no idea really, I dont usually keep track of posted plays
2018 on actual bets I made here is my record, I wont have a 19 record until the season is over because I have to move all data over to my records file. My currently line value on 2019 is 2.67% above margin
one of the biggest mistakes I made in 2018 was I was waiting for huge differences and hence the 60% if I would have bet on smaller margins I probably would have won more money and had a lower win%
- - - Updated - - -
also in 18 I avg about 300 a bet and in 19 I have been around 1500 but ended up with a lower CLV because I am betting at some spots with not the best of the lines
QUOTE! "Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
Rockies (at +131 or 2.31) vs Cards
This pick is based on "The Stingy Pitchers" betting angle:
"Suppose a team wins 2 straight games, while allowing just 0 or 1 run in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing on the road and their money line is 2.50 or less."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +26.54 units from 375 bets (ROI = 7.1%)
In 2019: -4.63 units from 20 bets
Since St. Louis has won its previous two meetings by 2-0 and 10-1 scores, we are betting against them.
Best of luck!
Professor MJ"
QUOTE!
I am super curious how do you make this to be a value bet?
let me give you an example
you are saying because the last 2 pitchers had great games this means the next pitcher will have a bad game? and if that is correct why is that asking the professor?
or not even just the professor anyone if they can answer how the last 2 pitchers performances or other teams lack of bats is somehow relevant to todays game, please fill me in because I am completely clueless on that.
I think both of them have a chance and if I can find any good -2 or -3 lines on Sparks, I would like to get those at +150ish or so but have not found any yet.
I think sure there are plenty of ways to find data that can point to something that has lots of records and looks +ROI
data mining could be done in roulette as well, it is the exact same thing
you take 1000 spins and you can find tons of patterns
things like RED, RED, BLACK, RED and 61% of the time the next spin is RED, these are facts but it does not change the true probability of the next spin of 50-50 -the green of course
there are two ways to win
1 have more info or better info than the entire market
2 beat the closing line in an efficient market
because the red sox won 5 games in a row and are playing a team that lost 2 in a row if and a big IF that data has any value it is included in the line.
in the super bowl or major super games sure bias can have influence over math but a Wednesday Reds Reg season game very little opportunity for the market to get influenced enough to move the market enough to take the number far enough away from the VIG.
Wednesday afternoon game gets
some local action (mostly square)
national action (mostly square using it in a parlay)
and some semi sharp wannabe action
and a big bunch of sharp action IF the line gets far enough off
so if you say the Reds opponent won 9 straight and the Reds lost 3 straight so the line will be moved because of this enough to create an opportunity to overcome the vig, I think that happening is a rarity.
two ways to win
be better than the market (very very few 1 in a billion can do this)
beat the line (very few 1 in 1000 can do this)
and you have to do it enough times to overcome variance as well
Professors 1 pick a day gives him 350 picks a year that is not enough to know anything for 10-20 years with certainty
the hardest thing about telling or getting someone to understand this is the "I did it, so I know"
there is a good chance a guy can do this with success for a few 100 games no problem but eventually the juice will get him and once he has done it a few hundred times, he believes he has irrefutable evidence that this can be done and it is nearly impossible to convince him otherwise.
I got a buddy who plays big fave parlays and he wins often of course they are big fave parlays, he does not care about line value or that the bets are -EV because he wins, this is short term eventually they will catch up to him and he will pay the juice but he will laugh at anyone who says his plays are not + because he has evidence on a few 100 that he is a winner, no mind changing, he believes he has found the holy grail by peaking at oddshark for 5 minutes and picking big faves in a 3 or 4 team parlay
you would end up 50-50 if you played that situation over and over 1000s of times, that is the way the system is designed.
factors of those previous wins and losses play into the line but very little is based on that one game.
for the Professor we are talking about baseball where team A is really not team A tomorrow in football barring major injuries teams dont change much week to week.
Mets and Degrom are a very different team than Mets with most other starters
Mets avg line in 19 is -127
Mets with Degrom in 19 are -175
There was a guy that tracked angles like ProfessorMJ is using and the system was called the Buckeye Database. The database apparently produced winners when the angles were followed. I would not bet them but I cannot say that those types of angles cannot be quantified and bet successfully. The only way to find out is to follow someone using such a system.
you would end up 50-50 if you played that situation over and over 1000s of times, that is the way the system is designed.
factors of those previous wins and losses play into the line but very little is based on that one game.
for the Professor we are talking about baseball where team A is really not team A tomorrow in football barring major injuries teams dont change much week to week.
Mets and Degrom are a very different team than Mets with most other starters
Mets avg line in 19 is -127
Mets with Degrom in 19 are -175
Actually you would probably win about 54% of the time if you were any good at it. There are winners and there are losers. The winners win and the losers lose.
LOL we are hoping the use a different starter today
The better question is what are his chances of pitching up to par following a complete game perfect game. They are not going to be as good as average most likely. If you like the mathup next time out, that is a good reason to bet it.
This is the reason that there will always be value in the betting market. Because you will drive that number down 100% of the time and create value for someone that is not betting strictly off the numbers.
This is the reason that there will always be value in the betting market. Because you will drive that number down 100% of the time and create value for someone that is not betting strictly off the numbers.
but the market has proven efficient so there is no value at the end, its all juice
only way to get value is to get in after I bet and choose wrong and move the line the wrong way enough to cover vig and then you can jump in and squeeze out a profit.
sure a game here or there can be not efficient because some drunk guy bets a thousand times on the same game or a math nerd crunches the numbers wrong and sends the line tail spinning but reality these major market lines are pretty good.
books move lines not to attract bettors on the other side but its to suck up action that is already there on exchanges
if a book gets 100k raiders ML and they have zero on the other side and their acceptable limit on this game is 60, they will dump the line a dime and automatically get all the action on the other side up to a certain risk point and usually bounce the number right back up. late movements are not sharp adjusts they are clean ups. Books are at a disadvantage in that they have to keep the bettors on their site or book so they got to take action even if they have to dump it off free, they cant afford to not have the bet available because bettors will go somewhere else. rarely are lines wrong
No, there is not value on the average. If you bet an underdog and the line moves against you two points and the underdog wins outright, you were most likely right. If you can do that 3 times out of 100, you are a winning gambler.
line is at -110 and they are getting too fat beyond the acceptable limit they dont want to turn the game off and lose that bettor they just eat it and move the line a dime and this causes instant force plays on exchanges and they get their liability covered at a very low cost.
say a book has at an exchange -110 and there are a few smaller market makers at -109
that puts -110 on and -110 against
now if they flash +100 and -120 magic they just filled all the orders they need in that flash to bring liability on that game back down to what they can accept at a very low cost.
you can see here they dropped it enough to get a move from smaller makers and then bam hit it right back to take all those small chunks up and reduce liability on the big favorite but the line never really moved much off the number overall just a big enough dip to get market maker moves and bam right back to sweep that all up to reduce liability. look at that image at about 1945
No, there is not value on the average. If you bet an underdog and the line moves against you two points and the underdog wins outright, you were most likely right. If you can do that 3 times out of 100, you are a winning gambler.
if the line moved against you, you dont have line value or market confirmation, bad bet unless you knew something the entire betting consensus did not
line is at -110 and they are getting too fat beyond the acceptable limit they dont want to turn the game off and lose that bettor they just eat it and move the line a dime and this causes instant force plays on exchanges and they get their liability covered at a very low cost.
say a book has at an exchange -110 and there are a few smaller market makers at -109
that puts -110 on and -110 against
now if they flash +100 and -120 magic they just filled all the orders they need in that flash to bring liability on that game back down to what they can accept at a very low cost.
you can see here they dropped it enough to get a move from smaller makers and then bam hit it right back to take all those small chunks up and reduce liability on the big favorite but the line never really moved much off the number overall just a big enough dip to get market maker moves and bam right back to sweep that all up to reduce liability. look at that image at about 1945
Books limit winning gamblers for a reason. There are people that are very good at figuring out value and they win. If you let them bet what they want, they will own the company.
There are bank owners and there are bank robbers. Bank owners are smarter than the bank robbers but they are not half as clever. The bank robber winds up with all the money.
books never take more liability than they want on a particular game. only retail books limit customers most market makers do not limit anyone up until the bet size is bigger than they can layoff on an exchange and that number is very big!
books never take more liability than they want on a particular game. only retail books limit customers most market makers do not limit anyone up until the bet size is bigger than they can layoff on an exchange and that number is very big!
No, they will not let you bet as much as you want. There are bets that are worth backing up the truck on. They will not let you because they know how it works out in the end.
Comments
2018 on actual bets I made here is my record, I wont have a 19 record until the season is over because I have to move all data over to my records file. My currently line value on 2019 is 2.67% above margin
https://i.imgur.com/fRc1MkJ.png
- - - Updated - - -
one of the biggest mistakes I made in 2018 was I was waiting for huge differences and hence the 60% if I would have bet on smaller margins I probably would have won more money and had a lower win%
- - - Updated - - -
also in 18 I avg about 300 a bet and in 19 I have been around 1500 but ended up with a lower CLV because I am betting at some spots with not the best of the lines
QUOTE!
"Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
Rockies (at +131 or 2.31) vs Cards
This pick is based on "The Stingy Pitchers" betting angle:
"Suppose a team wins 2 straight games, while allowing just 0 or 1 run in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing on the road and their money line is 2.50 or less."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +26.54 units from 375 bets (ROI = 7.1%)
In 2019: -4.63 units from 20 bets
Since St. Louis has won its previous two meetings by 2-0 and 10-1 scores, we are betting against them.
Best of luck!
Professor MJ"
QUOTE!
I am super curious how do you make this to be a value bet?
let me give you an example
you are saying because the last 2 pitchers had great games this means the next pitcher will have a bad game? and if that is correct why is that asking the professor?
https://fairlay.com/market/will-jambospicks-com-be-up-units-on-the-week-package-starting-9-17/?referral=a599f4d5-c046-47db-a630-0fc0bcf2211f
https://fairlay.com/market/tampa-bay-buccaneers-carolina-panthers-13/?referral=a599f4d5-c046-47db-a630-0fc0bcf2211f
leaning ott +5,5 and ham +7
thoughts ??
the forum is kinda dead right now so I have not been visiting much. I tried to start a convo with Professor but he never replied!
I think both of them have a chance and if I can find any good -2 or -3 lines on Sparks, I would like to get those at +150ish or so but have not found any yet.
- - - Updated - - -
BET
Vegas +425
Sparks +105
conn -4.50
was -6.97
my lines, luck
conn -4.50
was -6.97
my lines, luck
conn -6.73
was -7.25
what you think dan
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
<colgroup><col style="width: 42px"><col width="83"><col width="50"></colgroup><tbody>
Los
Sparks
163.5
Conn
Sun
-0.5
Las
Aces
173.5
Wash
Mystics
-8.5
</tbody>
Aces Under 176.5
I have no idea still what an angle is
what professor is doing is 100% data mining.
I think sure there are plenty of ways to find data that can point to something that has lots of records and looks +ROI
data mining could be done in roulette as well, it is the exact same thing
you take 1000 spins and you can find tons of patterns
things like RED, RED, BLACK, RED and 61% of the time the next spin is RED, these are facts but it does not change the true probability of the next spin of 50-50 -the green of course
there are two ways to win
1 have more info or better info than the entire market
2 beat the closing line in an efficient market
because the red sox won 5 games in a row and are playing a team that lost 2 in a row if and a big IF that data has any value it is included in the line.
in the super bowl or major super games sure bias can have influence over math but a Wednesday Reds Reg season game very little opportunity for the market to get influenced enough to move the market enough to take the number far enough away from the VIG.
Wednesday afternoon game gets
some local action (mostly square)
national action (mostly square using it in a parlay)
and some semi sharp wannabe action
and a big bunch of sharp action IF the line gets far enough off
so if you say the Reds opponent won 9 straight and the Reds lost 3 straight so the line will be moved because of this enough to create an opportunity to overcome the vig, I think that happening is a rarity.
two ways to win
be better than the market (very very few 1 in a billion can do this)
beat the line (very few 1 in 1000 can do this)
and you have to do it enough times to overcome variance as well
Professors 1 pick a day gives him 350 picks a year that is not enough to know anything for 10-20 years with certainty
the hardest thing about telling or getting someone to understand this is the "I did it, so I know"
there is a good chance a guy can do this with success for a few 100 games no problem but eventually the juice will get him and once he has done it a few hundred times, he believes he has irrefutable evidence that this can be done and it is nearly impossible to convince him otherwise.
I got a buddy who plays big fave parlays and he wins often of course they are big fave parlays, he does not care about line value or that the bets are -EV because he wins, this is short term eventually they will catch up to him and he will pay the juice but he will laugh at anyone who says his plays are not + because he has evidence on a few 100 that he is a winner, no mind changing, he believes he has found the holy grail by peaking at oddshark for 5 minutes and picking big faves in a 3 or 4 team parlay
I did not bet it because Kentucky had a tough loss to Florida in a game they could have won and Mississippi State got kicked by Kansas State.
Now Kentucky is going on the road to face Mississippi State coming off a bad loss. That is a really bad situation. Mississippi State won easily.
Was it because of the angle? We do not know.
But if I had the chance to bet the game again this week, I would bet Kentucky.
factors of those previous wins and losses play into the line but very little is based on that one game.
for the Professor we are talking about baseball where team A is really not team A tomorrow in football barring major injuries teams dont change much week to week.
Mets and Degrom are a very different team than Mets with most other starters
Mets avg line in 19 is -127
Mets with Degrom in 19 are -175
- - - Updated - - -
Actually you would probably win about 54% of the time if you were any good at it. There are winners and there are losers. The winners win and the losers lose.
if Degrom pitched a CG NH yesterday does that have any significant influence on todays mets game?
Yes, he will have a tired arm and a hangover. Bet big the other way.
LOL we are hoping the use a different starter today
The better question is what are his chances of pitching up to par following a complete game perfect game. They are not going to be as good as average most likely. If you like the mathup next time out, that is a good reason to bet it.
but the market has proven efficient so there is no value at the end, its all juice
only way to get value is to get in after I bet and choose wrong and move the line the wrong way enough to cover vig and then you can jump in and squeeze out a profit.
sure a game here or there can be not efficient because some drunk guy bets a thousand times on the same game or a math nerd crunches the numbers wrong and sends the line tail spinning but reality these major market lines are pretty good.
books move lines not to attract bettors on the other side but its to suck up action that is already there on exchanges
if a book gets 100k raiders ML and they have zero on the other side and their acceptable limit on this game is 60, they will dump the line a dime and automatically get all the action on the other side up to a certain risk point and usually bounce the number right back up. late movements are not sharp adjusts they are clean ups. Books are at a disadvantage in that they have to keep the bettors on their site or book so they got to take action even if they have to dump it off free, they cant afford to not have the bet available because bettors will go somewhere else. rarely are lines wrong
line is at -110 and they are getting too fat beyond the acceptable limit they dont want to turn the game off and lose that bettor they just eat it and move the line a dime and this causes instant force plays on exchanges and they get their liability covered at a very low cost.
say a book has at an exchange -110 and there are a few smaller market makers at -109
that puts -110 on and -110 against
now if they flash +100 and -120 magic they just filled all the orders they need in that flash to bring liability on that game back down to what they can accept at a very low cost.
https://imgur.com/a/MR6CIRA
you can see here they dropped it enough to get a move from smaller makers and then bam hit it right back to take all those small chunks up and reduce liability on the big favorite but the line never really moved much off the number overall just a big enough dip to get market maker moves and bam right back to sweep that all up to reduce liability. look at that image at about 1945
- - - Updated - - -
if the line moved against you, you dont have line value or market confirmation, bad bet unless you knew something the entire betting consensus did not
Books limit winning gamblers for a reason. There are people that are very good at figuring out value and they win. If you let them bet what they want, they will own the company.
No, they will not let you bet as much as you want. There are bets that are worth backing up the truck on. They will not let you because they know how it works out in the end.