Betting Talk

DanShan is A Troll With Proof

donny2donny2 Senior Member
edited March 2020 in Sports Betting
Read this on another forum where he posted his opinion to someone else's discussion on live betting.



http://forum.thegamblingforum.com/index.php?/topic/57923-i-see-so-many-mistakes-in-live-betting/page-1



Read his posts from the entire thread and don't argue with me he isn't a troll. One guy has a discussion him about live lines and look at his arguments about live betting and what the line live 2nd half line should be. Not one person here on this forum that defended him can defend him now after reading his posts in that thread. Guy doesn't even have basic common sense about a live line or 2nd half spread and talks about his model like anyone with a clue knows he just talking stupid nonsense.
«134

Comments

  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    I am curious what parts of that thread make you think that I am a troll and I have openly admitted in many threads and tweets how I am confused about a second half and live line when the score has some big margins but with that said I think I did get a real good grip on how its done in the NBA.

    I wrote this and have checked it over the past few days and this is very accurate


    " I am saying by pulling NBA game data


    that a team that is pregame an 8 pt favorite and leads by 20 definitively takes their foot off the gas

    and if they are trailing by 20 they step on it full blast

    I would change my guess now

    say a team is an -8 pregame fave

    trailing by 20 at half line should be 2nd half line -9 or live spread +11
    ahead by 20 at half 2nd half should be -1 or live spread -21"

    - - - Updated - - -

    but its good to hear from you, Donny thanks for writing. Have you checked out my app?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    and actually it is a really interesting discussion

    would be nice to get some smart people from here on it

    an NBA team pregame is -6
    at half they trail by 6

    what should the 2nd half and live line be

    my guess from spending some time on it is
    I say 2nd half is -6.5
    live line is -1

    anyone else have any thoughts or guesses, I am assuming no ejections or injuries during the game
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    now go the other way
    pregame -6
    lead by 6 at HT

    2nd half line -3
    live line -8.5
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    danshan wrote: »

    an NBA team pregame is -6
    at half they trail by 6

    what should the 2nd half and live line be

    Where they playing?

    Home -7 or 7.5
    Away -5 or 6.5
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    very good question, let me see if it matters

    it does not seem to make a difference if they are home or away but I could see how that could slightly influence the live and 2nd half spread

    - - - Updated - - -

    see before I was just simplifying it

    like if they are 6 pt faves for the game and trail by 6 they should lose by 3

    but that is definitely not the case, the way they play the 2nd half is strongly dictated how the score was in the 1st half
  • donny2donny2 Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    Someone said what should be the spread if a team is -10 full game and down 10 at the half. Someone said that team down 10 points should probably be laying 7.5 to 9 points in the 2nd half which sounds about right. You do know that is around the line the books will open 2nd half usually right?


    You on the other hand said the spread should be -5 2nd half or something ridiculous to that effect. No book would ever open 2nd half line of that favorite -5 2nd half and make them +5 for the full game.


    You are either trolling or a complete moron. If the line should be -5 when its almost always -7 to -9, why don't you bet the underdog everytime getting 8 points 2nd half and have them +2 for full game then.


    Nobody is looking at your model or whatever you have. Whatever you have probably is done incorrectly and has wrong inputs.


    The fact you argue the line should be -5 2nd half makes you sound like a moron. Why don't you tell sportsbooks, the line should be -5 and not like -8.


    Nobody in this forum will agree with you on this.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    I would refer you to post #6 above
  • donny2donny2 Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    You keep saying you are confused about so and so things and don't have a clue. If you don't have a clue, how about stop telling us your reasoning for something since its obviously wrong? You keep saying you don't know anything... yet someone like you can do a complex model with lines? You have zero clue what you are doing. The fact you think a team 10 point favorite pregame down 10 points at the half should be -5 2nd half or +5 live line is just so beyond bad. Do you know how clueless you have to be to make a stupid statement like that?


    If you make an obvious error like this on taking a guess what the 2nd half line should be, imagine how bad your model is when you talk about you coming up with so and so lines. Everyone here should take a look at your posts in that thread and see how either you are really clueless... which i doubt since you can't be this stupid... or trolling everyone.. which is what i assume all along.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    danshan wrote: »
    very good question, let me see if it matters


    see before I was just simplifying it

    like if they are 6 pt faves for the game and trail by 6 they should lose by 3

    but that is definitely not the case, the way they play the 2nd half is strongly dictated how the score was in the 1st half

    maybe if you read this again, you will understand my logic on this until I actually ran the numbers and looked

    a team that is a pregame favorite will definitely step on the gas if they are way down but if they are way up they will definitely coast
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    I just thought it was odd

    a big fave should win each half by say 5 pregame but if they get far behind they will win the 2nd half by 10 or even more on average
    and if they are way ahead they will maybe not even win the 2nd half now
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    fwiw , i have to see the boxscore before i would even think about a 2nd half play.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    box score, what do you want to see in the box score Jets?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    the thing that kinda shook me was
    if someone anyone not just my model Donny and they get -10 for the game and the team has half a game left it just seemed logical they should win the 2nd half by +- 5, right

    but with some work and research that is 1000% not the case

    so in order to actual try and place live bets, I think we need a Number we expect to happen and if the book is offering something off that number we need to see why and if we dont see a reason why maybe we have a play there.

    i think what most people do is they say I watched the 1st half and team A was badass or team B had a few unlucky turnovers but looked good but they are not giving themselves a concrete number and as everyone knows and I have said a few times if you dont create a "fair" line on the bet, how can you bet it?
  • donny2donny2 Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    So if a team is down by 10 at half and -10 pregame, what should the line be for 2nd half then? Do you agree it should be -7 to -9 or around that? You kept saying that team down should win the 2nd half by 5. You think oddsmakers will ever do that and put a -5 second half? If they did, everyone would bet on the team -5 as that would never be the default 2nd half line.


    If a team is down 10 points at half and 10 point favorite, it should be like -7.5 to 9.5 or at the most -10 for 2nd half. I mean i could see it being -6.5 but anything less will rarely happen.


    Teams that are down 10 at the half while laying 10 points pregame, what do you think the percentage is that team wins the game straight up? You say they should logically win 2nd half by -5. Well obviously they are going to win the 2nd half by -5 at least 50 percent of the time. You don't even need to check scores and stats and could say they will cover -5 by 2nd half. If you were to bet 100 times when a team -10 fav is down 10 at half and -5 2nd half, at least 52.4% minimum they cover -5.

    - - - Updated - - -

    If you don't create a fair line how can you bet it? And how are you creating lines? Your model? Whatever you input into it is probably wrong. I remember you got in an argument with someone here about a very obvious thing that even i could answer and i bet 1/2 an avg bettor could probably answer. I don't remember what it was about but you asked a very foolish question or omitted something that was so obvious, even some ppl on this forum who talk with you in your threads had to say... you cannot do this and that etc and you said but why or why should it matter when its so obvious to anyone.


    Your model is probably some stuff you put in where you shouldn't put in. You honestly are like those ppl who are like trying to be a scientist or something but fail miserably. There is no way you are a profitable bettor with your so called model. The worst part is i can probably take a good rough line estimate of what a line should open better than you.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    so you say -6 or up to -10

    if pregame was -10 and now trail by 10 at the half

    why would it be such a big range?

    remember we are assuming no injuries or ejections since start
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    i want to see how they are shooting and how it relates to their past shooting habits , i want to see how they are getting beat , i want to see the coaching , and do they have a history of adjusting for all the shit that happened in the first half ...
    run your numbers for .......wait are we talking about nba or college hoops ....doesnt matter, i dont have any subsets for nba but do have a few for college hoops.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    if -10 and up 10 they win 2nd half by 4

    if -10 and down 10 they win 2nd half by 10

    so if they have a lead they take a hair off the gas
    and if they are trailing they kick it into high gear and win the 2nd half by 10
  • donny2donny2 Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    If a team is favorite 10 points pregame and down by 10 at half, they should be 7.5-9.5 favorites. I say it could be as low as 6 but that would be if some situation of a player out etc. But assuming no player out... it should be -7.5 to 10.5 at the highest.


    Have you ever even looked at 2nd half lines when a team down 10 is 10 pt favs pregame? It almost always -7.5 to -9.5 and median is like -8.5 to -9.


    I have no idea what you mean with your last post. Of course if a team is -10 and up 10 at the half, they will win the 2nd half on average by a few points. So you say if they are down 10 they win 2nd half by 10, so basically that team laying 7.5-9.5 points is correct then right? Oddsmakers are not making mistakes like that. If a team is -6 full game and up 6 at the half, what you think 2nd half spread would be? It would be around-2 to -2.5.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    -6 up 6 at halftime they win the 2nd half by 2.4

    - - - Updated - - -
    jets96 wrote: »
    i want to see how they are shooting and how it relates to their past shooting habits , i want to see how they are getting beat , i want to see the coaching , and do they have a history of adjusting for all the shit that happened in the first half ...
    run your numbers for .......wait are we talking about nba or college hoops ....doesnt matter, i dont have any subsets for nba but do have a few for college hoops.

    do you think shooting % will regress in the course of the 2nd half ?
    say they avg 50% and they shoot 22% horrible 1st half will they more than likely shoot 70 in 2nd to avg 50?
    cause I think they will shoot a hair higher than 50% but I dont think the regression is instant
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    am telling you that it depends on how teams adjust ,some coaches have no clue ,some coaches can overcome bad shooting 1st halfs.
    I think things tend to balance out . I bet 2nd halfs and have done very well because i chart certain coaching tendencies , some coaches know they cant come back and will do certain things, even i know it and will take the other side. Do your homework will find some really lights out bets.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    duke 12 pt fave
    up 2 at half
    I say they should be 2nd half -7
    live line -9

    what is it ?

    - - - Updated - - -

    its about 8.5 I could only find it on oddsportal live

    - - - Updated - - -

    live is -8.5
    2nd half is -6.5

    - - - Updated - - -

    Blazers Vs Magic

    Pregame Magic -6.5
    trailing by 11

    my guess
    2nd half Magic -7
    live line +4

    - - - Updated - - -

    looks like
    2nd half -7
    live line +4.5
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    Just because danshan does not have common sense does not mean he is troll.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    I say troll is a harsh word maybe garden gnome is better
  • donny2donny2 Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    If he has no common sense, why do any of you even pay attention to his posts especially when he talks about his model? The guy clearly has a faulty model where he inputs incorrect information. If anyone tails him, i don't even know what to say. When someone says i know nothing, you just don't even bother reading his thread.


    Houston -10 full game and down by 10 at half. 2nd half line -11.5. In situations like this, i'm not surprised it could go as high as 11.5. But if it was say 2 other teams, good chance it would be -9 or -8.5. Its not really hard to guess what a 2nd half line should be when you compare it to the full game line and the 1st half line etc.


    The fact that he a while back posted all his projected lines... anyone with a clue could do that without a model. He is basically a troll. He ask questions that are easily answerable by most people with common sense. I believe he got banned in sbr forum or another forum because of this.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    1st I dont know why you care if anyone pays attention to me and for your information. I dont think there is literally 1 member here who does pay attention to anything I say. I am a junior member at best here

    I think its not hard to guess but I think in order for me to bet on a game I want to establish at minimum what I consider a fair number.

    I am very good at basketball and my projected lines are not posted anymore because no one cared to see them or really was interested, referring back to point 1.

    I got banned in SBR forum for betting with a guy via DM. I got banned from here for asking too many questions and mainly not staying out of other peoples threads.

    I sometimes wonder how easy my questions are and why nobody answers them maybe again refer back to point 1.

    I wonder why you are so concerned with me. I am not posting here often, do not post picks and basically come in and ask a question or two and chat a bit. I am not a post all the time member here anymore at all.

    anyway the 2nd half lines are interesting to me and I want to dig deeper and start to create timeout lines as well.

    give my app a try you might enjoy it or at least can make fun of it and maybe I can use that feedback to improve it.

    have a good day and if you want to continue the conversation about the live lines, I am excited and happy to do it. I dont think it is a simple as you say, just peek at the pregame line and 1st half line, honestly I dont even understand what you meant there, maybe you can elaborate.
  • donny2donny2 Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    You are not good at anything. I could project lines better than you in the major sports judging from looking at your projected lines a while back.


    Why would you even bet with someone via DM? You got banned here because you ask questions... ppl answer your questions and you keep questioning them why. Its like you give them answer why earth is round and you keep asking why over and over.


    Maybe ppl don't answer your easy questions because either... the questions are way too novice to be asking... they give you answer and you keep asking but why and keep argueing like you did with the opening/closing line thing last time... or they think you are trolling.


    2nd half lines are very obvious to most ppl with a basic understanding. You should never be off more than at most 2 points in the spread when taking a guess at what the 2nd half line should be. Totals a bit different but you shouldn't be that far off there as well.


    You created an app? Oh man another thing you probably did wrong.


    Look at your last paragraph. If you can't look at a pregame line and 1st half line and then look at the halftime score and can take a good guess what the 2nd half line should open for the spread, you are clueless. It doesn't take a genius to figure out what the spread should be in most games and you should not be off more than 2 points almost ever. I'm not elaborating anything. You are basically trolling now. The fact you say that means either you are trolling. No one who has a complex model would ask a stupid basic question like you just did now. Its obvious what i mean when i say look at full game line and 1st half line and then halftime score... its not hard to guess what halftime line should be. The only times when you probably would be off in a 2nd half line by more than 2 points is say favorite is -6 and they are up like 35 points or more at the half.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    if you are off 2 points you will get destroyed, you have to be way closer than 2 pts to have any shot.

    my goal is to be closer to .5 pt off but I am surely not there yet. I will keep working on it


    what would the 1st half line have to do with the 2nd half spread?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    Also Donny one question

    what the heck about that thread made you think I was a troll and what the heck was the proof?
  • donny2donny2 Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    Of course if you are off 2 points in 2nd half lines, you will get destroyed. You are stating the obvious. I meant if you had to guess 2nd half lines at halftime, you shouldn't ever be off 2 points or more ever usually. You should be right within 1 point at the most max with what the oddsmakers open.


    What would the 1st half line have to do with the 2nd half spread?


    Are you serious or are you trolling now? You don't think it has anything to do with the 2nd half spread? Simple yes or no and then you can give an explanation if you like.


    And after you reply to that, im sure anyone that anyone that speak with you on this forum will be in complete disbelief with your response to this question.


    You don't think 1st half line has anything to do with 2nd half lines at all?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    1st half line means nothing

    the pregame spread, the current score, time left, injuries and ejections during the game
Sign In or Register to comment.