Bg just saw your az pick any comments backing your play?
Darvish really starting to get frothy. Rangers taking a bigger blow in terms of lineups coming in below full capacity.
Bit surprised with how the market has handled this series valuation given recent valuations on the DBacks and Cahill.
Darvish really starting to get frothy. Rangers taking a bigger blow in terms of lineups coming in below full capacity.
Bit surprised with how the market has handled this series valuation given recent valuations on the DBacks and Cahill.
anybody know of a more efficient way to follow the picks? All these adds throughout the day without notifications makes it quite inefficient. Its simply not realistic to expect people to follow all plays with this set up. Twitter would work I think, it does for ras.
anybody know of a more efficient way to follow the picks? All these adds throughout the day without notifications makes it quite inefficient. Twitter?
You have to come back to the forum after each pick. Everytime you get an email with a pick just click on the link in the email and you'll get every pick.
Yeah Isaw your reply in my email for this thread but this isn't the thread bg post his plays at. How does one get email notifications for his pick thread? Thx in advance.
Yeah Isaw your reply in my email for this thread but this isn't the thread bg post his plays at. How does one get email notifications for his pick thread? Thx in advance.
Click on "Thread Tools" at the top -> "Subscribe to this Thread".
AL teams once again dominating the bid structure in the IL market. But unlike seasons past where books tried to get in front of the likely market subset biding on the AL by inflating AL valuations out of the gates, books have taken a much less biased approach with their IL openers. In return, the line movement favoring the AL has been less than hoped/expected. Whether the price agnostic market subset bids have partially left the market, the AL valuation biases by originators is slowly unwinding, or the even keel openers making it harder to push up AL premiums, it appears we can add another facet in the MLB market that is differentiating from the last couple of years. G3 openers again begging to catch bids on the AL. Expect more movement towards the AL from game 3 opening prices.
I understand what your saying (I Think) and I know this is 20/20 and I believe the market is still biased to the AL as you say so If you like a National league team like the Phillies and Pittsburgh which were +109 and when I saw Pitt early they +100 now by waiting you can get Philly at +120 and Pitt at +110 now I know what I'm saying is after the fact and I don't pretend to know the Market better then you but even though the market isn't reacting like in the past regarding IL play shouldn't you still wait if you like a National league Team and Bet early if you like an American league team or am I missing your point here.
Yes, for the most part, the trend of money flowing into the AL remains true (albeit for possibly different reasons). So its best to wait to enter positions on NL teams until books adjust their openers (or preferably until the market trend breaks). But the timing still remains difficult given the markets continued lack of consistency with their pricings of each game within the series. Look no further than SD/Sea G1,G2, G3.
buffett, apologies if this was already discussed or answered in the past. if you release a play at say -125 but the board can only get it at -130/-135/-140
at what level is a play a pass vs being +ev, I understand that this is not an exact science and may very from game to game. also is the line movement on a dog more of a pass...like the play you released today +122, would you still play it at +110? thank you and GL
Like you said, it would differ for each posted play. Market lines have to be trading a certain amount below fair value in order for me to post. Most posted games are within 5 cents of that trigger. That's not to say I wouldn't be personally positioning myself on lines 5 cents off of the posted number, rather, I would more than likely would not be posting them or recommending others to bet them.
Probably best to be more cautious with the dog lines.
Like you said, it would differ for each posted play. Market lines have to be trading a certain amount below fair value in order for me to post. Most posted games are within 5 cents of that trigger. That's not to say I wouldn't be personally positioning myself on lines 5 cents off of the posted number, rather, I would more than likely would not be posting them or recommending others to bet them.
Probably best to be more cautious with the dog lines.
not sure if I follow, "5 cents of that trigger" meaning you are assuming that the posted plays have a 5 cent advantage on the book, but if the # is more then 5 cents off you would still play it? 5 cents seems very tight to me, guys that don't have access to 10 cent lines will probably be 5 cents off the bat. thanks for getting back to me.
Comments
Done.
Thanks.
To the poster who asked which half of the DH the pick was for, that's why there's a rotation number listed. It's game one.
Someone is beating you to pinny.
I believe he already cashed the winner. Game #1
Darvish really starting to get frothy. Rangers taking a bigger blow in terms of lineups coming in below full capacity.
Bit surprised with how the market has handled this series valuation given recent valuations on the DBacks and Cahill.
*thumbs up* nice win mate
You have to come back to the forum after each pick. Everytime you get an email with a pick just click on the link in the email and you'll get every pick.
Click on "Thread Tools" at the top -> "Subscribe to this Thread".
Wouldn't have been if Cards came in with the same lineup as planned for yesterday, but is given the big downgrade in lineup valuation.
at what level is a play a pass vs being +ev, I understand that this is not an exact science and may very from game to game. also is the line movement on a dog more of a pass...like the play you released today +122, would you still play it at +110? thank you and GL
Probably best to be more cautious with the dog lines.
not sure if I follow, "5 cents of that trigger" meaning you are assuming that the posted plays have a 5 cent advantage on the book, but if the # is more then 5 cents off you would still play it? 5 cents seems very tight to me, guys that don't have access to 10 cent lines will probably be 5 cents off the bat. thanks for getting back to me.