Betting Talk

Danshan's Humble Pie Plays

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Comments

  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    Record
    10-9 52.63% WL (goal 67.9%)
    units -4.45
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    danshan wrote: »
    I have a few small factors to create that small gap but it is realistic values.

    I also bet the Cards -104 and Milw +114 this to me is value I have no idea what your talking about when you say realistic values. I need help with that statement.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    realistic factors I mean NOT sdql crap like on Tuesdays after a 4 run win or after playing the blue jays on sunday or any of the other crazy crap MOST sdql users use.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    those are all 3 some nice bets brews, bucs and cards, if someone can set lines like that all day, there is literally nothing else you need to do it covers the vig and gives you the vig literally and more on everyone of those bets. NICE
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    If I could use my sdql and set my line like you did on those 3, my sdql would be unbelievable
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    danshan wrote: »
    those are all 3 some nice bets brews, bucs and cards, if someone can set lines like that all day, there is literally nothing else you need to do it covers the vig and gives you the vig literally and more on everyone of those bets. NICE

    This is why I say you need to create your own line and try to be as consistent as possible. Last night I jumped on Milw +130 the line closed I think Milw +160 I was way off and that's going to happen your just trying to get a high % right and if so you really have to be unlucky to lose money long term. But it's easier said then done but laying -170 when you could have gotten -140 at the very least it's just lets say hard to win that way.
    Well good luck. I said before the SDQL isn't useless but it's lets just say limited in what you can do with it to help you stay ahead.
    That diamond digest that you get in your email is trash. The best one I remember was in the NBA and if Boogie committed 6 turnovers in back to back games you bet the Kings in the next game. Would you like to try an explain that one to me. lol Take care Pawn don't get hurt.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    so if i buy a game at -170 and it closes at -186 dont i get value in that line even if it opened at -130?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    Ok here we go, I am hoping it stays below -159 but anyway without delay
    Pirates ML
    bet 1.65u to win 1u
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    Record
    11-9 55% WL (goal 67.9%)
    units -3.45
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    Here we go!
    Cardinals ML
    2.19u to win 1u
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    Record
    12-9 57.14% WL (goal 67.9%)
    units -2.45
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    danshan wrote: »
    record 1-7
    Units -9.6


    still doing really well!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Remember this a month ago!!!!!! Comeback Kid is coming back slowly but surely!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    Cleveland Indians ML
    1.8U to win 1U
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    St Cardinals ML
    1.84u to win 1u
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    Record
    13-10 56.5% WL (goal 67.9%)
    units -3.29
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    Yankees ML
    bet 2.1U to win 1U
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    Record
    14-10 58.3% WL (goal 67.9%)
    units -2.29
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    SF Giants ML
    1.8u to win 1u
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    Record
    15-10 60% WL (goal 67.9%)
    units -1.29
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    CH Cubs ML
    1.69u to win 1u
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    Record
    16-10 61.53% WL (goal 67.9%)
    units -.29
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    with 26 games played what would an average unit count be? I was thinking somewhere around typical juice level like +2.6 units
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited August 2017
    danshan wrote: »
    with 26 games played what would an average unit count be? I was thinking somewhere around typical juice level like +2.6 units

    I don't understand what you're trying to ask.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    TommyL wrote: »
    I don't understand what you're trying to ask.

    I was trying to say a guy who just throws darts at teams on a board after 26 games in theory should be down -2.6 units
    A service like RAS would be at 2.7 units
    so what should i shoot for?
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    danshan wrote: »
    I was trying to say a guy who just throws darts at teams on a board after 26 games in theory should be down -2.6 units
    A service like RAS would be at 2.7 units
    so what should i shoot for?

    No one charges 10% vig nor does anyone have a 10% roi
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    RAS says they do, they say 11% unless I am reading it wrong
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    what is an avg. flip a coin bettor's ROI?
    what is an avg experienced bettor's ROI?
    thanks for any help just trying to get a grasp on what I should be shooting for
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    danshan wrote: »
    what is an avg. flip a coin bettor's ROI?
    what is an avg experienced bettor's ROI?
    thanks for any help just trying to get a grasp on what I should be shooting for

    at -110 expected loss is 4.54% (10/220)

    also, risking 1.8 to win 1 is a risk of 1.8 units not 1

    any professional should be happy around 2% hold
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    so a dart thrower is at -4.54 units after 100 plays
    and a pro should be at +2 units after 100 plays
    is that correct so I understand what you are saying and also I want to say thank you for the time.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited August 2017
    unit could mean anything

    you should expect to lose 4.54% of the amount wagered betting into a -110/-110 lineset. This is going to change at different holds. 100 plays is meangingless
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