I don't know BG, his character or whatever attributes he holds. I've seen no bio, just an impressive pressure-less track record. What I do see is a service now playing primarilyfor itself with subs buried or broke with little chance to recoup. Mr Congeniality aka Dr. H, to his credit at some point last year packed it in (sides?) while admitting he couldn't win going forward. This current market model, along with the triple word scrabble verbiage need to abort.
You beat Saratoga? Good for you Wraps. With the heat and humidity tough to win at the Spa unless ur moving for the right ppl.
I moved for some ppl a few times while I was there. They did good but not as good as they do in Aqu or bel. I use the ragozin sheets and pay close attention to overlays at toga all the time because of all the rumors they put out every race the board is all skewed with lots of dumb money.
I don't know BG, his character or whatever attributes he holds. I've seen no bio, just an impressive pressure-less track record. What I do see is a service now playing primarilyfor itself with subs buried or broke with little chance to recoup. Mr Congeniality aka Dr. H, to his credit at some point last year packed it in (sides?) while admitting he couldn't win going forward. This current market model, along with the triple word scrabble verbiage need to abort.
My reply with still doesn't work so I'll cut/paste your reply.
I agree with what your saying but this is big boy school and to repeat if you haven't completely stop who's fault is that/
I agree with what your saying but this is big boy school and to repeat if you haven't completely stop who's fault is that My point is it sucks to lose and we all have at one point or another but this beating a dead horse enough already. The Doc did stop his sides and he did a good thing but he still had something to offer which was total's and he should commended for that. But tell the truth if you were in BG's spot would you just quit? You'll always have hope to cut into you loss's by picking up some units in the last 50 games or so going into next year. I doubt anybody is still playing his games they're just waiting for a refund. It sucks to lose but telling someone about everyday is overkill.
Love the "triple word scrabble verbiage"! The complicated algorithms, the advanced (sounding) math, the reinvention of handicapping baseball. Yeah, right.
I hear ya OT, but the yoshing is disrespectful to the subscriber base. If plays weren't limited to one unit how much would he be stuck now? It's big league no doubt. However, many of the kids here were spoiled by RAS and to some degree SY successes. I guess they grew up fast since April.
Love the "triple word scrabble verbiage"! The complicated algorithms, the advanced (sounding) math, the reinvention of handicapping baseball. Yeah, right.
The best part of that is, when another poster asked him to explain himself in simpler English , he said I don't know how to.
Really ? How the hell does he order breakfast ? Lmao
Any chance the 'sabermetric revolution' in the media over the last few years has educated so many bettors that it has taken away most value in the MLB market? Has the MLB supplanted the NFL as the most efficient market?
Any chance the 'sabermetric revolution' in the media over the last few years has educated so many bettors that it has taken away most value in the MLB market? Has the MLB supplanted the NFL as the most efficient market?
Hasn't it always been that way? -105/-105 widely available on baseball games, even bookmaker ditched the -110 model on baseball.
Hasn't it always been that way? -105/-105 widely available on baseball games, even bookmaker ditched the -110 model on baseball.
Consensus seemed to be that the NFL is the most difficult market to beat as a handicapper. I remember a couple of guys on here saying: "If you can beat the NFL, you can beat almost every other market". They never mentioned the MLB as such. But looking at the your argument and the growth of the sabermetric crowd, that statement is probably wrong.
Consensus seemed to be that the NFL is the most difficult market to beat as a handicapper. I remember a couple of guys on here saying: "If you can beat the NFL, you can beat almost every other market". They never mentioned the MLB as such. But looking at the your argument and the growth of the sabermetric crowd, that statement is probably wrong.
If ur going to say baseball is hard now because bg is getting crushed couldn't u just make the reverse argument and point to dr h success or paid03 success?
I've considered them too while looking at this argument. And you're right, there still probably are edges available in every market. In that case my question should be: Has the evolution of advanced analytics specifically caught up to BG's model?
I remember reading in Ken Uston's book that he had a card-counting team in Europe, that went through a 6 month stretch of negative variance at the tables. It took them 6 months to get back into the black with the same counters that had lifted AC and Vegas for thousands every weekend. While it's hard to do given his current record, I'm still keeping the possibility open of such a negative variance stretch for BG's model too.
Another thing which I've seen with many handicappers is that they perform differently in different parts of the season. Some are very good at the beginning of the season. Others are better in the latter stages or in the play-offs. Most of the sharpest guys agree on softer lines being available in the beginning of the season (for any sport). But how do you explain others absolutely killing it in the 2nd half? Just variance? Or are their models a better fit for that part of the season?
I've considered them too while looking at this argument. And you're right, there still probably are edges available in every market. In that case my question should be: Has the evolution of advanced analytics specifically caught up to BG's model?
I remember reading in Ken Uston's book that he had a card-counting team in Europe, that went through a 6 month stretch of negative variance at the tables. It took them 6 months to get back into the black with the same counters that had lifted AC and Vegas for thousands every weekend. While it's hard to do given his current record, I'm still keeping the possibility open of such a negative variance stretch for BG's model too.
Another thing which I've seen with many handicappers is that they perform differently in different parts of the season. Some are very good at the beginning of the season. Others are better in the latter stages or in the play-offs. Most of the sharpest guys agree on softer lines being available in the beginning of the season (for any sport). But how do you explain others absolutely killing it in the 2nd half? Just variance? Or are their models a better fit for that part of the season?
Obv bg has had a shit ton of negative variance. But he's only beating the close by 0.81 percent per play. That's not going to produce winning results. As far as groups getting weaker/stronger as the season goes on I think that some groups adjust much better as the season progresses where some groups have stronger models for the early parts of a season.
Just got back from Saratoga, been there for over 2 weeks and recouped some of my losses from BG. I stopped playing at the time I left.
I have to admit this is the worst I ever seen BG do in bases. Real shame
I will be at Saratoga next week..........I know very little about horse racing, have some friends who spend the summer in Lake George.
Can you suggest any material I can use to do my due dilligence so I cat least have a fighting chance ?
Obv bg has had a shit ton of negative variance. But he's only beating the close by 0.81 percent per play. That's not going to produce winning results.
He actually isn't beating the close at all. The "0.81%" figure ignores the vig, which in my experience, is kind of important in calculating sports betting results.
If ur going to say baseball is hard now because bg is getting crushed couldn't u just make the reverse argument and point to dr h success or paid03 success?
Agreed! This is not happening to other groups. Just because a guy goes bad doesn't mean the market is tougher. It happens.
8/07/2014 956 Colorado Rockies +102 (Y. Flande) vs. Chicago Cubs (K. Hendricks) COL 6-2 WIN -120 +5.04%
You can't get paid on the above.
No doubt it was inadvertent, but nothing like drawing attention to the fact that you are not only getting buried, you are getting buried even worse than you report.
Thanks, I do know how...............but particular to Saratoga, wht should I be looking for.
Much appreciated,
Thanks
Like Ron just said its a graveyard for favs. Stay away from drop down in class horses especially if they get bet down.
Mainly look for Ny based trainers in claiming races. This track is filled with rich tourists so always look for value when betting.
I can spit out about another 100 angles but I can't because I will upset some people.
You're wrong, not all that matters is winning. Both are very important.
Say we both make the same two bets on a given day. First bet is a favourite on the ML and the second bet is an underdog on the money line.
I bet the favourite at -220 while you bet it later in the day at -240. You take the underdog at +160 while I had it earlier at +180. At the end of the day, the favourite loses and the underdog wins.
- My results are -220 + 180 = -40
-Your results are -240 +160 = -80.
Say our units were $1K. That gives me a loss of $400 while you lost $800. You did $400 worse than me.
I hope it's clear why CLV matters.
If ur going to say baseball is hard now because bg is getting crushed couldn't u just make the reverse argument and point to dr h success or paid03 success?
Yeah, let's not jump to the conclusion that the sky is falling just because BG is having a rough season.
Comments
My reply with still doesn't work so I'll cut/paste your reply.
I agree with what your saying but this is big boy school and to repeat if you haven't completely stop who's fault is that/
Saratoga and Del Mar are ATM's. Too bad they only happen 7 weeks a year.
I agree with what your saying but this is big boy school and to repeat if you haven't completely stop who's fault is that My point is it sucks to lose and we all have at one point or another but this beating a dead horse enough already. The Doc did stop his sides and he did a good thing but he still had something to offer which was total's and he should commended for that. But tell the truth if you were in BG's spot would you just quit? You'll always have hope to cut into you loss's by picking up some units in the last 50 games or so going into next year. I doubt anybody is still playing his games they're just waiting for a refund. It sucks to lose but telling someone about everyday is overkill.
Better you than me. I cringe at the lenght of the Spa stretch. I'll wait until they go back to the city. Del Mar nice retreat.
The best part of that is, when another poster asked him to explain himself in simpler English , he said I don't know how to.
Really ? How the hell does he order breakfast ? Lmao
Hasn't it always been that way? -105/-105 widely available on baseball games, even bookmaker ditched the -110 model on baseball.
Consensus seemed to be that the NFL is the most difficult market to beat as a handicapper. I remember a couple of guys on here saying: "If you can beat the NFL, you can beat almost every other market". They never mentioned the MLB as such. But looking at the your argument and the growth of the sabermetric crowd, that statement is probably wrong.
If ur going to say baseball is hard now because bg is getting crushed couldn't u just make the reverse argument and point to dr h success or paid03 success?
I remember reading in Ken Uston's book that he had a card-counting team in Europe, that went through a 6 month stretch of negative variance at the tables. It took them 6 months to get back into the black with the same counters that had lifted AC and Vegas for thousands every weekend. While it's hard to do given his current record, I'm still keeping the possibility open of such a negative variance stretch for BG's model too.
Another thing which I've seen with many handicappers is that they perform differently in different parts of the season. Some are very good at the beginning of the season. Others are better in the latter stages or in the play-offs. Most of the sharpest guys agree on softer lines being available in the beginning of the season (for any sport). But how do you explain others absolutely killing it in the 2nd half? Just variance? Or are their models a better fit for that part of the season?
Obv bg has had a shit ton of negative variance. But he's only beating the close by 0.81 percent per play. That's not going to produce winning results. As far as groups getting weaker/stronger as the season goes on I think that some groups adjust much better as the season progresses where some groups have stronger models for the early parts of a season.
I will be at Saratoga next week..........I know very little about horse racing, have some friends who spend the summer in Lake George.
Can you suggest any material I can use to do my due dilligence so I cat least have a fighting chance ?
Thanks
He actually isn't beating the close at all. The "0.81%" figure ignores the vig, which in my experience, is kind of important in calculating sports betting results.
CLV has never,ever meant much to me!!!
All that matters is winning!!!
Agreed! This is not happening to other groups. Just because a guy goes bad doesn't mean the market is tougher. It happens.
You can't get paid on the above.
No doubt it was inadvertent, but nothing like drawing attention to the fact that you are not only getting buried, you are getting buried even worse than you report.
Thanks, I do know how...............but particular to Saratoga, wht should I be looking for.
Much appreciated,
Thanks
Whatever this rep is worth it's been know as the "Graveyard of Favorites."
Like Ron just said its a graveyard for favs. Stay away from drop down in class horses especially if they get bet down.
Mainly look for Ny based trainers in claiming races. This track is filled with rich tourists so always look for value when betting.
I can spit out about another 100 angles but I can't because I will upset some people.
You're wrong, not all that matters is winning. Both are very important.
Say we both make the same two bets on a given day. First bet is a favourite on the ML and the second bet is an underdog on the money line.
I bet the favourite at -220 while you bet it later in the day at -240. You take the underdog at +160 while I had it earlier at +180. At the end of the day, the favourite loses and the underdog wins.
- My results are -220 + 180 = -40
-Your results are -240 +160 = -80.
Say our units were $1K. That gives me a loss of $400 while you lost $800. You did $400 worse than me.
I hope it's clear why CLV matters.
Yeah, let's not jump to the conclusion that the sky is falling just because BG is having a rough season.