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  • baseRunnerbaseRunner Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    buythehook wrote: »
    Lmaoooo

    That video just made my night...wow..classic. I couldn't stop thinking about golfer in this video.


    Classic golfer.
  • pettifoggerpettifogger Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    baseRunner wrote: »
    Golfer here's another one. Don't scroll ahead at all though, every second of it is important.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbcctWbC8Q0

    Sweet Jesus I could only handle 30 seconds.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Hilarious!!!
    Thnx BR!!

    "The escape button is gone, the escape button is gone!!".....LOL ...LOL..LOL
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Sweet Jesus I could only handle 30 seconds.

    In the sidebar, there's the same vid but with closed captioning.
  • baseRunnerbaseRunner Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Obi One wrote: »
    Hilarious!!!
    Thnx BR!!

    "The escape button is gone, the escape button is gone!!".....LOL ...LOL..LOL

    Is that what he's saying? I could have sworn it was: "Mother- f$#%king Doubront! Mother- f$#%king Doubront! Terrible, awful f$%&cking pick! COCKASSSHITDICKFUCKMOTHER-PPFFFFFFFF"
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Golfer, whatever you do don't be dipping into that inheritance money
  • ugadawgs7769ugadawgs7769 Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Sorry golfer, my fault. Apparently I am the mush.

    Sixth Sense- I started subscribing two years ago
    Stevie- Bought everything this year and down overall on last 600 or so plays. I think I started playing him with his baseball last year.
    And now BG- He doesnt know it but now that I have purchased he doesnt stand a chance.

    So sorry golfer, get ready for a summer that takes 10 years off your life.

    Good Luck
  • jakenhljakenhl Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Sorry golfer, my fault. Apparently I am the mush.

    Sixth Sense- I started subscribing two years ago
    Stevie- Bought everything this year and down overall on last 600 or so plays. I think I started playing him with his baseball last year.
    And now BG- He doesnt know it but now that I have purchased he doesnt stand a chance.

    So sorry golfer, get ready for a summer that takes 10 years off your life.

    Good Luck
    I hope you can take comfort in these words by Edward himself.

    "Sixth Sense has gone 146-149 since our endorsement. Not a shocking result for anyone in that market playing entirely WA numbers and mostly late in week.

    SY and BG are obviously both way up. "

    Best of luck going forward, NFL starts soon.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    149 x 1100 = -163,900
    146x 1000= +146.000

    Assuming you where betting a dime per game your only down 17,900 over 4 years. Not bad entertainment value.
    I know people that spend that per NFL season just to sit on the 50 yd line :)
  • ugadawgs7769ugadawgs7769 Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    jakenhl wrote: »
    I hope you can take comfort in these words by Edward himself.

    "Sixth Sense has gone 146-149 since our endorsement. Not a shocking result for anyone in that market playing entirely WA numbers and mostly late in week.

    SY and BG are obviously both way up. "

    Best of luck going forward, NFL starts soon.


    Yeah, I started playing in 2012 so its a little worse. 2012 was exceptionally bad if you followed the recommended 3% per play that Kellen recommended.

    The other guys, who knows, I just have a gift. Not bitter, I knew the risk and I dont do this for a living so while I of course would love to win, not going to hurt me/my family when they dont(which seems to be the case when I purchase a new guy)

    Oh well, good luck going forward.
  • BigKahunaBigKahuna Banned
    edited April 2014
    baseRunner wrote: »
    Golfer here's another one. Don't scroll ahead at all though, every second of it is important.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbcctWbC8Q0

    That was fricking hilarious. Oh shit laughing so hard I am crying.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Ronbets wrote: »
    If impatient scroll to the 8minute mark. You'll find some common ground.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPIP8G1cVVA

    Great Movie, remember it like it was yesterday.
  • blackbullblackbull Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Sorry golfer, my fault. Apparently I am the mush.

    Sixth Sense- I started subscribing two years ago
    Stevie- Bought everything this year and down overall on last 600 or so plays. I think I started playing him with his baseball last year.
    And now BG- He doesnt know it but now that I have purchased he doesnt stand a chance.

    So sorry golfer, get ready for a summer that takes 10 years off your life.

    Good Luck

    Get ready to start winning my man. Of course, there are no guarantees in anything, but BG is an advantage player and that advantage will most likely show up over the course of this MLB season in the form of an overall profit. Sounds like you are a vet so just manage that BR properly and you should have a nice profit at the end of the year. I know it must be frustrating to have followed a few reputed advantage players (Stevie Y, who I most certainly consider to be an advantage player and whom I have much respect for) who have performed below normal levels lately, but that's the nature of trading. We deal in probabilities and so bad stretches (negative variance) come with the territory. Go do a bunch of 100 toss trials with flipping a coin. You may be surprised how wild that negative variance can run in the short term with a few of those trial sets. But long term? -> It will regress towards expectation (which is of course 50% for an honest coin) and so will the results of BG's plays. (I.E. his results going forwards will regress to his expected win % which is quite impressive and evidenced by an impressive record over a large sample of MLB trades.

    I recommend that you treat this MLB season with BG as though you were a robot: See BG trade, put in BG trade. & then proceed with your life as normal. Don't score watch, obsess over small samples of games, etc. Just focus on executing and perfecting the process and eventually...the BR will grow ;)

    The naive focus on perfecting the results, the wise focus on perfecting the process. All you need to do is focus on risking the appropriate amount of your BR on each of BG's trade recommendations as quickly as possible.

    BOL


    P.S. And just to add one more thing: You're not a mush. You're not a jinx. Make the right decisions and you will win long term!
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited April 2014
    blackbull wrote: »
    You may be surprised how wild that negative variance can run in the short term with a few of those trial sets.

    It's kind of you to take the time to post all that, which is of course valid, but Golfer has already stated he "doesn't have time for variance."
    blackbull wrote: »
    I recommend that you treat this MLB season with BG as though you were a robot: See BG trade, put in BG trade. & then proceed with your life as normal. Don't score watch, obsess over small samples of games, etc.

    It's also pretty clear to me that Golfer is unable to handle his betting this way, veteran or not.

    While I agree with everything you wrote, factoring in the psychological aspects Golfer has demonstrated, I stand by my original suggestion that he simply take the summer off unless he finds a way to make some serious changes in his behavior/outlook that reflect what you posted.
  • munson15munson15 Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Great post, Bull, thanks.
  • blackbullblackbull Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    munson15 wrote: »
    Great post, Bull, thanks.

    You're welcome big man!
  • BigKahunaBigKahuna Banned
    edited April 2014
    Sorry golfer, my fault. Apparently I am the mush.

    Sixth Sense- I started subscribing two years ago
    Stevie- Bought everything this year and down overall on last 600 or so plays. I think I started playing him with his baseball last year.
    And now BG- He doesnt know it but now that I have purchased he doesnt stand a chance.

    So sorry golfer, get ready for a summer that takes 10 years off your life.

    Good Luck
    It's unlucky to be superstitious. :laugh:
  • golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    At what point is it not variance?
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    golfer1000 wrote: »
    At what point is it not variance?

    after about 50,000 plays
  • golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    durito wrote: »
    after about 50,000 plays

    Lol. I dont think many of us can last after about July at this rate.

    He keeps losing like this it's actually gonna take money out of Ed's pocket when no one has any money left in August to buy football lol
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    durito wrote: »
    after about 50,000 plays

    LOL by that time w'll all be dead and buried or in huge debt
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Are you not betting .5%-1% of your roll on these plays? At worst you should be down 10%
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    golfer1000 wrote: »
    At what point is it not variance?

    Golfer,
    If BG had started out at +20 units on the season, hitting 80% of his plays at an average of -120 odds. At what point would you have thought: 'This is way too good to be true, it HAS to be positive variance, you know what, I'll stop betting his plays, because he HAS to regress.'
  • blackbullblackbull Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    durito wrote: »
    Are you not betting .5%-1% of your roll on these plays? At worst you should be down 10%

    These were my thoughts as well. Very good lesson right now on money management. BG is a world class trader, but even he is not immune to brutal stretches of negative variance. Every pro here has had MUCH WORSE stretches than he is experiencing right now with his MLB.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    I had two worse days this month.
  • procapprocap Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Yeah 28-35 is nothing... I had several stretches much worse than that in CBB this year. I think my worse was 3-17. Still ended at +2.40u on the season. It happens... just sucks it's happening at the beginning of the year in BG's inaugural season.
  • lilylily Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    durito wrote: »
    Are you not betting .5%-1% of your roll on these plays? At worst you should be down 10%
    To justify seasonal package one should be playing 500 per game or so ? at .5%-1% you are talking 50k to 100 k roll..how many non pros have that kind of BR? Just saying and I am not disagreeing with your %s
  • procapprocap Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    lily wrote: »
    To justify seasonal package one should be playing 500 per game or so ? at .5%-1% you are talking 50k to 100 k roll..how many non pros have that kind of BR? Just saying and I am not disagreeing with your %s

    I definitely get the point you are trying to make. But to be fair, BG, like RAS, has the below posted on his website.

    "This service is targeted towards sophisticated/professional bettors with sufficient bankrolls to justify the cost of the service. Please make sure you have the necessary money management skills, discipline, time and betting outs to successfully utilize the service. Past results are no guarantee of future results, and short term results will vary."
  • golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    I bought the first month and it cost 400$. Wanted to get my feet wet and with this being his first season I didn't know exactly what to expect from a release standpoint, line movement, etc. I am betting 400$ per play. My subscription runs up on Friday.
  • lilylily Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    I agree..was trying to make the point without calling Golfer or any others out..clearly this isnt for recreational gamblers , both BG and RAS make it clear.
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