2015 MLB side/total parlay experiment
mgmhatesme
Member
Not suggesting anyone follow blindly as I am a novice with MLB and this is a new strategy... posting experiment of my MLB straight plays compared to parlay of a possible correlated side/total. Lines from bookmaker.
Straight:
901 Cubs +120
903 SF -127
905 SD +102
917 LAA +101
930 MIN -133
Parlay:
901 Cubs +120 and over 7.5, +105....1 to win 3.51
905 SD +102 and over 7.5, -115... 1 to win 2.77
All will be at 1 unit for record keeping, in actuality I played 0.5 units on teams that shared a straight wager and a parlay.
Straight:
901 Cubs +120
903 SF -127
905 SD +102
917 LAA +101
930 MIN -133
Parlay:
901 Cubs +120 and over 7.5, +105....1 to win 3.51
905 SD +102 and over 7.5, -115... 1 to win 2.77
All will be at 1 unit for record keeping, in actuality I played 0.5 units on teams that shared a straight wager and a parlay.
Comments
Straight:
924 CWS -126
926 KC -150
Parlay:
924 CWS -126 and over 8,-110.... 1 to win 2.424
MGM--this was the same point I was making yesterday (less concisely, I might add) about the home/over and away/under correlations that Cutter used to advocate at "Beyond Capping". I noticed that your parlay yesterday of Balt/under did win, but in the long run this away/under parlay would have negative implications. Same premise for your CWS/over play today, would hold true.
Note also pitching change for Cin against SD. Current bookmaker odds:
Straight:
905 SD -123
Parlay:
905 SD -123 and over 7.5, -120.... 1 to win 2.324
How well I have learned!!!
Best Doc
Parlay:1-2, +0.324
Straight wagers used in parlay for comparison:2-1, +1
Very prescient on the CWS parlay yesterday on the comments guys... Even though the game went 11 innings, it ended with bases loaded and 0 outs for CWS... If they are the away team, that parlay likely would have been a winner. I will stick to leaving those out in the future. Thanks for the comments.
Straight:
953 SF -194
964 LAD -190
969 OAK +101
978 SEA -171
979 MIL +114
Parlays:
964 LAD -190 and under 6, even. 1 to win 2.053
979 MIL +114 and over 8.5, -110. 1 to win 3.085
Good luck all
Straight:
968 KC -146
Parlay:
968 KC -146 and under 7.5, -105.... 1 to win 2.29
Parlay: 978 SEA -172 and under 6.5, +105.... 1 to win 2.242
But it stated that any team that is Fav over -120 and the total is 8.5 or higher that the dog has a good chance of winning.
Probably just data mining crap.
Straight:
979 DET, -173
Parlays: 3-4, +2.619
Straight wagers used in parlays for comparison: 5-2, +2.68
Lines from bookmaker
901 SD +150
908 WAS -140
909/910 COL/MIA over 11, -110
911 NYM -126
914 LAD -160
927 TB -135
930 MIN -101
Parlays:
901 SD +150 and over 7, -120.... 1 to win 3.583
930 MIN -101 and under 8.5, -115.... 1 to win 2.721
Good luck all
Parlay:
914 LAD -156, under 6.5, -115.... 1 to win 2.068
Parlays: 4-6, +3.34
straight wagers used in parlays for comparison: 6-4, +1.08
6/8 (bookmaker)
952 PIT -146
953 PHI +103
955 SD +121
962 CWS -145
964 MIN -105
parlays:
952 PIT -146 and under 7.5, -120.... 1 to win 2.09
953 PHI +103 and over 7, -110...... 1 to win 2.875
955 SD +121 and over 7.5, even.... 1 to win 3.42
962 CWS -145 and under 7, -105.... 1 to win 2.299
good luck all
parlays: 6-8, +7.059
(straight wagers used in parlays for comparison: 8-6, +0.83)
6/9, bookmaker
902 PIT -205
903 PHI +125
905 SF +110
907 SD -126
921 HOU -140
924 OAK -182
927/928 WAS/NYY under 7, -105
parlays:
902 PIT -205 and under 7.5, -120.... 1 to win 1.728
903 PHI +125 and over 7.5, -115.... 1 to win 3.207
905 SF +110 and over 7, -115.... 1 to win 2.926
924 OAK -182 and under 7, -115.... 1 to win 1.897
good luck all
straight:
917 SEA +164
parlay:
917 SEA +164 and over 7, -115..... 1 to win 3.977
main reason for this thread also is to see difference from straight wagers to parlays for same/side total... hopefully people can use this info once there is a meaningful sample size to see if this strategy makes sense.
Straight: 15-18, -7.34
Parlays: 6-12, +3.059
(straight wagers used in parlays for comparison 9-9, -2.94)
6/12 bookmaker
straight:
952 CUB -119
959 WAS -109
966 DET -117
964 SF -149
975 SEA -132
Parlays:
952 CUB -119 and under 6.5, -115.... 1 to win 2.441
964 SF -149 and under 6, +105.... 1 to win 2.426
966 DET -117 and under 7.5, +105... 1 to win 2.802
good luck all
Straight:
970 BOS-105
974 TEX -132
Parlay:
974 TEX -132 and under 9, -105.... 1 to win 2.45
Straight: 17-23, -11.23
Parlay: 8-14, +6.311
(Straight wagers used in parlays: 11-11, -3.62)
6/13, bookmaker
Straight:
902 PIT -275
903 ATL +138
905 WAS +106
917 MIN +116
921 SEA +125
924 TB -170
926 BAL -104
915 TOR +116
Parlays
902 PIT -275 and under 7.5, -120... 1 to win 1.5
924 TB -170 and under 6.5, -120.... 1 to win 1.912
915 TOR +116 and over 9, even... 1 to win 3.32
Good luck
Straight:
920 DET +102
Parlay:
920 DET +102 and under 8, -105.... 1 to win 2.944
Straight:
913 LAD -155
Parlay
913 LAD -155 and over 7, -110.... 1 to win 2.141
Parlays: 10-17, +5.971
(Straight wagers used in parlays for comparison: 14-13, -3.01)
Straight (following BG and adding SF and CWS)
952 NYM -128
954 MIA -141
960 SF -150
967 CWS -140
972 BOS -116
973 SEA +130
Parlays:
954 MIA -141 and under 7, +105..... 1 to win 2.504
960 SF -150 and under 7.5, -110... 1 to win 2.182
972 BOS -116 and under 8.5, -110.... 1 to win 2.555
Good luck all
Straight:
962 SD -101
Parlay:
962 SD -101 and under 7, -115.... 1 to win 2.721
straight: 25-32, -13.41
parlays: 10-21, +1.971
(straight wagers used in parlays for comparison: -8.09)
6/15 bookmaker
straight:
901 CWS/PIT under 7, -115
906 BAL -190
907 WAS -103
909 ATL +153
911 TOR +107
913 NYY -145
924 STL -156
926 LAA -145
928 SD -114
930 SF -112
parlays:
906 BAL -190 and under 8, -110 . 1 to win 1.914
907 WAS -103 and over 7, even . 1 to win 2.942
909 ATL +153 and over 8, -110 . 1 to win 3.83
924 STL -156 and under 7, -125 1 to win 1.954
926 LAA -145 and under 7.5, -110 . 1 to win 2.226
928 SD -114 and under 6.5, -105 . 1 to win 2.665
930 SF -112 and under 7.5, -120 . 1 to win 2.47
good luck all, ill take some too
906 BAL -190 and under 8, -110 . 1 to win 1.914 win% 30.8% win/push 5.9% sample/556 (games) roi -4.5%
907 WAS -103 and over 7, even . 1 to win 2.942 win% 22.7 % win/push 5.3% sample/533 roi -5%
909 ATL +153 and over 8, -110 . 1 to win 3.83 win% 17.2% win/push 3.4% sample/728 roi -10.5%
924 STL -156 and under 7, -125 1 to win 1.954 win% 30% win/push 7.0% sample/500 roi-4.5%
926 LAA -145 and under 7.5, -110 . 1 to win 2.226 win% 30.7% sample/934 roi% -1%
928 SD -114 and under 6.5, -105 . 1 to win 2.665 win% 28.8 sample/222 roi% +5%
930 SF -112 and under 7.5, -120 . 1 to win 2.47 win%27.5 sample/870 roi%-4.5
If pinnacle did not reduce odds for parlays blindly betting VO/HU could be profitable. Again take what I posted above with a grain of salt as I did it rather quickly out of curiosity and it could be prone to errors.
- find sides that you like
- find a subset of those side where you feel the side is well correlated with the total…e.g. dominant pitching and under… good hitting, getting to an opposing pitcher / defense and over… this should not be all the sides that you like and just blindly parlaying… the point is that if the reason you are taking the side is similar to the reason for a total wager, then consider the parlay
- only consider H/U and A/O for this
- perhaps it would be helpful to backtest all H/U and A/O parlays with closing prices if possible
clearly, I have not picked well on the sides, although I don't think it diminishes the idea that this could have merit in the hands of a better MLB capper. The parlays relatively outperformed the straight wagers and theoretically if one could pick straight wagers, this could help improve your return. I will let this thread die after today though, as my ROI (both time and money) has been terrible and I will go back to following BG, circle jerk and few others perhaps and just find some parlays from their picks that I like. I did handicap today, so will roll with this today and let this thread die after that.
record
straight: 28-39, -18.22
parlays: 12-26, +0.839
(straight wagers used in parlays for comparison: -9.3)
6/16 bookmaker
straight:
951 MIN +153
953 COL +158
958 SF -112
959 ATL +146
966 PIT -145
967 NYY -113
971 WAS +124
parlays:
953 COL +153 and over 8.5, -110…. 1 to win 3.925
966 PIT -145 and under 7, -110…. 1 to win 2.226
967 NYY -113 and over 7.5, even… 1 to win 2.77
971 WAS +124 and over 7.5, even… 1 to win 3.48
good luck all