuff. I think it would be a mistake to continue with the same unit size/confidence as everyone had at the beginning of the season when one poster when asked how much movement they anticipated on the plays replied "a lot". There has been very little market agreement and the baseball market is very much tougher then it was even 2 years ago.
That was me and well said. The market agreement has really been lacking as opposed to what I anticipated. I figured he'd easily be beating no-vig closers on consistent basis and that just hasn't been the case. That's not to say things won't pick up as the year progresses.
Also as you alluded to, betting on baseball has had a major spike in popularity over the last several years.
That was me and well said. The market agreement has really been lacking as opposed to what I anticipated. I figured he'd easily be beating no-vig closers on consistent basis and that just hasn't been the case. That's not to say things won't pick up as the year progresses.
Also as you alluded to, betting on baseball has had a major spike in popularity over the last several years.
And to be clear I'm not advocating giving up, but to just turn a blind eye and keep plowing forward as if everything is rosy as black bull suggests is a mistake imo
but to just turn a blind eye and keep plowing forward as if everything is rosy as black bull suggests is a mistake imo
Sometimes I wonder if reading comprehension needs to be further emphasized in schools...
Where did I say to turn a blind eye? I said make decisions based on his overall body of work and not some small sample of 69 games. You disagree with that?
And to be clear I'm not advocating giving up, but to just turn a blind eye and keep plowing forward as if everything is rosy as black bull suggests is a mistake imo
I'd guess the opposite really. Pinny's limits were 3x as much 2 years ago.
Pinny also doesn't deal CBB totals on all games anymore and they don't have the same presence as a whole in college markets. Does that mean betting on college sports is less popular than it was 2 years ago?
You keep repeating the same stuff. I think it would be a mistake to continue with the same unit size/confidence as everyone had at the beginning of the season when one poster when asked how much movement they anticipated on the plays replied "a lot". There has been very little market agreement and the baseball market is very much tougher then it was even 2 years ago.
Pinny also doesn't deal CBB totals on all games anymore and they don't have the same presence as a whole in college markets. Does that mean betting on college sports is less popular than it was 2 years ago?
No certainly not, but what makes you think it's more popular? I know quite a few originators that aren't playing anymore and at a square level postup is dead, vegas sucks, etc. I'd be surprised is volume wasnt way down.
No certainly not, but what makes you think it's more popular? I know quite a few originators that aren't playing anymore and at a square level postup is dead, vegas sucks, etc. I'd be surprised is volume wasnt way down.
You certainly know this part of this industry more than I do, but to me it seems more people that know what they are doing have been attacking the baseball market a lot more. Maybe it's that less squares are betting, so the big movers stick out more. If that's the case, BG should have no problem moving lines quite a bit, especially if limits are 3x less than they were a few years ago, when he was still having great success. From what I can tell most people who have been around this industry for a long time having done it beating college sports or bases.
Oh certainly I agree -- I was actually editing my post to add something on those lines. Sharp money dwarfs square money now, a function probably of there being more sharps and the legalities that removed most square money from the market.
BG was crushing closing lines 2 years ago with those big pinny limits (I think mostly putting out overnights though those limits were the same as full limits now). And I don't think any of that was from people betting them either, they didn't move instantly. Last year he didn't do nearly as well against close and mentioned he wasn't expecting too -- leading me to believe that some sharps etc are not still playing. Will see how it goes.= the rest of the season.
(I think mostly putting out overnights though those limits were the same as full limits now).
FWIW, I'd be releasing a lot more plays overnight if I were BG. It doesn't seem like overnight limits are going to prevent any followers from getting their money down.
FWIW, I'd be releasing a lot more plays overnight if I were BG. It doesn't seem like overnight limits are going to prevent any followers from getting their money down.
Disagree here. Maybe offscreens/locals have higher overnight limits (not my world), but some post-ups have 1/5 or 1/4 limits and BM/CRIS has 20-cent lines.
Disagree here. Maybe offscreens/locals have higher overnight limits (not my world), but some post-ups have 1/5 or 1/4 limits and BM/CRIS has 20-cent lines.
I always have a brain fart and forget Cris 20-cent line because I don't do sides. But do you think overnight MLB limits (even with Cris out of the picture) differ much than say CBB limits early in the am?
Are you seeing sharper openers, or simply that anything soft gets taken out overnight?
No I don't think the openers are to much better although still a little sharper I think then 2-3 years ago. More that pretty much every game gets bet the right way. I'm not saying the market is unbeatable or anything but I do think its tougher then it was.
I always have a brain fart and forget Cris 20-cent line because I don't do sides. But do you think overnight MLB limits (even with Cris out of the picture) differ much than say CBB limits early in the am?
Yes. The same books with fractional overnight limits I had in mind go to full limits in the AM for all daily sports.
Could just be my experience with the books I use of course, but that's all I can speak to.
Yes. The same books with fractional overnight limits I had in mind go to full limits in the AM for all daily sports.
Could just be my experience with the books I use of course, but that's all I can speak to.
Got ya... I guess I was thinking since MLB has about twice the limits of CBB on game day that you'd be able to get just as much down on MLB overnight as opposed to CBB on game day . But yeah Cris being out of the picture is certainly a major factor I failed to account for.
Got ya... I guess I was thinking since MLB has about twice the limits of CBB on game day that you'd be able to get just as much down on MLB overnight as opposed to CBB on game day . But yeah Cris being out of the picture is certainly a major factor I failed to account for.
There's also the issue of dealing with cut limits, not full limits, making things even worse, even for low rollers like me. If I had full limits, it might be a different story.
Joseph Ensign Granville (August 20, 1923 – September 7, 2013), often called Joe Granville, was a financial writer [1] and investment speaker. He popularized [2] the use of "on balance volume", a technique of technical analysis that attempts to predict future prices of stocks, commodities, and other financial assets traded on financial markets for which historical price and volume information is available.[3]
Granville is probably best known for his bearish market calls during the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, when he claimed that the stock market was headed for imminent collapse. His overall track record, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest, is very poor.
The Granville Market Letter "is at the bottom of the Hulbert Financial Digest's rankings for performance over the past 25 years - having produced average losses of more than 20 percent per year on an annualized basis." [4]
Granville was known as a great showman [5] who would emerge from a coffin at an investment conference, or appear to walk across water (at a swimming pool) when meeting clients. According to Robert Shiller in his book Irrational Exuberance[6]
His investment seminars were bizarre extravaganzas, sometimes featuring a trained chimpanzee would could play Granville's theme song "The Bagholder's Blues," on piano. He once showed up at an investment seminar dressed as Moses, wearing a crown and carrying tablets. Granville made extravagant claims about his forecasting ability. He said he could predict earthquakes and once claimed to have predicted six of the past seven major world quakes. He was quoted by TIME Magazine as saying "I don't think that I will ever make a serious mistake in the stock market for the rest of my life," and he predicted that he would win the Nobel Prize in economics.
Shiller states that Granville's market calls were said by major media sources to have caused large moves in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on April 22, 1980 (+4.05%) and on January 6, 1981.
He died at the age of 90 in 2013 at a Kansas City, Missouri hospice, of pneumonia.[7]
Got ya... I guess I was thinking since MLB has about twice the limits of CBB on game day that you'd be able to get just as much down on MLB overnight as opposed to CBB on game day . But yeah Cris being out of the picture is certainly a major factor I failed to account for.
The overnight market for mlb actually kind of sucks IMO. Considering the game day limits it seems crazy to me. I'm speaking only of post up shops offshore. When BG releases an overnight I usually have one out(BetOnline) and they move wicked fast.
Comments
LOL, good to see you back Rip007
Not calling anyone out and I of course fully understand there is variance, my decision, etc.
We've also lost 5 games that were over 95% to win given current live lines with none winning going the other way.
Honestly, if you are worried at this point, you shouldn't be sports trading in any serious fashion. Not saying that to be mean, I'm just being honest with you.
Is it the correct decision to stop trading based on BG's recommendations at this point? Absolutely not.
Could BG's results get a lot worse before they get better? Absolutely.
And thus: If you are already concerned w/ this stretch of negative variance, will you probably let emotions take a hold of you w/ a continuation of this stretch and future stretches of negative variance this MLB season; making even larger mistakes with your BR? Most likely.
Again, I want people here to trade properly with a long term mindset and thus I try to encourage. But it continues to become apparent that the short-term mindset dominates the majority of traders. Mental toughness is a much underrated asset amongst sports traders.
You keep repeating the same stuff. I think it would be a mistake to continue with the same unit size/confidence as everyone had at the beginning of the season when one poster when asked how much movement they anticipated on the plays replied "a lot". There has been very little market agreement and the baseball market is very much tougher then it was even 2 years ago.
That was me and well said. The market agreement has really been lacking as opposed to what I anticipated. I figured he'd easily be beating no-vig closers on consistent basis and that just hasn't been the case. That's not to say things won't pick up as the year progresses.
Also as you alluded to, betting on baseball has had a major spike in popularity over the last several years.
We are also 5-0 (I think) in games that we've lost to the close by 1.5% or more.
And to be clear I'm not advocating giving up, but to just turn a blind eye and keep plowing forward as if everything is rosy as black bull suggests is a mistake imo
Sometimes I wonder if reading comprehension needs to be further emphasized in schools...
Where did I say to turn a blind eye? I said make decisions based on his overall body of work and not some small sample of 69 games. You disagree with that?
Right. I agree.
Based on what are you basing this?
I'd guess the opposite really. Pinny's limits were 3x as much 2 years ago.
Pinny also doesn't deal CBB totals on all games anymore and they don't have the same presence as a whole in college markets. Does that mean betting on college sports is less popular than it was 2 years ago?
No certainly not, but what makes you think it's more popular? I know quite a few originators that aren't playing anymore and at a square level postup is dead, vegas sucks, etc. I'd be surprised is volume wasnt way down.
You certainly know this part of this industry more than I do, but to me it seems more people that know what they are doing have been attacking the baseball market a lot more. Maybe it's that less squares are betting, so the big movers stick out more. If that's the case, BG should have no problem moving lines quite a bit, especially if limits are 3x less than they were a few years ago, when he was still having great success. From what I can tell most people who have been around this industry for a long time having done it beating college sports or bases.
Based on my own expirience.
BG was crushing closing lines 2 years ago with those big pinny limits (I think mostly putting out overnights though those limits were the same as full limits now). And I don't think any of that was from people betting them either, they didn't move instantly. Last year he didn't do nearly as well against close and mentioned he wasn't expecting too -- leading me to believe that some sharps etc are not still playing. Will see how it goes.= the rest of the season.
Are you seeing sharper openers, or simply that anything soft gets taken out overnight?
FWIW, I'd be releasing a lot more plays overnight if I were BG. It doesn't seem like overnight limits are going to prevent any followers from getting their money down.
Great discussion though guys....good shit.
Disagree here. Maybe offscreens/locals have higher overnight limits (not my world), but some post-ups have 1/5 or 1/4 limits and BM/CRIS has 20-cent lines.
I always have a brain fart and forget Cris 20-cent line because I don't do sides. But do you think overnight MLB limits (even with Cris out of the picture) differ much than say CBB limits early in the am?
No I don't think the openers are to much better although still a little sharper I think then 2-3 years ago. More that pretty much every game gets bet the right way. I'm not saying the market is unbeatable or anything but I do think its tougher then it was.
Yes. The same books with fractional overnight limits I had in mind go to full limits in the AM for all daily sports.
Could just be my experience with the books I use of course, but that's all I can speak to.
Got ya... I guess I was thinking since MLB has about twice the limits of CBB on game day that you'd be able to get just as much down on MLB overnight as opposed to CBB on game day . But yeah Cris being out of the picture is certainly a major factor I failed to account for.
There's also the issue of dealing with cut limits, not full limits, making things even worse, even for low rollers like me. If I had full limits, it might be a different story.
The Golfer is leading the protest with the Joe Granville flag. I'd stay away.
Granville is probably best known for his bearish market calls during the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, when he claimed that the stock market was headed for imminent collapse. His overall track record, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest, is very poor.
The Granville Market Letter "is at the bottom of the Hulbert Financial Digest's rankings for performance over the past 25 years - having produced average losses of more than 20 percent per year on an annualized basis." [4]
Granville was known as a great showman [5] who would emerge from a coffin at an investment conference, or appear to walk across water (at a swimming pool) when meeting clients. According to Robert Shiller in his book Irrational Exuberance[6]
His investment seminars were bizarre extravaganzas, sometimes featuring a trained chimpanzee would could play Granville's theme song "The Bagholder's Blues," on piano. He once showed up at an investment seminar dressed as Moses, wearing a crown and carrying tablets. Granville made extravagant claims about his forecasting ability. He said he could predict earthquakes and once claimed to have predicted six of the past seven major world quakes. He was quoted by TIME Magazine as saying "I don't think that I will ever make a serious mistake in the stock market for the rest of my life," and he predicted that he would win the Nobel Prize in economics.
Shiller states that Granville's market calls were said by major media sources to have caused large moves in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on April 22, 1980 (+4.05%) and on January 6, 1981.
He died at the age of 90 in 2013 at a Kansas City, Missouri hospice, of pneumonia.[7]
The overnight market for mlb actually kind of sucks IMO. Considering the game day limits it seems crazy to me. I'm speaking only of post up shops offshore. When BG releases an overnight I usually have one out(BetOnline) and they move wicked fast.