interesting day in the market today....after hitting the highs yesterday the market really retreated! are guys taking profits and running? (my mind is set on being negative in this market, pissing against the wind)
Reb, by the way I am still tracking ONVO, the company thats the leader in this space DDD has tripled in price and is profitable, they may be the pioneer that ONVO can emulate.
Yesterday was the first real crack in the foundation as far as a beginning of a pullback IMO, my target is 1425 area (in S&P index) for a gap to be filled that was left on the charts when we gapped up on the open between the end of Dec and the beginning of Jan. this would put us in line for a nice much needed correction after the steady run up. I'm pretty loaded up right now with the SPY puts through different expirations through the end of Mar. and will scalp on the way down. At the same time I will look to enter into positions on companies that I like longer term by either selling puts as the premiums pick up with the pick up in volatility. As far as ONVO, here are two links that pertain to 3D printing. One is taking a look at the "bubble" aspect of the large increases in share prices that have taken place as you alluded to regarding the tripling in DDD. The other is about ONVO'S partnering up with another company regarding 3D tissue samples. I'm not sure about the other 3D company's justification of their respective run ups but I still think ONVO has great potential with their use of the technology in the medical field (again from a very speculative play point of view)
Lousy news out of EUROPE and CHINA and JAPAN this morning...Could be a very bad day...CORRECTION should not be over 5%...BTW am buying CITICORP today...w2w
Lousy news out of EUROPE and CHINA and JAPAN this morning...Could be a very bad day...CORRECTION should not be over 5%...BTW am buying CITICORP today...w2w
The financials have been one of the leaders on the way up, they will be instrumental in signaling how far off the market corrects...personally, I like MS and am looking to get back into it down around its 50 day MA of 21 (currently sitting just above 23) like it better as they should benefit from continued M&A activity along with getting their balance sheet in stronger shape.
S&P500 had an “outside trading day” yesterday, with the open and day’s high above, the close and day’s low below those of previous day; based on chart, this may suggest an end to the recent uptrend, with MACD crossing lower from overbought conditions last observed in March and Sept., when S&P began corrections of 11% and 9%, respectively.
Quietly bouncing after Fed's Bullard came to a momentary rescue by stating they will continue with their easy policy for quite awhile...we'll see if the 1500 area (former resistance on S&P) can now act/hold as support...it was breached momentarily yesterday but with heavy open interest in the index options centered on and around the key psychological areas it will take something substantial to get it going in one direction or the other from this point. Volatility shot up from the low 12 area to hit 16 yesterday on the VIX (Volatility Index) and lies currently just under 15...if it can't hold the 15 level then that would most likely coincide with another test of the recent highs around 1530 on the S&P, and depending on how much strength and conviction there is at that point will determine if in fact the last two days were the beginning of a long awaited correction or just more bear trapping. My suspicion is we started the topping process into the end of the month and Mar. will be the month that shakes out any weak longs. There is still a lot of money waiting for a pullback to get back in the game but what usually happens is the correction looks so scary that they say wait a minute maybe this is going further than I thought. So there will be those that will think they should get in at the first support area (1490) until it doesn't hold and the next leg down will hit the (1475) zone may get a bounce there...but that should be a false bottom IMO, at which point I think we'll see 1425 gap filled and a healthy correction satisfied. Obviously the market never moves the way you think it will but this would be ideally where I think it should end up at this juncture. Lets see how it pans out. Other markets to watch as validation of any breakout would be the benchmark 10yr. Treasury still at the 2% area, if it can't push and hold above then that would be an indication of the equity market topping as well. A move above will confirm more asset allocation from risk adverse to risk tolerance. The currency market has the dollar moving up vs. the Euro and the higher the dollar goes will also lend to more pressure on equities. Energy markets have looked soft and that would be another indication that economic growth has/is stalling, this along with any weakness in financials will show that funds have stopped rotation from one sector to another and will also confirm a pullback has started. Having said all that, let's get em this weekend on the hardwood! -R
Quietly bouncing after Fed's Bullard came to a momentary rescue by stating they will continue with their easy policy for quite awhile...we'll see if the 1500 area (former resistance on S&P) can now act/hold as support...it was breached momentarily yesterday but with heavy open interest in the index options centered on and around the key psychological areas it will take something substantial to get it going in one direction or the other from this point. Volatility shot up from the low 12 area to hit 16 yesterday on the VIX (Volatility Index) and lies currently just under 15...if it can't hold the 15 level then that would most likely coincide with another test of the recent highs around 1530 on the S&P, and depending on how much strength and conviction there is at that point will determine if in fact the last two days were the beginning of a long awaited correction or just more bear trapping. My suspicion is we started the topping process into the end of the month and Mar. will be the month that shakes out any weak longs. There is still a lot of money waiting for a pullback to get back in the game but what usually happens is the correction looks so scary that they say wait a minute maybe this is going further than I thought. So there will be those that will think they should get in at the first support area (1490) until it doesn't hold and the next leg down will hit the (1475) zone may get a bounce there...but that should be a false bottom IMO, at which point I think we'll see 1425 gap filled and a healthy correction satisfied. Obviously the market never moves the way you think it will but this would be ideally where I think it should end up at this juncture. Lets see how it pans out. Other markets to watch as validation of any breakout would be the benchmark 10yr. Treasury still at the 2% area, if it can't push and hold above then that would be an indication of the equity market topping as well. A move above will confirm more asset allocation from risk adverse to risk tolerance. The currency market has the dollar moving up vs. the Euro and the higher the dollar goes will also lend to more pressure on equities. Energy markets have looked soft and that would be another indication that economic growth has/is stalling, this along with any weakness in financials will show that funds have stopped rotation from one sector to another and will also confirm a pullback has started. Having said all that, let's get em this weekend on the hardwood! -R
Mon. morning, the VIX dropped momentarily below 15 which coincided with a rise up to the 1525 area on the SPX (S&P500 index) no follow through so now momentum from fridays rally is waning and as I write this the VIX is back over 15. Treasuries are up (yield down below 2% on 10yr.) dollar is up and financials and energy are lagging. AAPL continues to trade under 450...we also move closer to the sequester date with both sides jawboning their typical rhetoric. Suspect another poke at 1500 level on SPX is coming sooner than later. Another manufacturing index came in weaker than expected so fundamental indications are showing a stalling in recovery activity as well. OPK has retested its highs today and is holding in the 7.25 area, if you had entered in under 5 I would take 50% of position off the table and let the rest ride a bit as I am still longer term bullish on the company. ONVO has drifted down to the low 4's as it continues to consolidate it's nice run up from the low 2's. I still like a spec play in it as well as MNKD which seems to be building a nice base at the 2.5 area to spring from as the clock moves closer to them winding up their Phase III trials for re-submission to the FDA for approval of AFREZZA. SNFCA which I rode up from 2 to 12.65 (kept going to 15.60 area) has had a sharp pullback and is nearing my re entry target of 7.50-8.00 area where I will re-establish a long position. That sums it up for now... GL this week! -R
Doesn't always happen like this but the poke did take place and it went through like a hot knife through butter...not only did it not hold but the SPX went down and closed at the lows right at the first support I mentioned in the 1490 area...pending the overnights and open tomorrow if it doesn't hold and bounce well we could see the 1475 area fairly quickly...remember corrections look ugly when you're in the middle of them and this market has not seen one of more than 3% in quite awhile. Had you purchased the puts I mentioned with the MAR expiry's you would be sitting in great shape with them now being in the money (under 149) so they now should move 1:1 with the downdraft. Things to watch for tomorrow...VIX finished up right at 19 an increase 34% from fridays close...expect a test of 20 tomorrow, XLF (financial ETF) closed under 17.50 and the 10yr. Treas. closed just under 1.87% a huge downward move in yield as money moved back to safety as also seen in a $20+ move in Gold. The Italian Bond market makes Greece's look like an ant in the scheme of things and if their rates start to rise out of control it would put another big (enormous) challenge in front of the markets.
Support held at the 1490 area for now and with some positive economic numbers out this am. see a small rally back to key 1500 area, not being confirmed however by the bond market or financials which causes this rise to be suspect. VIX has calmed down temporarily to the breakout 15.00 area which should act along with the treasuries and financials as good gauge's on this bounce as to how far it will go and for how long. If there is no follow through I will be adding to my put positions in anticipation of another test of the recent lows around 1490. GL and GT today!
Support held at the 1490 area for now and with some positive economic numbers out this am. see a small rally back to key 1500 area, not being confirmed however by the bond market or financials which causes this rise to be suspect. VIX has calmed down temporarily to the breakout 15.00 area which should act along with the treasuries and financials as good gauge's on this bounce as to how far it will go and for how long. If there is no follow through I will be adding to my put positions in anticipation of another test of the recent lows around 1490. GL and GT today!
Like heroin to the addict, Bernanke signaled he is still on the side of longer term quantitative easing...this has caused the addicts to cheer on the mantra of "don't fight the fed"...personally I think it will be short lived and with short memory as we test the upper end again here...opened new position (20 contracts) on the Mar28 expiry's at 149 strike @ 1.40 here and will look to add on any light volume rally to all time highs on the indexes. The indicators I've mentioned previously have not shown any relative strength on this rally today, so it still remains suspect IMO.
Like heroin to the addict, Bernanke signaled he is still on the side of longer term quantitative easing...this has caused the addicts to cheer on the mantra of "don't fight the fed"...personally I think it will be short lived and with short memory as we test the upper end again here...opened new position (20 contracts) on the Mar28 expiry's at 149 strike @ 1.40 here and will look to add on any light volume rally to all time highs on the indexes. The indicators I've mentioned previously have not shown any relative strength on this rally today, so it still remains suspect IMO.
Today's Headline: Stocks Rise, Dow Within 50 Points of All-Time High
Today's volume of 211,487,000 shares is on pace to be much lighter than $SPX.X's 10-day average volume of 523,881,000 shares. This is termed light when talking about daily volume...not what you want to see when making new 5 yr. highs and approaching all time highs, unless there is some catalyst/spark that causes an explosion through those highs this remains a very suspect rally. There are divergences taking hold in most if not all momentum indicators, what this means (and I know there are others that know what I'm talking about but for those that do not follow the markets on a regular basis) is that compared to the recent run ups to this point, this current run up has underlying indications that are not reinforcing/confirming the price action that is taking place. A lot of times you get a market that reaches or touches a previous long term high (or low for that matter) and it gets an initial rejection which is what took place the beginning of this week, only to try and recapture that high or low mark...the recapture needs to be on conviction which currently it is not showing...that is where the weak link is in this market right now IMO. As stated adding (adding) to current Mar28 expiry's position @ 1.05 if/when it's offered (currently @ 1.11)
Today's Headline: Stocks Rise, Dow Within 50 Points of All-Time High
Today's volume of 211,487,000 shares is on pace to be much lighter than $SPX.X's 10-day average volume of 523,881,000 shares. This is termed light when talking about daily volume...not what you want to see when making new 5 yr. highs and approaching all time highs, unless there is some catalyst/spark that causes an explosion through those highs this remains a very suspect rally. There are divergences taking hold in most if not all momentum indicators, what this means (and I know there are others that know what I'm talking about but for those that do not follow the markets on a regular basis) is that compared to the recent run ups to this point, this current run up has underlying indications that are not reinforcing/confirming the price action that is taking place. A lot of times you get a market that reaches or touches a previous long term high (or low for that matter) and it gets an initial rejection which is what took place the beginning of this week, only to try and recapture that high or low mark...the recapture needs to be on conviction which currently it is not showing...that is where the weak link is in this market right now IMO. As stated adding (adding) to current Mar28 expiry's position @ 1.05 if/when it's offered (currently @ 1.11)
Wow, that was an ugly close...complete reversal from the highs to close at the lows of the session/day and lower than yesterday. Btw, those puts finished @1.52...tomorrow is the first day of month, usually the fund managers put money to work on the first day of month which is suppose to lend support to the market...should be interesting to see how tomorrow goes...ok back to hoops
VIX was hanging around 14.25 area while the market was reaching towards the new all time high, last week it was down around 12 area. That was one of the indices that was not confirming the rally...also bond market was getting bid all day and the financials were not impressive as the XLF didn't muster much higher than 17.65.
On a side note, BTD...moment of truth has arrived for SDCJF..touched that 1.13, lets see if it can punch through and hold...told ya I would keep an eye on it ;-)
Yeah, SDCJF hit that old high of $1.13 on huge volume-- now has wallered off on low volume last 2 days. By the way-- their takeover of Texon was approved (actually merger-- Sundance got all of Texon's Eagle Ford properties-- deal done with stock). So now you have a company with zero debt, a bunch of cash in bank, good production from North Dakota Bakken, cheap vertical wells in Wyoming Wattenberg, working on proving up their large Mississippian properties in Oklahoma, and now good production from Texas Eagle Ford. I think they get bought out sooner rather than later.
And the star of the bunch ( I'm looking at the $3-4 dollar range for this one)-- SDCJF-- Sundance Energy-- .85
If anyone's interested, I can give you a number of stocks under $5 drilling in the Bakken in North Dakota and the Eagle Ford in Texas-- as well as the Permian Basin in Texas.
You your own due diligence.
Update--
MLOOF's West Texas wells have not done too well, and stock price has fallen to .31-- I'm out of this one.
LVLEF-- stock ran to $1.06, backed off, and has been sitting in the mid-ninety cent range for last month or so. Recently dropped below .90. Today at .85-- It's a buy anywhere below .90. They have large acreage in Eastern Permian Basin with several formations, of which the Cline looks most interesting. Several majors are drilling right next door to Lynden's properties.
AZZEF is at .52-- they keep plugging away with their cheap vertical wells in West Texas. Each well comingles production from 5-8 formations.
This one currently at $7.02-- VERY thinly traded ADR's. Every time there's a little buying it runs up-- best to chip at it with 100-200 share blocks. Looks like a buy between $6.90 and $7.10. They are drilling very cheap Mississippian vertical wells in Oklahoma-- as well as having small interest in Range's horizontal wells. Looks like their property is in the "sweet spot" of the play.
Has breached this trendline in after market session after their earning announcement, the weekly close is more important and how it gets met when trading opens in the am. but this 10% move down will be painful for a lot of different longs (IRA's, Mutual Funds, 401k's, etc) also the recent buyers that went long may bail also. My guess is at this point this could be a catalyst for the correction that a lot have been waiting for. Very possible for this to target the gap mentioned at 380 now. So would still wait if anyone was thinking of opening a position IMO.
AAPL testing 425 support area, downtrend still intact, still targeting ultimate downside of 375-380 to fill the last gap before the up move...
No nothing about stocks but my brother who does ....just bought A LOT of alcola AA at 8 bucks or something ....tells me with all the cars and planes and everything else going to made with alum that its a great buy with a little div as well....any thoughts if i should buy or not...thanks in advance.
No nothing about stocks but my brother who does ....just bought A LOT of alcola AA at 8 bucks or something ....tells me with all the cars and planes and everything else going to made with alum that its a great buy with a little div as well....any thoughts if i should buy or not...thanks in advance.
Been under the weather and just saw this Jets, I am in the camp of this market sorely needing a correction before I would enter any new positions other than some protection from any downswing. Alcoa is what is termed a cyclical stock and some could argue we're in the latter stages of this recent uptrend. It has not participated in the bull run up to this point so personally I would wait and see how things shake out over the next month before dipping my toe in it if I were you, but maybe your brother knows something I don't. I'm just speaking from experience as Alcoa has never been a company that I could get too excited about. If you're looking for something which pays a decent dividend and has upside I would look at a couple of the pharma's such as MRK or PFE, they pay 3%+ and have decent upside with some products in their pipelines and also are what would be defined as defensive plays as they're less dependant on global economic issues. Hope this helps -R
thanks reb ,HP....Am thinking someone told him to buy it ,what I meant to say was that he has the resources to play the market which doesn't mean he knows anything about stocks. I think he bought it the 4th and now is up 3%.
Has anyone heard anything about a stock called Zynga?
Popular play on the potential online poker situation. Was sitting in the low 2's until they started filing for approvals, still a spec play because the thought is if legislation goes through for it the current online poker sites and casino's will be huge players. They have other stuff going on as well with their Farmville deal as a series for TV I believe. Know a couple of people that bought some on the online poker theme/hype
Reb, any thoughts on the onvo sell off today? Under 4?
No news that I could find, looks technical in nature breaking below the 4 level that has acted as support. This is a longer term holding for me, I'm in at much lower levels (2.17-2.20), The market in general is overdue for correction, it is hitting many upside targets here in the 1550-1570 area on the S&P 500 which is the former top/highs from '07 before the financial crisis hit. I still suspect we will correct back to the 1475 area on the index within the next few weeks. Minger, what price are you in on ONVO?
Reb, I am in onvo at a average cost of 2.68. So I have some room here.
I truly appreciate your input!
Ok, so minger, everyone's situation is unique unto themselves. Not sure how much the $$ mean to you from a relative standpoint so this is what I would recommend. If it is totally discretionary and not a significant amount to you, I would stay long term. You can never go wrong taking a profit, so one approach would be to sell a portion here say 25%-50% of holding, if it dips further you can always re purchase at a lower price, if it holds and moves higher you can let the remaining position ride. Preservation of capital is THE most important principle when investing/trading/sportsbetting as well. It did sell off on decent volume but it's where it finishes the day that counts more. As I type this it is trading @ 3.93 so it looks like it may try to move back and test/re-capture 4.00. There would be nothing wrong with selling a percentage at that level and book a profit along with reducing exposure until you see how it trades over the next couple of sessions. Good luck going forward -R
Comments
Yesterday was the first real crack in the foundation as far as a beginning of a pullback IMO, my target is 1425 area (in S&P index) for a gap to be filled that was left on the charts when we gapped up on the open between the end of Dec and the beginning of Jan. this would put us in line for a nice much needed correction after the steady run up. I'm pretty loaded up right now with the SPY puts through different expirations through the end of Mar. and will scalp on the way down. At the same time I will look to enter into positions on companies that I like longer term by either selling puts as the premiums pick up with the pick up in volatility. As far as ONVO, here are two links that pertain to 3D printing. One is taking a look at the "bubble" aspect of the large increases in share prices that have taken place as you alluded to regarding the tripling in DDD. The other is about ONVO'S partnering up with another company regarding 3D tissue samples. I'm not sure about the other 3D company's justification of their respective run ups but I still think ONVO has great potential with their use of the technology in the medical field (again from a very speculative play point of view)
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1202341-is-3d-printing-a-huge-bubble?source=yahoo
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/organovo-partners-zenbio-create-3d-130500585.html
The financials have been one of the leaders on the way up, they will be instrumental in signaling how far off the market corrects...personally, I like MS and am looking to get back into it down around its 50 day MA of 21 (currently sitting just above 23) like it better as they should benefit from continued M&A activity along with getting their balance sheet in stronger shape.
Mon. morning, the VIX dropped momentarily below 15 which coincided with a rise up to the 1525 area on the SPX (S&P500 index) no follow through so now momentum from fridays rally is waning and as I write this the VIX is back over 15. Treasuries are up (yield down below 2% on 10yr.) dollar is up and financials and energy are lagging. AAPL continues to trade under 450...we also move closer to the sequester date with both sides jawboning their typical rhetoric. Suspect another poke at 1500 level on SPX is coming sooner than later. Another manufacturing index came in weaker than expected so fundamental indications are showing a stalling in recovery activity as well. OPK has retested its highs today and is holding in the 7.25 area, if you had entered in under 5 I would take 50% of position off the table and let the rest ride a bit as I am still longer term bullish on the company. ONVO has drifted down to the low 4's as it continues to consolidate it's nice run up from the low 2's. I still like a spec play in it as well as MNKD which seems to be building a nice base at the 2.5 area to spring from as the clock moves closer to them winding up their Phase III trials for re-submission to the FDA for approval of AFREZZA. SNFCA which I rode up from 2 to 12.65 (kept going to 15.60 area) has had a sharp pullback and is nearing my re entry target of 7.50-8.00 area where I will re-establish a long position. That sums it up for now... GL this week! -R
Like heroin to the addict, Bernanke signaled he is still on the side of longer term quantitative easing...this has caused the addicts to cheer on the mantra of "don't fight the fed"...personally I think it will be short lived and with short memory as we test the upper end again here...opened new position (20 contracts) on the Mar28 expiry's at 149 strike @ 1.40 here and will look to add on any light volume rally to all time highs on the indexes. The indicators I've mentioned previously have not shown any relative strength on this rally today, so it still remains suspect IMO.
Today's Headline: Stocks Rise, Dow Within 50 Points of All-Time High
Today's volume of 211,487,000 shares is on pace to be much lighter than $SPX.X's 10-day average volume of 523,881,000 shares. This is termed light when talking about daily volume...not what you want to see when making new 5 yr. highs and approaching all time highs, unless there is some catalyst/spark that causes an explosion through those highs this remains a very suspect rally. There are divergences taking hold in most if not all momentum indicators, what this means (and I know there are others that know what I'm talking about but for those that do not follow the markets on a regular basis) is that compared to the recent run ups to this point, this current run up has underlying indications that are not reinforcing/confirming the price action that is taking place. A lot of times you get a market that reaches or touches a previous long term high (or low for that matter) and it gets an initial rejection which is what took place the beginning of this week, only to try and recapture that high or low mark...the recapture needs to be on conviction which currently it is not showing...that is where the weak link is in this market right now IMO. As stated adding (adding) to current Mar28 expiry's position @ 1.05 if/when it's offered (currently @ 1.11)
Wow, that was an ugly close...complete reversal from the highs to close at the lows of the session/day and lower than yesterday. Btw, those puts finished @1.52...tomorrow is the first day of month, usually the fund managers put money to work on the first day of month which is suppose to lend support to the market...should be interesting to see how tomorrow goes...ok back to hoops
VIX was hanging around 14.25 area while the market was reaching towards the new all time high, last week it was down around 12 area. That was one of the indices that was not confirming the rally...also bond market was getting bid all day and the financials were not impressive as the XLF didn't muster much higher than 17.65.
On a side note, BTD...moment of truth has arrived for SDCJF..touched that 1.13, lets see if it can punch through and hold...told ya I would keep an eye on it ;-)
Update--
MLOOF's West Texas wells have not done too well, and stock price has fallen to .31-- I'm out of this one.
LVLEF-- stock ran to $1.06, backed off, and has been sitting in the mid-ninety cent range for last month or so. Recently dropped below .90. Today at .85-- It's a buy anywhere below .90. They have large acreage in Eastern Permian Basin with several formations, of which the Cline looks most interesting. Several majors are drilling right next door to Lynden's properties.
AZZEF is at .52-- they keep plugging away with their cheap vertical wells in West Texas. Each well comingles production from 5-8 formations.
Check out their websites for complete info.
This one currently at $7.02-- VERY thinly traded ADR's. Every time there's a little buying it runs up-- best to chip at it with 100-200 share blocks. Looks like a buy between $6.90 and $7.10. They are drilling very cheap Mississippian vertical wells in Oklahoma-- as well as having small interest in Range's horizontal wells. Looks like their property is in the "sweet spot" of the play.
AAPL testing 425 support area, downtrend still intact, still targeting ultimate downside of 375-380 to fill the last gap before the up move...
avg vol 500K-ish
millions going to be sold in the next few weeks.
then what?
Been under the weather and just saw this Jets, I am in the camp of this market sorely needing a correction before I would enter any new positions other than some protection from any downswing. Alcoa is what is termed a cyclical stock and some could argue we're in the latter stages of this recent uptrend. It has not participated in the bull run up to this point so personally I would wait and see how things shake out over the next month before dipping my toe in it if I were you, but maybe your brother knows something I don't. I'm just speaking from experience as Alcoa has never been a company that I could get too excited about. If you're looking for something which pays a decent dividend and has upside I would look at a couple of the pharma's such as MRK or PFE, they pay 3%+ and have decent upside with some products in their pipelines and also are what would be defined as defensive plays as they're less dependant on global economic issues. Hope this helps -R
Popular play on the potential online poker situation. Was sitting in the low 2's until they started filing for approvals, still a spec play because the thought is if legislation goes through for it the current online poker sites and casino's will be huge players. They have other stuff going on as well with their Farmville deal as a series for TV I believe. Know a couple of people that bought some on the online poker theme/hype
No news that I could find, looks technical in nature breaking below the 4 level that has acted as support. This is a longer term holding for me, I'm in at much lower levels (2.17-2.20), The market in general is overdue for correction, it is hitting many upside targets here in the 1550-1570 area on the S&P 500 which is the former top/highs from '07 before the financial crisis hit. I still suspect we will correct back to the 1475 area on the index within the next few weeks. Minger, what price are you in on ONVO?
I truly appreciate your input!
Ok, so minger, everyone's situation is unique unto themselves. Not sure how much the $$ mean to you from a relative standpoint so this is what I would recommend. If it is totally discretionary and not a significant amount to you, I would stay long term. You can never go wrong taking a profit, so one approach would be to sell a portion here say 25%-50% of holding, if it dips further you can always re purchase at a lower price, if it holds and moves higher you can let the remaining position ride. Preservation of capital is THE most important principle when investing/trading/sportsbetting as well. It did sell off on decent volume but it's where it finishes the day that counts more. As I type this it is trading @ 3.93 so it looks like it may try to move back and test/re-capture 4.00. There would be nothing wrong with selling a percentage at that level and book a profit along with reducing exposure until you see how it trades over the next couple of sessions. Good luck going forward -R