Like Ron just said its a graveyard for favs. Stay away from drop down in class horses especially if they get bet down.
Mainly look for Ny based trainers in claiming races. This track is filled with rich tourists so always look for value when betting.
I can spit out about another 100 angles but I can't because I will upset some people.
You're wrong, not all that matters is winning. Both are very important.
Say we both make the same two bets on a given day. First bet is a favourite on the ML and the second bet is an underdog on the money line.
I bet the favourite at -220 while you bet it later in the day at -240. You take the underdog at +160 while I had it earlier at +180. At the end of the day, the favourite loses and the underdog wins.
- My results are -220 + 180 = -40
-Your results are -240 +160 = -80.
Say our units were $1K. That gives me a loss of $400 while you lost $800. You did $400 worse than me.
I hope it's clear why CLV matters.
Thanks for that wonderful explanation of CLV. I'm sure Okie had no idea what it meant.
But let me tell you why it doesn't mean shit...
You bet Washington/SDSU to go under 57.5. I like the game to go over 57.5 points. I would like it even more if I could get over 55.5 points. So I go to work on the screen and for around $5,000 I can get the whole offshore world down to that level. You, the die hard CLV subscriber, think you have a wonderful bet. Meanwhile, I'm unloading at all my offscreens on over 55.5 and not letting the screen budge higher.
Congratulations, you beat the close. Let me know if that gets you paid.
Thanks for that wonderful explanation of CLV. I'm sure Okie had no idea what it meant.
But let me tell you why it doesn't mean shit...
You bet Washington/SDSU to go under 57.5. I like the game to go over 57.5 points. I would like it even more if I could get over 55.5 points. So I go to work on the screen and for around $5,000 I can get the whole offshore world down to that level. You, the die hard CLV subscriber, think you have a wonderful bet. Meanwhile, I'm unloading at all my offscreens on over 55.5 and not letting the screen budge higher.
Congratulations, you beat the close. Let me know if that gets you paid.
Yea, but once you are down offscreen, aren't you gonna hit the screen back up?
Obviously depends on the market, but I wouldn't consider the close at pinny on college totals where the limits are now peanuts as relevant to anything. Any consideration of efficiency (which is what would assume clv has value) needs to include a look at the limits of the considered market. If you can move the line at half the sportsbooks in the world betting a $500 market at pinny I would go ahead and not consider that market as not efficient. Hell, I know someone that gets drunk and random maxes shit for way more than that just to fk up steam chasers.
Yea, but once you are down offscreen, aren't you gonna hit the screen back up?
Obviously depends on the market, but I wouldn't consider the close at pinny on college totals where the limits are now peanuts as relevant to anything. Any consideration of efficiency (which is what would assume clv has value) needs to include a look at the limits of the considered market. If you can move the line at half the sportsbooks in the world betting a $500 market at pinny I would go ahead and not consider that market as not efficient. Hell, I know someone that gets drunk and random maxes shit for way more than that just to fk up steam chasers.
It's hilarious the fetish that the offshore books have for any Pinnacle movement.
Yea, but once you are down offscreen, aren't you gonna hit the screen back up?
Obviously depends on the market, but I wouldn't consider the close at pinny on college totals where the limits are now peanuts as relevant to anything. Any consideration of efficiency (which is what would assume clv has value) needs to include a look at the limits of the considered market. If you can move the line at half the sportsbooks in the world betting a $500 market at pinny I would go ahead and not consider that market as not efficient. Hell, I know someone that gets drunk and random maxes shit for way more than that just to fk up steam chasers.
Why would you focus on an efficient market?
But I'll give you a better example. Haralabob 2H totals. I'm speaking from first hand experience here as he would give the totals directly to me via Skype at the start of the 12-13 season. The orders typically came in 5 minutes after the market was set. The first 5 min he was hitting the screen the wrong way. Literally 10 seconds before post is when he would hit the screen back, so by then it was too late to follow and even then you aren't hitting it back to the original number you started manipulating. And just to show just how connected these guys are, he would know if I was reporting the correct numbers and true amounts, because he would never give the entire order to one person. He then had connections with all the PPH shops and would get reports back on which sets of plays went where and if those sets of plays got leaked elsewhere, etc. It was something else.
So yeah, suffice it to say, if you are getting real info, I'm really not gonna give a fuck about CLV.
Honestly, if you want the easiest way to win. Just set up shop at Cantor and market cap them all day as if they were Pinny. They are the highest limit off screen around. Fullboatsports with Robbie is another good one. He's dialed in to the sharp moves and will move ahead of the screen. Catalina to a lesser extent with Midlin.
Yea, but once you are down offscreen, aren't you gonna hit the screen back up?
It would be quite an accomplishment for it to not leak to screen in some fashion. If not by him personally, certainly anyone watching any/all of those offscreen accounts assuming he wins and/or does it often, not to mention anyone else with an opinion on the game.
Edit: Surely last second HV NBA halftime bets would be an exception, but two point fake moves on CFB totals are more than likely going to move back to pre fake move or higher on screen.
Thanks for that wonderful explanation of CLV. I'm sure Okie had no idea what it meant.
But let me tell you why it doesn't mean shit...
You bet Washington/SDSU to go under 57.5. I like the game to go over 57.5 points. I would like it even more if I could get over 55.5 points. So I go to work on the screen and for around $5,000 I can get the whole offshore world down to that level. You, the die hard CLV subscriber, think you have a wonderful bet. Meanwhile, I'm unloading at all my offscreens on over 55.5 and not letting the screen budge higher.
Congratulations, you beat the close. Let me know if that gets you paid.
We're not talking about college football were talking about mlb. If you did that in mlb I and many other groups would be correcting the market.
The last thing an originator wants is a perfectly efficient market. Unless you are so underfunded that you are betting openers, then having CLV at least shows you are on the same side as the bigger players (assuming efficiency again).
But, as a steam chaser that's exactly what you want. A few years ago when pinny still controlled the market, I'd play every move across every account I could get my hands. Did quite well at it too. Pretty sure steam chasers been losing for the last couple years now.
So yeah, suffice it to say, if you are getting real info, I'm really not gonna give a fuck about CLV.
If you have winning info and a big enough roll, you don't want CLV. You want to be able to bet as much as possible without moving the line/leaking the info. But, that's just not where most people are at. So if you are a smaller player, etc CLV is usually just a tool to evaluate if you are playing the same sides as better players (assuming no manipulation). It's not some magic trick like some people assume.
It would be quite an accomplishment for it to not leak to screen in some fashion. If not by him personally, certainly anyone watching any/all of those offscreen accounts assuming he wins and/or does it often, not to mention anyone else with an opinion on the game.
Edit: Surely last second HV NBA halftime bets would be an exception, but two point fake moves on CFB totals are more than likely going to move back to pre fake move or higher on screen.
Generally speaking, unless it's some sort of inside information, multiple people are going to know what the right side of a line is. So even if some groups are manipulating, etc. someone out there isn't going to be apart of that and is going to bet the line the right way.
I bet a lot of low limit non-us sports that opens at really low limits ($50/$250) and these lines are really soft, and I'd love to bet them the wrong way (i've tried) and then come back later for much bigger -- but they almost always get hit in the right direction for the peanuts anyway. There were always be someone out there with sharp info and a small roll that's just starting out or whatever.
Thanks for that wonderful explanation of CLV. I'm sure Okie had no idea what it meant.
But let me tell you why it doesn't mean shit...
You bet Washington/SDSU to go under 57.5. I like the game to go over 57.5 points. I would like it even more if I could get over 55.5 points. So I go to work on the screen and for around $5,000 I can get the whole offshore world down to that level. You, the die hard CLV subscriber, think you have a wonderful bet. Meanwhile, I'm unloading at all my offscreens on over 55.5 and not letting the screen budge higher.
Congratulations, you beat the close. Let me know if that gets you paid.
Jafar,
Kinda ironic to be talking in a condescending manner while you're wrong. CLV still matters when you practice these fakes. If the smarter players in this case were on the over 57.5 too, they would bet the line back up. As Durito explained, he tried to fake a couple of lines, but it was hard to do as others would bet it back up. Now if all the sharps were on the under in this case, the line wouldn't get back up. But in that case A, you threw $5000 away, as the sharps would have moved it for you anyway, and B, good luck betting against the sharps on every single bet. Would you do that?
For someone that knows darn well how this shit works, it's kinda ignorant that you make these dumb posts. It's something completely different if you know that you're placing bets for a sharp that hits at +60% and you try to manipulate the line in your favour. I agree with that.
I'll say it differently, If there's a bettor out there who's 100% right on his bets, he would outfake Haralobos like Tim Hardaway would juke you out of your Louboutins with his killer crossover.
It all depends on what you can get down elsewhere. I definitely didn't mean to imply that people aren't successfully manipulating lines on us collegiate sports. Just imo the line on screen will usually eventually get bet back to where it should be.
I don't think I've seen anything like this before. Obviously I'm not betting them, but it's still fun to watch. It's like watching history in the making.
Surprised nobody mentioned that he's giving the refunds this week. Classy move to do so now.
I'm not sure it could have been handled any better than he's handled it.
A lot of yoshing comments and a bunch of other bullshit in this thread but he's been quite professional throughout the whole thing. It sucks to lose, everybody gets that. Not sure there's any other tout service that offers a refund if you don't win.
Services operated by BG, SY and Kellen are handled by each individual, independent of me and/or RAS. We provide web site design, programming, maintenance, and other logistics support, but that's it.
BG's decision to issue refunds now was entirely his own and to my knowledge had everything to do with his recent poor results, not the upcoming CFB season or RAS service.
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BG's decision to issue refunds now was entirely his own and to my knowledge had everything to do with his recent poor results, not the upcoming CFB season or RAS service.
Maybe as a courtesy to you and freeup some dead $$ that could be put into play for football?
Comments
Thank you !
Thanks for that wonderful explanation of CLV. I'm sure Okie had no idea what it meant.
But let me tell you why it doesn't mean shit...
You bet Washington/SDSU to go under 57.5. I like the game to go over 57.5 points. I would like it even more if I could get over 55.5 points. So I go to work on the screen and for around $5,000 I can get the whole offshore world down to that level. You, the die hard CLV subscriber, think you have a wonderful bet. Meanwhile, I'm unloading at all my offscreens on over 55.5 and not letting the screen budge higher.
Congratulations, you beat the close. Let me know if that gets you paid.
Yea, but once you are down offscreen, aren't you gonna hit the screen back up?
Obviously depends on the market, but I wouldn't consider the close at pinny on college totals where the limits are now peanuts as relevant to anything. Any consideration of efficiency (which is what would assume clv has value) needs to include a look at the limits of the considered market. If you can move the line at half the sportsbooks in the world betting a $500 market at pinny I would go ahead and not consider that market as not efficient. Hell, I know someone that gets drunk and random maxes shit for way more than that just to fk up steam chasers.
It's hilarious the fetish that the offshore books have for any Pinnacle movement.
Why would you focus on an efficient market?
But I'll give you a better example. Haralabob 2H totals. I'm speaking from first hand experience here as he would give the totals directly to me via Skype at the start of the 12-13 season. The orders typically came in 5 minutes after the market was set. The first 5 min he was hitting the screen the wrong way. Literally 10 seconds before post is when he would hit the screen back, so by then it was too late to follow and even then you aren't hitting it back to the original number you started manipulating. And just to show just how connected these guys are, he would know if I was reporting the correct numbers and true amounts, because he would never give the entire order to one person. He then had connections with all the PPH shops and would get reports back on which sets of plays went where and if those sets of plays got leaked elsewhere, etc. It was something else.
So yeah, suffice it to say, if you are getting real info, I'm really not gonna give a fuck about CLV.
Honestly, if you want the easiest way to win. Just set up shop at Cantor and market cap them all day as if they were Pinny. They are the highest limit off screen around. Fullboatsports with Robbie is another good one. He's dialed in to the sharp moves and will move ahead of the screen. Catalina to a lesser extent with Midlin.
It would be quite an accomplishment for it to not leak to screen in some fashion. If not by him personally, certainly anyone watching any/all of those offscreen accounts assuming he wins and/or does it often, not to mention anyone else with an opinion on the game.
Edit: Surely last second HV NBA halftime bets would be an exception, but two point fake moves on CFB totals are more than likely going to move back to pre fake move or higher on screen.
We're not talking about college football were talking about mlb. If you did that in mlb I and many other groups would be correcting the market.
The last thing an originator wants is a perfectly efficient market. Unless you are so underfunded that you are betting openers, then having CLV at least shows you are on the same side as the bigger players (assuming efficiency again).
But, as a steam chaser that's exactly what you want. A few years ago when pinny still controlled the market, I'd play every move across every account I could get my hands. Did quite well at it too. Pretty sure steam chasers been losing for the last couple years now.
If you have winning info and a big enough roll, you don't want CLV. You want to be able to bet as much as possible without moving the line/leaking the info. But, that's just not where most people are at. So if you are a smaller player, etc CLV is usually just a tool to evaluate if you are playing the same sides as better players (assuming no manipulation). It's not some magic trick like some people assume.
Generally speaking, unless it's some sort of inside information, multiple people are going to know what the right side of a line is. So even if some groups are manipulating, etc. someone out there isn't going to be apart of that and is going to bet the line the right way.
I bet a lot of low limit non-us sports that opens at really low limits ($50/$250) and these lines are really soft, and I'd love to bet them the wrong way (i've tried) and then come back later for much bigger -- but they almost always get hit in the right direction for the peanuts anyway. There were always be someone out there with sharp info and a small roll that's just starting out or whatever.
Jafar,
Kinda ironic to be talking in a condescending manner while you're wrong. CLV still matters when you practice these fakes. If the smarter players in this case were on the over 57.5 too, they would bet the line back up. As Durito explained, he tried to fake a couple of lines, but it was hard to do as others would bet it back up. Now if all the sharps were on the under in this case, the line wouldn't get back up. But in that case A, you threw $5000 away, as the sharps would have moved it for you anyway, and B, good luck betting against the sharps on every single bet. Would you do that?
For someone that knows darn well how this shit works, it's kinda ignorant that you make these dumb posts. It's something completely different if you know that you're placing bets for a sharp that hits at +60% and you try to manipulate the line in your favour. I agree with that.
I'll say it differently, If there's a bettor out there who's 100% right on his bets, he would outfake Haralobos like Tim Hardaway would juke you out of your Louboutins with his killer crossover.
So you're basically doing all you can to get a BETTER LINE with your fakes, yet CLV doesn't mean shit?
LOL
I don't think I've seen anything like this before. Obviously I'm not betting them, but it's still fun to watch. It's like watching history in the making.
No line.
I am guessing he is trying to find the complicated words to say "I quit"
Fuck that. I want to see if he can lose 100!
Keep it classy AILV.
Rips head just exploded.
We can only hope.
I'm not sure it could have been handled any better than he's handled it.
A lot of yoshing comments and a bunch of other bullshit in this thread but he's been quite professional throughout the whole thing. It sucks to lose, everybody gets that. Not sure there's any other tout service that offers a refund if you don't win.
The refunds coming at the same time signups for the RAS college service coming out are not orchestrated ? OK
Also -
He is a great loser ? Really ?
Doubling and Tripling the number of plays. Hmm
Some of you guys have very Rosy views on the obvious.
BG's decision to issue refunds now was entirely his own and to my knowledge had everything to do with his recent poor results, not the upcoming CFB season or RAS service.
Maybe as a courtesy to you and freeup some dead $$ that could be put into play for football?
I haven't discussed any future plans with BG.
His decision coincided with his recent poor results, and that was the only reason given to me in our brief discussion.
Rest assured I didn't in any way direct or pressure BG to refund his customers now with hopes that money would be spent on RAS.