WHAT DONNY?
"I just took a look at your lines again. I can pretty much guarantee you that the orlando/miami total you had set at 221.5 is going to be wrong by a good margin. The highest i see they open this total at is 216 and I don't see this happening. And this line will only drop. The line for this game is going to open a lot closer to 212.5 than 221.5."
WHAT DONNY?
" You sure im that off with the Pistons line? I had a strong hunch you were going to say that. That was the one game i'm sure you were going to say something about. That game will close to -3.5 even if it opens at -5.5 or 6."
I hope the NBA lines taught you a thing or two Donny
and I am still waiting to get your answer on the 1st half question
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Opinions and lines like yours are how the books eat at Andiamos everyday
am not sure they do , am going on what ive been told , maybe am being lied to , hope i wasnt , crunch the numbers brothers , thats why your man lol ...love reading the stuff
You cracked one of his 'systems' with current data. This guy(PMJ) is a lazy hustler trying to sell useless 5-year old dating mined info using an 'R' function. Below is his lame response:
"2007/08 to 2015/16 seasons. Got the data in Excel format off a website several years ago. This site doesn't seem to exist anymore, unfortunately. I don't own the data on the most recent seasons. Obtained the numbers above from programing in R."
Note to poster tinfw17.......Proceed with caution. This Canuck ain't gonna get you there.
Let see, this was a 2-3 game sample. If we do an entire full card schedule daily, my lines would be better than yours. Im very shocked the magic/heat line opened that high.
Also, im not a modeler of lines. But i figure i could surely predict lines better than someone with a model with wrong inputs. I also don't cap games by modeling.
yes this was a 2 game sample and the sample showed you have zero clue about creating a fair NBA line.
there is nothing to compete for, you dont know how to create a fair line and you cant pick games without knowing what a fair line is.
you are willing to say this and that but you are not willing to call a duck a duck, you know you are outclassed with creating a fair line and you should stop well you are behind and just admit it.
you have no clue how a 1st half line has any impact and that is why you keep dodging the question.
You are the one who keep saying you don't have a clue. You are the one that gets banned on multiple forums. You ask stupid questions where many ppl who are not that clever could answer them. Someone give you answer, you argue with them like a moron.
Outclassed by someone that has a model which probably inputs incorrect information?
Im the person who called you out on that statement. If i didn't know what i was talking about, why did i say lets have others chime in and not 1 person will agree with you. So far 2 ppl posted about it and both agree it does affect the 2nd half line. I mean common sense would tell you it has. Go have 10 more ppl post on the thread about this topic and not 1 person will agree with you.
You're an American who is in the US and bet on US books and fairlay.
I'm an American that relocated a while back and have access to pinnacle, skrill/neteller and other non-us books. I could only imagine you trying to relocate or get a residence outside the US to have access to those books... you would probably ask 25 questions and still ask why you need to do so and so.
I honestly don't think i seen a more annoying poster than you on any forum. You get banned, keep asking questions when people give you answers and keep asking but why like with that closing line question from a while back.
you have been here posting and reading and have not even thanked 1 person, what the heck is wrong with you, why are you here if you have not even read one thing that is worth thanking someone for?
Why did you keep getting banned in many forums? What do you even do where you have so much time to post here?
I been on many other forums and you have got to be one of the most annoying ever. Im shocked sbr didn't ban you sooner with your posts of asking questions and then getting answers and asking but why.
the numbers do. I have calculated the past few days games and using this created what i thought the line would be and then seen what the actual line was and I am very very close 99% of the time if not 100%
who would you recommend I talk to and if its a linemaker they are like anyone else they are not super open to sharing their models
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I will do hundreds of past games, I am right now scraping oddsportal 2nd half lines and score at half and pregame spread and should have some big numbers to match up
I think when you crunch the numbers you wont get anywhere close to 99% or 100% parity with the book lines, but you will get a very high % nonetheless. Which raises the question: if you and the books are, for the most part, arriving at the same lines (most of the time), why does that have to be because the books are using the same method? Perhaps you have simply stumbled upon a new and different method for arriving at viable lines, and because the method works well, the results are the same as the results obtained by the books, even though they are actually using completely different methods to obtain their similar lines?
yes this is true. I guess my question is how do so many people bet 2nd half and live lines if they dont generate a fair number
I am very interested in live betting and 2nd half but of course I believe you need to make sure you are generating a fair number to have any success doing it.
its the same as pregame if I can model numbers very close to the closing number in most cases, I can use this to find spots that hold value at a high %
looking at games and stats and "picking winners", I dont believe that is a successful method to win long term.
now say I can model 2nd half lines at a very high rate and I know my #s are solid, it would give me confidence in bets I make.
Now the issue is how do you know when this edge is gone? how do you determine your expected value?
I think the Jazz game is a perfect example, I would guess the big HT lead, probably made bettors think they were going to just finish off the Knicks in the 2nd half and as you can see that was not the case. The historic data shows that
the historic data shows a 8pt pregame favorite that leads at half by 10 actually loses the 2nd half by .5 points
and that is exactly what happened they lost it by 2. I am super guessing but I imagine the books cleaned up on that
I think the Jazz game is a perfect example, I would guess the big HT lead, probably made bettors think they were going to just finish off the Knicks in the 2nd half and as you can see that was not the case. The historic data shows that
the historic data shows a 8pt pregame favorite that leads at half by 10 actually loses the 2nd half by .5 points
and that is exactly what happened they lost it by 2. I am super guessing but I imagine the books cleaned up on that
Another thought came to mind as the Clippers/Rockets game wen into halftime: Ive never seen a 2nd half spread that differed significantly from the live spread just previous to the end of the half...
Comments
"I just took a look at your lines again. I can pretty much guarantee you that the orlando/miami total you had set at 221.5 is going to be wrong by a good margin. The highest i see they open this total at is 216 and I don't see this happening. And this line will only drop. The line for this game is going to open a lot closer to 212.5 than 221.5."
WHAT DONNY?
"
You sure im that off with the Pistons line? I had a strong hunch you were going to say that. That was the one game i'm sure you were going to say something about. That game will close to -3.5 even if it opens at -5.5 or 6."
I hope the NBA lines taught you a thing or two Donny
and I am still waiting to get your answer on the 1st half question
- - - Updated - - -
Opinions and lines like yours are how the books eat at Andiamos everyday
You cracked one of his 'systems' with current data. This guy(PMJ) is a lazy hustler trying to sell useless 5-year old dating mined info using an 'R' function. Below is his lame response:
"2007/08 to 2015/16 seasons. Got the data in Excel format off a website several years ago. This site doesn't seem to exist anymore, unfortunately. I don't own the data on the most recent seasons. Obtained the numbers above from programing in R."
Note to poster tinfw17.......Proceed with caution. This Canuck ain't gonna get you there.
Also, im not a modeler of lines. But i figure i could surely predict lines better than someone with a model with wrong inputs. I also don't cap games by modeling.
there is nothing to compete for, you dont know how to create a fair line and you cant pick games without knowing what a fair line is.
you are willing to say this and that but you are not willing to call a duck a duck, you know you are outclassed with creating a fair line and you should stop well you are behind and just admit it.
you have no clue how a 1st half line has any impact and that is why you keep dodging the question.
quit brother, the facts are on the table
Outclassed by someone that has a model which probably inputs incorrect information?
Im the person who called you out on that statement. If i didn't know what i was talking about, why did i say lets have others chime in and not 1 person will agree with you. So far 2 ppl posted about it and both agree it does affect the 2nd half line. I mean common sense would tell you it has. Go have 10 more ppl post on the thread about this topic and not 1 person will agree with you.
You're an American who is in the US and bet on US books and fairlay.
I'm an American that relocated a while back and have access to pinnacle, skrill/neteller and other non-us books. I could only imagine you trying to relocate or get a residence outside the US to have access to those books... you would probably ask 25 questions and still ask why you need to do so and so.
you think those lines I gave you are from a faulty model, really?
come on dude, you got your ass kicked, own it.
you have no clue about how the 1st half has anything to do with the 2nd half line and because you are scared of that question keep ranting nonsense.
Anyone with half a brain would stop arguing with you and move on, I unfortunately do not have even half a brain.
you're up!
I help people, share insights, give people spreadsheets, give people formulas, and more.
I have 247 thanks in 223 posts you have 4 in 144, do the math on that I am whipping your ass in that too.
please repeat after me, danshan can handicap some hoops!
I been on many other forums and you have got to be one of the most annoying ever. Im shocked sbr didn't ban you sooner with your posts of asking questions and then getting answers and asking but why.
I think when you crunch the numbers you wont get anywhere close to 99% or 100% parity with the book lines, but you will get a very high % nonetheless. Which raises the question: if you and the books are, for the most part, arriving at the same lines (most of the time), why does that have to be because the books are using the same method? Perhaps you have simply stumbled upon a new and different method for arriving at viable lines, and because the method works well, the results are the same as the results obtained by the books, even though they are actually using completely different methods to obtain their similar lines?
I am very interested in live betting and 2nd half but of course I believe you need to make sure you are generating a fair number to have any success doing it.
its the same as pregame if I can model numbers very close to the closing number in most cases, I can use this to find spots that hold value at a high %
looking at games and stats and "picking winners", I dont believe that is a successful method to win long term.
now say I can model 2nd half lines at a very high rate and I know my #s are solid, it would give me confidence in bets I make.
Now the issue is how do you know when this edge is gone? how do you determine your expected value?
those 2 things make me super hesitant
the historic data shows a 8pt pregame favorite that leads at half by 10 actually loses the 2nd half by .5 points
and that is exactly what happened they lost it by 2. I am super guessing but I imagine the books cleaned up on that
Another thought came to mind as the Clippers/Rockets game wen into halftime: Ive never seen a 2nd half spread that differed significantly from the live spread just previous to the end of the half...
I am working on a per second algo including current possession but I am not even close yet to having something good
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really what I am trying to do is create something that works on every timeout