Not sure how many of you know him but James Altucher who always comes across a bit nutty (kind of reminds me of Rick Moranis the "honey I shrunk the kids, ghostbusters, spaceballs" guy) has a unique way of describing a simple premise when it comes to the markets. The following link explains his view of the market currently. What's interesting is as everyone was negative through the climb up from the bear market lows he was always known for his extreme bullish take on the market, however, he now sees it a bit differently...here's his perspective and some of his ideas for specific plays, thought it worth posting:
Originally Posted by TheReb
"AAPL currently @ 485 area, long term trendline at 470, a breach of this would open up downside target of 380 area to fill a gap left on monthly charts at the end of 2011, point of this is for anyone that was looking at opening a position in apple you may want to wait a bit. One interesting aspect of apple's sell off is that the rest of the market has been holding up rather well to this point, interestingly you could make the argument that the money coming out is actually being rotated into other areas such as the financials and biotechs. Could you imagine the impact of any significant rotation out of bonds into equities, when that happens you will see one of the greatest moves in stocks in history IMO. Apple has been a place where money has been parked as "a safe haven" just like the bond market, in other words, it's been viewed as a place to put the cash while the uncertainty of fiscal cliff, deficits, and politics played itself out as the world goes through its deleveraging phase. Obviously the timing of when this happens is anybody's guess but it sure is something to be watching out for to get in at the early onset."
01-23-2013 03:06 PM
"Has breached this trendline in after market session after their earning announcement, the weekly close is more important and how it gets met when trading opens in the am. but this 10% move down will be painful for a lot of different longs (IRA's, Mutual Funds, 401k's, etc) also the recent buyers that went long may bail also. My guess is at this point this could be a catalyst for the correction that a lot have been waiting for. Very possible for this to target the gap mentioned at 380 now. So would still wait if anyone was thinking of opening a position IMO"
Today:
Apple Breaks Below $400 for First Time Since Dec. 2011
Text Size
Published: Wednesday, 17 Apr 2013 | 12:57 PM ET
Getting close to the 380 price target on AAPL, first breach of 400 should catch some buying here but I still believe it will have a little more down side. However, if you're looking to establish a position anything between 400 and 380 is a good place to start scaling in IMO. You could wait and see how much the final puke out will be but it's getting close, probably one big volume down flush out coming. As far as the others I've mentioned as follows: SNFCA I have re entered a position here @ 7.00 with a p/e of 4.66 a steal for a company that continues to gain market share from the big box banks. MNKD I continue to hold long term, has broken to the 4.00 area and consolidates at that level while the overall market retreats, same for OPK which holds the 7.00 level. ONVO has been basing in the 3.50 area and currently trades between the 50 & 200 day MA. I did enter into a new position on ASTX, really like their pipeline with some very exciting breakthroughs in new antibiotics to handle resistant strain bacteria's such as MRSA. Bought today near the lows at 6.05...GL with the games today! -R
Updating for those that follow:
AAPL played out to the tee having hit the target down in the 380's and then reversing up to recent 465 price, currently neutral with a lean to a retracement from the recent run up down to 425 area. MNKD has continued its climb up reaching 4.60 area (originally mentioned this one at 3.00 area) SNFCA now up to 8.80 area from the 7.00 area I mentioned a few weeks ago. ONVO is back to the 4.60 area as well and OPK is holding steady in the 6.80-7.00 range, ASTX pulled back a bit to the 5.60 area but still remains a longer term buy IMO and I will look to add to current position. Some very decent returns in these over the last month or so. One item of note, SNFCA still has a pretty decent short interest even despite the recent run, earnings should be out in the next two days so any report in line with current uptrend in earnings and this one will still have some good room to run. Lets make it a great week! -R
This thread is quite interesting. Can you guys please post the moment after you buy or sell? It would be cool to have this thread run similarly to the sports betting threads.
AAPL played out to the tee having hit the target down in the 380's and then reversing up to recent 465 price, currently neutral with a lean to a retracement from the recent run up down to 425 area. MNKD has continued its climb up reaching 4.60 area (originally mentioned this one at 3.00 area) SNFCA now up to 8.80 area from the 7.00 area I mentioned a few weeks ago. ONVO is back to the 4.60 area as well and OPK is holding steady in the 6.80-7.00 range, ASTX pulled back a bit to the 5.60 area but still remains a longer term buy IMO and I will look to add to current position. Some very decent returns in these over the last month or so. One item of note, SNFCA still has a pretty decent short interest even despite the recent run, earnings should be out in the next two days so any report in line with current uptrend in earnings and this one will still have some good room to run. Lets make it a great week! -R
Overall pretty decent thanks mainly to MNKD which has broken out and is up over 150% since I first mentioned it (closed today @ 7.65) short interest as of 5/31 remained very high at 45 mill. shares so still a lot of room in the tank for this one. Partnering or takeover talk has a minimum buyout price @ $26.00..but I would say that is low should they get the anticipated FDA approval of their Diabetes treatment which could end up being the first treatment protocol recommended by the ADA. Still a risk that it doesn't get approved so need to hedge any long positions with some cheap puts. SNFCA holding in the 7+ area with a still decent short position although it has dropped a bit. ONVO and ASTX have pulled back with the overall market and OPK still trading between 6.50-7.00 range as the CEO continues to insider buy. Looking at starting two new positions, SNE as the new playstation should fare much better than the new XBOX according to my sources also PHMM Peregrine which took a large hit a couple of months back but has different trials going on that have shown positive results. Also looking at RDN & MTG as the private mortgage insurers should get some decent increase in underwriting new policies due to the new FHA guidelines for Mortgage Insurance now being for the life of the loan. AAPL did trade down to the 425 area bounced and is now treading in a range from 425-450. Off to the poker tables, thinking of a last longer bet with Okie in the Seniors championship at the WSOP lol.
Originally Posted by minger2123
Reb, my scottrade screen for ONVO shows an ask of 4.09 with a size of 2,050,000. The bid is 4.08 and bid size is 50,000.
Could that be right? That would put the volume at over 5 times? Is that one seller or a group of sellers at 4.09?
Yes it was a nice move to today, will be interesting to see if it can hold the gains but moving up 26% higher on significant above average daily volume is a very nice move. The one I'm really watching over the next 4-6 weeks is MNKD as they have completed their phase III trials on their Diabetes therapy for both type I and type II, which uses an inhaler the size of a whistle instead of either shots or oral meds. The anticipation is high that it will show positive results, gain a potential Big Pharma partner, and get approval. Been riding this one since the 2.00 area, currently up to 6.80 area after a pretty nice run up and working sideways currently prior to the Aug. results. There is still a lot of doubters on this one and as a result has a 30% short position which could get cooked if things fall the right way. IMO the risk/reward is heavily +EV from current price and it could be hedged very cheaply with out of the money puts for the faint of heart. Currently sitting with shares and options equiv. to 17k/shares if that tells you how much I'm betting on this one...will either be a boom or bust but right now the reports are that the trials went well (someone that was in the trial has stated that it was the best they ever felt as far as a treatment for their disease) fwiw. Guess we'll see
Reb, Thanks again for the ONVO. My average cost is around $2.70. So i am very happy with todays move. But why did they move to the NYSE as opposed to the Nasdaq? I thought the Nasdaq would get them more exposure than the NYSE.
Also, It closed over $5.00 today. Dubbs feels it will not go any higher. Your thoughts?
I am thinking it will be a great buyout candidate..
Reb, Thanks again for the ONVO. My average cost is around $2.70. So i am very happy with todays move. But why did they move to the NYSE as opposed to the Nasdaq? I thought the Nasdaq would get them more exposure than the NYSE.
Also, It closed over $5.00 today. Dubbs feels it will not go any higher. Your thoughts?
I am thinking it will be a great buyout candidate..
Thanks again!
The move to the NYSE gives them a lot more credibility as a viable entity, they must of had their reasons for moving there as opposed to the broader Nasdaq. I remain a long term holder, it's just one of those that I tucked away as they continue to develop their technology.
The move to the NYSE gives them a lot more credibility as a viable entity, they must of had their reasons for moving there as opposed to the broader Nasdaq. I remain a long term holder, it's just one of those that I tucked away as they continue to develop their technology.
ONVO continues to build momentum, now over 7.00, following is an article that motley fool put out, really doesn't say much that we already didn't know but I do like the youtube video of the 3D bio printer, pretty cool stuff. Also MNKD has built a nice base in the high 6's and is looking like it is ready to resume its uptrend with their phase III trial results looming in Aug. OPK & ASTX have also resumed their uptrends as well after backing and filling. Enjoy the all star break fellas.
Just checked my brokerage and your little treasure ONVO sitting @ 7.083 @ the moment. Totally forgot I tailed you on this a while back. Whats my exit point here buddy?
Just checked my brokerage and your little treasure ONVO sitting @ 7.083 @ the moment. Totally forgot I tailed you on this a while back. Whats my exit point here buddy?
Coops, depends on your entry point, what I would recommend is to ideally take your initial investment out (hopefully you have more than doubled) and let the rest ride longer term with some loose trailing stops, hope that helps
Just checked my brokerage and your little treasure ONVO sitting @ 7.083 @ the moment. Totally forgot I tailed you on this a while back. Whats my exit point here buddy?
Coops, what did you end up doing? currently sits around 7.50 what was your orig. buy in?
coops, dont post much here, but just wanted to say thanks alot for onvo, i bought in at 410, thanks again, and 2 things, waiting for you to say what you sell point is, and waiting for another one, but honestly, thanks alot, gl to u on your new house and everything else you get involved with
coops, dont post much here, but just wanted to say thanks alot for onvo, i bought in at 410, thanks again, and 2 things, waiting for you to say what you sell point is, and waiting for another one, but honestly, thanks alot, gl to u on your new house and everything else you get involved with
Thank TheReb, not me. Hes the stock guru, i tailed him also.
wow, now you really know i dont post much, but thanks to you and especially "reb", so what i said to 'coops" i say to you 2x "reb", even if you didnt recently buy a house.
wow, now you really know i dont post much, but thanks to you and especially "reb", so what i said to 'coops" i say to you 2x "reb", even if you didnt recently buy a house.
No worries, I just hope a ton of people made some $$$ on it ;-)...Coops, I know you trade options so look this one over and tell me what you think as far as +EV....MNKD is about 3-4 weeks from announcing their trial results on their diabetes therapy. Most are anticipating that they were successful but there is always the chance it comes out not good which in their case would most likely wipe the company out at this point. If successful, they will most likely get FDA approval and the shares should pop accordingly with their break through treatment....so I was looking at a diagonal put spread, buying the sep 6 strike puts and selling the jan '15 7 strike puts which would net approx. 275.00 per contract, if the news is good the time premium should not matter that much as the stock would most likely move into the teens, if the news is bad you can't get too hurt because the sep's would most likely be in the full money...what do you think, it is a unique situation based on knowing the timeline of the pivotal event (which should be second week of Aug.)
As far as updates on the equities that I mentioned most frequently earlier they go as follows (I will copy and post in the original thread as well to bring that one up to date and reactivate it now that the sites have consolidated and summer is over)
ONVO just had Roche discuss using their liver cells so that among other events have garnered some attention...there are those that are still skeptical but it continues to attract buyers on any dips and holds the mid to upper 5 area fairly well. I still hold a long position.
MNKD is getting ready to submit their NDA (New Drug Application) on Afrezza and I have my largest holding in this company. The short interest is huge at just near 50 mill shares and after their successful phase III trials they raised 160 mill in a four tranche financing based on reaching certain milestones of which they have already reached the first 2 which translated into 80 mill. They also hired Greenhill Capital to act on its behalf as their agent in negotiations with potential partners with Big Pharma....currently trading at the 6 handle...my initial target is 10 and longer term into the 20's...if you care to know more about them let me know but that is a quick summary on their current scenario.
ASTX has received a tender offer see link http://investor.astx.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=788931 which translates to 8.50/sh when I first mentioned them they were trading at 6.05 and then subsequently 5.60 where I stated I was adding to my position...hope some tailed.
OPK has traded up to the 9 handle and currently sits just under @ 8.70 area....continue to hold long and in the money call options (Jan '14 7's) had originally recommended this back in the mid 4's.
SNFCA currently sitting in the low 6's, this pretty much has been the only laggard of the bunch...I still currently hold long.
As far as updates on the equities that I mentioned most frequently earlier they go as follows (I will copy and post in the original thread as well to bring that one up to date and reactivate it now that the sites have consolidated and summer is over)
ONVO just had Roche discuss using their liver cells so that among other events have garnered some attention...there are those that are still skeptical but it continues to attract buyers on any dips and holds the mid to upper 5 area fairly well. I still hold a long position.
MNKD is getting ready to submit their NDA (New Drug Application) on Afrezza and I have my largest holding in this company. The short interest is huge at just near 50 mill shares and after their successful phase III trials they raised 160 mill in a four tranche financing based on reaching certain milestones of which they have already reached the first 2 which translated into 80 mill. They also hired Greenhill Capital to act on its behalf as their agent in negotiations with potential partners with Big Pharma....currently trading at the 6 handle...my initial target is 10 and longer term into the 20's...if you care to know more about them let me know but that is a quick summary on their current scenario.
ASTX has received a tender offer see link http://investor.astx.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=788931 which translates to 8.50/sh when I first mentioned them they were trading at 6.05 and then subsequently 5.60 where I stated I was adding to my position...hope some tailed.
OPK has traded up to the 9 handle and currently sits just under @ 8.70 area....continue to hold long and in the money call options (Jan '14 7's) had originally recommended this back in the mid 4's.
SNFCA currently sitting in the low 6's, this pretty much has been the only laggard of the bunch...I still currently hold long.
Just an FYI for those following...I added another 5k shares of MNKD today (currently at 15k shares and 160 Jan/Feb'14 7 strike calls , as we get closer to the NDA filing and possible partnership announcement I feel this has consolidated at these levels in anticipation of its next leg up.
Thanks Reb... I am a bit heavy in ONVO.. May take some off the table and buy some more MNKD.
So far so good.
Thanks again!
Minger, here are a couple of links that show just how easy and convenient their therapy is compared to the needles and multiple sticks currently required for diabetics...also what is actually a more important factor is the reduced amount of hypoglycemic incidents with Afrezza compared to Novolog and other current insulins due to its short tail and rapid acting capabilities. The first video is someone who was actually in their clinical trials and does not want to go back on Novolog, he set up the you tube video to show how quick and easy it is to use the inhaler. The second video shows how effective it was in conjunction with an artificial pancreas in creating a more normal lifestyle for type 1 diabetics. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqU8jYpkKuM&feature=player_detailpage
Pretty incredible stuff....obviously I fully expect it to get FDA approval (of course nothing is 100% guaranteed except death and taxes ;-) and I also expect it to become the protocol for prandial (mealtime) dosing for most if not all type 2 diabetics as they will comply much more with this treatment as opposed to sticking themselves. Take it fwiw -R
Once in awhile in the market, as in life, you've got to be a little superstitious. I just learned of a small REIT-- looks interesting-- and, most importantly, the symbol is RAS.
Once in awhile in the market, as in life, you've got to be a little superstitious. I just learned of a small REIT-- looks interesting-- and, most importantly, the symbol is RAS.
LOL, I presume you're talking about the suggestion in the comments section...no that wasn't me, there are some good articles on it on SA, the one who seems to know quite a bit on them is George Rho. I'm in at the 2's and up, added last week...still think there is way good +EV on this one.
Comments
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1384441-james-altucher-why-the-stock-market-is-a-sucker-s-game-right-now-and-what-stocks-i-own?source=yahoo
Updating for those that follow:
AAPL played out to the tee having hit the target down in the 380's and then reversing up to recent 465 price, currently neutral with a lean to a retracement from the recent run up down to 425 area. MNKD has continued its climb up reaching 4.60 area (originally mentioned this one at 3.00 area) SNFCA now up to 8.80 area from the 7.00 area I mentioned a few weeks ago. ONVO is back to the 4.60 area as well and OPK is holding steady in the 6.80-7.00 range, ASTX pulled back a bit to the 5.60 area but still remains a longer term buy IMO and I will look to add to current position. Some very decent returns in these over the last month or so. One item of note, SNFCA still has a pretty decent short interest even despite the recent run, earnings should be out in the next two days so any report in line with current uptrend in earnings and this one will still have some good room to run. Lets make it a great week! -R
How have you been doing over the past 4 weeks?
Overall pretty decent thanks mainly to MNKD which has broken out and is up over 150% since I first mentioned it (closed today @ 7.65) short interest as of 5/31 remained very high at 45 mill. shares so still a lot of room in the tank for this one. Partnering or takeover talk has a minimum buyout price @ $26.00..but I would say that is low should they get the anticipated FDA approval of their Diabetes treatment which could end up being the first treatment protocol recommended by the ADA. Still a risk that it doesn't get approved so need to hedge any long positions with some cheap puts. SNFCA holding in the 7+ area with a still decent short position although it has dropped a bit. ONVO and ASTX have pulled back with the overall market and OPK still trading between 6.50-7.00 range as the CEO continues to insider buy. Looking at starting two new positions, SNE as the new playstation should fare much better than the new XBOX according to my sources also PHMM Peregrine which took a large hit a couple of months back but has different trials going on that have shown positive results. Also looking at RDN & MTG as the private mortgage insurers should get some decent increase in underwriting new policies due to the new FHA guidelines for Mortgage Insurance now being for the life of the loan. AAPL did trade down to the 425 area bounced and is now treading in a range from 425-450. Off to the poker tables, thinking of a last longer bet with Okie in the Seniors championship at the WSOP lol.
Reb, my scottrade screen for ONVO shows an ask of 4.09 with a size of 2,050,000. The bid is 4.08 and bid size is 50,000.
Could that be right? That would put the volume at over 5 times? Is that one seller or a group of sellers at 4.09?
Thanks for your help
Not sure how much more it will climb going to NYSE on Thursday? Just went over 5.00
Yes it was a nice move to today, will be interesting to see if it can hold the gains but moving up 26% higher on significant above average daily volume is a very nice move. The one I'm really watching over the next 4-6 weeks is MNKD as they have completed their phase III trials on their Diabetes therapy for both type I and type II, which uses an inhaler the size of a whistle instead of either shots or oral meds. The anticipation is high that it will show positive results, gain a potential Big Pharma partner, and get approval. Been riding this one since the 2.00 area, currently up to 6.80 area after a pretty nice run up and working sideways currently prior to the Aug. results. There is still a lot of doubters on this one and as a result has a 30% short position which could get cooked if things fall the right way. IMO the risk/reward is heavily +EV from current price and it could be hedged very cheaply with out of the money puts for the faint of heart. Currently sitting with shares and options equiv. to 17k/shares if that tells you how much I'm betting on this one...will either be a boom or bust but right now the reports are that the trials went well (someone that was in the trial has stated that it was the best they ever felt as far as a treatment for their disease) fwiw. Guess we'll see
Also, It closed over $5.00 today. Dubbs feels it will not go any higher. Your thoughts?
I am thinking it will be a great buyout candidate..
Thanks again!
The move to the NYSE gives them a lot more credibility as a viable entity, they must of had their reasons for moving there as opposed to the broader Nasdaq. I remain a long term holder, it's just one of those that I tucked away as they continue to develop their technology.
ONVO continues to build momentum, now over 7.00, following is an article that motley fool put out, really doesn't say much that we already didn't know but I do like the youtube video of the 3D bio printer, pretty cool stuff. Also MNKD has built a nice base in the high 6's and is looking like it is ready to resume its uptrend with their phase III trial results looming in Aug. OPK & ASTX have also resumed their uptrends as well after backing and filling. Enjoy the all star break fellas.
Forgot to add the link to the ONVO article: http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/07/15/is-organovo-for-real.aspx
Just checked my brokerage and your little treasure ONVO sitting @ 7.083 @ the moment. Totally forgot I tailed you on this a while back. Whats my exit point here buddy?
Coops, depends on your entry point, what I would recommend is to ideally take your initial investment out (hopefully you have more than doubled) and let the rest ride longer term with some loose trailing stops, hope that helps
Coops, what did you end up doing? currently sits around 7.50 what was your orig. buy in?
lol, i bought a house this weekend so havent even looked at my brokerage account.
my entry was 3.83, sits @ 7.43 now. Im still holding.
Thanks Again
LOL, BOL with the house, hopefully when all is said and done you can end up paying it off with this puppy ;-)
Thank TheReb, not me. Hes the stock guru, i tailed him also.
No worries, I just hope a ton of people made some $$$ on it ;-)...Coops, I know you trade options so look this one over and tell me what you think as far as +EV....MNKD is about 3-4 weeks from announcing their trial results on their diabetes therapy. Most are anticipating that they were successful but there is always the chance it comes out not good which in their case would most likely wipe the company out at this point. If successful, they will most likely get FDA approval and the shares should pop accordingly with their break through treatment....so I was looking at a diagonal put spread, buying the sep 6 strike puts and selling the jan '15 7 strike puts which would net approx. 275.00 per contract, if the news is good the time premium should not matter that much as the stock would most likely move into the teens, if the news is bad you can't get too hurt because the sep's would most likely be in the full money...what do you think, it is a unique situation based on knowing the timeline of the pivotal event (which should be second week of Aug.)
Benny, in case you didn't see this, looks like they are not going to pursue US online gaming strategy... http://www.cnbc.com/id/100914463
It's still there minger
http://www.bettingtalk.com/forum/showthread.php/136786-can-we-discuss-stock-market-on-here/page18?highlight=discuss+stock+market
As far as updates on the equities that I mentioned most frequently earlier they go as follows (I will copy and post in the original thread as well to bring that one up to date and reactivate it now that the sites have consolidated and summer is over)
ONVO just had Roche discuss using their liver cells so that among other events have garnered some attention...there are those that are still skeptical but it continues to attract buyers on any dips and holds the mid to upper 5 area fairly well. I still hold a long position.
MNKD is getting ready to submit their NDA (New Drug Application) on Afrezza and I have my largest holding in this company. The short interest is huge at just near 50 mill shares and after their successful phase III trials they raised 160 mill in a four tranche financing based on reaching certain milestones of which they have already reached the first 2 which translated into 80 mill. They also hired Greenhill Capital to act on its behalf as their agent in negotiations with potential partners with Big Pharma....currently trading at the 6 handle...my initial target is 10 and longer term into the 20's...if you care to know more about them let me know but that is a quick summary on their current scenario.
ASTX has received a tender offer see link http://investor.astx.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=788931 which translates to 8.50/sh when I first mentioned them they were trading at 6.05 and then subsequently 5.60 where I stated I was adding to my position...hope some tailed.
OPK has traded up to the 9 handle and currently sits just under @ 8.70 area....continue to hold long and in the money call options (Jan '14 7's) had originally recommended this back in the mid 4's.
SNFCA currently sitting in the low 6's, this pretty much has been the only laggard of the bunch...I still currently hold long.
Just an FYI for those following...I added another 5k shares of MNKD today (currently at 15k shares and 160 Jan/Feb'14 7 strike calls , as we get closer to the NDA filing and possible partnership announcement I feel this has consolidated at these levels in anticipation of its next leg up.
So far so good.
Thanks again!
Minger, here are a couple of links that show just how easy and convenient their therapy is compared to the needles and multiple sticks currently required for diabetics...also what is actually a more important factor is the reduced amount of hypoglycemic incidents with Afrezza compared to Novolog and other current insulins due to its short tail and rapid acting capabilities. The first video is someone who was actually in their clinical trials and does not want to go back on Novolog, he set up the you tube video to show how quick and easy it is to use the inhaler. The second video shows how effective it was in conjunction with an artificial pancreas in creating a more normal lifestyle for type 1 diabetics.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqU8jYpkKuM&feature=player_detailpage
http://www.sansum.org/artificialpancreasvideo/
Pretty incredible stuff....obviously I fully expect it to get FDA approval (of course nothing is 100% guaranteed except death and taxes ;-) and I also expect it to become the protocol for prandial (mealtime) dosing for most if not all type 2 diabetics as they will comply much more with this treatment as opposed to sticking themselves. Take it fwiw -R
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1714562-2-high-yield-plays-for-falling-interest-rates?source=email_authors_alerts&ifp=0
Nice yield...just like the "original" RAS
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1719162-2-more-bold-speculative-biotech-plays?source=email_authors_alerts&ifp=0
LOL, I presume you're talking about the suggestion in the comments section...no that wasn't me, there are some good articles on it on SA, the one who seems to know quite a bit on them is George Rho. I'm in at the 2's and up, added last week...still think there is way good +EV on this one.