What a great day... Where are all the variance guys at?? Or what about ... It's a marathon, not a sprint... Or my personal favorite.. Don't sweat the games.. This has become a joke of a season.
One of my guys said to me this week " what are you doing in bases this year, ur getting killed. Take some time off". One of my books said that to me...SMH
I don't subscribe to BG but a buddy of mine does. It's got to the point where before I place a bet, I ask if BG is on the same side as me. If yes, I don't bet the game. True Story.
I don't subscribe to BG but a buddy of mine does. It's got to the point where before I place a bet, I ask if BG is on the same side as me. If yes, I don't bet the game. True Story.
cmon coops. where are your plays this year brother . kidden obviously but I actually miss seeing your action. good or bad it creates views on this forum.
The Sox actually had 13 hits last night, they should have scored more than 2 runs with that many hits
They have 784 hits as a team and that's only about 40 less then all the division leaders except Atlanta and Washington where they more then those two. They just don't get that timely hit when needed.
ramirez sitting for the white sox is killing us 3 innings in. Missed a grounder to keep the runner at 3rd, missed another one that should've been a DP and just threw wide to beckman to only get one, instead of a DP.
Are you seriously comparing me forgetting to update my NBA record posting for free at a forum in a sport that I clearly stated wasn't my specialty to you not updating your record after people paid $1750 for your picks?
Also, deflecting and attacking me doesn't address the issue of you not updating you record.
Imagine how it feels if you're buying the picks and currently down ~45 units, yet your website shows -37. It's completely disingenuous, not to mention the fact that you insta-update after winning nights.
A simple "yeah, I should get on that" would have sufficed, and I would have left well enough alone. I've even defended you multiple times in this thread. But shit that was a weak ass reply.
Are you seriously comparing me forgetting to update my NBA record posting for free at a forum in a sport that I clearly stated wasn't my specialty to you not updating your record after people paid $1750 for your picks?
Also, deflecting and attacking me doesn't address the issue of you not updating you record.
Imagine how it feels if you're buying the picks and currently down ~45 units, yet your website shows -37. It's completely disingenuous, not to mention the fact that you insta-update after winning nights.
A simple "yeah, I should get on that" would have sufficed, and I would have left well enough alone. I've even defended you multiple times in this thread. But shit that was a weak ass reply.
There have been several times this year that I forgot to update the record the following morning, which I can assure has zero correlation to the previous days performance. There is also no "insta-updating" winning nights (purposely). Agree that given the horrible performance, I should be more attentive record updating to provide an accurate picture of whats going on. Thanks for the heads up.
There have been several times this year that I forgot to update the record the following morning, which I can assure has zero correlation to the previous days performance. There is also no "insta-updating" winning nights (purposely). Agree that given the horrible performance, I should be more attentive record updating to provide an accurate picture of whats going on. Thanks for the heads up.
I will say I have noticed non updates after both winning and losing nights so he is correct there. It just seems to happen more on losing days primarily because losing days make up a bulk of the service days since its inception so odds of his delay days falling on losing days are pretty high. Hopefully those left get lucky and it at least turns around a little. Good luck
Someone enlighten me on the rules in a game like this. They said it's now an official game...does that mean a bet in NY is a loser and Under is a Winner? Haven't had this situation happen to me in quite a while. Thanks gentleman
Someone enlighten me on the rules in a game like this. They said it's now an official game...does that mean a bet in NY is a loser and Under is a Winner? Haven't had this situation happen to me in quite a while. Thanks gentleman
Yankees on money line would be a loser. Runline and totals bets would be no-action.
BG, I noticed you've played 419 plays thus far with the service compared to only 206 last year (beg season to ASB) and 163 in 2012 (which covered the entire season). I was wondering if you could provide some insight on why the volume has become significantly higher. Where you only posting your strongest stuff? Thanks.
BG, I noticed you've played 419 plays thus far with the service compared to only 206 last year (beg season to ASB) and 163 in 2012 (which covered the entire season). I was wondering if you could provide some insight on why the volume has become significantly higher. Where you only posting your strongest stuff? Thanks.
Two different engagement models. When running a service, the goal should be to maximize the value of the service. This should lead to giving out as much perceived value as possible (with some valuation risk measures in place). Posting on forums, that's not necessarily the objective on should practice. In past years, days when one or two plays were being posted, they were often taken from a pool of 6 to 8 plays with perceived similar value. If the service was run in years past, volume would be closer to what this year has generated (with obviously different results). Also, I don't think I ever posted start to finish in years past, which also curtailed volume a bit.
I saw a one hour lecture by the winner of last year's LVH Supercontest. He's a statistician and financial trader. In this lecture he roughly explained how to build a model. He said that the same model is going to have differing results over the years, to the point where after a couple of years the model is not a good predictor of the games anymore, as the coaching strategies and rules of the games evolve. I understand that you can't reveal too much, but do you agree on this statement and if so how can you account for it in your models? Would it be as simple as knowing which were the basic assumptions behind the first model and checking whether those assumptions still hold true?
I saw a one hour lecture by the winner of last year's LVH Supercontest. He's a statistician and financial trader. In this lecture he roughly explained how to build a model. He said that the same model is going to have differing results over the years, to the point where after a couple of years the model is not a good predictor of the games anymore, as the coaching strategies and rules of the games evolve. I understand that you can't reveal too much, but do you agree on this statement and if so how can you account for it in your models? Would it be as simple as knowing which were the basic assumptions behind the first model and checking whether those assumptions still hold true?
Is that lecture somewhere online by chance? Would be very interested in hearing it
Is that lecture somewhere online by chance? Would be very interested in hearing it
Of course it's fun to hear from the winner of the LVH, but it's not like he's uncovering earth-shattering info. A couple of interesting bits in his lecture (for PROMYS) during last summer. Just before he had 2 entries in the Supercontest and won with 1 of them. Not that there's a doubt in my mind about CLV, but it was fun hearing him mention it to the students. It's the one thing he measures his models by. Not the actual results of the models, but he really wants to know whether his picks are getting market agreement.
http://vimeo.com/70385197
(make sure you have all other sounds turned off. The volume on this lecture is really low.)
Hey BG,
He said that the same model is going to have differing results over the years, to the point where after a couple of years the model is not a good predictor of the games anymore, as the coaching strategies and rules of the games evolve. I understand that you can't reveal too much, but do you agree on this statement and if so how can you account for it in your models?
To a degree. The modeling process should be dynamic. In baseball, from one year to another, a +EV model is more prone to discounting error arising in other facets than league changes.
Someone enlighten me on the rules in a game like this. They said it's now an official game...does that mean a bet in NY is a loser and Under is a Winner? Haven't had this situation happen to me in quite a while. Thanks gentleman
I had a question on this too, i had orioles 1H and orioles game. for some reason, the game was graded a winner but the 1h wasnt. does that sound right? that seems dumb to me
I saw a one hour lecture by the winner of last year's LVH Supercontest. He's a statistician and financial trader. In this lecture he roughly explained how to build a model. He said that the same model is going to have differing results over the years, to the point where after a couple of years the model is not a good predictor of the games anymore, as the coaching strategies and rules of the games evolve. I understand that you can't reveal too much, but do you agree on this statement and if so how can you account for it in your models? Would it be as simple as knowing which were the basic assumptions behind the first model and checking whether those assumptions still hold true?
Generalizations are almost always false. I'm a huge proponent of perpetual adaptation, but the frequency of necessity for such adaptations depend on many things: such as the market being attacked and the metric in question. A blanket statement of "a couple of years" is incredibly naive.
I had a question on this too, i had orioles 1H and orioles game. for some reason, the game was graded a winner but the 1h wasnt. does that sound right? that seems dumb to me
I believe the only bets that are good in a rain-shortened game are ML, everything else is no-actioned.
Comments
One of my guys said to me this week " what are you doing in bases this year, ur getting killed. Take some time off". One of my books said that to me...SMH
cmon coops. where are your plays this year brother
Well they haven't hit all year so...
The Sox actually had 13 hits last night, they should have scored more than 2 runs with that many hits
They have 784 hits as a team and that's only about 40 less then all the division leaders except Atlanta and Washington where they more then those two. They just don't get that timely hit when needed.
Only when you are losing.
Have at it.
http://www.bettingtalk.com/forum/showthread.php/176583-2014-NBA-Playoffs/page3
Are you seriously comparing me forgetting to update my NBA record posting for free at a forum in a sport that I clearly stated wasn't my specialty to you not updating your record after people paid $1750 for your picks?
Also, deflecting and attacking me doesn't address the issue of you not updating you record.
Imagine how it feels if you're buying the picks and currently down ~45 units, yet your website shows -37. It's completely disingenuous, not to mention the fact that you insta-update after winning nights.
A simple "yeah, I should get on that" would have sufficed, and I would have left well enough alone. I've even defended you multiple times in this thread. But shit that was a weak ass reply.
There have been several times this year that I forgot to update the record the following morning, which I can assure has zero correlation to the previous days performance. There is also no "insta-updating" winning nights (purposely). Agree that given the horrible performance, I should be more attentive record updating to provide an accurate picture of whats going on. Thanks for the heads up.
I will say I have noticed non updates after both winning and losing nights so he is correct there. It just seems to happen more on losing days primarily because losing days make up a bulk of the service days since its inception so odds of his delay days falling on losing days are pretty high. Hopefully those left get lucky and it at least turns around a little. Good luck
Yankees on money line would be a loser. Runline and totals bets would be no-action.
I saw a one hour lecture by the winner of last year's LVH Supercontest. He's a statistician and financial trader. In this lecture he roughly explained how to build a model. He said that the same model is going to have differing results over the years, to the point where after a couple of years the model is not a good predictor of the games anymore, as the coaching strategies and rules of the games evolve. I understand that you can't reveal too much, but do you agree on this statement and if so how can you account for it in your models? Would it be as simple as knowing which were the basic assumptions behind the first model and checking whether those assumptions still hold true?
Is that lecture somewhere online by chance? Would be very interested in hearing it
Of course it's fun to hear from the winner of the LVH, but it's not like he's uncovering earth-shattering info. A couple of interesting bits in his lecture (for PROMYS) during last summer. Just before he had 2 entries in the Supercontest and won with 1 of them. Not that there's a doubt in my mind about CLV, but it was fun hearing him mention it to the students. It's the one thing he measures his models by. Not the actual results of the models, but he really wants to know whether his picks are getting market agreement.
http://vimeo.com/70385197
(make sure you have all other sounds turned off. The volume on this lecture is really low.)
I don't get it BG. Why the previous shortened seasons?
I had a question on this too, i had orioles 1H and orioles game. for some reason, the game was graded a winner but the 1h wasnt. does that sound right? that seems dumb to me
Generalizations are almost always false. I'm a huge proponent of perpetual adaptation, but the frequency of necessity for such adaptations depend on many things: such as the market being attacked and the metric in question. A blanket statement of "a couple of years" is incredibly naive.
Last year he posted that he was done posting plays at the all star break but he was still playing on his own after that.