Hey, BG, have a question on modeling, (little beyond my realm, so bear with me), with modeling, do you run regression analysis, and backtest on a continual basis, ....or it just something you use at implementation ???? you mentioned the market is acting a bit differently than in years past,but given your success and market knowledge, is it something that you let "play itself play out", or do you "tweak the model as you go along ????( hope this makes sense ??) thanks
Not sure what exactly you mean about using at implementation. You are welcome to PM at the other site for more clarification if you wish.
As far as the market, the behavior shown would not be conducive of something that warrants adjustments other than timing methodology.
Not sure what exactly you mean about using at implementation. You are welcome to PM at the other site for more clarification if you wish.
As far as the market, the behavior shown would not be conducive of something that warrants adjustments other than timing methodology.
I know you meant no harm and apparently know Rip from another site, but let's not start a precedent of asking posters to PM each other at another site. Thanks for understanding.
I know you meant no harm and apparently know Rip from another site, but let's not start a precedent of asking posters to PM each other at another site. Thanks for understanding.
It wouldn't be necessary if this site had pm's.
It's not possible to eliminate contact between posters.
The site can make it more difficult though. I don't think that's a plus for the site.
It's not possible to eliminate contact between posters.
The site can make it more difficult though. I don't think that's a plus for the site.
Naturally I understand all that, just enforcing the spirit of the rules as part of my job, don't shoot the messenger. Only Ed can decide to turn PM's on.
We have all been on forums were PM's have caused trouble and I originally was for them until my memory was jogged a little from a discussion here a couple of months back and thought about some issues from the old forums that a lot of us used in the past. I understand there is two schools of thought if you have PM's you don't have to use them but I think it may go deeper then that I think by not having the PM'S it not only saves the people who run the forum unnecessary trouble (It's Not a bad thing believe me I do understand that Y Y is a good thing) but I also believe that they have the protection of there poster's in mine also. I'm far from a naive man (but could be in this case) but I do believe that's one of issues why there's no PM'S and never will be. Yes I said the word never.
No complaining of any kind here (im super happy/grateful for the plays), but us poor Pinny-only folks are uniformly 4-8c off (ie too much) on the last several of these. I'm in the process of getting matchbook and cris accounts to solve some of this problem... but are many of these 5D lines?
I am at a bit of a disadvantage, growing up in the non-computer world, so black box modeling, programming knowledge, etc, etc. is a bit foreign to me
yeah, I can read , and have read books on these topics, but from a gambling perspective....... BG has been "]gracious enough" to help , that's what prompted the question....Thanks
With the market valuation on the Angels hitting a season high within the last couple of days and the Orioles valuation hitting a season low within the same time frame, you have to ask yourself- what is the market discounting this year?
With the market valuation on the Angels hitting a season high within the last couple of days and the Orioles valuation hitting a season low within the same time frame, you have to ask yourself- what is the market discounting this year?
Are we operating under the assumption that the traditional market forces are the same this season?
Quick question, looks like there was roughly 160 plays last season and this year you're on track for a few more than that so are you being less selective or is it just more plays at the beginning of the year? Thanks
Quick question, looks like there was roughly 160 plays last season and this year you're on track for a few more than that so are you being less selective or is it just more plays at the beginning of the year? Thanks
Neither. Posted irregularly last year, and typically confined it to a play a day.
it" used" to be the prevailing thought that starting pitcher's that could give you 200 plus innings....were valuable ie ( knuckleball pitchers)
with specialization of closers, and setup men......middle relievers....has that emphasis shifted ???....Thanks
my only concern for today is that this is likely cingrani's last audition to maintain his spot in the rotation. Cueto will be returning soon and Cingrani or Leake will be sent back down and with how lights out Leaked has been playing lately it seems like Cingrani is in that position right now. Hard to bet against a guy who's back is against the wall to maintain his career. Not sure how to factor in the fact that he only pitched four innings in his last start and then had an extra day to rest so clearly he is well rested.
The extra days rest was to provide more time for Cingrani to rest up a sore shoulder. There is no hard evidence to suggest that he is likely to pitch better because this is his last audition before a decision has to be made on how to adjust the Reds rotation for Cueto. I have incorporated a pretty bullish valuation on Cingrani since start number one which has helped unwind the early season premium the market has assigned on the Reds. The overlay here is predominantly on the Phillies and Lee.
Comments
As far as the market, the behavior shown would not be conducive of something that warrants adjustments other than timing methodology.
I know you meant no harm and apparently know Rip from another site, but let's not start a precedent of asking posters to PM each other at another site. Thanks for understanding.
It wouldn't be necessary if this site had pm's.
It's not possible to eliminate contact between posters.
The site can make it more difficult though. I don't think that's a plus for the site.
Naturally I understand all that, just enforcing the spirit of the rules as part of my job, don't shoot the messenger. Only Ed can decide to turn PM's on.
Wrong.
I have never had the experience of PM's causing trouble.
No reason to apologize, by all means, keep asking questions. That's what forums are for. You did nothing wrong.
ouch.
OT is right, consider yourself lucky if you've never had issues regarding pm's
yeah, I can read , and have read books on these topics, but from a gambling perspective....... BG has been "]gracious enough" to help , that's what prompted the question....Thanks
Are we operating under the assumption that the traditional market forces are the same this season?
I wouldn't.
Thanks.
Neither. Posted irregularly last year, and typically confined it to a play a day.
Best of luck with your plays!
with specialization of closers, and setup men......middle relievers....has that emphasis shifted ???....Thanks