Betting Talk

2015 MLB side/total parlay experiment

mgmhatesmemgmhatesme Member
edited June 2015 in Sports Betting
Not suggesting anyone follow blindly as I am a novice with MLB and this is a new strategy... posting experiment of my MLB straight plays compared to parlay of a possible correlated side/total. Lines from bookmaker.

Straight:
901 Cubs +120
903 SF -127
905 SD +102
917 LAA +101
930 MIN -133

Parlay:
901 Cubs +120 and over 7.5, +105....1 to win 3.51
905 SD +102 and over 7.5, -115... 1 to win 2.77

All will be at 1 unit for record keeping, in actuality I played 0.5 units on teams that shared a straight wager and a parlay.

Comments

  • originalokieoriginalokie Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    Best
  • mgmhatesmemgmhatesme Member
    edited June 2015
    Following BG on a couple plays I liked from him. Note that parlays will be a subset of straight plays... This experiment is basically looking to replace some of the straight wagers I like when the reason for the wager is highly correlated to a total (in the bettor's opinion). Also as noted previously, I will be actually playing CWS at 0.5 units straight and the parlay at 0.5 units, so it is not weighted higher than the other picks. For record keeping on the website though, all plays rated at 1 unit. Thanks, good luck all

    Straight:
    924 CWS -126
    926 KC -150
    Parlay:
    924 CWS -126 and over 8,-110.... 1 to win 2.424
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    Consider that home/over and away/under don't correlate well because the bottom of 9th only gets played when the home team is behind.
  • BuckyBadgerBuckyBadger Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    Dr. H wrote: »
    Consider that home/over and away/under don't correlate well because the bottom of 9th only gets played when the home team is behind.

    MGM--this was the same point I was making yesterday (less concisely, I might add) about the home/over and away/under correlations that Cutter used to advocate at "Beyond Capping". I noticed that your parlay yesterday of Balt/under did win, but in the long run this away/under parlay would have negative implications. Same premise for your CWS/over play today, would hold true.
  • mgmhatesmemgmhatesme Member
    edited June 2015
    Thanks, I considered the 9th inning implication you guys mentioned and the first 2 parlays fit... The CWS did not, but I liked the play regardless. It is probably wiser to skip these situations for the long run as you guys mention though.... Will keep in mind, thanks for looking out.

    Note also pitching change for Cin against SD. Current bookmaker odds:

    Straight:
    905 SD -123
    Parlay:
    905 SD -123 and over 7.5, -120.... 1 to win 2.324
  • originalokieoriginalokie Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    Dr. H wrote: »
    Consider that home/over and away/under don't correlate well because the bottom of 9th only gets played when the home team is behind.

    How well I have learned!!!

    Best Doc
  • mgmhatesmemgmhatesme Member
    edited June 2015
    Straight: 3-4, -1.83
    Parlay:1-2, +0.324
    Straight wagers used in parlay for comparison:2-1, +1

    Very prescient on the CWS parlay yesterday on the comments guys... Even though the game went 11 innings, it ended with bases loaded and 0 outs for CWS... If they are the away team, that parlay likely would have been a winner. I will stick to leaving those out in the future. Thanks for the comments.
  • mgmhatesmemgmhatesme Member
    edited June 2015
    Following BG on a number of plays... Again this thread is mainly for the comparison of side/total parlays vs just wagering on a side.
    Straight:
    953 SF -194
    964 LAD -190
    969 OAK +101
    978 SEA -171
    979 MIL +114

    Parlays:
    964 LAD -190 and under 6, even. 1 to win 2.053
    979 MIL +114 and over 8.5, -110. 1 to win 3.085

    Good luck all
  • mgmhatesmemgmhatesme Member
    edited June 2015
    Adding

    Straight:
    968 KC -146
    Parlay:
    968 KC -146 and under 7.5, -105.... 1 to win 2.29
  • mgmhatesmemgmhatesme Member
    edited June 2015
    Adding
    Parlay: 978 SEA -172 and under 6.5, +105.... 1 to win 2.242
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    I'm not sure if there is any truth to this or not, and I can't remember right now where I read it.
    But it stated that any team that is Fav over -120 and the total is 8.5 or higher that the dog has a good chance of winning.
    Probably just data mining crap.
  • mgmhatesmemgmhatesme Member
    edited June 2015
    Interesting point... agree that on totals that high they are expecting both teams to score and you can infer that the dog has a better chance than the market is stating perhaps... Held true with MIL today at least.
  • mgmhatesmemgmhatesme Member
    edited June 2015
    Adding
    Straight:
    979 DET, -173
  • mgmhatesmemgmhatesme Member
    edited June 2015
    Straight: 8-6, +0.85
    Parlays: 3-4, +2.619
    Straight wagers used in parlays for comparison: 5-2, +2.68

    Lines from bookmaker
    901 SD +150
    908 WAS -140
    909/910 COL/MIA over 11, -110
    911 NYM -126
    914 LAD -160
    927 TB -135
    930 MIN -101

    Parlays:
    901 SD +150 and over 7, -120.... 1 to win 3.583
    930 MIN -101 and under 8.5, -115.... 1 to win 2.721

    Good luck all
  • mgmhatesmemgmhatesme Member
    edited June 2015
    Adding
    Parlay:
    914 LAD -156, under 6.5, -115.... 1 to win 2.068
  • mgmhatesmemgmhatesme Member
    edited June 2015
    Straight: 11-10, -1.25
    Parlays: 4-6, +3.34
    straight wagers used in parlays for comparison: 6-4, +1.08

    6/8 (bookmaker)
    952 PIT -146
    953 PHI +103
    955 SD +121
    962 CWS -145
    964 MIN -105

    parlays:
    952 PIT -146 and under 7.5, -120.... 1 to win 2.09
    953 PHI +103 and over 7, -110...... 1 to win 2.875
    955 SD +121 and over 7.5, even.... 1 to win 3.42
    962 CWS -145 and under 7, -105.... 1 to win 2.299

    good luck all
  • mgmhatesmemgmhatesme Member
    edited June 2015
    straight: 13-13, -2.55
    parlays: 6-8, +7.059
    (straight wagers used in parlays for comparison: 8-6, +0.83)

    6/9, bookmaker
    902 PIT -205
    903 PHI +125
    905 SF +110
    907 SD -126
    921 HOU -140
    924 OAK -182
    927/928 WAS/NYY under 7, -105

    parlays:
    902 PIT -205 and under 7.5, -120.... 1 to win 1.728
    903 PHI +125 and over 7.5, -115.... 1 to win 3.207
    905 SF +110 and over 7, -115.... 1 to win 2.926
    924 OAK -182 and under 7, -115.... 1 to win 1.897

    good luck all
  • mgmhatesmemgmhatesme Member
    edited June 2015
    following BG on the SEA pick and adding it in a parlay

    straight:
    917 SEA +164

    parlay:
    917 SEA +164 and over 7, -115..... 1 to win 3.977
  • mgmhatesmemgmhatesme Member
    edited June 2015
    was out of town with family (went to Stanley Cup game) so did not post... did much better last few days following BG on his picks than capping on my own (he has gone 9-1 last 2 days, thanks BG). This needs more serious consideration on my part and will look to create more parlays from his picks in future.

    main reason for this thread also is to see difference from straight wagers to parlays for same/side total... hopefully people can use this info once there is a meaningful sample size to see if this strategy makes sense.

    Straight: 15-18, -7.34
    Parlays: 6-12, +3.059
    (straight wagers used in parlays for comparison 9-9, -2.94)

    6/12 bookmaker
    straight:
    952 CUB -119
    959 WAS -109
    966 DET -117
    964 SF -149
    975 SEA -132

    Parlays:
    952 CUB -119 and under 6.5, -115.... 1 to win 2.441
    964 SF -149 and under 6, +105.... 1 to win 2.426
    966 DET -117 and under 7.5, +105... 1 to win 2.802

    good luck all
  • mgmhatesmemgmhatesme Member
    edited June 2015
    Adding
    Straight:
    970 BOS-105
    974 TEX -132
    Parlay:
    974 TEX -132 and under 9, -105.... 1 to win 2.45
  • mgmhatesmemgmhatesme Member
    edited June 2015
    This is a small sample size, but still somewhat interesting... I am doing terrible at picks, yet parlays are still positive. This strategy could have merit more in the hands of a better capper.

    Straight: 17-23, -11.23
    Parlay: 8-14, +6.311
    (Straight wagers used in parlays: 11-11, -3.62)

    6/13, bookmaker
    Straight:
    902 PIT -275
    903 ATL +138
    905 WAS +106
    917 MIN +116
    921 SEA +125
    924 TB -170
    926 BAL -104
    915 TOR +116

    Parlays
    902 PIT -275 and under 7.5, -120... 1 to win 1.5
    924 TB -170 and under 6.5, -120.... 1 to win 1.912
    915 TOR +116 and over 9, even... 1 to win 3.32

    Good luck
  • mgmhatesmemgmhatesme Member
    edited June 2015
    A lot of plays... Units are 1% of bankroll... Following a pick from BG and adding a parlay
    Straight:
    920 DET +102
    Parlay:
    920 DET +102 and under 8, -105.... 1 to win 2.944
  • mgmhatesmemgmhatesme Member
    edited June 2015
    Adding

    Straight:
    913 LAD -155
    Parlay
    913 LAD -155 and over 7, -110.... 1 to win 2.141
  • mgmhatesmemgmhatesme Member
    edited June 2015
    Straight: 24-26, -6.93
    Parlays: 10-17, +5.971
    (Straight wagers used in parlays for comparison: 14-13, -3.01)
  • mgmhatesmemgmhatesme Member
    edited June 2015
    6/14 bookmaker
    Straight (following BG and adding SF and CWS)
    952 NYM -128
    954 MIA -141
    960 SF -150
    967 CWS -140
    972 BOS -116
    973 SEA +130

    Parlays:
    954 MIA -141 and under 7, +105..... 1 to win 2.504
    960 SF -150 and under 7.5, -110... 1 to win 2.182
    972 BOS -116 and under 8.5, -110.... 1 to win 2.555

    Good luck all
  • mgmhatesmemgmhatesme Member
    edited June 2015
    Adding
    Straight:
    962 SD -101
    Parlay:
    962 SD -101 and under 7, -115.... 1 to win 2.721
  • mgmhatesmemgmhatesme Member
    edited June 2015
    clearly horrific picks on my part… that was not the point of this thread. Trying to show whether a strategy of parlays compared to sides only makes sense, when the handicapper feels the side/total is well correlated. This data can be interpreted/useful in bad days as well as good. Ton of plays today, I am likely stretching the number of plays than preferable to get more data, added BG's picks to my list to include with parlays.

    straight: 25-32, -13.41
    parlays: 10-21, +1.971
    (straight wagers used in parlays for comparison: -8.09)

    6/15 bookmaker
    straight:
    901 CWS/PIT under 7, -115
    906 BAL -190
    907 WAS -103
    909 ATL +153
    911 TOR +107
    913 NYY -145
    924 STL -156
    926 LAA -145
    928 SD -114
    930 SF -112

    parlays:
    906 BAL -190 and under 8, -110…. 1 to win 1.914
    907 WAS -103 and over 7, even…. 1 to win 2.942
    909 ATL +153 and over 8, -110…. 1 to win 3.83
    924 STL -156 and under 7, -125… 1 to win 1.954
    926 LAA -145 and under 7.5, -110…. 1 to win 2.226
    928 SD -114 and under 6.5, -105…. 1 to win 2.665
    930 SF -112 and under 7.5, -120…. 1 to win 2.47

    good luck all, ill take some too
  • richhhhrichhhh Junior Member
    edited June 2015
    Played around with a database of last 10 years. Very well could be prone to errors. Using the implied win% from the current lines I used historic closing lines implied win% that match your games. I set the range of money line implied win% to less then 3%. I then filtered the totals to match exactly as well. I did not however adjust for favoritism with the totals.
    906 BAL -190 and under 8, -110…. 1 to win 1.914 win% 30.8% win/push 5.9% sample/556 (games) roi -4.5%
    907 WAS -103 and over 7, even…. 1 to win 2.942 win% 22.7 % win/push 5.3% sample/533 roi -5%
    909 ATL +153 and over 8, -110…. 1 to win 3.83 win% 17.2% win/push 3.4% sample/728 roi -10.5%
    924 STL -156 and under 7, -125… 1 to win 1.954 win% 30% win/push 7.0% sample/500 roi-4.5%
    926 LAA -145 and under 7.5, -110…. 1 to win 2.226 win% 30.7% sample/934 roi% -1%
    928 SD -114 and under 6.5, -105…. 1 to win 2.665 win% 28.8 sample/222 roi% +5%
    930 SF -112 and under 7.5, -120…. 1 to win 2.47 win%27.5 sample/870 roi%-4.5


    If pinnacle did not reduce odds for parlays blindly betting VO/HU could be profitable. Again take what I posted above with a grain of salt as I did it rather quickly out of curiosity and it could be prone to errors.
  • mgmhatesmemgmhatesme Member
    edited June 2015
    Thanks Richhhh, the rules of this idea were basically that:
    - find sides that you like
    - find a subset of those side where you feel the side is well correlated with the total…e.g. dominant pitching and under… good hitting, getting to an opposing pitcher / defense and over… this should not be all the sides that you like and just blindly parlaying… the point is that if the reason you are taking the side is similar to the reason for a total wager, then consider the parlay
    - only consider H/U and A/O for this
    - perhaps it would be helpful to backtest all H/U and A/O parlays with closing prices if possible

    clearly, I have not picked well on the sides, although I don't think it diminishes the idea that this could have merit in the hands of a better MLB capper. The parlays relatively outperformed the straight wagers and theoretically if one could pick straight wagers, this could help improve your return. I will let this thread die after today though, as my ROI (both time and money) has been terrible and I will go back to following BG, circle jerk and few others perhaps and just find some parlays from their picks that I like. I did handicap today, so will roll with this today and let this thread die after that.

    record
    straight: 28-39, -18.22
    parlays: 12-26, +0.839
    (straight wagers used in parlays for comparison: -9.3)

    6/16 bookmaker
    straight:
    951 MIN +153
    953 COL +158
    958 SF -112
    959 ATL +146
    966 PIT -145
    967 NYY -113
    971 WAS +124

    parlays:
    953 COL +153 and over 8.5, -110…. 1 to win 3.925
    966 PIT -145 and under 7, -110…. 1 to win 2.226
    967 NYY -113 and over 7.5, even… 1 to win 2.77
    971 WAS +124 and over 7.5, even… 1 to win 3.48

    good luck all
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