richhhh
richhhh · Junior Member
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Hypothetical lets assume you have gift of knowing when MLB aces will not start when they are scheduled to before the markets react to this information. You do not even bother to research any further and bet blindly . You have averaged a 30% ROI the …
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I bet different market then most of you folks but pretty sure the whole bet one unit (or bet to win one unit) is just to show a non polluted record and used for record keeping purposes when in reality advantage bettors are likely to vary bet sizes …
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I am not betting same market as you folks but I make ten of thousands of parlays per year which pay 3/1 all the way to 10000/1. Some wagers are $2 and others are $1000 . If I flat bet I would either be broke and or not achieving optimum growth . Sa…
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(Quote) Do not actually follow collage sports. When I first read your post I thought I was perfect . Something seemed odd about the "lmao" So I looked at first game. Disqualified ! I honestly just went down the list and took the team…
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10:NC Central +15.5 9:Tex San Antonio +7.5 8:San Diego State +4.5 7:Arkansas St+6.5 6: UL Lafayette +6.5 5:Central Michigan +12.5 4:Memphis +5.5 3: Idaho +13.5 2. Wake Forest +12.5 1. Clemson +3.5
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(Quote) Unless they make the playoffs losing all their games:laughing: Yeah looks like I made a mistake. Still point is valid.
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(Quote) Detroit lost all games in 2008 if I remember correctly. Also if your referring to betting against the spread and not actual winning vs losing types bets which your post did not mention the idea that this has not happen yet is not surprisi…
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DR H is a unique situation.He Seems to be a bit shady and willing to pollute his records by changing name/hand pick his records to only include the best situation i.e. not including previous losing years. On the other hand I would think since he has…
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(Quote) Nope not aware or frequent many forums, This one and a another one that is specific to my market I attack.
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(Quote) Why would someone who can beat large markets tout picks? Ras is the most reputable tout there is. Its better for them to tout picks instead of wager I assume because they are touting collage games and collage derivatives of games. This is…
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Every market is beatable and that last poster is not lucky, he is a skilled handicapper., He has defined what is predictive for the future and accounted randomness better then the market.
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A coin flip landing on heads has a 50% probability. After to 2 coin flips in a row that each land on heads the probability of the third flip to be heads is 50%. The coin cant really try harder to be tails. You believe a team will and while doing so…
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Shot differential at the top/ Place with Buffalo and Toronto at the bottom. 2 years straight? Looks like it. Go hurricanes! Was not aware there was a respected nhl handicapper. Thought everyone was collage sports in here. First thing I did was c…
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The problem with any system that it lacks a actual win probability, even if there was a profitable system you will never know if the market has caught up to you and you lost any edge that was present in the past. Speaking of the past why not test th…
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Imagine a world without juice! lol likey beat him by blindly betting dogs.
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(Quote) A math model can take everything into account, some things are more difficult then others.No model is perfect or required to be perfect to be a advanage player, your model only has to be better then your Bookies model/line.
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This looks like a Great way to get a feel for your service without having to pay! I am already funded at some those fantasy sites but I could try a new one to take advanage of this offer. Should note that that fanduel offers a much larger bonus th…
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Is there some sort of release requirement for the ras voucher like there would be for the the fantasy bonus? I have a Off topic question as well, when Ras releases a play is there anything in regards to how large the expected edge is?
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(Quote) Based on the lines you provided over 7.5 has a 58% win probability. Not sure how accurate this will be but using the Binomial distribution over 7.5 wins in 16 games with a 58% win probability gives a per game win% of 49.5%. Based on this …
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Played around with a database of last 10 years. Very well could be prone to errors. Using the implied win% from the current lines I used historic closing lines implied win% that match your games. I set the range of money line implied win% to less …
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Bookmaker is down as well
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(Quote) Agree
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100% efficient no, but in my above example with cin on the open where I removed the vig then calculated a win% from the close and then applied this win% to the odds that I received on the open to acquire a ROI is efficient enough to make money long…
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Possibly Not understanding what exactly your doing, but this is how i understood the idea. Here is a game from the other night and what happens when you apply this betting. TIME WSH CIN 05/30 03:34 PM 2.02 1.91 0…
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You could use historic results from past years. Use last 500 games or so where the closing spread was +5 and calculate what percent that team covered 7.5. Bigger sample the better so adjust the lines to meet the sample requirements. Some numbers me…
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Would that not leave 1st winning a total of 2500$(4000-1500) and second winning a total of 4000(1500+2500) leaving you in exact same spot but paying the money to 2nd instead of first. Personally I think you win either way and just leave it at that a…
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I recently joined this site with the purposes to scrap up some mathematical post from the past that would help me improve my skills as a handicapper. I believe the search bar is useless because I have yet to find anything that I would even consider…
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I have a bookie that will allow correlated soccer ties with unders but has to much juice :( Example Cagliari vs Juventus Win Probability 69.6% 20.2% 10.2% Odds 1.25 4.50 8.00 Correct Odds 1.44 4.95 9.81 Edge -13.0% -9.1% -18.4% TOTAL…
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First post here! I can only speak for myself, Opened 2 accounts with bodog in 2014. One of which was mine and other was gf's (different address) I am a +ev prop bettor and Both account's have been limited followed with this email below We are w…