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Buffettgambler 2015 MLB Discussion Thread

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  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    His MLB record the last 4 seasons combined is 737-661 +10.27
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    Could it be the rip007 is back. He's a big BG fan and a not so big Dr. Fan

    HIs iq would have had to have increased 5000000% to make either of those posts.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    i would Be pretty surprIsed if that "Giant moron" were willing to forK over his "hArd earned dougH" to create a new User accouNt At this place.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    durito wrote: »
    His MLB record the last 4 seasons combined is 737-661 +10.27

    Thank you, that saves me the trouble because I was just about to sift through all of his old plays. There's no chance you have his line value is there?
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    Oh yea it costs $10, that's rips weekly budget.
  • spiderman77spiderman77 Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    Dr. H wrote: »
    i would Be pretty surprIsed if that "Giant moron" were willing to forK over his "hArd earned dougH" to create a new User accouNt At this place.

    Great guess, very likely IMO.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    Dr. H wrote: »
    Thank you, that saves me the trouble because I was just about to sift through all of his old plays. There's no chance you have his line value is there?

    Nope.
  • barmoycmbarmoycm Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    Lewis has two shut outs at cellular .. nice price.. sale has done well tho
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    Baltimore backers so far at +139 in the 4th inning, including me get this:

    chrysler.gif
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    underwraps wrote: »
    Baltimore backers so far at +139 in the 4th inning, including me get this:

    chrysler.gif

    That was a hell of a good bet.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    Dr. H wrote: »
    That was a hell of a good bet.

    Thanks, but every time I'm on these big movers I've been losing more than winning hopefully it turns around.
  • blackbullblackbull Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    Dr. H wrote: »
    That was a hell of a good bet.

    Yes, it was.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    oh shit, here come another one I played Seattle small play earlier at about 6:30 at +127 now at +104
    The way Im running this one will lose to
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited June 2015
    Dr. H wrote: »
    Ed, I notice that you avoided this question. Care to address it?

    No. I haven't tracked his CLV or release times and I am generally clueless on MLB market anyway.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    RightAngle wrote: »
    I am generally clueless on MLB market anyway.

    I suggest keeping it this way, It's the worst thing you could possibly ever bet on.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    worm33 wrote: »
    Yes winning. I think part of that prolly has to do with the group that bets from 3-5 pm everyday I won't name them here that gets a ton of movement. 20-25 cents on totals and 15-20 cents on sides usually. Numbers do get a bit out of whack so I think that would lead to u having an extra 5-7 cents of clv without really having that 5-7 cents in value if that makes sense. But that's a big difference in saying that vs saying market isn't efficient.

    Do you bet a lot of totals? Someone out there is losing a giant fortune this year, because I've lost a small one despite getting sick line value. Sides have been pretty good to me actually.

    Efficiency is hard to define. I mean I bet a ton of stuff in other markets where pinny might take one or two total bets, and they move enough that my bet looks +ev vs close, but I could have bet the other side and gotten the same. I've noticed with MLB though if I take the day off or bet off screen I get pretty close to the same clv, so there are obviously other people with money coming in on the same sides. Still lose always though.
  • golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    Hey Golfer long time no hear how was Vegas?

    It was great we had a lot of fun. Headed back in early December for a friends birthday. Gonna try and play shadow creek in December, we've never played there and have always wanted to.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    golfer1000 wrote: »
    It was great we had a lot of fun. Headed back in early December for a friends birthday. Gonna try and play shadow creek in December, we've never played there and have always wanted to.

    I used to play ther every tuesday at 11am for about 2 years back in the day when Mr wynn only allow 4 foursomes a day. You'll love it but you have to be long of the tee or you'll have trouble. By long I mean about 220. It was never rated at that time Wynn didn't want it to be rated and then years later I think we found out it was like 6800 yards but believe me it plays real long like 7400. You'll love hole 17 the signature hole. Now all I'm saying was long ago before MGM took over and I haven't been there since but I hear it's still the same. $500 a round if not comped it better be.
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    durito wrote: »
    Do you bet a lot of totals? Someone out there is losing a giant fortune this year, because I've lost a small one despite getting sick line value. Sides have been pretty good to me actually.

    Efficiency is hard to define. I mean I bet a ton of stuff in other markets where pinny might take one or two total bets, and they move enough that my bet looks +ev vs close, but I could have bet the other side and gotten the same. I've noticed with MLB though if I take the day off or bet off screen I get pretty close to the same clv, so there are obviously other people with money coming in on the same sides. Still lose always though.

    As of 6/01 I am at 206 sides 176 totals. With your explanation above it seems like u agree the mlb market is efficient but u just find a way to lose always.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    With your explanation above it seems like u agree the mlb market is efficient but u just find a way to lose always.

    What about baltimore +139 closes at +103 yesterday and they lost. I know this is a tiny sample, but like durito has been saying, I'm also losing on the these type of irrational exuberance type of moves.
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    underwraps wrote: »
    What about baltimore +139 closes at +103 yesterday and they lost. I know this is a tiny sample, but like durito has been saying, I'm also losing on the these type of irrational exuberance type of moves.

    Ha "tiny sample" might be a tad of an underestimation. Plus 139 closes at plus 103 u realize ur going to still lose more then 50 percent of the time right?
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    6/19/2015 10:40PM Money Line 1100 1000 Baseball - 976 New York Yankees -110 for Game
    6/19/2015 10:34PM Money Line 1170 1000 Baseball - 968 Chicago White Sox -117 for Game

    Yankees at -130 now lets see if I win this one and whitesox - 138 currently.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    underwraps wrote: »
    What about baltimore +139 closes at +103 yesterday and they lost. I know this is a tiny sample, but like durito has been saying, I'm also losing on the these type of irrational exuberance type of moves.

    How could you possibly think holding a +139 ticket when the market closes it +103 is not a good thing? Be patient. Making bets like that is printing money. It doesn't mean you're going to win every bet. You still lose that one more than half the time.

    I don't think the MLB market at close contains much "irrational exuberance."
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    worm33 wrote: »
    Ha "tiny sample" might be a tad of an underestimation. Plus 139 closes at plus 103 u realize ur going to still lose more then 50 percent of the time right?

    Yes i do realize that, but shouldn't the clv cushion those loses and make me a winner longterm?
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    underwraps wrote: »
    Yes i do realize that, but shouldn't the clv cushion those loses and make me a winner longterm?

    It will. If you're consistently making bets like the last 4 you've posted, you'll own a MLB team before too long.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    How could you possibly think holding a +139 ticket when the market closes it +103 is not a good thing?

    I know its a good thing, its just that lately I've been losing with these moves. I'll see how it pans out at seasons end.
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    Dr. H wrote: »
    It will. If you're consistently making bets like the last 4 you've posted, you'll own a MLB team before too long.

    I am sure the only bets underwraps makes he beats the close by 20-30 cents.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    worm33 wrote: »
    I am sure the only bets underwraps makes he beats the close by 20-30 cents.

    Clearly.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    worm33 wrote: »
    I am sure the only bets underwraps makes he beats the close by 20-30 cents.

    No, I have Baltimore also +117 at heritage and posted it last night in the 1 a day with the pinny line same amount like the other 2 plays and this one is at +104 now
    and arizona - 110 which is +100 now is my only clv loser currently
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    worm33 wrote: »
    I am sure the only bets underwraps makes he beats the close by 20-30 cents.

    Peek aboo Mr. worm................... http://www.bettingtalk.com/forum/showthread.php/178381-2015-MLB-One-a-Day-Best-Bets/page23
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