The overnight market for mlb actually kind of sucks IMO. Considering the game day limits it seems crazy to me. I'm speaking only of post up shops offshore. When BG releases an overnight I usually have one out(BetOnline) and they move wicked fast.
I take back what I said then about more overnight releases then lol. I guess U.S. subscribers are pretty limited... Cris just needs to get their heads out of their asses and start dealing a 10-cent line.
The overnight market for mlb actually kind of sucks IMO. Considering the game day limits it seems crazy to me. I'm speaking only of post up shops offshore. When BG releases an overnight I usually have one out(BetOnline) and they move wicked fast.
Ironically i can only get the released line for overnight betting. Game day lines i am no where close to getting.
Honestly, if you are worried at this point, you shouldn't be sports trading in any serious fashion. Not saying that to be mean, I'm just being honest with you.
Is it the correct decision to stop trading based on BG's recommendations at this point? Absolutely not.
Could BG's results get a lot worse before they get better? Absolutely.
And thus: If you are already concerned w/ this stretch of negative variance, will you probably let emotions take a hold of you w/ a continuation of this stretch and future stretches of negative variance this MLB season; making even larger mistakes with your BR? Most likely.
Again, I want people here to trade properly with a long term mindset and thus I try to encourage. But it continues to become apparent that the short-term mindset dominates the majority of traders. Mental toughness is a much underrated asset amongst sports traders.
Not worried and was not even specifically talking about BG. While I am the first to admit Im a recreational player my BR is seperate from everything else living expense related so if I lost it all my life would not be affected other than I would at some point have to carve out an additional bankroll to start over again.
My question was not should I stop following xyz, but rather at what point going forward does there current record have more relevance than the previous body of work. How do you evaluate whether to continue to follow or pass?
Not worried and was not even specifically talking about BG. While I am the first to admit Im a recreational player my BR is seperate from everything else living expense related so if I lost it all my life would not be affected other than I would at some point have to carve out an additional bankroll to start over again.
My question was not should I stop following xyz, but rather at what point going forward does there current record have more relevance than the previous body of work. How do you evaluate whether to continue to follow or pass?
Thanks for response and good luck
Good question my man. What you want to do is treat it like a scientific trial. Take the adjusted win % and test it for statistical significance. Take the CLV, remold it into a win% and test the statistical significance. Take the action points, remold it into a win % and test the statistical significance. ETC.
You just want to find out: How likely is it that this capper's success was produced by randomness? Because if it is highly unlikely (and that is another threshold of risk to be calculated and decided upon by the individual trader) that his/her success is random, then it is highly likely that it was produced by skill. And if it is highly likely that the results are a product of skill, then it is highly likely that such profitable results will continue for the foreseeable future.
And it is important to note that the market does evolve, past edges are absorbed, and thus testing must be a perpetual process. HOWEVER, much too frequently: small insignificant samples of recent results are given far too much credence.
Rather have him focus on handicapping than dealing with people who are unhappy after barely a full month
I could and should do both. I am going to skip the negative variance and bad breaks talk, and rather focus on outlook.
I have been doing this for quite some time with success I can say I am proud of. My process is as sound as it always has been. Results however, have been horrible. Like when I started poorly in baseball last year and college basketball earlier this year, I would like to ask for more time again before judgement is made. I don't think those that were patient then and continued to follow got hurt doing so. I don't think those that take such advice this time will either.
Year to date results plays just a minor role on my outlook of the season going forward. My attention is more focused on market conditions and process (notice how I left line confirm out). Out of the gates, the screen has been unappealing. Openers have been slightly more efficient, volatility has been down, moves have been more one-directional than recent years, and a lot of equity has been picked off on the overnight. Having said that, I have seen unappealing conditions that ended up being transitory in the past, and and the last few days are pointing towards that possibly being the case again.
The one positive regarding the poor start is that it is less concerning when it occurs early in the season when players have the tendency to deviate more from fundamental form. Discounting error is more likely to reverse course. Still a long season left. I am confident things will turn.
What is the minimum estimated % edge you are firing on these plays for the service, and what was the estimated edge last year (and maybe prior years) for posting? ... or an estimate for last year if you didn't have a hard fast rule. While it's always best to get every bet if it is going to be +EV at all, I think some overbetting might be possible for people if they were accustomed to you posting less plays, but higher edge in the past. You also might have covered this, but honestly I didn't read through all the bitching in this thread.
And I forgot.. to add on I might suggest a rating system for the plays 1 1.5 2 etc to help convey the edge on the play for wager sizing and in case line moves slightly. RAS has most 1 unit plays, but honestly those plays are usually so strong that 1 unit means.. bet big. 1.5+ means bet your balls off. On a MLB card with 5-6 plays the edge will vary quite a bit
And sorry for the triple post.. couldn't edit late. But I saw the note attached to the last release, and I didn't want to insinuate that you were adding plays lately to play catch up. I agree that the card today had more lines that were off from my "preseason" ratings than any card to date. GL
I know it's been a tough start for BG, but my biggest issue so far has been the playing of big favorites. Does anyone else have any issues with this?
I believe BG will turn it around, but laying a lot of juice is killing me.
I can't understand that either. Why such a high ratio of Favs compared to Dogs?
Becket has to stop this guy is crippled. I know the models don't show it, but trust me he's crippled
I have a problem with that also and mentioned it last year and asked if he had a limit to how high he would go and he said no. But in the end the man won over 30 units so what can you say. Lucky year His history in baseball says no. He's running into shit storm and it will take awhile by betting favorites the way he does but he'll get there at least I believe he will. Think of it this way I believe you have about 26 weeks of baseball left and it the beginning he said he'll avg about 15 games a week so that's a whole bunch of games left
If you paid just close your eyes get the best price possible which I believe hasn't been a problem (I wouldn't know I'm not a Sub) bet his games and see where you wind up. Hey the way I look at it even if he has a losing year it happens . If I remember right his big favorite bets were more towards the beginning of the season but I'm not sure. I love when he talks about the Market I don't think I ever truly understood a full post. Bits and pieces here and there and in the beginning I asked questions and he put it more in terms that I could understand.
Hey Golfer if you bought the rest of the season I'll give you 50 cents on the dollar and take over the Sub this way your blood pressure will stay where it needs to be.
Hey Golfer if you bought the rest of the season I'll give you 50 cents on the dollar and take over the Sub this way your blood pressure will stay where it needs to be.
I must be a sick fuck, but this gave me the best laugh today. thanks OT
What is the minimum estimated % edge you are firing on these plays for the service, and what was the estimated edge last year (and maybe prior years) for posting? ... or an estimate for last year if you didn't have a hard fast rule. While it's always best to get every bet if it is going to be +EV at all, I think some overbetting might be possible for people if they were accustomed to you posting less plays, but higher edge in the past. You also might have covered this, but honestly I didn't read through all the bitching in this thread.
I can't understand that either. Why such a high ratio of Favs compared to Dogs?
Becket has to stop this guy is crippled. I know the models don't show it, but trust me he's crippled
The "models" might have had something to do with the -18 cents of CLV on that play.
I know it's been a tough start for BG, but my biggest issue so far has been the playing of big favorites. Does anyone else have any issues with this?
I believe BG will turn it around, but laying a lot of juice is killing me.
Valuations on favorites tend to get compressed early on in the season. Result confirmation has accelerated compression of late. Historically, my favorite/underdog ratio is typically highest in April and lowest in the last month of the season. This has triggered a firestorm with the way underdogs have been hitting.
Out of the gates, the screen has been unappealing. Openers have been slightly more efficient, volatility has been down, moves have been more one-directional than recent years, and a lot of equity has been picked off on the overnight. Having said that, I have seen unappealing conditions that ended up being transitory in the past, and and the last few days are pointing towards that possibly being the case again.
Two questions:
If the screen has been unappealing, does that mean that you've been putting out plays with a smaller edge, or that you haven't had as much volume as you'd expect? If the market conditions do change in the future, which could we expect to change in terms of volume or edge?
The "models" might have had something to do with the -18 cents of CLV on that play.
Perhaps. But likely more to it than a Beckett raid. Looks like Beckett traded at a season high valuation last time out, which he backed with his best outing. All teams coming off a Thursday double header opened 1.5% or more below baseline. The market seemed to think that wasn't enough in most cases, particularly attacking the teams with travel plus and +bp usage. If anything, the Beckett injury option factor is likely unwinding.
If the screen has been unappealing, does that mean that you've been putting out plays with a smaller edge, or that you haven't had as much volume as you'd expect? If the market conditions do change in the future, which could we expect to change in terms of volume or edge?
A little of both during the first 3 weeks. Things seem to be opening up a little bit of late, though it has resulted in the same. It depends on what the market change is.
But going forward in the short term, my margin of safety will likely increase until expected performance aligns with actual results. All else equal, this will result in a reduction of volume.
A little of both during the first 3 weeks. Things seem to be opening up a little bit of late, though it has resulted in the same. It depends on what the market change is.
But going forward in the short term, my margin of safety will likely increase until expected performance aligns with actual results. All else equal, this will result in a reduction of volume.
Thanks for answering this and twoniner's question about edge.
I see the average line value of BG at +.87%. But its a bit confusing as this does not take into account juice. For example, if BG had Orioles -115 and it closes -115 the CLV would read 0% but actually this is about a -1.5% play (because of juice).
So correct me if I'm wrong, but I think a good ballpark estimate is to subtract about 1.5% from each one to get a ballpark of -.6% per play.
Another way to look at it. If you can beat the Pinny mid-point Justin7 says 2 cents is worth about 1% ROI. If you can hit the Pinny midpoint, then you are flipping a coin. These don't beat the Pinny midpoint.
For that to be true the market would have to be perfectly efficient which is impossible given vig.
Assume a game is a 50/50 proposition and every market participant knows this except pinnacle. Pinny opens at +106/-116 .. Someone bets the +106 instantly and they move to +100/-110 . There are no more bets as there is no +ev on either side. In Justin's theory, betting -103 (on the -110 side) is +ev you are 2c better than the midpoint, but laying -103 on a coinflip is not +ev.
The perfectly fair line on this game is -105/-105 but it will never be bet there.
Comments
You could probably take out "kind of" and "IMO" since you're only referring to post ups like I was.
I take back what I said then about more overnight releases then lol. I guess U.S. subscribers are pretty limited... Cris just needs to get their heads out of their asses and start dealing a 10-cent line.
Ironically i can only get the released line for overnight betting. Game day lines i am no where close to getting.
We did it! Arizona got us one back.
Not worried and was not even specifically talking about BG. While I am the first to admit Im a recreational player my BR is seperate from everything else living expense related so if I lost it all my life would not be affected other than I would at some point have to carve out an additional bankroll to start over again.
My question was not should I stop following xyz, but rather at what point going forward does there current record have more relevance than the previous body of work. How do you evaluate whether to continue to follow or pass?
Thanks for response and good luck
Good question my man. What you want to do is treat it like a scientific trial. Take the adjusted win % and test it for statistical significance. Take the CLV, remold it into a win% and test the statistical significance. Take the action points, remold it into a win % and test the statistical significance. ETC.
You just want to find out: How likely is it that this capper's success was produced by randomness? Because if it is highly unlikely (and that is another threshold of risk to be calculated and decided upon by the individual trader) that his/her success is random, then it is highly likely that it was produced by skill. And if it is highly likely that the results are a product of skill, then it is highly likely that such profitable results will continue for the foreseeable future.
And it is important to note that the market does evolve, past edges are absorbed, and thus testing must be a perpetual process. HOWEVER, much too frequently: small insignificant samples of recent results are given far too much credence.
Rather have him focus on handicapping than dealing with people who are unhappy after barely a full month
I could and should do both. I am going to skip the negative variance and bad breaks talk, and rather focus on outlook.
I have been doing this for quite some time with success I can say I am proud of. My process is as sound as it always has been. Results however, have been horrible. Like when I started poorly in baseball last year and college basketball earlier this year, I would like to ask for more time again before judgement is made. I don't think those that were patient then and continued to follow got hurt doing so. I don't think those that take such advice this time will either.
Year to date results plays just a minor role on my outlook of the season going forward. My attention is more focused on market conditions and process (notice how I left line confirm out). Out of the gates, the screen has been unappealing. Openers have been slightly more efficient, volatility has been down, moves have been more one-directional than recent years, and a lot of equity has been picked off on the overnight. Having said that, I have seen unappealing conditions that ended up being transitory in the past, and and the last few days are pointing towards that possibly being the case again.
The one positive regarding the poor start is that it is less concerning when it occurs early in the season when players have the tendency to deviate more from fundamental form. Discounting error is more likely to reverse course. Still a long season left. I am confident things will turn.
What is the minimum estimated % edge you are firing on these plays for the service, and what was the estimated edge last year (and maybe prior years) for posting? ... or an estimate for last year if you didn't have a hard fast rule. While it's always best to get every bet if it is going to be +EV at all, I think some overbetting might be possible for people if they were accustomed to you posting less plays, but higher edge in the past. You also might have covered this, but honestly I didn't read through all the bitching in this thread.
GL
I believe BG will turn it around, but laying a lot of juice is killing me.
I can't understand that either. Why such a high ratio of Favs compared to Dogs?
Becket has to stop this guy is crippled. I know the models don't show it, but trust me he's crippled
If you paid just close your eyes get the best price possible which I believe hasn't been a problem (I wouldn't know I'm not a Sub) bet his games and see where you wind up. Hey the way I look at it even if he has a losing year it happens . If I remember right his big favorite bets were more towards the beginning of the season but I'm not sure. I love when he talks about the Market I don't think I ever truly understood a full post. Bits and pieces here and there and in the beginning I asked questions and he put it more in terms that I could understand.
Hey Golfer if you bought the rest of the season I'll give you 50 cents on the dollar and take over the Sub this way your blood pressure will stay where it needs to be.
I must be a sick fuck, but this gave me the best laugh today. thanks OT
About 3%. A little higher last year.
The "models" might have had something to do with the -18 cents of CLV on that play.
Valuations on favorites tend to get compressed early on in the season. Result confirmation has accelerated compression of late. Historically, my favorite/underdog ratio is typically highest in April and lowest in the last month of the season. This has triggered a firestorm with the way underdogs have been hitting.
Two questions:
If the screen has been unappealing, does that mean that you've been putting out plays with a smaller edge, or that you haven't had as much volume as you'd expect? If the market conditions do change in the future, which could we expect to change in terms of volume or edge?
Perhaps. But likely more to it than a Beckett raid. Looks like Beckett traded at a season high valuation last time out, which he backed with his best outing. All teams coming off a Thursday double header opened 1.5% or more below baseline. The market seemed to think that wasn't enough in most cases, particularly attacking the teams with travel plus and +bp usage. If anything, the Beckett injury option factor is likely unwinding.
But going forward in the short term, my margin of safety will likely increase until expected performance aligns with actual results. All else equal, this will result in a reduction of volume.
Thanks for answering this and twoniner's question about edge.
So correct me if I'm wrong, but I think a good ballpark estimate is to subtract about 1.5% from each one to get a ballpark of -.6% per play.
Another way to look at it. If you can beat the Pinny mid-point Justin7 says 2 cents is worth about 1% ROI. If you can hit the Pinny midpoint, then you are flipping a coin. These don't beat the Pinny midpoint.
This is complete nonsense by the way.
And also is there an/(another) flaw in my argument?
Assume a game is a 50/50 proposition and every market participant knows this except pinnacle. Pinny opens at +106/-116 .. Someone bets the +106 instantly and they move to +100/-110 . There are no more bets as there is no +ev on either side. In Justin's theory, betting -103 (on the -110 side) is +ev you are 2c better than the midpoint, but laying -103 on a coinflip is not +ev.
The perfectly fair line on this game is -105/-105 but it will never be bet there.
But I guess it is easy enough for one to calculate that on their own.