It has a big effect on the halftime line, the books don't want to get beat though ,period. They can really get beat at halftime, don't forget they know exactly how much is riding on every game , they manipulate the lines to help with there risk.
It has a big effect on the halftime line, the books don't want to get beat though ,period. They can really get beat at halftime, don't forget they know exactly how much is riding on every game , they manipulate the lines to help with there risk.
I dont understand how the 1st half line has anything to do with the 2nd half line, can you explain so I understand how or why it has an effect?
Well look at that. One of the people who actually reply back to your posts gave you the answer right there. Also look what he said... it has a huge effect on the 2nd half line. I didn't even needed to say that because I could not believe when you said it has zero effect.
The fact you thought the 1st half line had no effect on the 2nd half line has got to be one of the dumbest things i heard of or you were trolling. Now i honestly don't think you are trolling. I honestly think you have zero clue about what you are doing. Which also means any modeling you do is completely wrong.
Its common sense why the 1st half line affects the 2nd half line. If you can't even figure that out, you honestly think what you are doing with your modeling is even close to correct? I was right all along... you have zero idea what you are doing. Don't talk about your model because its wrong. Also do you want me to explain to you why the 1st half line affects the 2nd half line? I could but if i do you know what you going to do? You will keep either say but why or something else. You honestly don't think what the other guy here said is true? This is common sense. You are a troll or really clueless. Do not even put any of your model numbers up because you are pouring out completely wrong information.
You know what you honestly remind me of? Like a mad scientist that is going to create some complex modeling system. You have some other scientist ppl who tell you what you are doing is wrong or they tell you why so and so and you keep arguing with all the scientists.
Nobody should ever take you seriously. Now other posters who read this thread will know you are a big troll or haze zero clue. No wonder you got banned in other forums.
If you don't know the answer to that with common sense, do not ever bother to post on this forum ever again. You seriously can't figure out a reason why? Don't you work with your complex models? Then how can someone like that not figure something as simple as this.
I'm not going to tell your why because you are either trolling or you are a complete moron. I tell you reason why you going to argue why or i'm wrong when others here already told you you are wrong. Now those guys can clearly see you are either a huge moron or a big troll.
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After some of the ppl who read this thread and those who back then replied back to you see all these responses from you, they will no longer support you or even bother interacting with you on the forum anymore. You are either a huge troll or a complete moron.
So let see, i said you got to be joking that you didn't think the 1st half line affects the 2nd half line. Then another poster here tells you it has a huge effect. Let see if anyone here who replies to this thread will say it has no effect on the 2nd half line. You can have 10 other posters here reply to it and not 1 of them will say it has no effect. What does that say?
Guys, don't bother viewing his threads or replying back to his threads. He is a massive troll or moron. There is a good reason he got banned in multiple forums and gotten banned on this forum already.
If anyone thinks he is using models correctly to predict lines, then i got a mansion to sell you.
donny , am not taking sides , trust me on this. I know people who don't bet full games , they sit and wait for halftime and then grind the fuck out of them....you want value ? you can find it at halftime.
I think losing is just another activity that a team gets better at as they get more experienced with it. Last night the Heat were up 15 with about 5 minutes left in the game. The Bucks knew that game was out of reach, their primary goal of winning was impossible. This is a situation that the Bulls or the Hawks or the Warriors have already faced dozens of time this season. They know the drill by heart: keep playing as well as you can until the final buzzer sounds and try to use the remaining minutes to improve the teams play somehow.
But the Bucks didnt get to where they were in that game last night because they were badly in need of improvement. They got there because of some combination of mental/physical fatigue and injuries (Middletons neck). Even the simple, almost -always effective solution of trying harder and putting in more effort and energy was blowing up in their faces.
The live line at that point was Heat -12. The Bucks wound up losing by 16. Even the lowly Warriors probably would have brought Miamis lead down into single digits.
Just like a good airplane pilot should always keep half an eye our for safe places to land in an emergency, so should live bettors keep an eye out for that time when a good team runs out of hope for winning the game...
donny , am not taking sides , trust me on this. I know people who don't bet full games , they sit and wait for halftime and then grind the fuck out of them....you want value ? you can find it at halftime.
Jets. I meant you are one of the few ppl who respond to him. But are you shocked he made that statement? Are you surprised someone like him who has a so called model... could not understand why the 1st half line affects the 2nd half line?
Well the sit and wait and grind halftime lines... i get what you mean by that. But i was talking about how in the world he had no idea 1st half line affect 2nd half lines.
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You seriously can't think of one single reason why the 1st half line affects the 2nd half line?
You don't think i know the reason? Im the person who called you out on being a moron or troll for saying the 1st half line has zero effect on the 2nd half line.
I am completely convinced now you are a troll and not that stupid. There is no way you cannot think of a possible reason why the 1st half line matters. How about you come up with like a few reasons and number them and i will tell you which one it is or you are close with your idea.
Also you said you are good with projecting nba lines right? When you posted those numbers a while back, are those opening lines you project it will open or closing lines? Or are they your lines so whatever the opener is... and its far from your number... you bet? Because if its what you predict the opening line would be, I would 100% project nba opening sides/totals better than you and your so called model which probably has mistakes and wrong inputs all over it. But I don't even want to bother since im sure others now are convinced you are the biggest troll or just plain clueless. Nothing wrong with being clueless... but when you question ppl here and argue with ppl over the most trivial statements, people are going to ignore you.
you dont need to write paragraphs and duck and dodge and hide under the bed with all those comments just tell me why the 1st half line matters to the 2nd half line, please.
tell you what right this minute I am going to email my predicted closing lines to Jets and as soon as you post yours, he will post mine up and we shall see who can predict or model the NBA better.
email sent to Jets he has my lines and he will post them as soon as you post yours, sides and totals
You seriously can't think of a few reasons why 1st half line affects 2nd half? Just come up with a few and i will tell you which one it is. Others will now completely ignore you after you said it has zero effect.
I never really considered the first half line before as a factor in the second half line, but now that it has been offered up, it makes a little sense to me. My understanding is that a few years back the first half line was always just one half of the full game line, until gamblers like that famous Greek guy with the long name that starts with V exploited the heck out of that vulnerabilty. Nowadays, seeking to elude back-door covers, I some times see first half lines that are a couple points more than one half of the full game line.
That would imply that, if a second half line were to be offered before the game actually started, the second half line would be one or 2 points less than one half of the full game line. So because of that, it does make sense to me that the first half line might have some bearing on the making of the second half line...
at half time or live, I believe the 1st half line has zero effect and if it does please tell me why, anyone but especially Donny since he seems to think its common knowledge and setting NBA lines is a piece of cake. He really bit off more than he can chew with this 1st half comment and challenging me on NBA modeling and lines come on. I know who my money would be on in that conversation
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Rook I have ran it a zillion times and it seems the most obvious scenario for setting 2nd half and live lines
is they take the pregame line and use the current score, time left and injuries and ejections, 1st half pre game line is irrelevant
Comments
To everyone else, do you agree/disagree with his statement that the 1st half line means nothing.
But once someone does, let see what they say. Again your statement is the 1st half line has no effect on the 2nd half line.
I think it was true maybe a few years ago they want to manage risk on the game but now they are all competing for the same eyes and dollars
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I dont understand how the 1st half line has anything to do with the 2nd half line, can you explain so I understand how or why it has an effect?
pregame spread, current score and time left and of course any injuries or ejections
current book liability on the game is irrelevant
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I dont understand how the 1st half line has anything to do with the 2nd half line, can you explain so I understand how or why it has an effect?
The fact you thought the 1st half line had no effect on the 2nd half line has got to be one of the dumbest things i heard of or you were trolling. Now i honestly don't think you are trolling. I honestly think you have zero clue about what you are doing. Which also means any modeling you do is completely wrong.
Its common sense why the 1st half line affects the 2nd half line. If you can't even figure that out, you honestly think what you are doing with your modeling is even close to correct? I was right all along... you have zero idea what you are doing. Don't talk about your model because its wrong. Also do you want me to explain to you why the 1st half line affects the 2nd half line? I could but if i do you know what you going to do? You will keep either say but why or something else. You honestly don't think what the other guy here said is true? This is common sense. You are a troll or really clueless. Do not even put any of your model numbers up because you are pouring out completely wrong information.
You know what you honestly remind me of? Like a mad scientist that is going to create some complex modeling system. You have some other scientist ppl who tell you what you are doing is wrong or they tell you why so and so and you keep arguing with all the scientists.
Nobody should ever take you seriously. Now other posters who read this thread will know you are a big troll or haze zero clue. No wonder you got banned in other forums.
I'm not going to tell your why because you are either trolling or you are a complete moron. I tell you reason why you going to argue why or i'm wrong when others here already told you you are wrong. Now those guys can clearly see you are either a huge moron or a big troll.
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After some of the ppl who read this thread and those who back then replied back to you see all these responses from you, they will no longer support you or even bother interacting with you on the forum anymore. You are either a huge troll or a complete moron.
Guys, don't bother viewing his threads or replying back to his threads. He is a massive troll or moron. There is a good reason he got banned in multiple forums and gotten banned on this forum already.
If anyone thinks he is using models correctly to predict lines, then i got a mansion to sell you.
But the Bucks didnt get to where they were in that game last night because they were badly in need of improvement. They got there because of some combination of mental/physical fatigue and injuries (Middletons neck). Even the simple, almost -always effective solution of trying harder and putting in more effort and energy was blowing up in their faces.
The live line at that point was Heat -12. The Bucks wound up losing by 16. Even the lowly Warriors probably would have brought Miamis lead down into single digits.
Just like a good airplane pilot should always keep half an eye our for safe places to land in an emergency, so should live bettors keep an eye out for that time when a good team runs out of hope for winning the game...
Jets. I meant you are one of the few ppl who respond to him. But are you shocked he made that statement? Are you surprised someone like him who has a so called model... could not understand why the 1st half line affects the 2nd half line?
Well the sit and wait and grind halftime lines... i get what you mean by that. But i was talking about how in the world he had no idea 1st half line affect 2nd half lines.
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You seriously can't think of one single reason why the 1st half line affects the 2nd half line?
You don't think i know the reason? Im the person who called you out on being a moron or troll for saying the 1st half line has zero effect on the 2nd half line.
You are a troll or a moron.
same question for Jets or anyone else for that matter
Also you said you are good with projecting nba lines right? When you posted those numbers a while back, are those opening lines you project it will open or closing lines? Or are they your lines so whatever the opener is... and its far from your number... you bet? Because if its what you predict the opening line would be, I would 100% project nba opening sides/totals better than you and your so called model which probably has mistakes and wrong inputs all over it. But I don't even want to bother since im sure others now are convinced you are the biggest troll or just plain clueless. Nothing wrong with being clueless... but when you question ppl here and argue with ppl over the most trivial statements, people are going to ignore you.
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03/04
6:05p 517
518 Boston
Cleveland
03/04
6:05p 519
520 Oklahoma City
Detroit
03/04
6:35p 521
522 Orlando
Miami
tell you what right this minute I am going to email my predicted closing lines to Jets and as soon as you post yours, he will post mine up and we shall see who can predict or model the NBA better.
email sent to Jets he has my lines and he will post them as soon as you post yours, sides and totals
That would imply that, if a second half line were to be offered before the game actually started, the second half line would be one or 2 points less than one half of the full game line. So because of that, it does make sense to me that the first half line might have some bearing on the making of the second half line...
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Rook I have ran it a zillion times and it seems the most obvious scenario for setting 2nd half and live lines
is they take the pregame line and use the current score, time left and injuries and ejections, 1st half pre game line is irrelevant