You could make perceived adjustments for the market being tougher, but otherwise (whatever the correct amount is) it hasn't changed from previous years. Cost per pick (not season) is what matters when determining the minimum bet size to justify a purchase. Again, it has gone down from last year, not up.
You could make perceived adjustments for the market being tougher, but otherwise (whatever the correct amount is) it hasn't changed from previous years. Cost per pick (not season) is what matters when determining the minimum bet size to justify a purchase. Again, it has gone down from last year, not up.
How much do you recommend to bet per unit for if it's 6k for every play?
We're having our worst CBB season ever performance wise, but it is nothing to do with the credit system or volume.
It's certainly still very early, but a lot of successful cappers and groups are having terrible seasons, as I'm sure you are well aware. From a tout perspective, guys like yourself, StevieY, even Dr Bob, who are extremely talented and have won for years, can't seem to win right now. Guys like myself and Dr H who are newer to the game can't win either. It doesn't stop at touts. A lot of the bigger groups are experiencing terrible seasons by their standards. People who usually win and win at high rates are running terribly this year. It's actually quite remarkable. And unfortunate.
I'd be interested in what you guys are seeing on your end as far as market conditions and I guess basically, outside of variance, what you think is the cause for the poor results thus far. College basketball has always had the perception of being a market where you can find tons of opportunities in smaller conferences, especially early in the year. Do your homework, have a good model, and you'll be +EV in early season CBB. Are those days just flat out over? There are so many talented people out there and the market just seems to have caught up on that type of stuff. Public knowledge on CBB is at an all time high. (Thanks internet!). The market just seems so crazy smart as opposed to even 3, 4 years ago when I started getting into it seriously. Of course markets are getting more and more difficult to beat. But has the spike in CBB over the last year or two been far greater than any we've seen before?
Also, of course y'all "love" the new credit system, all you have to do to make more money is release more games. The clients have no idea how much the service will run them for the year. I will guarantee everyone, that volume from now till atleast mid Febuary will be high. Try and get the units back that your down and put more money in your pocket.
Winup- You will have your money back in mid June. LMAO!!!
to go there it will cost me 362 more credit so i don't see how iam gonna make my money back that why i decide to :surrender: to pay 6k for cbb season it just crazy .
I don't understand all the crying that goes on here all day. This is gambling. Do you think the cost would be 3-6K if you were guaranteed to win 40 units during the season? No, it would be much higher. The reason the service costs what it does is that you are taking a chance that he continues to win at a high rate. Eventually you are going to run into a shit season or he loses his edge. When he hits 40 units, do you expect him to ask you for 10K instead of the 3K you paid? When you pay your 3K or whatever you pay you aren't promised a minimum amount of units. Some of you need to find a new hobby.
to go there it will cost me 362 more credit so i don't see how iam gonna make my money back that why i decide to :surrender: to pay 6k for cbb season it just crazy .
Fucking unreal how bad it is. I feel sorry for ya brother. My RAS days are long gone now. They seem pretty set on this credit system. So for cfb next year, everyone be on the lookout for first half sides, first half totals, full game sides, full game totals, second half sides , second half totals, and team totals. He will have about 35 plays a weekend lol. I just can't afford it. Nor feel like messing with the hassle and stress. I still enjoy following RAS daily, but it's gotten out of my pocket book.
I don't understand all the crying that goes on here all day. This is gambling. Do you think the cost would be 3-6K if you were guaranteed to win 40 units during the season? No, it would be much higher. The reason the service costs what it does is that you are taking a chance that he continues to win at a high rate. Eventually you are going to run into a shit season or he loses his edge. When he hits 40 units, do you expect him to ask you for 10K instead of the 3K you paid? When you pay your 3K or whatever you pay you aren't promised a minimum amount of units. Some of you need to find a new hobby.
Out of curiosity, and by no means do you need to answer this, but how much do you wager on 1 unit of an ras play ?
I don't understand all the crying that goes on here all day. This is gambling. Do you think the cost would be 3-6K if you were guaranteed to win 40 units during the season? No, it would be much higher. The reason the service costs what it does is that you are taking a chance that he continues to win at a high rate. Eventually you are going to run into a shit season or he loses his edge. When he hits 40 units, do you expect him to ask you for 10K instead of the 3K you paid? When you pay your 3K or whatever you pay you aren't promised a minimum amount of units. Some of you need to find a new hobby.
Fucking unreal how bad it is. I feel sorry for ya brother. My RAS days are long gone now. They seem pretty set on this credit system. So for cfb next year, everyone be on the lookout for first half sides, first half totals, full game sides, full game totals, second half sides , second half totals, and team totals. He will have about 35 plays a weekend lol. I just can't afford it. Nor feel like messing with the hassle and stress. I still enjoy following RAS daily, but it's gotten out of my pocket book.
They've played way less games than in years in the past when they did a full season of spreads/totals
golfer, we understand you don't like the credit system. Since you're done with RAS betting, the fact you keep bashing it and making rash "LMAO" comments is proven yet again so much... move on and find something else to bitch about like Kash said. you are done with RAS forever right so why continue the same bullshit talk every day about it? You must have something more important to do in your life???
golfer, we understand you don't like the credit system. Since you're done with RAS betting, the fact you keep bashing it and making rash "LMAO" comments is proven yet again so much... move on and find something else to bitch about like Kash said. you are done with RAS forever right so why continue the same bullshit talk every day about it? You must have something more important to do in your life???
I admit I am bored at the moment. Headed to Vegas tomorrow though and staying till Tuesday. I won't get busy again till about Jan 20th
I don't think the sides market has been any different than any other year. Totals have been a little crazy.
I know people think every win is an easy "great call" win but in a large % of games, there is one or two plays that make the difference in a cover/no cover. All plays are not equal, some may be 60%, some may be 50%. Shit, some may be 70 and some may be 40. You hope those coinflip games even out. If you have an above average(great) year, chances are you had good luck in those games. If you are running bad, chances are you had bad luck in those games. Some people call those games variance. No one can run from that.
There is nothing more powerful than being able to take an unbiased look at yourself. Have you lost your edge or are you just running bad?
I don't think the sides market has been any different than any other year. Totals have been a little crazy.
You hope those coinflip games even out. If you have an above average(great) year, chances are you had good luck in those games. If you are running bad, chances are you had bad luck in those games. Some people call those games variance. No one can run from that.
There is nothing more powerful than being able to take an unbiased look at yourself. Have you lost your edge or are you just running bad?
Not referring to RAS in particular, but this raises an interesting question: how exactly does one decipher whether one still maintains an edge in a constantly adapting market? Beyond introspection, how does one assess if another capper is still +EV.
Simply put, how does one gauge when negative variance ends and negative expected value begins, particularly for someone that might otherwise have been historically +EV? Would love some thoughts on this, fellas...
Yes, it has been a brutal year. Yes, there is legitimate difference of opinion about the credit system. But one thing I think we always need to remember is that RAS is one of few (along with Stevie, Dr. H and a few others) that is transparent about their record. 95% of this industry is comprised of services/people who keep incomplete/inaccurate/self-serving /non-verifiable records of their performance, so you are only guessing how they are doing. This doesn't lessen the pain when losing streaks hit, but at least there is some integrity. (Now let's get hot!)
Not referring to RAS in particular, but this raises an interesting question: how exactly does one decipher whether one still maintains an edge in a constantly adapting market? Beyond introspection, how does one assess if another capper is still +EV.
Simply put, how does one gauge when negative variance ends and negative expected value begins, particularly for someone that might otherwise have been historically +EV? Would love some thoughts on this, fellas...
Everyone will have their own opinions. It's possible to just have a bad year. If I go back and look at a subpar season and next to every loss I see "bad loss", then I need to do some more research, test my model again to see if any parameters change drastically or was it just one of those years. If I see "neutral loss" or especially "coinflip loss" or "brutal loss" next to many of them, I don't worry too much unless the next year is subpar and I see a lot more "neutral" or "bad losses". To do this, you have to be very unbiased. You can't sugarcoat it and say "oh this wasn't a bad loss, i scored first. Who cares if we gave up the next 20 pts and the game was over". If you are unbiased, you will see a good share of bad losses. Now technically, some really aren't bad losses. If two teams play 1000 times, you will see a wide variety of results. The results on the outer edges will be flukey. Those can be interpreted a couple different ways. A few of them, just throw them out. You know when your opponent is shooting 28% from the 3pt line and they go 15-21 against you. A lot of bad losses and too many of the fluke nature, you are picking a lot of teams when they throw out a dud. One year, maybe just really unlucky, but I usually look to see if there is a connection between the teams. I had that happen 3-4 years ago and I think I found a connection using results over a couple years. I haven't been able to test it to see if it is true(will take a lot of time to set up but hopefully will get it done), but I tread lightly in those areas now and it seems to have worked. If it keeps happening year after year, you should be able to find something connected. If not, something isn't working anymore or you are on the very outer edges of bad luck.
You can do that with any capper out there as long as you have info on what happened in the game. It isn't as easy as saying, he had +9.5, he lost by 10, wow, he was unlucky. Doing it this way, using CLV, there is no exact science, just like capping itself, but I will give you an example of how I do it on a small sample of my releases(since the new year).
1/1 Mont st -2 N Dakota Lost 60-67. Trailed most of the game. Bad Loss
1/2 Wash +1.5 Cal. Lost 75-81. Led most o fthe 1st half, some of the 2nd, faded late. Neutral Loss
1/3 Cincy +2 SMU Won 56-50, Trailed early, controlled most of the 2nd half. Solid Win
1/3 Vandy -5 Yale Pushed 79-74 2 OT. Led early, trailed by DD in the 2nd half. Bad Push
1/3 GW/St Joes OV 121 Won 64-60. 47 pt 1st half, foul fest for the win. Bad Win.
1/3 OSU/Ill OV 138.5 Lost 77-61. 73 pt 1st half, 4 pts scored last 3 min, Brutal Loss.
1/3 Oregon ST +9.5 Oregon Lost 59-71. Down 10 with the ball 5 min left, scoreless for the next 4:20, Coinflip/neutral Loss.
1/4 VCU/Fordham UN 138 Won 75-58. Formful, easy win.
1/4 Canisius -3 Manhattan Lost 60-63. Down 3 48 sec left, missed two technical FT's and two layups, don't score again. Neutral Loss1
1/4 UIC +9 Cleveland St. Won 69-74. Deficit most of the game between 2-10, neutral win.
1/5 Mercer -1.5 VMI Won 85-75. Controlled game, easy win.
1/6 CMU +8.5 Toledo. Won 65-62. 1-2 poss game thruout, easy win
1/6 Butler/Prov OV 128.5. Lost 62-66. 65 pt 1st half, Butler misses 3 pointer and uncontested layup at the buzzer. Coinflip loss.
1/7 St Peters +4 Manhattan. Lost 63-68. St Peters down DD 1st half, Manhattan hits 2 FT's 4 sec left, St Peters misses last shot. Coinflip loss1/7
1/7 Ten -1.5 Mis St Won 61-47. Led most of the game, easy win.
1/7 TCU +4 KSU. Lost 53-58. KSU hits two FT's with 7 sec left, TCU misses layup and tip dunk at the buzzer(didnt I just type this ). Coinflip loss(but it was brutal)
1/7 TCU +4 KSU. Lost 53-58. KSU hits two FT's with 7 sec left, TCU misses layup and tip dunk at the buzzer(didnt I just type this ). Coinflip loss(but it was brutal)
just needed u14.5 last minute to win 2h total on that one
StevieY, do you put any stock at all into margin of victory vs the line?
No, not really. Two reasons, first, the bigger your win, the more likely your line was way off too(flukey win vs flukey loss). Line is -5, you think it should be -9, your team wins by 30, good win but the game was either in the outside ranges of results or your line was pretty much as bad as the books. Second, if you play mid-big dogs, you are more likely going to have some big blowout losses. It only counts as 1 loss. If I lose a game by 30 and win two games by 3, I'll take that every day. I'd be more worried if the game by game results for a season start to move away from my line.
I love that argument......How bout this ....... next time you buy something........and you are not happy; go voice your displeasure about the product or service you bought and see how much you enjoy being told " no one forced you to buy it ".
Comments
How much do you recommend to bet per unit for if it's 6k for every play?
2.5 game a day with 55% win rate how long for ras to win 20 unit ?
It's certainly still very early, but a lot of successful cappers and groups are having terrible seasons, as I'm sure you are well aware. From a tout perspective, guys like yourself, StevieY, even Dr Bob, who are extremely talented and have won for years, can't seem to win right now. Guys like myself and Dr H who are newer to the game can't win either. It doesn't stop at touts. A lot of the bigger groups are experiencing terrible seasons by their standards. People who usually win and win at high rates are running terribly this year. It's actually quite remarkable. And unfortunate.
I'd be interested in what you guys are seeing on your end as far as market conditions and I guess basically, outside of variance, what you think is the cause for the poor results thus far. College basketball has always had the perception of being a market where you can find tons of opportunities in smaller conferences, especially early in the year. Do your homework, have a good model, and you'll be +EV in early season CBB. Are those days just flat out over? There are so many talented people out there and the market just seems to have caught up on that type of stuff. Public knowledge on CBB is at an all time high. (Thanks internet!). The market just seems so crazy smart as opposed to even 3, 4 years ago when I started getting into it seriously. Of course markets are getting more and more difficult to beat. But has the spike in CBB over the last year or two been far greater than any we've seen before?
Winup- You will have your money back in mid June. LMAO!!!
to go there it will cost me 362 more credit so i don't see how iam gonna make my money back that why i decide to :surrender: to pay 6k for cbb season it just crazy .
Fucking unreal how bad it is. I feel sorry for ya brother. My RAS days are long gone now. They seem pretty set on this credit system. So for cfb next year, everyone be on the lookout for first half sides, first half totals, full game sides, full game totals, second half sides , second half totals, and team totals. He will have about 35 plays a weekend lol. I just can't afford it. Nor feel like messing with the hassle and stress. I still enjoy following RAS daily, but it's gotten out of my pocket book.
Out of curiosity, and by no means do you need to answer this, but how much do you wager on 1 unit of an ras play ?
I don't. Too much hassle getting action down. Been limited enough at some books and do not want to lose anymore outs.
I'm in the same boat as you pretty much.
the way you talk i know you not subscribe to ras
They've played way less games than in years in the past when they did a full season of spreads/totals
I admit I am bored at the moment. Headed to Vegas tomorrow though and staying till Tuesday. I won't get busy again till about Jan 20th
I know people think every win is an easy "great call" win but in a large % of games, there is one or two plays that make the difference in a cover/no cover. All plays are not equal, some may be 60%, some may be 50%. Shit, some may be 70 and some may be 40. You hope those coinflip games even out. If you have an above average(great) year, chances are you had good luck in those games. If you are running bad, chances are you had bad luck in those games. Some people call those games variance. No one can run from that.
There is nothing more powerful than being able to take an unbiased look at yourself. Have you lost your edge or are you just running bad?
Not referring to RAS in particular, but this raises an interesting question: how exactly does one decipher whether one still maintains an edge in a constantly adapting market? Beyond introspection, how does one assess if another capper is still +EV.
Simply put, how does one gauge when negative variance ends and negative expected value begins, particularly for someone that might otherwise have been historically +EV? Would love some thoughts on this, fellas...
Everyone will have their own opinions. It's possible to just have a bad year. If I go back and look at a subpar season and next to every loss I see "bad loss", then I need to do some more research, test my model again to see if any parameters change drastically or was it just one of those years. If I see "neutral loss" or especially "coinflip loss" or "brutal loss" next to many of them, I don't worry too much unless the next year is subpar and I see a lot more "neutral" or "bad losses". To do this, you have to be very unbiased. You can't sugarcoat it and say "oh this wasn't a bad loss, i scored first. Who cares if we gave up the next 20 pts and the game was over". If you are unbiased, you will see a good share of bad losses. Now technically, some really aren't bad losses. If two teams play 1000 times, you will see a wide variety of results. The results on the outer edges will be flukey. Those can be interpreted a couple different ways. A few of them, just throw them out. You know when your opponent is shooting 28% from the 3pt line and they go 15-21 against you. A lot of bad losses and too many of the fluke nature, you are picking a lot of teams when they throw out a dud. One year, maybe just really unlucky, but I usually look to see if there is a connection between the teams. I had that happen 3-4 years ago and I think I found a connection using results over a couple years. I haven't been able to test it to see if it is true(will take a lot of time to set up but hopefully will get it done), but I tread lightly in those areas now and it seems to have worked. If it keeps happening year after year, you should be able to find something connected. If not, something isn't working anymore or you are on the very outer edges of bad luck.
You can do that with any capper out there as long as you have info on what happened in the game. It isn't as easy as saying, he had +9.5, he lost by 10, wow, he was unlucky. Doing it this way, using CLV, there is no exact science, just like capping itself, but I will give you an example of how I do it on a small sample of my releases(since the new year).
1/1 Mont st -2 N Dakota Lost 60-67. Trailed most of the game. Bad Loss
1/2 Wash +1.5 Cal. Lost 75-81. Led most o fthe 1st half, some of the 2nd, faded late. Neutral Loss
1/3 Cincy +2 SMU Won 56-50, Trailed early, controlled most of the 2nd half. Solid Win
1/3 Vandy -5 Yale Pushed 79-74 2 OT. Led early, trailed by DD in the 2nd half. Bad Push
1/3 GW/St Joes OV 121 Won 64-60. 47 pt 1st half, foul fest for the win. Bad Win.
1/3 OSU/Ill OV 138.5 Lost 77-61. 73 pt 1st half, 4 pts scored last 3 min, Brutal Loss.
1/3 Oregon ST +9.5 Oregon Lost 59-71. Down 10 with the ball 5 min left, scoreless for the next 4:20, Coinflip/neutral Loss.
1/4 VCU/Fordham UN 138 Won 75-58. Formful, easy win.
1/4 Canisius -3 Manhattan Lost 60-63. Down 3 48 sec left, missed two technical FT's and two layups, don't score again. Neutral Loss1
1/4 UIC +9 Cleveland St. Won 69-74. Deficit most of the game between 2-10, neutral win.
1/5 Mercer -1.5 VMI Won 85-75. Controlled game, easy win.
1/6 CMU +8.5 Toledo. Won 65-62. 1-2 poss game thruout, easy win
1/6 Butler/Prov OV 128.5. Lost 62-66. 65 pt 1st half, Butler misses 3 pointer and uncontested layup at the buzzer. Coinflip loss.
1/7 St Peters +4 Manhattan. Lost 63-68. St Peters down DD 1st half, Manhattan hits 2 FT's 4 sec left, St Peters misses last shot. Coinflip loss1/7
1/7 Ten -1.5 Mis St Won 61-47. Led most of the game, easy win.
1/7 TCU +4 KSU. Lost 53-58. KSU hits two FT's with 7 sec left, TCU misses layup and tip dunk at the buzzer(didnt I just type this
just needed u14.5 last minute to win 2h total on that one
No, not really. Two reasons, first, the bigger your win, the more likely your line was way off too(flukey win vs flukey loss). Line is -5, you think it should be -9, your team wins by 30, good win but the game was either in the outside ranges of results or your line was pretty much as bad as the books. Second, if you play mid-big dogs, you are more likely going to have some big blowout losses. It only counts as 1 loss. If I lose a game by 30 and win two games by 3, I'll take that every day.
Gambling is a Great Risk!!!
Integrity
When you charge what he charges, and results are this bad, something needs to be done.
Jobs need to be lost, changes need to be made and clients need to be looked after.
The losses are not even close , the wins are squeakers. Something seriously wrong with this picture.