I would be skeptical of "up a ton" in recent years when factoring in last year's baseball disaster. He might be up, but a historic nightmare such as last year seems hard to offset, and this year's baseball not helping.
He did have a solid CBB last year.
I think he was talking about free forum plays. While this is a bad streak, I'm not for sure if BG has lost his edge or if this is just bad variance. Its also possible that this particular subset of plays he's posting doesn't reflect his overall plays.
he's still up a ton here lifetime, according to RAS.
I just did a cursory glance at some of his past threads, and up a ton is probably not accurate, but I'd say he's up overall on what he's posted here, which is better than 98-99% of posters in forum land. Beyond that he developed a following from strong performances at other forums before coming to BT. All reasons why we choose to highlight his thread. Again, if you are going to criticize the highlighting, do so when you first see it, not 10 weeks into the season right after a horrid run.
When he started posting here for free 2013 baseball season within 1 week I said in the thread I would book him. I caught a lot of flack for that.
That was a great call looking back at it, but if you were serious about it I am certain you would have had some takers back then, and may even still now.
Not at all, it's not personal! I just fail to understand how people can continue to follow him in MLB and why his thread continues to be highlighted, which encourages more people to follow him.
I'm an optimist.....I feel a hot run coming and I don't want to miss it
One week? He's been "running bad" for 1000 plays and two years. LOL at completely dismissing the catastrophe that was last season for him and so many here that follow him.
Why are you endorsing a poster who has not shown the ability to win or beat the close in his last 1000+ plays? Do you feel that there are signs that he'll win going forward? If so, what are they?
BG seems like a very nice guy and I don't doubt that he means well fwiw.
Last year should certainly not be dismissed but why would you also not consider the years prior to that? You are looking for the long run correct? 1000 plays isn't it.
Buffet's life time record in MLB since he started posting plays on the internet is well over 7000 plays and plus money even with the minus 60 units last year. All depends when you boarded the train.
Worm: the year you said you would of booked buffet was the first year he posted here and you would of lost. If you would of did it in his 2nd year during his paid subs year then you be up over 60u.
One more note.. you can't measure buffet's picks based on CLV, because if you noticed his plays they are mostly fading market movers.
One more note.. you can't measure buffet's picks based on CLV, because if you noticed his plays they are mostly fading market movers.
False. I "fade market moves" frequently and if it doesn't correct itself enough by close, then there most likely wasn't enough value to strike at that point of entry. Simple as that.
***Note: This of course assumes an "efficient enough" market, which MLB most certainly is.
False. I "fade market moves" frequently and if it doesn't correct itself enough by close, then there most likely wasn't enough value to strike at that point of entry. Simple as that.
***Note: This of course assumes an "efficient enough" market, which MLB most certainly is.
Bull, I understand what you're saying and timing the market can be a bitch to accomplish at times and grab value especially when different players have different #s come up on their models and all the incoming news flow.
Buffet's life time record in MLB since he started posting plays on the internet is well over 7000 plays and plus money even with the minus 60 units last year. All depends when you boarded the train.
Worm: the year you said you would of booked buffet was the first year he posted here and you would of lost. If you would of did it in his 2nd year during his paid subs year then you be up over 60u.
One more note.. you can't measure buffet's picks based on CLV, because if you noticed his plays they are mostly fading market movers.
As far as fading market movers u are very correct most of the plays are just that. So when the sharps bet plus 140 and he comes back at -142 ask yourself who is more likely to win?
Worm, I'm not so sure if he is fading such narrow gaps like in your example above.
Last night he played the cubs +151 vs the Indians. This line opened at Indians -155 went as high as -175 and closed at -144.
In a perfect timed world he would of had the cubs +165 but lets admit this is a very difficult task to accomplish.
i wouldn't argue with durito on these market efficiency #s he's proven me wrong once in the NBA totals market where I found my mistake after going over it by hand for weeks a 2 nd time
i wouldn't argue with durito on these market efficiency #s he's proven me wrong once in the NBA totals market where I found my mistake after going over it by hand for weeks a 2 nd time
Right, YOU wouldn't, but I would. (Disagree with him that is, I'm not going to put forth the effort to "argue" the point. Take my advice or leave it. Your choice.)
I haven't run any #'s, but been beating close for about 8 years now at this (via either steam or originating) and have done substantially worse than expectation vs pinny close. It's not enough plays to conclude anything and markets always changing anyway but sitting on a sick # vs close for me lately has been a complete disaster.
As far as fading market movers u are very correct most of the plays are just that. So when the sharps bet plus 140 and he comes back at -142 ask yourself who is more likely to win?
but sitting on a sick # vs close for me lately has been a complete disaster.
I played orioles +139 last night currently at + 109 and I have to agree with durito. I've been losing for the most part on these, but hey they say long term.
Any one selling life prolonging meds?? :laugh:
I haven't run any #'s, but been beating close for about 8 years now at this (via either steam or originating) and have done substantially worse than expectation vs pinny close. It's not enough plays to conclude anything and markets always changing anyway but sitting on a sick # vs close for me lately has been a complete disaster.
Yes winning. I think part of that prolly has to do with the group that bets from 3-5 pm everyday I won't name them here that gets a ton of movement. 20-25 cents on totals and 15-20 cents on sides usually. Numbers do get a bit out of whack so I think that would lead to u having an extra 5-7 cents of clv without really having that 5-7 cents in value if that makes sense. But that's a big difference in saying that vs saying market isn't efficient.
As a follower it is your responsibility to determine if you should be blindly following a poster or simply "taking into account" the position he posted and making your final betting decision based on your numbers, numbers/positions of other ppl, the lines you have access to etc.
While I appreciate DrH's "dedication" to CLV (one of the big reasons I follow him), everybody has their own style and even if the total package of BG MLB posted plays are slightly -EV, there is still valuable info to be gathered from the two threads.
How the times have changed. This seems like a Scott Kellen situation, someone known to be sharp with a winning past cools off. I still believe we are seeing just one subset of plays from BG and he is still likely to have an edge overall. While the market doesn't agree with all his plays, he generally has more market agreement than not. I am willing to ride this season out and will analyze more after the season is over. GL going forward BG.
One week? He's been "running bad" for 1000 plays and two years. LOL at completely dismissing the catastrophe that was last season for him and so many here that follow him.
Why are you endorsing a poster who has not shown the ability to win or beat the close in his last 1000+ plays? Do you feel that there are signs that he'll win going forward? If so, what are they?
BG seems like a very nice guy and I don't doubt that he means well fwiw.
Ed, I notice that you avoided this question. Care to address it?
The list of candidates is very short, but I put more time into typing this response than I did trying to figure out who it was. It makes no difference to me.
Comments
I think he was talking about free forum plays. While this is a bad streak, I'm not for sure if BG has lost his edge or if this is just bad variance. Its also possible that this particular subset of plays he's posting doesn't reflect his overall plays.
I just did a cursory glance at some of his past threads, and up a ton is probably not accurate, but I'd say he's up overall on what he's posted here, which is better than 98-99% of posters in forum land. Beyond that he developed a following from strong performances at other forums before coming to BT. All reasons why we choose to highlight his thread. Again, if you are going to criticize the highlighting, do so when you first see it, not 10 weeks into the season right after a horrid run.
That was a great call looking back at it, but if you were serious about it I am certain you would have had some takers back then, and may even still now.
I'm an optimist.....I feel a hot run coming and I don't want to miss it
Last year should certainly not be dismissed but why would you also not consider the years prior to that? You are looking for the long run correct? 1000 plays isn't it.
Worm: the year you said you would of booked buffet was the first year he posted here and you would of lost. If you would of did it in his 2nd year during his paid subs year then you be up over 60u.
One more note.. you can't measure buffet's picks based on CLV, because if you noticed his plays they are mostly fading market movers.
False. I "fade market moves" frequently and if it doesn't correct itself enough by close, then there most likely wasn't enough value to strike at that point of entry. Simple as that.
***Note: This of course assumes an "efficient enough" market, which MLB most certainly is.
Bull, I understand what you're saying and timing the market can be a bitch to accomplish at times and grab value especially when different players have different #s come up on their models and all the incoming news flow.
As far as fading market movers u are very correct most of the plays are just that. So when the sharps bet plus 140 and he comes back at -142 ask yourself who is more likely to win?
Last night he played the cubs +151 vs the Indians. This line opened at Indians -155 went as high as -175 and closed at -144.
In a perfect timed world he would of had the cubs +165 but lets admit this is a very difficult task to accomplish.
I believe the statement was "efficient enough" and ROFL right back at ya my man
I believe mlb is efficient.
Right, YOU wouldn't, but I would. (Disagree with him that is, I'm not going to put forth the effort to "argue" the point. Take my advice or leave it. Your choice.)
Are you winning this year?
I haven't run any #'s, but been beating close for about 8 years now at this (via either steam or originating) and have done substantially worse than expectation vs pinny close. It's not enough plays to conclude anything and markets always changing anyway but sitting on a sick # vs close for me lately has been a complete disaster.
Must be a trick question.....-142 all day long
I played orioles +139 last night currently at + 109 and I have to agree with durito. I've been losing for the most part on these, but hey they say long term.
Any one selling life prolonging meds?? :laugh:
Yes winning. I think part of that prolly has to do with the group that bets from 3-5 pm everyday I won't name them here that gets a ton of movement. 20-25 cents on totals and 15-20 cents on sides usually. Numbers do get a bit out of whack so I think that would lead to u having an extra 5-7 cents of clv without really having that 5-7 cents in value if that makes sense. But that's a big difference in saying that vs saying market isn't efficient.
While I appreciate DrH's "dedication" to CLV (one of the big reasons I follow him), everybody has their own style and even if the total package of BG MLB posted plays are slightly -EV, there is still valuable info to be gathered from the two threads.
ebirt, the ghost account that is being used to troll me, is tribe backwards. So clever!
How the times have changed. This seems like a Scott Kellen situation, someone known to be sharp with a winning past cools off. I still believe we are seeing just one subset of plays from BG and he is still likely to have an edge overall. While the market doesn't agree with all his plays, he generally has more market agreement than not. I am willing to ride this season out and will analyze more after the season is over. GL going forward BG.
Any clue as to who it might be?
Ed, I notice that you avoided this question. Care to address it?
The list of candidates is very short, but I put more time into typing this response than I did trying to figure out who it was. It makes no difference to me.