if u did lose your edge would you continue your service?
The public history of the service is a strong indicator of a very significant edge, but there is also a much larger amount of non-public evidence (current season included) that proves it beyond any doubt. We'd have to lose in a particular subset of plays (CBB sides or totals) for at least two consecutive full seasons (probably closer to three) to start to consider the possibility of no longer having an edge in that subset. If that were to ever happen, there wouldn't be much incentive to continue selling picks in that subset anyway. So to answer your question, we haven't lost our edge, and we'd probably stop selling any subset of picks before ever knowing if we lost our edge in it.
and do you believe your service is worth what your charging?
On a performance based cost, obviously not this year, but if using that same model in previous years we would have undercharged a lot of times. If you are basing it on expected value, effort, talent, etc. then I would say absolutely yes. We are charging less per pick this season than we have in a while.
As of now, do you plan on using this new "per pick" format for college football and all of the offered services going forward?
We may still tinker with delivery methods and membership restrictions in the future, but yes, we have been happy with the user customized credit system.
Overpriced........ras cbb pakage is #1 expensive cbb package in the world
Based on 2.6 plays a day and running through March 22nd, that's when the bulk of March Madness ends, you are looking at a little over 300 plays or so. Using both the old and new pricing structure, cutting it down the middle, you are looking at about 5k for the year. Could be a little more or less though.
We even invented a new type of bad beat. Postponed 1.5 unit plays that cover the next day.
Hey Ed, not complaining here, just curious. What was the reason you didn't release James Madison today? Did something change in your capping or was it because the books didn't post until half hour before game time? Thanks.
Hey Ed, not complaining here, just curious. What was the reason you didn't release James Madison today? Did something change in your capping or was it because the books didn't post until half hour before game time? Thanks.
We released it at -5 yesterday, was -6/-6.5 by the time it became widely available today, and yeah not sure what took so long for CRIS to post it. We contemplated a -6 release close to game time, but then it got hit to -7 so decided to just pass. Tough break all the way around.
You guys crack me up. Guarantees in buying sports packages. Yea if I don't win and the ball bounces wrong all the hard work and salary's and all my overhead goes out the window. This is the stupidest shit I think I ever heard of Guarantees it toutville. Oh wait you must have missed the sign buyer beware.
I knew BG made a mistake with starting that and to tell the truth whoever thought of that at best was having a bad day. But in this day and age Mr Golfer Jr you never know. I have to throw this in also in all my years I don't think I've ever seen so many people buy sports picks.
I'll leave it at that.
Lol ya, that will be the day. If you want a guarantee I think BG had one on his baseball last year and I'm sure he will again if he runs a service.
I'll bet if BG does run another baseball service forget guarantee's. I don't care if it's his first losing season in the last 50 years offering another guarantee is not good business. Man up and buy or don't and if you think about it guarantee's in this particular business isn't good for the consumer either.
I'll bet if BG does run another baseball service forget guarantee's. I don't care if it's his first losing season in the last 50 years offering another guarantee is not good business. Man up and buy or don't and if you think about it guarantee's in this particular business isn't good for the consumer either.
I agree completely OT. For one your paying for that persons work and two they dont owe you shit. It's your choice to pay for their service no ones forcing you too. Play your own plays or tail someone on the board thats free. The only guarantees in life are death and taxes.
You guys crack me up. Guarantees in buying sports packages. Yea if I don't win and the ball bounces wrong all the hard work and salary's and all my overhead goes out the window. This is the stupidest shit I think I ever heard of Guarantees it toutville. Oh wait you must have missed the sign buyer beware.
I knew BG made a mistake with starting that and to tell the truth whoever thought of that at best was having a bad day. But in this day and age Mr Golfer Jr you never know. I have to throw this in also in all my years I don't think I've ever seen so many people buy sports picks.
I'll leave it at that.
to me i think if the service not put any guarantee on the package that mean they not sure they gonna win anything for the package if the service think they good and win longterm and charge that much $ on the package they should put some guarantee on it .
I'll bet if BG does run another baseball service forget guarantee's. I don't care if it's his first losing season in the last 50 years offering another guarantee is not good business. Man up and buy or don't and if you think about it guarantee's in this particular business isn't good for the consumer either.
RAS offered a guaranteed a few years (it was a bit extra). No one bought it.
just so i know, have there ever been 'guarantees' in the past with RAS?
No to your question but he started before I knew of him but I highly doubt it. I wonder how much extra money people lost following BG thoughtout the whole year afraid that he may go on a run and not only will they miss the run but not get the guarantee that was offered. The key word here is Gambling I never heard of someone giving another a guarantee that if I don't have a winning season I will give your entry fee back.
Hey the world is changing. I can still see it yea double up if he doesn't show a profit we get our Sub money. My opinion is not 20/20 and to everyone who said it class it's just plain old bad business. Of course we're taking about the gambling on sporting events business.
I think he should come back will a smaller price with no guarantee's and no monthly's . With of course prorated prices for those who want to get if things are going well.
I just seen Rito answer it's like buying insurance. Good Luck with that.
This one is comparing a hamburger hopfully that was a n attempt at a joke.
I wonder how much extra money people lost following BG thoughtout the whole year afraid that he may go on a run and not only will they miss the run but not get the guarantee that was offered.
You guys crack me up. Guarantees in buying sports packages. Yea if I don't win and the ball bounces wrong all the hard work and salary's and all my overhead goes out the window. This is the stupidest shit I think I ever heard of Guarantees it toutville. Oh wait you must have missed the sign buyer beware.
I knew BG made a mistake with starting that and to tell the truth whoever thought of that at best was having a bad day. But in this day and age Mr Golfer Jr you never know. I have to throw this in also in all my years I don't think I've ever seen so many people buy sports picks.
I'll leave it at that.
Right-on, OT.
Services are reaching if they offer insurance. I use a 3-day trial just to make sure release times and such work for each individual, but that's as far as I'll go. I keep a private sub limit to prevent things from flying off the handle at release, but everybody knows that money trumps volume, so all it takes is a few on-screen max bettors to ruin the party.
Sorry about that. BG is solid and my posts are in noways to disrespect him. A good guy and solid and I hope a lesson learned jm.
I'm not sure I understand- what lesson did he learn? You just said he's a good guy and solid, ( capper I assume) He got off to a bad start, so this guy JM decided to stick with him. Didn't work out, but based on BG being solid, and the hopes that he would turn it around, I most likely would have stuck with him myself, whether there was a guarantee or not. I guess everyone has to make a decision when/if to cut ties, just like RAS this year.
Could go the opposite way as well. What if BG is up 40 units at the all star break. Do you ride it out because he is hot, or do you say, no way he can keep this up, let me take my profits and call it a season. I'm just not sure what lesson can be learned. Could be just bad timing and bad luck
You should see the freeloaders that are bitching about RAS across these forums. They are so distraught that they are having a losing year. Like losing 10 units after winning for the last 5 years is the end of the world. Then, they get the plays at 2-3 points wors,e and bitch when they lose a close play that RAS wins. Funny thing is, they will come up and say RAS stinks, but they are up there on a message board looking for their plays, and willing to play them at 2-3 points worse from the released line, lol.
I'm not sure I understand- what lesson did he learn? You just said he's a good guy and solid, ( capper I assume) He got off to a bad start, so this guy JM decided to stick with him. Didn't work out, but based on BG being solid, and the hopes that he would turn it around, I most likely would have stuck with him myself, whether there was a guarantee or not. I guess everyone has to make a decision when/if to cut ties, just like RAS this year.
Could go the opposite way as well. What if BG is up 40 units at the all star break. Do you ride it out because he is hot, or do you say, no way he can keep this up, let me take my profits and call it a season. I'm just not sure what lesson can be learned. Could be just bad timing and bad luck
You should see the freeloaders that are bitching about RAS across these forums. They are so distraught that they are having a losing year. Like losing 10 units after winning for the last 5 years is the end of the world. Then, they get the plays at 2-3 points wors,e and bitch when they lose a close play that RAS wins. Funny thing is, they will come up and say RAS stinks, but they are up there on a message board looking for their plays, and willing to play them at 2-3 points worse from the released line, lol.
When BG hit the <40> unit mark it was time to cut bait. That's why you heard people saying they were broke and almost broke because when your down <40> and betting favorites almost every play it's a good time to get out. Did you really believe that after down <40> units or so and betting -160 fav's and above you were going to get out. You should never be in a position to go broke so if you were betting 1% or 1.5% whatever your bet is you really didn't have much of a shot getting those 40 units back and that was just to break even.
I didn't follow much after the all star break but would check in once in a while and see he was down 60 units or so and then all of a sudden I was seeing some + sign on games. Bad sign. I think that was done because of all the complaining about him not playing dogs. Losing effects people some more then others and sometimes it's best to walk away. Lets not compare a winning streak to a losing streak there is no stop sign on a winning steak.
Here's my story After April he was down 17 units and with his Rep I figured this may be a shot worth taking so I signed up for May for $400 and sure enough it was almost the end of the month and he was down only 10 units and I was up 7 units (It killed me betting chalk like that but I was committed) Over the last week he lost 17 Units putting him up to -27 units and the end of May came and I was down 10 Units. Time to go and I recovered nicely by winning almost 30 units for the year and if you add his 10 in I win 40 units for the year. There always comes a time in gambling you need to cut bait. The lesson was to realize that and you'll be a better gambler
Comments
Subtle market resistance despite the large input of RAS $$.
The public history of the service is a strong indicator of a very significant edge, but there is also a much larger amount of non-public evidence (current season included) that proves it beyond any doubt. We'd have to lose in a particular subset of plays (CBB sides or totals) for at least two consecutive full seasons (probably closer to three) to start to consider the possibility of no longer having an edge in that subset. If that were to ever happen, there wouldn't be much incentive to continue selling picks in that subset anyway. So to answer your question, we haven't lost our edge, and we'd probably stop selling any subset of picks before ever knowing if we lost our edge in it.
On a performance based cost, obviously not this year, but if using that same model in previous years we would have undercharged a lot of times. If you are basing it on expected value, effort, talent, etc. then I would say absolutely yes. We are charging less per pick this season than we have in a while.
More resistance than usual would be a concern, but certainly haven't seen that. There should be a lot less "RAS $$" when we aren't doing well.
We may still tinker with delivery methods and membership restrictions in the future, but yes, we have been happy with the user customized credit system.
Based on 2.6 plays a day and running through March 22nd, that's when the bulk of March Madness ends, you are looking at a little over 300 plays or so. Using both the old and new pricing structure, cutting it down the middle, you are looking at about 5k for the year. Could be a little more or less though.
We even invented a new type of bad beat. Postponed 1.5 unit plays that cover the next day.
Hey Ed, not complaining here, just curious. What was the reason you didn't release James Madison today? Did something change in your capping or was it because the books didn't post until half hour before game time? Thanks.
We released it at -5 yesterday, was -6/-6.5 by the time it became widely available today, and yeah not sure what took so long for CRIS to post it. We contemplated a -6 release close to game time, but then it got hit to -7 so decided to just pass. Tough break all the way around.
Lol ya, that will be the day. If you want a guarantee I think BG had one on his baseball last year and I'm sure he will again if he runs a service.
I knew BG made a mistake with starting that and to tell the truth whoever thought of that at best was having a bad day. But in this day and age Mr Golfer Jr you never know. I have to throw this in also in all my years I don't think I've ever seen so many people buy sports picks.
I'll leave it at that.
I'll bet if BG does run another baseball service forget guarantee's. I don't care if it's his first losing season in the last 50 years offering another guarantee is not good business. Man up and buy or don't and if you think about it guarantee's in this particular business isn't good for the consumer either.
I agree completely OT. For one your paying for that persons work and two they dont owe you shit. It's your choice to pay for their service no ones forcing you too. Play your own plays or tail someone on the board thats free. The only guarantees in life are death and taxes.
RAS offered a guaranteed a few years (it was a bit extra). No one bought it.
No to your question but he started before I knew of him but I highly doubt it. I wonder how much extra money people lost following BG thoughtout the whole year afraid that he may go on a run and not only will they miss the run but not get the guarantee that was offered. The key word here is Gambling I never heard of someone giving another a guarantee that if I don't have a winning season I will give your entry fee back.
Hey the world is changing. I can still see it yea double up if he doesn't show a profit we get our Sub money. My opinion is not 20/20 and to everyone who said it class it's just plain old bad business. Of course we're taking about the gambling on sporting events business.
I think he should come back will a smaller price with no guarantee's and no monthly's . With of course prorated prices for those who want to get if things are going well.
I just seen Rito answer it's like buying insurance. Good Luck with that.
This one is comparing a hamburger hopfully that was a n attempt at a joke.
That was me (unfortunately)
Right-on, OT.
Services are reaching if they offer insurance. I use a 3-day trial just to make sure release times and such work for each individual, but that's as far as I'll go. I keep a private sub limit to prevent things from flying off the handle at release, but everybody knows that money trumps volume, so all it takes is a few on-screen max bettors to ruin the party.
Sorry about that. BG is solid and my posts are in noways to disrespect him. A good guy and solid and I hope a lesson learned jm.
I'm not sure I understand- what lesson did he learn? You just said he's a good guy and solid, ( capper I assume) He got off to a bad start, so this guy JM decided to stick with him. Didn't work out, but based on BG being solid, and the hopes that he would turn it around, I most likely would have stuck with him myself, whether there was a guarantee or not. I guess everyone has to make a decision when/if to cut ties, just like RAS this year.
Could go the opposite way as well. What if BG is up 40 units at the all star break. Do you ride it out because he is hot, or do you say, no way he can keep this up, let me take my profits and call it a season. I'm just not sure what lesson can be learned. Could be just bad timing and bad luck
You should see the freeloaders that are bitching about RAS across these forums. They are so distraught that they are having a losing year. Like losing 10 units after winning for the last 5 years is the end of the world. Then, they get the plays at 2-3 points wors,e and bitch when they lose a close play that RAS wins. Funny thing is, they will come up and say RAS stinks, but they are up there on a message board looking for their plays, and willing to play them at 2-3 points worse from the released line, lol.
I didn't follow much after the all star break but would check in once in a while and see he was down 60 units or so and then all of a sudden I was seeing some + sign on games. Bad sign. I think that was done because of all the complaining about him not playing dogs. Losing effects people some more then others and sometimes it's best to walk away. Lets not compare a winning streak to a losing streak there is no stop sign on a winning steak.
Here's my story After April he was down 17 units and with his Rep I figured this may be a shot worth taking so I signed up for May for $400 and sure enough it was almost the end of the month and he was down only 10 units and I was up 7 units (It killed me betting chalk like that but I was committed) Over the last week he lost 17 Units putting him up to -27 units and the end of May came and I was down 10 Units. Time to go and I recovered nicely by winning almost 30 units for the year and if you add his 10 in I win 40 units for the year. There always comes a time in gambling you need to cut bait. The lesson was to realize that and you'll be a better gambler
True. That theory can also apply to women in our lives. :surrender::surrender: