When you used to post nba lines, i recalled certain games, you posted numbers that were beyond off. It was where common sense would say that number you put was off.
I don't think you know what you are doing. That is what i think. If you are making errors in mlb, it does not surprise me if you make same mistakes in every other sport.
Also, keep a record of your plays with win loss and plus or minus units. You say you don't care about that. That is what people will be looking at.
I am here trying to learn and get feedback, wins and losses are not things I am interested in getting feedback on. I am interested in what people think of my projected lines, bet at lines and other opinions or things I share
When you used to post nba lines, i recalled certain games, you posted numbers that were beyond off. It was where common sense would say that number you put was off.
I don't think you know what you are doing. That is what i think. If you are making errors in mlb, it does not surprise me if you make same mistakes in every other sport.
Also, keep a record of your plays with win loss and plus or minus units. You say you don't care about that. That is what people will be looking at.
just for you I will fine tune my MLB and post some projected lines for a few days before lines come out so I can see how I actually do!
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Thank you though Donny, I just caught an error I had of a scrape it was scraping pitchers 2018 NPERA and not 2019, thanks for the criticism it made me check closer and that helped me thank you
here you go dan just bet the red sox with a few of my outs....
one model says they should be -149
my lineups model says they should be -150
I know how much i should be , do you ?
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BET , not be lol
I know exactly how much to bet on MLB and that bet amount is 0!
I am not in good shape on that game I got the Indians as favorites in that game, so whats that tell you, yeah I am way off on that one.
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I think I am getting closer on the model. I will keep working on it, Donny got me going and now I am on a MLB mission, I usually just pass up the MLB cause I never have done well with it and I dont know if the changes I am making will help but I am gonna give it hell.
can someone please explain the Monty Hall problem to me?
you have 3 closed doors
behind 1 door is a car
the other two have nothing
you choose 1 door they don't open it but they open one of the empty doors, now they ask if you want to switch doors, do you do it?
why do you now have a 66.6% chance of winning if and only if you switch doors, how is it not 50-50 now that you have 2 doors left and only 1 has a car?
can someone please explain the Monty Hall problem to me?
you have 3 closed doors
behind 1 door is a car
the other two have nothing
you choose 1 door they don't open it but they open one of the empty doors, now they ask if you want to switch doors, do you do it?
why do you now have a 66.6% chance of winning if and only if you switch doors, how is it not 50-50 now that you have 2 doors left and only 1 has a car?
I will not go into the entire reasoning to change the door originally picked, but if you google Monty Hall Problem there are several explanations on line that will answer your question. This question came to the forefront back in 1990, when Marilyn Vos Savant answered the question in the Parade Sunday paper supplement. It does seem counterintuitive to think that changing your original door pick, after 1 door was eliminated, would give you a 66.67% chance of winning instead of a 50% chance, but it has been proven by computer simulation to be true.
yes it seems crazy if 2 doors are left you should be 50-50 but the logic makes sense that if you switch you maintain a 66% chance because you essentially have chosen 2 doors that gives you a 66% chance and you can eliminate one door so you maintain that 66% chance, very cool. still does not really make sense
can someone please explain the Monty Hall problem to me?
you have 3 closed doors
behind 1 door is a car
the other two have nothing
you choose 1 door they don't open it but they open one of the empty doors, now they ask if you want to switch doors, do you do it?
why do you now have a 66.6% chance of winning if and only if you switch doors, how is it not 50-50 now that you have 2 doors left and only 1 has a car?
finally something i can help with.
i had trouble with this one, too. how i was able to understand it is this:
lets say instead of 3 doors, you have 100 doors. you select door 1 and they open 2-99 and they are all empty. it seems much more likely that the other door, door 100, is the one that holds the car given youve eliminated 98 possibilities vs. when you selected your door and there were 100 possibilities. obviously there is an absolute truth that door X holds the car behind it, which trips people up, but hopefully that helps a bit as it did for me.
you choose one there is a 33% chance you were right and a 66% chance you were wrong, now they open 1 and you choose the other, this leaves you a 66% chance you were wrong with the 1st pick, something like that
the idea is youre supposed to switch, so if you switch after one door is revealed youre in essence getting two picks (hence the 66% chance) because of the updated info after one door is revealed.
not helping this is the explanations are typically verbose as mine was. for me, the extreme example of 100 doors helped me comprehend it better.
I can tell you i been booted from more books by playing 4 team teasers than beating the line 70% of time. I have intrest in 2 books - so the same for the other side. Dont remember where these came from but the math checks -
2 team -110 +ev 0.0025 ish 54ish win%
(Dont remember all this exactly)
3 team +180 +ev 0.1200 ish 40ish win%
4team +300 +ev 0.16ish 30ish win%
If your total player rating anywhere near the 3 and 4 team agv we watching your plays and moving accordingly.
Btw im no mathematician or expert in ANYTHING lol...i do think im a jack in a few trades tho.
To calculate that you convert to a percentage and take the Xth root where X is the number of legs. so -110 is 110/(110+100) = 110/210 = .5238, and the square root of .524 is .724, which means 72.4% per individual leg is the same as a 2 teamer at -110. +180 is 100/(180+100) =100/280 = .357 and the cubed root of .357 is .709, which means 70.9% per individual leg is the same as a 3 teamer at +180. 4 team +300 is a bit better than that one too. (70.7%), those will obviously have much higher variance and harder to find on one weekend.
listen , what you did yesterday has no bearing on what you do today, my baseball over the last week hasnt been great , lost a lot of close last inning games , it will change.
keep plugging dude
listen , what you did yesterday has no bearing on what you do today, my baseball over the last week hasnt been great , lost a lot of close last inning games , it will change.
keep plugging dude
oh I care more about line accuracy on my projected lines and CLV. I am fine losing 4 in a row sucks but I am way up on the season in the WNBA.
Comments
Padres -130 Lucchesi
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I am here trying to learn and get feedback, wins and losses are not things I am interested in getting feedback on. I am interested in what people think of my projected lines, bet at lines and other opinions or things I share
- - - Updated - - -
just for you I will fine tune my MLB and post some projected lines for a few days before lines come out so I can see how I actually do!
- - - Updated - - -
Thank you though Donny, I just caught an error I had of a scrape it was scraping pitchers 2018 NPERA and not 2019, thanks for the criticism it made me check closer and that helped me thank you
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
<tbody>
8/13
Max Fried
Braves
-140
8/13
Mike Clevinger
Indians
127
8/13
Matthew Boyd
Tigers
-140
8/13
Ivan Nova
White Sox
244
8/13
Chase Anderson
Brewers
108
8/13
Glenn Sparkman
Royals
164
8/13
Madison Bumgarner
Giants
-114
8/13
Eric Lauer
Padres
122
</tbody>
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8-13 WNBA Projected Lines
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<tbody>
Date
City
Teams
Mine
8/13
Minn
Lynx
-4
8/13
New
Liberty
155.5
8/13
Atla
Dream
151.5
8/13
Las
Aces
-12
</tbody>
CFL
BC Lions +12
Stampeders -5
Lions Over 51
got a couple games off now
I would bet
Rays -108
Red Sox +105
Twins +112
one model says they should be -149
my lineups model says they should be -150
I know how much i should be , do you ?
- - - Updated - - -
BET , not be lol
I am not in good shape on that game I got the Indians as favorites in that game, so whats that tell you, yeah I am way off on that one.
- - - Updated - - -
I think I am getting closer on the model. I will keep working on it, Donny got me going and now I am on a MLB mission, I usually just pass up the MLB cause I never have done well with it and I dont know if the changes I am making will help but I am gonna give it hell.
Rays Currently at -118
Red Sox Currently at -111
that is good stuff, now if
A the lines hold up
B I can repeat that process a zillion times, should be good to go!
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now of course the limits I found when I would have made those bets were about 2500-3k on the exchanges
you have 3 closed doors
why do you now have a 66.6% chance of winning if and only if you switch doors, how is it not 50-50 now that you have 2 doors left and only 1 has a car?
I will not go into the entire reasoning to change the door originally picked, but if you google Monty Hall Problem there are several explanations on line that will answer your question. This question came to the forefront back in 1990, when Marilyn Vos Savant answered the question in the Parade Sunday paper supplement. It does seem counterintuitive to think that changing your original door pick, after 1 door was eliminated, would give you a 66.67% chance of winning instead of a 50% chance, but it has been proven by computer simulation to be true.
finally something i can help with.
i had trouble with this one, too. how i was able to understand it is this:
lets say instead of 3 doors, you have 100 doors. you select door 1 and they open 2-99 and they are all empty. it seems much more likely that the other door, door 100, is the one that holds the car given youve eliminated 98 possibilities vs. when you selected your door and there were 100 possibilities. obviously there is an absolute truth that door X holds the car behind it, which trips people up, but hopefully that helps a bit as it did for me.
not helping this is the explanations are typically verbose as mine was. for me, the extreme example of 100 doors helped me comprehend it better.
8-13 Dream Under 154.5
To calculate that you convert to a percentage and take the Xth root where X is the number of legs. so -110 is 110/(110+100) = 110/210 = .5238, and the square root of .524 is .724, which means 72.4% per individual leg is the same as a 2 teamer at -110. +180 is 100/(180+100) =100/280 = .357 and the cubed root of .357 is .709, which means 70.9% per individual leg is the same as a 3 teamer at +180. 4 team +300 is a bit better than that one too. (70.7%), those will obviously have much higher variance and harder to find on one weekend.
good hit,my bet went a little bit over, can you say NBA scores, i went 0-4 last 4. I hope it picks up soon
<colgroup><col style="width: 43px"><col width="42"><col width="83"><col width="50"></colgroup><tbody>
Date
City
Teams
Mine
8/14
Los
Sparks
-5.5
8/14
Dall
Wings
148
8/14
Seat
Storm
159
8/14
Wash
Mystics
-9.5
8/14
Conn
Sun
-1
8/14
Phoe
Mercury
154.5
</tbody>
keep plugging dude
oh I care more about line accuracy on my projected lines and CLV. I am fine losing 4 in a row sucks but I am way up on the season in the WNBA.
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<tbody>
8/15
Caleb Smith
Marlins
219
8/15
Drew Smyly
Phillies
120
8/15
Sonny Gray
Reds
-157
8/15
Marcus Stroman
Mets
-146
8/15
Alex Young
Diamondbacks
-123
8/15
Andrew Heaney
Angels
-202
8/15
Mike Fiers
Athletics
-136
</tbody>
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I wrote Stroman but I meant Teheran -146 just to clarify