Betting Talk

danshan thread

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Comments

  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    interesting but not what am talking about really , I get your point though , just don't agree 100%

    Out of here for the yankees game, luck

    talk more tomorrow
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    R40 wrote: »
    Yes, you have spent tens of hours arguing this point with people that agree with you thinking they thought differently.

    recreational betting is really fun

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    jets96 wrote: »
    interesting but not what am talking about really , I get your point though , just don't agree 100%

    Out of here for the yankees game, luck

    talk more tomorrow

    I need the Yanks to win 1st 5, they better Jets! the responsibility of them is on you! where do you sit I am gonna watch the game!
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    danshan wrote: »
    recreational betting is really fun

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    I need the Yanks to win 1st 5, they better Jets! the responsibility of them is on you! where do you sit I am gonna watch the game!

    When it stop being fun, it is time to quit or bet more!!!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    rook wrote: »
    OK danshan, at the half the Dream are up by 2 and 2nd half odds are Dream +.5. Can we formulate a bet out of that?

    https://imgur.com/a/WBNslLe

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    danshan wrote: »

    you talked me into it Rook!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    @stackattack do you handicap those golf matchups for value or picking winners ?? do you see line value on those usually?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    told you the Sparks had no chance lose 3 quarters and crush the Dream in the 4th, only my bets!!! personal bets suck! LOL
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    ok more drunk bets

    https://imgur.com/a/Rfziv0n
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    every single MLB game under
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    can Miami have a perfect game for real?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    here is another one

    on tennis
    guy is -205 and you can get it now at -170ish

    https://imgur.com/a/Q5H2DwI


    https://fairlay.com/market/edan-leshem-vs-marc-polmans/

    here is another one

    https://fairlay.com/market/joao-menezes-vs-luke-saville/

    if admin is cool with it, I can post these up after I bite the apple.

    Admin is it ok for me to post these or do you not want them on here?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    what does anyone think of this? I cant believe pinny published this

    https://imgur.com/a/SICc6DV
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    https://fairlay.com/market/vasek-pospisil-vs-ernesto-escobedo/

    get +158 and current pinny price +138

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    https://fairlay.com/market/vasek-pospisil-vs-ernesto-escobedo/

    get +166 pinny currently at 137

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    https://fairlay.com/market/alejandro-tabilo-vs-max-purcell/

    get -138 pinny currently at -151

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    https://fairlay.com/market/alexis-galarneau-vs-peter-polansky/

    get +210 pinny at pinny at +184
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2019
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    Dan , in layman's terms, WTF is fairlay
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    what you think about that ham game tomorrow....i have them -1.03 and you have them -3
    we are getting 2.5 ?
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    The Sharps say the Fav I like the Dog go Ti-Cats. There's a trend to consider. We consider it in the NFL why not the CFL . I believe it's 68% betting the team coming off a bye. I believe it's 3-1 this year. I not telling you to bet it blindly but the Cats are playing good ball. So are the Bombers Good Game.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    ot , thanks for info , I just started using my nfl model for cfl , and really , if i didnt tell you before, am telling you now, i changed my model because what you once told me ...my model was basically using the full years sked, I changed it when we talked about using the last four games played , really, the way nfl teams adjust , i doubt using something in Sept helps me in Dec,
    68% seems very high ATS for teams coming of byes.,,,,took a sec i and looked real quick i have 59.5 ats after a bye
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    ot hows the stadium looking , my brother in law bought ,so he told me , season tickets , except he lives in yonkers, cant wait to the jets go there to play ...ill be there
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    Is this a newer US facing exchange? Looks promising. Crypto only?
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    jets96 wrote: »
    ot , thanks for info , I just started using my nfl model for cfl , and really , if i didnt tell you before, am telling you now, i changed my model because what you once told me ...my model was basically using the full years sked, I changed it when we talked about using the last four games played , really, the way nfl teams adjust , i doubt using something in Sept helps me in Dec,
    68% seems very high ATS for teams coming of byes.,,,,took a sec i and looked real quick i have 59.5 ats after a bye

    Jets you're absolutely right, I couldn't remember 58% or 68% I think I seen 58.8 but whatever it's something to consider.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    jets96 wrote: »
    what you think about that ham game tomorrow....i have them -1.03 and you have them -3
    we are getting 2.5 ?

    no space, -2.5 is fair

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    Is this a newer US facing exchange? Looks promising. Crypto only?

    crypto only, no registration or aml/kyc and instant payouts.

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    jets96 wrote: »
    Dan , in layman's terms, WTF is fairlay

    exact same thing as betfair, just a good old fashion exchange but the awesome thing is people place up bets and forget about them or dont care about the line or whatever and there are always good pickings!
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    jets96 wrote: »
    ot hows the stadium looking , my brother in law bought ,so he told me , season tickets , except he lives in yonkers, cant wait to the jets go there to play ...ill be there

    There putting on the roof already. There working this stadium it seems like 24/7 and will be right on schedule no question. There looking the last I heard in henderson to build a training facility. They did a Great job with the Baseball stadium which I could walk to it's great to watch a game live once in a while. Went to a game a couple weeks ago and the Aviators were losing 10-1 in the 4th I told my buddy who goes a lot what inning are we leaving. He said this game is far from over. The pitcher from the other team I forget the name was lights out and then Boom we win in the bottom of the 9th 11-10

    The Vegas Knight games are parties like you haven't seen. 18,400 inside in a 17,500 seat stadium and the outside on the big screen who knows how many are partying. I go to about 10 games a season. I go down there have a bite and keep hitting Stubhub till the price is right. I have some friends with season tickets that I get face value once in a while. Family first you know. Anyway come see the Jets but if it's like Oakland don't wear any Jet Jerseys.

    Really not looking forward to and most of the industry workers in gaming aren't either. Can't gamble with any kind of mask on or painted faces. If you want to gamble table games we have to see your face. Nightmare but not mine anymore the NBA all star game was enough. Talk Soon.
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    Any idea who the Market Makers are? Adequate liquidity?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    Any idea who the Market Makers are? Adequate liquidity?

    no idea plenty of liquidity though, I have max bet a line 4 or 5 times at 300-400 mbtc and had it instantly refill asking if I want more on MLB, CFL, and WNBA. I can get down 3-4K usually on a WNBA side without the line moving, which is way more than any other book I used. on 99% of games, the line is usually a penny better than pinny up to about pinny has -104 you can get -103 usually on most markets, I only play major markets except for WNBA and its about the same.

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    just glanced real quick and MLB looks like it has about 4-5K on sides and about 3-4K on 1half bets
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    danshan wrote: »
    no idea plenty of liquidity though, I have max bet a line 4 or 5 times at 300-400 mbtc and had it instantly refill asking if I want more on MLB, CFL, and WNBA. I can get down 3-4K usually on a WNBA side without the line moving, which is way more than any other book I used. on 99% of games, the line is usually a penny better than pinny up to about pinny has -104 you can get -103 usually on most markets, I only play major markets except for WNBA and its about the same.

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    just glanced real quick and MLB looks like it has about 4-5K on sides and about 3-4K on 1half bets

    Thanks for the info Dan!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    my CFL bet hit again! gret line movement too, my over under not looking so sharp right now, we shall see how it looks at closing
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    I am asking a legitimate question I spend a few minutes on twitter a day and I keep seeing from lets say fairly credible twitter guys things like

    Yankees won 5 in a row
    Paxton is 6-1 with a 1.87 era in his last 5 starts
    Orioles have won 3 straight road games as dogs

    I will say I think these types of things may play in the line but what is the significance other than some maybe if actually matter adjustments to the betting line?

    I wrote baseball quotes but you see these type of things from every sport, what gives??
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    7/21/2019 COL S L 4-8 L -200 O 10.5 3.1 5 7 4 6 3 1 77 23.1 3.00
    7/15/2019 TB S ND 4-5 L -151 P 9 6.0 7 2 2 7 2 2 107 17.8 2.00
    7/7/2019 @ TB S L 1-2 L 113 U 7.5 6.0 7 2 2 11 0 0 99 16.5 2.00
    7/2/2019 @ NYM S ND 2-4 L -132 U 9 6.0 8 1 1 3 2 1 103 17.2 1.33
    6/26/2019 TOR S ND 8-7 W -249 O 10 4.1 8 6 6 3 4 3 91 21.0 3.00

    I don't think you read it right I believe the 6-1 record is against Boston not his last 5 starts.
    I didn't bother checking the others that you stated. But it's gambling twitter taken with a grain of salt.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    7/21/2019 COL S L 4-8 L -200 O 10.5 3.1 5 7 4 6 3 1 77 23.1 3.00
    7/15/2019 TB S ND 4-5 L -151 P 9 6.0 7 2 2 7 2 2 107 17.8 2.00
    7/7/2019 @ TB S L 1-2 L 113 U 7.5 6.0 7 2 2 11 0 0 99 16.5 2.00
    7/2/2019 @ NYM S ND 2-4 L -132 U 9 6.0 8 1 1 3 2 1 103 17.2 1.33
    6/26/2019 TOR S ND 8-7 W -249 O 10 4.1 8 6 6 3 4 3 91 21.0 3.00

    I don't think you read it right I believe the 6-1 record is against Boston not his last 5 starts.
    I didn't bother checking the others that you stated. But it's gambling twitter taken with a grain of salt.


    they were made up statements, I did not use actual examples. I was trying to understand why these type things are so popular and what value do they actually have and if somehow they are not reflected in the line.

    I mean if you say Yankees are better than the Barnstormers and the line is Yankees -240, isnt that statement kind of apparent already in the line?
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited July 2019
    You want to see some twitter BS

    The Washington Nationals has not been a good HD.
    They are 2-5 this season and 4-15 their last 19 games in that role.

    Then he shows you the SDQL and they played 7 games in 2019 as a HD and 8th game tonight he shows you losses from April,May and June when Washington was playing terrible. Different team these days not saying they can't lose but to run and bet against them based on this information is sad. Twitter is fun to read and sometimes you find a nugget but nobody really sharp is giving the store away.
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